Copper rises to new all-time high as metal continues to drain out of Europe and China into the US
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
80 Mile* (80M LN) – Agreed indicative terms for an all-share acquisition of 80 Mile by Greenland Energy
GreenRoc Strategic Materials (GROC LN) – Phase III drilling extends Amitsoq north as von der Leyen names the project
Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) BUY, Target 72p – CLOCK FOR PDF– Outstanding financial metrics on Monazite recovery from tailings stream at Kasiya Critical Minerals Project in Malawi
Sun Peak Metals (PEAK CN) – Maiden Safra drilling returned 39m at 1.38% Cu and 0.84% Zn
Copper ($14,712/t) – Copper rises to new all-time high as metal continues to drain out of Europe and China into the US
- Copper hit an Intraday high $14,779/t with a Closing price $14,708/t following four days of gains.
- China imported 382,000t in August, its weakest August in six years, with Jan-Aug down 6.7% yoy.
- COMEX stocks are at a record 695,624t, vs LME and Shanghai together at just over 300,000t.
- Chile’s Collahuasi is restarting its mothballed SX-EW plant, targeting 6,000t of cathode next year.
- SX-EW leaches copper straight into metal on site, skipping the smelter.
- The trade-off is that it needs a lot of sulphuric acid, which has been expensive since the Middle East war.
- Capstone is ramping oxide leaching back up at Mantoverde in Chile, as copper’s 45% rise over the past year covers that bill.
Lithium – Data revision prompts 14% fall in Chinese prices in three days
- Shanghai Metal Market more than doubled its estimate of Chinese lithium stocks to 175,000t.
- The change came from a wider sample, not from any change in the market.
- Lithium carbonate contracts in China fell >14% over three days.
- A petition is circulating among traders calling for regulators to look into it.
- Albemarle, the world’s top lithium supplier, reached a preliminary wage deal in Chile, averting the strike due this week.
- It takes lithium from brine at the Salar de Atacama and processes it at La Negra in Antofagasta.
Tin ($54,950/t) – Indonesian exports recover but remain 15% below last year
- Indonesia’s refined exports rose 20.4% yoy to 4,564.53t in July as more smelters won licences.
- Cumulative shipments are still 15% below last year, so world output is unlikely to grow (ITA).
- Malaysia Smelting stopped mining on 12 August after rain damaged its drainage ponds.
- Tin hit a record $59,040/t in June and has since pulled back, though it remains >35% higher this year
Iron Ore ($100.2/t) – China tells mills to pause on Rio Tinto’s Pilbara Blend
- China’s state buyer CMRG has told some steel mills to stop buying Pilbara Blend while contract talks run (Bloomberg).
- CMRG buys iron ore for the whole country, set up in 2022 to turn China’s size into power over the price.
- China provided nearly 60% of Rio’s revenue last year.
- CMRG has done this before, with BHP settling after a months-long standoff.
- Fortescue’s sales to China are still curbed while its own talks continue.
Critical Minerals – EU strategic projects call for urgent funding
- 23 of the 60 EU-picked projects signed an urgent call to action last month (Reuters).
- They say some face immediate jeopardy without cash, especially those nearing a build decision.
- The European Commission says it has mobilised €1.7bn since December, against nearly $40bn approved in the US.
- France’s Viridian Lithium collapsed in March, its former commercial chief blaming the lack of EU money.
Rare Earths – Solvay is in talks with One Investment Management (OneIM) over a potential strategic partnership for its rare earths business
- OneIM, run by former SoftBank executive Rajeev Misra, and Solway are reported to have had talks since March, Reuters writes.
- “In response to recent rumours … Solvay confirms that it is currently engaged in discussions regarding a potential strategic partnership with OneIM regarding its rare earths business,” the company confirmed.
- Rare earths unit includes a separation La Rochelle plant in France making it one of the only such facilities ex China.
- Specialty Chemicals division that includes both rare earths and fluorine accounted for 15% of €4.3bn sales last year.
- OneIM was a cornerstone investor in Viridis Mining and Minerals in the latest fundraising committing up to $75m for ionic clay project development.
- Viridis has a strategic partnership with Solvay supplying feedstock for its separation facilities.
- OneIM has also invested in privately into permanent magnet manufacturers including $200m in Noveon Magnetics in January and an undisclosed amount in Vulcan Elements in August.
- OneIM manages $11.8bn in assets.
| Dow Jones Industrials | -1.18% | at | 52,786 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.19% | at | 65,143 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.33% | at | 25,235 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.28% | at | 3,952 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +0.6 | at | 4.79 |
Currencies
US$1.1644/eur vs 1.1618/eur previous. Yen 153.19/$ vs 153.90/$. SAr 15.992/$ vs 16.039/$. $1.357/gbp vs $1.354/gbp. 0.724/aud vs 0.722/aud. CNY 6.707/$ vs 6.712/$.
Dollar Index 98.68 vs 98.87 previous.
Economics
US/Iran – Brent hit US$100 for the first time since July on escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.
- US forces reported to have hit five Iranian crude oil tankers.
- The attack was in retaliation for the IRGC targeting an American warship with ballistic missiles twice over the last two days.
- The IRGC said it also carried out ballistic missile strikes on the US Al-Azraq air base in Jordan.
China – Inflation accelerated for the first time since April and factory gate prices climbed more than expected.
- Energy prices and some food costs are contributing to the inflation, with prices for fresh vegetables, eggs and pork rising in monthly terms.
- CPI YoY (Aug / Jul / Est): 0.8% / 0.5% / 0.8%
- CPI Core YoY (Aug / Jul / Est): 1.0% / 0.9% / 0.9%
- PPI YoY (Aug / Jul / Est): 3.8% / 3.5% / 3.6%
China CPI fell to 0.8% yoy in August vs 0.5% in July
- Core CPI exc. food and energy fell to 1.0% y/y.
- Food prices continued to fall -1.4% y/y, inc. a 11.8% fall in pork prices
- Non-food prices rose 1.2%.
- Transport fuel prices leapt 8.3% y/y and 6.6% m/m.
- PPI rose 3.8% yoy and 0.4% mom
- Industrial purchasing prices rose faster at 5.8% yoy.
- Production-material prices also jumped 5.0% yoy
- Mining at 17.8%,
- Raw materials at 6.7%
- Processing at 3.1%.
- Commodity-related inputs were particularly strong:
- Non-ferrous metals and wires jumped a massive 19.8%,
- Fuel and power 9.8%,
- Chemical raw materials 9.5%.
- Consumer-goods producer prices fell 0.5% yoy
- We can now see more clearly why China is holding back from stimulating consumer demand as it moves to contain the impact of Producer Price Inflation led by underlying rises in raw material and commodity prices.
- The impact of supporting the ongoing expansion of higher-value exports and manufacturing activity is leading to price rises throughout the production pipeline threatening the potential for runaway inflation.
- Holding back domestic consumer demand will help to mitigate the inflationary impact within China but not overseas. Well done to China’s state planners, yet again!
Japan – The yen continued to strengthen advancing to 153.6 as Treasury Secretary challenged traders to test government interventions.
- “I am the house now, so when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do,” Bessent said.
- “And you can bet against me if you want.”
Indonesia – Five airports reopen following Krakatau erruption
- The volcano suffers regular eruptions of varying scale.
- Volcanic ash reached 6,000m on the Java side and 15,000m on the Sumatra side.
- The Krakatau eruption in 1883 is estimated to have cooled the earth by around 0.6C due with a cloud of sulphur dioxide and ash blocking and reflecting sunlight in the stratosphere.
Iran – Tehran is turning to cryptocurrencies in an effort to sidestep strict foreign currency controls and tightening sanctions.
- The central bank is said to have been encouraging businesses to repatriate funds by whatever means necessary to help sustain struggling economy, FT writes.
- Traders can also exchange foreign currency through the nation’s large open market rather than using state approved rates.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,406/oz vs US$4,403/oz previous
Gold ETFs 99.4moz vs 99.4moz previous
Platinum US$1,856/oz vs US$1,830/oz previous
Palladium US$1,359/oz vs US$1,394/oz previous
Silver US$66.8/oz vs US$66.3/oz previous
Silver ETFs 800.5moz vs 800.1moz previous
Rhodium US$9,575/oz vs US$9,475/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,712/t vs US$14,607/t previous
Aluminium US$3,347/t vs US$3,316/t previous
Nickel US$16,855/t vs US$16,775/t previous
Zinc US$4,046/t vs US$4,011/t previous
Lead US$1,919/t vs US$1,904/t previous
Tin US$54,950/t vs US$55,040/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$99.6/bbl vs US$98.5/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices traded above $100/bbl for the first time since July after the US military destroyed five Iranian crude tankers in retaliation for missile strikes against one of its warships and the Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities.
- European energy prices are now trading above $150/boe as continued escalation in the Middle East heightens concern over persistent supply disruptions, as France’s average nuclear generation fell 1% w/w to 62% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity following environmental constraints during August that reduced monthly output by 8.4% y/y.
Natural Gas €78.5/MWh vs €74.3/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $89.8/lb vs $89.7/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.2/t vs US$101.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$471.0/t vs US$469.7/t
HCC FOB Australia US$276.0/t vs US$273.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$152.3/t vs US$152.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$43,690/t vs US$44,940/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$109,059/t vs US$109,502/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$21,394/t vs US$21,826/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,120/t vs US$2,180/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,070/t vs US$1,070/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,875/mtu vs US$1,825/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,925/mtu vs US$2,995/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$235/lb vs US$235/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vs US$390/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.8/kg vs US$24.8/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$187/t vs US$187/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,806/t vs US$2,806/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,170/t vs US$1,170/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$375.0/t vs US$375.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,255.0/kg vs US$4,255.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$440.0/kg vs US$440.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$33.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
China’s car exports climb 77.5% in August as domestic sales fall for an 11th straight month
- China’s passenger car exports rose 77.5% yoy in August to 894,000 vehicles, while domestic sales fell 23.7% yoy to 1.55m units, marking an 11th consecutive month of decline, according to the China Passenger Car Association.
- Export growth eased somewhat from July’s 88.2% pace.
- NEVs (battery-electric and plug-in hybrid) accounted for 64.7% of domestic sales, even as domestic NEV sales fell 10.1% yoy, a sharper decline than July’s 3.9% drop; NEV exports, by contrast, accelerated to 154.7% growth from 147.8% in July.
- BYD and Geely both set fresh export records in August, with BYD raising its overseas sales target for the second time this year, from 1.5m to as high as 2m units, having already lifted it from 1.3m back in March.
- BYD’s NEV exports totalled 184,000 units in August, while it retained a commanding domestic NEV lead with 233,943 retail sales, more than double second-placed Geely’s 110,560.
- Chinese regulators issued new guidelines last week warning automakers against frequent or steep overseas price cuts that could damage consumer trust or brand reputation.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 3.2% | -0.1% | Freeport-McMoRan | 5.3% | 1.2% |
| Rio Tinto | 1.9% | 2.5% | Vale | 1.9% | 3.1% |
| Glencore | -0.1% | 5.4% | Newmont Mining | -0.8% | 0.8% |
| Anglo American | -0.1% | 4.0% | Fortescue | 0.5% | 6.0% |
| Antofagasta | -0.5% | 5.5% | Teck Resources | 3.9% | 5.0% |
80 Mile* (80M LN) 0.84p, Mkt Cap £47m – Agreed indicative terms for an all-share acquisition of 80 Mile by Greenland Energy
(80 Mile holds a 30% free carry on the Jameson Land Basin exploration project with GLND earning into 70% through $60m expenditure)
- 80 Mile Plc report the agreement of indicative terms for an all-share offer for the acquisition of 80 Mile by Greenland Energy (GLND N)).
- Terms:
- 0.01108 new Greenland Energy shares for each 80 Mile share
- The Transaction values 80 Mile at ~1.1p/s (£61.48m) based on a Greenland Energy price of $1.37/s.
- The offer represents a 42.86% premium to the 80 Mile price on 3 September.
- Shareholders should note there is no guarantee that any firm offer under the Code will be made for 80 Mile.
- Greenland Energy has rights to earn up to a 70% working interest in approximately 2.1m acres across the Jameson Land Basin from 80 Mile plc by funding the first two exploration wells.
- Independent engineering work has identified gross, unrisked prospective recoverable resources of approximately 13 billion barrels of oil across the basin.
- Greenland Energy raised approximately US$70m in gross proceeds through its April 2026 public offering and, as at 30 June 2026, reported approximately US$37.4m of cash and cash equivalents, US$67.6m of total assets and US$1.4m of total liabilities.
- Greenland Energy has USD 37.4m in cash and cash equivalents as at end-June
- Ferrandina biodiesel facility (Italy):
- Hydrogen Valley (100% owned) recently secured Italian National Sustainability Certification Scheme (INS) and International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) accreditation.
*SP Angel acts as nomad, Rule 3 adviser and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has formerly visited license in Greenland with management.
GreenRoc Strategic Materials (GROC LN) 4.02p, Mkt Cap £12m – Phase III drilling extends Amitsoq north as von der Leyen names the project
- GreenRoc reports preliminary Phase III results from Amitsoq in South Greenland.
- Seven holes are complete from two pads, chasing the graphite layers northwards.
- Pad 3 step-out holes:
- AM_DD_043 hit the Lower Graphite Layer over 21.4m true thickness
- AM_DD_047 hit 13.1m, plus two more mineralised intervals higher up
- AM_DD_044 hit 3.0m and AM_DD_046 hit 2.5m
- AM_DD_045 missed the layer, the only Pad 3 hole to do so
- The results push known graphite 100-150m north of the 2021 and 2022 drilling.
- Assays are pending, and any resource growth needs the Competent Person to sign it off.
- The last two holes slip to October on helicopter availability.
- Groundwater testing is done, feeding the prefeasibility study due by end-2026.
- Von der Leyen named Amitsoq in a speech in Nuuk, announcing a €200m Greenland package covering critical raw materials.
- The EU already funds the EIB advisory work on the project through InvestEU.
- CEO Stefan Bernstein commented: “These results provide valuable geological, geotechnical and hydrogeological data as we advance Amitsoq towards prefeasibility study work.”
Conclusion: A good result. Six of seven holes hit the graphite layer and pushed it 100-150m further north, which points to a bigger resource once assays land.
Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 29p, Mkt cap £175m – Outstanding financial metrics on Monazite recovery from tailings stream at Kasiya Critical Minerals Project in Malawi
(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.2% of Sovereign Metals)
BUY, Target 72p
- Sovereign Metals report results of their latest study on the simple recovery of monazite concentrate from the Kasiya rutile and graphite project in Malawi.
- The Kasiya project was already ‘world class’ with no need for any additional revenue stream.
- But the very simple extraction of monazite through magnetic separation is just too easy and too valuable to ignore.
- The Monazite at Kasiya is particularly rich in heavy and valuable rare earth minerals making it a particularly critical project from a Western perspective.
- The Scoping Study adds to the Kasiya project DFS with the extraction of Monazite having barely any impact on the main project.
- Kasiya DFS key metrics:
- Throughput: 24mtpa
- Rutile 222,000tpa
- Flake graphite: 275ktpa
- Monazite Scoping Study:
- Capex: ~US$29m
- Monazite REC: ~2,626tpa recovered from the rutile tailings stream.
- NPV@8: ~US$722m pre-tax
- IRR: ~151%
- Payback: 18 months.
- Op costs: ~US$0.90/kg REC
- Op margin: ~90%
- EBITDA: ~US$84m
- Pre-tax, unlevered free cash flow of ~US$1.8bn over first 23-year of mine life
- Total Integrated Kasiya NPV of US$2.9bn
- Resource: 524.4mt grading 0.0132% monazite
- Resource 69,000t of monazite in 524.4mt ore grading 0.0132% monazite based on: 3,250 magnetic heavy-mineral composites, representing 1,012 boreholes within the DFS pit areas.
- Incremental costs of recovering the monazite is incredibly low at just ~US$0.90/kg REC at the mine gate.
- Including transport and port charges, the cost is ~US$1.39/kg REC free-on-board FOB Dar es Salaam.
- Including ocean freight and insurance, the total cost is ~US$3.68/kg REC delivered CIF Houston, Texas.
- Sovereign can land REC in America for US$3.85/kg in any market.
- Pricing scenarios:
- Base Case: pre-tax NPV₈ of US$722m, 151% IRR – Argus Media price forecasts (CIF Texas) – $39.45/kg REC with payability of 50% for REC;
- Western Supply Case: US$883m at 172% – reflects higher demand for ex-China supply of monazite concentrate
- US floor price: US$183m pre-tax NPV₈ and a 43% IRR – based on US$110/kg floor price for NdPr and floor prices for heavy rare earths, of US$575/kg for Dy and US$2,050/kg for Tb
- Dysprosium, terbium and yttrium are ~15% of the TREO basket.
- Kasiya delivers 2,626tpa of monazite rare earth concentrate containing 1,485tpa of TREO over an initial 23-year mine life
- Management have further work to do to check the variability and quality in the composition of the monazite within the resource.
- Monazite concentrate needs to be qualified by prospective offtakers and marketed to Western processors.
- This work should enable Sovereign to publish a PFS for integration into the main project DFS next year
- Sovereign DyTb and Yttrium oxide ratios are ~7x higher than at the world’s top five REE producers:
- DyTb 2.5% and Yttrium 11.8% within TREO basket vs. 0.4% DyTb and 1.7% Yttrium across the five largest REE miners
- Up to 3.1% DyTb and 17.2% Yttrium seen in near-surface (0-6m)
- 20.9% NdPr average
Valuation: (See flash note for valuation):
The combined value of the post-tax and risked project is:
- $1,809m at NPV@8 post-tax.
Diluting the stock by 40% to account for a potential stock issue to support the full project financing gives $1.97/s or £1.45/s
While we see substantial value in the Kasiya project particularly with strong demand for monazite we also see some risk to the business relating to offtake pricing, transport issues and government negotiations.
We therefore halve our £145/s value to 72p for the purpose of our 1-year target price range.:
Assumptions: NPV run at at 8% discount rate, US$ GBP rate of 1.35
- Rutile pricing: US$1,670/t
- Graphite pricing: US$1,288/t
Conclusion: Sovereign report the most extraordinary financial returns from the simple recovery and sale of the monazite rare earth stream at the Kasiya project in Malawi.
We have never seen anything close to an NPV of 25 times the capital outlay on a project. This is essentially, enabled by simple addition of a magnetic concentrator into the tailings stream to collect the monazite.
Kasiya should provide five of the seven rare earths under Chinese export controls, for at least 23 years.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals
Sun Peak Metals (PEAK CN) C$0.42, Mkt Cap C$69m – Maiden Safra drilling returned 39m at 1.38% Cu and 0.84% Zn
- The Company released first assay results from the 1,242m maiden drilling programme at the 100% owned Safra VMS Project in Saudi Arabia.
- Seven holes at Safra Main all returned mineralised sulphide intervals with selected intersections including:
- 39.0m at 1.38% Cu, 0.84% Zn from 49m, including 17.75m at 1.60% Cu, 1.58% Zn (SAF26DD008)
- 19.42m at 1.17% Cu, 2.59% Zn, 22.35g/t Ag from 23.6m, including 3m at 3.08% Cu, 11.72% Zn, 57.25g/t Ag (SAF26DD005)
- 8.85m at 1.32% Cu, 6.51% Zn from 40m, including 5.13m at 2.22% Cu, 10.76% Zn (SAF26DD001)
- 6m at 2.86% Cu, 5.70% Zn from 43m, including 3.02m at 4.98% Cu, 10.60% Zn (SAF26DD010)
- Safra Main remains open along strike and at depth.
- Untested gravity anomalies at Safra North and Safra East with the latter representing a parallel trend 1.5km east with gossanous grab samples of up to 1.38% Cu are the priority follow-up targets.
- Three holes testing TDEM conductors at Safra South, 1.5km to the south, returned no significant intervals.
- Drilling at the Halahila VMS Project is complete (13 holes for 2,521m) with results due shortly.
Conclusion: Exciting maiden drilling results with good copper-zinc and associated gold-silver intersections from shallow depths at Safra Main, where seven of seven holes hit sulphide and the system remains open in every direction. Focus now shifts to extending Safra Main along strike and at depth while drill testing the untested gravity anomalies at Safra North and East. Halahila assays are due shortly as the team progresses with its disciplined approach testing high-priority VMS and gold targets across its Saudi portfolio.
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Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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