I’m wondering if we will have some volatility in the market this week!? French elections are pointing to a right-wing majority in parliament. UK polls predict the UK is heading towards a Labour government. Plenty of room to express this in EURGBP which as of Monday 1 July is creeping higher.
As usual for the first week of the month, there are some important data releases from the US. On Monday we received ISM Manufacturing PMI which is forecast to print slightly higher at 49 for June. This follows on from German preliminary inflation numbers for June which are expected to drop to 2.3%. (An article in this weekend’s FT suggested that the European Football competition, Taylor Swift concerts and the Olympic Games may keep Eurozone inflation from falling this summer.)
Tuesday starts with the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes. The main release is Euro area Core inflation expected at 2.8% y.o.y for June. Both ECB President, Lagarde and Fed Chair, Powell will speak in the afternoon. Wednesday’s main event is ISM Services PMI which is expected to drop in June to 52.5 from May’s 53.8. FOMC minutes are scheduled to be released in the evening.
Thursday is UK election day, ECB MPC meeting minutes are released and it is a public holiday in the US. On Friday we have both US and Canadian employment numbers. Non-farm payrolls are expected to post 180k new jobs for June with the unemployment rate steady at 4%. Canadian payrolls are expected to post 25K new jobs with the unemployment rate creeping up to 6.3% for June.
Good Luck and Good trading!
Ben Robson is Head of Institutional E-FX at Swiss Finance Corporation. He is also the Amazon Best Selling Author of Currency Kings – How Billion traders Made their Fortune Trading Forex. McGraw Hill 2017
