Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are for the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Arkle, Active Energy, Cellbx, Ceres, Delta Gold, First Class, Headlam, ITM, Kefi, Kendrick, Panther, Rockfire, Spectra, and Zenith.
The market backdrop remains a mix of cautious optimism in the major indices, a more fragile setup in crypto, and highly stock-specific opportunities across small caps. The key theme running through the charts right now is simple enough: where prices are holding above rising moving averages and RSI is behaving constructively, there is still room for upside. Where those supports are failing, the risk shifts quickly to retests of lower channel floors and prior gaps.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: buy mode still intact
The FTSE 100 has continued to respect the idea that it is in a modest buy phase. The move has not been explosive, but the structure has been encouraging. Price has been consolidating above a rising 50-day moving average, while RSI has been sitting in the mid-50s. That is usually exactly the sort of setup that can precede a break higher.
The near-term breakout level is around 10,335, which ties in with resistance from last month and the 50-day moving average area. If that clears properly, the next upside zone looks like 10,500, with scope for a move towards 10,600 to 10,650 after that.
On a slightly longer view, the best-case scenario by the end of next month is a push towards 10,800, which would take the index up to the top of the rising trend channel in place since October.
Of course, if there is some sudden macro shock, especially geopolitical, then attention shifts to support. In that case, the preferred support area is the floor of the rising channel near 10,020.
DAX: channel support and golden cross hopes
The DAX remains in a rising channel that has been in force since March. Initial resistance comes in around 25,100, marked by a descending red resistance line from January. If that gives way, the door opens to the top of the range and potentially fresh record highs near 26,200 by the end of next month.
The technical backdrop is stronger than it may appear at first glance. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are rising, and the market is moving towards a possible golden cross. That tends to be one of the stronger phases in a chart cycle, assuming price can hold together long enough for the signal to complete.
RSI has also bounced in the upper 50s, which is another bullish tell. For now, the critical support remains the floor of the channel and the 200-day line near 24,100.
Dow: 50,000 is the big line in the sand
For the Dow, the excitement is all about staying on the right side of 50,000. That is the level the market needs to defend to keep the current upside case alive.
RSI has again bounced from above 50, and notably it has not dropped below that neutral mark since early April. That kind of behaviour usually suggests the market is still trending rather than rolling over. The longer the Dow stays above 50,000, the stronger the case becomes for a move towards the November resistance line projection, which now comes in near 53,000 by the end of next month.
If there is a sudden reversal, then the first serious area to watch is the 50-day moving average at 48,200. Ideally, though, price remains within the recent trading band, with support around 48,700.
Bitcoin: support is there, but momentum needs improving
Bitcoin is trying to hold above a rising 50-day moving average, and that is normally a positive leading indicator. As long as that support remains in place, there is still a case for a rebound towards the 200-day moving average at 80,794.
The problem is that momentum is not entirely convincing. A close back below the 50-day line, around 76,425, would increase the risk of a slide back towards the floor of the February channel, just above 69,000.
RSI is the weak point here. It has shown failure below the neutral 50 level, and the prior RSI uptrend has broken. So while price support is still present, the momentum side of the chart has not yet confirmed a cleaner upside turn.
Ethereum: weaker than Bitcoin and vulnerable to another leg lower
Ethereum continues to underperform Bitcoin. It is sitting at the floor of its February channel, roughly around 2,120, and the immediate hope is simply that it can hold around current levels.
If that floor gives way, the next downside target is a retest of the sub-1,950 zone, and potentially even below 1,900. The 50-day moving average is still rising for now, but that support may not remain reliable if weakness persists.
RSI is down at 35. That is weak, but not yet oversold, which suggests there could still be room for another leg down even if it only extends as far as 2,000. On the upside, the most that can reasonably be expected in the near term is a recovery towards the 50-day line at 2,263.
Gold: lacklustre below trend resistance
Gold remains uninspiring in the short term. Price is still trading below the uptrend line from October, which comes in near 4,580. While it remains below that area, the market looks vulnerable to a drift lower.
The preferred support and potential buy-the-dip zone is the 200-day moving average around 4,372. That would be the favoured entry point for anyone not already positioned on the long side.
On any recovery, the near-term cap is the 50-day moving average at 4,669.
Crude oil: weakening overall despite the day-to-day swings
Crude has been choppy, but the broader tone this week has been softer. The market failed at the April resistance line, which was originally near $105 and has now slipped to around $103.
Below that resistance, the risk is a move back towards the $90 area, which may offer support. The 50-day moving average sits around $98.15, and the market has been dancing around that level. If crude can hold above it on a weekly close basis, then there is still a chance of another run back to $103.
If not, then $90 remains the favoured destination, particularly while RSI stays below the neutral 50 line.
Small-cap stock charts
Arkle: steady progress remains the story: Arkle has been climbing steadily since July last year, and the chart still points to the top of the rising trend channel from that period. The target remains as high as 0.9p, potentially by the end of next month or even sooner, especially while the stock stays above its rising 50-day moving average at 0.58p.
Active Energy: data-centre angle helping the rebound: Active Energy is benefiting from being in the right thematic space, and the chart is responding. The shares have bounced from the rising 50-day moving average, as well as from a combination of the 50-day and 200-day lines around 0.09p. The top of the current range points to 0.13p by the end of next month. The rebound has started well, but a push in RSI back above 50 would strengthen the case materially.
Cellbxhealth: second target hit, gap filled: Cellxbio has continued to deliver, reaching the second target and filling the gap towards 1.6p. If the shares can close above 1.6p, the next objective becomes the 200-day moving average just shy of 2p over the next couple of weeks. The key condition is that the stock should remain above the initial May resistance turned support at 1.35p.
Ceres Power: still buzzing: Ceres Power continues to look lively. A series of prior targets has already been met, and a break above the 772p area would imply a fresh leg higher towards 980p, potentially by the end of July. In the meantime, the important support is the floor of the gap at 673p. As long as that gap support remains intact, the chart stays constructive.
Delta Gold: looking for a better entry after the breakdown: Delta Gold has fallen out of its rising trend channel around the 160p area and dropped back to the previous target around 135p. There is still a risk that the stock fills the gap lower towards 115p, and at the moment that looks like the favoured entry point for anyone waiting on a turnaround. Worst case, a deeper retreat could take it down to the 50-day moving average near 96p, but the working assumption is that the gap support around 115p should hold first.
First Class Metals: break above old resistance keeps it on track: First Class Metals is progressing nicely above old April resistance around 2.6p. After looking for around 3.1p, the next target is now closer to 3.8p by the end of next month, possibly sooner if momentum continues to improve.
Headlam: frustrating at the 200-day line, but not dead yet: Headlam has been one of those charts that keeps teasing a breakout without fully delivering it. The expectation had been for a move through the 200-day moving average and then on towards 67p, the top of a broadening triangle from September. There were a couple of attempts, but the shares failed at the 200-day line again. A gap-close buy signal appeared, giving an entry around 38p on the open, with a first move back towards recent resistance at 53p. If the stock can finally manage an end-of-day close above the 200-day moving average, then 67p comes back into play. For now, though, the market probably still expects another failure at that same moving average until proven otherwise.
ITM Power: support at old resistance keeps the £2 target alive: ITM Power has taken longer than some might have hoped, but the broader setup remains constructive. The shares have found support at former April resistance around £1.46, and above that the target remains £2, based on the resistance line projection from this time last year. The hope is still to see that level by the end of next month.
Kefi: near oversold and close to finishing the pullback: Kefi is bouncing around the floor of its range and a mildly descending price channel. The key support lies around or just below 1.01p, with the possibility of a brief overshoot towards 1p. The pullback from recent highs near 1.6p looks close to exhaustion, with RSI in the low 30s and edging towards oversold territory. More cautious traders may want to wait for an end-of-day close above recent resistance through 1.2p, or even a recovery above old April support near 1.25p, before assuming the correction is over.
Kendrick: above 8p, the 12p call remains in place: The standing view on Kendrick has been straightforward: above 8p, look for 12p. What is encouraging now is that the shares have managed to hold above the previous target near 5.6p. That leaves the path open first to 8p, then to 12p to 12.5p against the resistance line from March by the end of next month. Because this stock can move quickly once it gets going, the preferred setup is for support to hold near 8p. For anyone not already involved, that may be the level to think about.
Panther Metals: £1.80 remains the near-term objective: Panther Metals still looks geared towards the next chart target at £1.80 by the end of next month. The previous target around £1.30 has already been met, and the key now is to stay above £1.20 to preserve the bullish structure.
Rockfire: breakout attempt following a strong presentation: Rockfire has started to break above recent resistance around 0.14p. The chart still points towards 0.21p, which may be ambitious for the end of next month but remains a valid upside target if momentum builds. The technical condition to watch is simple: more end-of-day closes above the 50-day line this month should set the shares up for a decent move into next month. Ideally, the stock also stays above 0.14p as much as possible.
Spectra Systems: a more convincing 200-day breakout: Spectra Systems is one of the cleaner turnaround charts in the batch. Unlike some others that have repeatedly failed at the 200-day moving average, this one has broken through it convincingly. Recent resistance around £1.67 has been cleared, and the target is now £2 by the end of next month. The setup looks stronger because the stock has repeatedly found support above the rising 50-day moving average over the past month, which is usually a sign that buyers are stepping in consistently.
Zenith: regrouping above channel support: Zenith is trying to regroup after the recent rig sale news, worth around $4 million. The chart shows the shares bouncing from the floor of a rising trend channel in place since late February. That support sits near 6p. As long as 6p holds, the upside target remains the top of the channel near 11p by the end of next month. More cautious traders may prefer to wait for an end-of-day close through the 50-day moving average at 7p before assuming the move is properly under way.
The underlying technical picture is still encouraging, with both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages rising.
What matters most from here
There is no shortage of interesting chart setups around at the moment, but the recurring theme is that support must hold. Across the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow and a number of the small caps, rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages are still doing the heavy lifting. That keeps the upside case alive.
On the other hand, crypto remains more mixed, with Bitcoin trying to stabilise while Ethereum still looks distinctly vulnerable. Gold is waiting for a proper dip-buying opportunity, and crude oil needs to prove it can hold around its 50-day line if it is going to avoid a deeper retreat.
For now, it remains a market where the technicals are giving plenty of opportunities, provided the key levels are respected and the chart structure is allowed to do its job.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
