Western societies are committing to the electrification and provision of electricity, but not actually providing it.
The cracks are beginning to show. Two weeks ago, Toyota’s president, Akio Toyoda, committed an astonishing heresy. He spoke out for the thoughts and feelings of the “silent majority”, in the auto industry.
“The silent majority is wondering if electric vehicles are OK to be a single option. He said that they believe it’s currently so they don’t have to speak loudly.”
Toyoda spoke bravely beside the new Toyota concept electric cars. However, his words may have caused a more serious fissure than he had imagined.
I generally make it a rule not to drink on electric cars, regardless of how satisfied or smug, their owners are. Not because hydrogen, which is the politically correct alternative, is more difficult to implement, but because car owners all have the same enemy. The bureaucrat is attacking the car, whose eyes are giddy at the idea of imposing a “15-minute city” or a low-traffic neighbourhood on their territory.
These millennials who are not children can only imagine their urban paradises on a bicycle or scooter. This isn’t an option beyond London’s Zone 3 where a car is required for work.
The indicators for the EV market are flashing red. It is becoming apparent that there are fewer people who can become happy EV owners than ever before.
You must check many boxes to become an EV owner. An EV is becoming more expensive and taxpayer-funded sweeteners are disappearing. This means that you will need to have a lot of disposable income. Because the public charging network is not reliable and costly, you will need to be in a position to charge your vehicle from your driveway. Your journeys will be predictable, and your long journeys can be planned easily.
This is unacceptable for the entire freight industry, where short turnaround times and limited ranges can spell commercial suicide. Petrol and diesel are superior consumer technologies due to their high energy density, low cost, and efficient fuel network. This was simply what Mr Aiko meant.
Autotrader’s most recent EV market survey found that the price for EVs has risen by 36% compared to a year ago. The supply of used electric cars is outpacing the demand for the first-ever time. According to the site’s analysts, EVs account for only 3% of all inquiries sent to retailers. The site also reports that there is a shrinking pool of potential buyers with their own charging stations. It concludes that “Although the current sales figures are positive, the rapid decline of consumer appetite for electric cars shows the market is on thin Ice where mass electric adoption is concerned.”
Despite having 36,000 charging stations, the US is not encouraging. The infrastructure falls apart as a result of a slowing down in EV demand. Toyota believes that if EV demand is stalled, the majority of its products, which were designed today, will not be as competitive in 2030.
The real problem Mr Toyoda raised is that Western societies are attempting to electrify transport and heating, but not actually providing electricity. This cannot be ignored.
Anne-Marie Trevelyan (then secretary of state for trade) told Parliament in January that we would need up to four times the electricity to meet our demand for electric heating and transport. We aren’t building four times the electric generation capacity.
The Conservative’s energy legacy will be the loss of reliable energy. Two years ago, the UK had 15 operating nuclear reactors. By 2030, it will only have three. This is assuming that there are no delays. We have two energy systems, one that works and the other that doesn’t. This is the reality. The politicised grid mixes them together, rendering the one that produces reliable and cheap energy unstable and expensive.
Then comes a real cold snap, which exposes our dependence on nature and subprime energy technologies. If climate change campaigners are inclined to see any weather event as a personal message from an Earth deity, they should be aware that this trick can work both ways.
Our dunkelflaute was a period of low pressure, freezing temperatures, and no wind. For three weeks our onshore wind turbines remained stationary. They consumed power but did not generate any. We got very little wind power from our onshore facilities.
To get to the best stuff below, the Germans have bulldozed wind farms to build them: Germany’s coal use is up by 13% in 2022. However, over there the industrialists, manufacturers and policy-makers have more power, while the Oxford PPE-dominated Whitehall classes are united in their groupthink and protected from the consequences.
They should be concerned, along with the City spivs and the broadcast media, who are all trying to sell us the myth of a “great green transition to energy”
They have come a long way with magical thinking, but that is only the beginning.
