SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 3rd December 2025

Copper continues to rise as premiums continue to draw physical into the US

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

DPM Metals (DPM CN) – Maiden MRE delivered for Dumitru Potok, Rakita North and Frasen in Serbia

Galileo Resources (GLR LN) – Drilling underway at Molefe, Zambia

Landore Resources (LND LN) – C$1.3m expected from sale of an Ontario project

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) – Team boost for resource definition at Harts Range rare earth prospect

Perseus (PRU AU) – Acquiring Predictive Discovery for $1.4bn

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) – Continuing drilling challenges at the Molaoi zinc project in Greece

URU Metals* (URU LN) – Convertible loan repayment date extended to 31 March

Vale* (VALE US) – Trimming iron ore production on Simandou impact and deal with Glencore to expand copper output in Canada

Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) – Funding for the €2.2bn Phase One secured

Copper ($11,427/t) prices continue to rise as premiums continue to draw physical into the US

• Copper prices have pushed past record highs, up 2.2% this morning at $11,427/t.
• Comex premiums continue to draw physical copper into the US
• Traders are looking forward to the potential for Trump to raise tariffs on physical copper imports next year
• The White House is due to comment on tariffs coming in from 27 January
• Anticipation over the potential for 10-20% tariffs will continue to draw metal into the US leaving Asia and Europe potentially short of physical metal.
• Note: we have not seen a reaction from China’s SRB this morning with ~600,000tons thought to be sitting in US at present.
• The US currently imports around 1mtpa of copper cathodes but should be able to produce more domestically

China locks horns with Antofagasta

• Bloomberg reports Chinese copper smelters have hit a stalemate with Codelco amid annual TCRC benchmark negotiations.
• Chinese smelters are hungry for copper concentrate followings years of overexpansion.
• Copper concentrate supply remains constrained and has been hit by a series of mine disruptions this year out of South America.
• The VP of China Nonferrous Metals stated last week that zero or negative TCRC fees would ‘severely undermine the interest of the global copper smelting industry.’
• The 2025 benchmark was set at $21.25/t and $2.125c/lb, however, Antofagasta and Jinchuan agreed earlier this year to set TCs at zero for 2026 supply.
• Spot TCRCs hit lows at $60/t, with Chinese smelters agreeing to cut copper concentrate intake by 10% in 2026 to balance the market.

Conclusion: Whilst Chinese copper smelters are getting some relief from elevated gold prices, produced as a by-product, negotiations over low TCRC fees reflect a globally constrained supply of copper concentrate. Majors are currently focused on buying rather than building projects following years of CAPEX inflation. This is creating an interesting dynamic for copper, with higher prices required to incentivise new supply. Combined with major supply disruptions this year from Grasberg, El Teniente, Kamoa and QB, copper supply is creating a perfect storm for prices, despite constrained demand from China’s slumping property sector.

Copper names we like:

• Lundin Mining: developing Vicuna district alongside BHP
• Atalaya: top class operators in Spain’s Iberian Pyrite Belt, targeting >100ktpa from Rio Tinto expansion programmes and Touro development
• Amerigo Resources: reprocessing tailings at Codelco’s El Teniente mine, high-yield story
• First Quantum: Reinforced balance sheet following deleveraging, upside to Cobre Panama deal due 2026
• Marimaca Copper: MOD project low-capital intensity heap leach, upside to Pampa Medina sulphide exploration programme
• GreenX Metals: Exploring for copper in Germany, seeking Kupferschiefer-style copper mineralisation
• Regulus Resources: Antakori brownfield copper-gold project in Peru, working to deliver an MRE and PEA with Coimolache JV
• SolGold: Expecting further takeover interest following last week’s rejection of Jiangxi approach
• Oscillate Metals*: Early-stage exploration in Namibia and Botswana
• C3 Metals: Large-scale copper porphyry targets in Peru and Jamaica, JV with Freeport McMoran
• Tertiary Minerals*: Large land package in Zambia, working with KoBold and First Quantum in JV
• Phoenix Copper*: Small-scale copper project in Idaho progressing financing

*SP Angel acts as Nomad/Broker

Glencore to shut two ferrochrome smelters and cut jobs on the back of soaring power costs in South Africa

• Merafe Resources, a local JV, issued retrenchment notices and voluntary severance packages to employees  (Bloomberg).
• The Company plans to mothball the Boshoek and Wonderkop smelters at the start of 2026.
• Following discussions with Eskom, the Company said current conditions only allow it to keep one of five smelting complexes running (Lion, Limpopo Province).
• The cut would see ferrochrome output drop to ~14% of capacity once two smelters are mothballed.
• Production from China, Kazakhstan and Zimbabwe is reported to have been filling the gap.

IG TV Commodity Corner (18/11/25):  

ii TV – Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

US – Equities climb ahead of ADP employment numbers that are expect4ed to show a deterioration in employment growth

China – A slowdown in private services sector reported for November building on a weaker than expected manufacturing data released earlier this week

• Private Services PMI (Nov / Oct / Est): 52.1 / 52.6 / 52.1
• Private Composite PMI (Nov / Oct / Est): 51.2 / 51.8 / NA

UK – The BOE warned over record levels of UK government debt buying by hedge funds used to borrow heavily, leaving the UK more exposed to a leveraged bond market sell off

• Hedge funds borrowed ~£100bn against gilt portfolios in November, the highest level since 2017, raising the risk of forced deleveraging and sharp market swings, the bi annual Financial Stability Report read.
• Regulators are exploring limits on hedge fund leverage to prevent a destabilising feedback loop that could rapidly drive government borrowing costs up.
• The Bank also flagged elevated financial-stability risks in 2025, including stretched AI-driven tech valuations, concentrated equity markets, and vulnerabilities in private credit/shadow banking.
• Growing reliance on corporate bond issuance and private credit to fund AI infrastructure increases systemic risk, as losses could spike if equity markets correct or AI expectations disappoint.

Russia/Ukraine – Kremlin welcomed US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner discussing the latest version of the peace plan

• Russia called the dialogue constructive but rejected the plan.
• Key critical issues seem to be centred around a territorial control and security guarantees.

Currencies

US$1.1640/eur vs 1.1613/eur previous. Yen 155.69/$ vs 155.89/$. SAr 17.064/$ vs 17.100/$. $1.324/gbp vs $1.321/gbp. 0.658/aud vs         0.656/aud. CNY 7.066/$ vs 7.071/$.

Dollar Index 99.19 vs 99.42 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,206/oz vs US$4,217/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.7moz vs 97.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,653/oz vs US$1,660/oz previous

Palladium US$1,457/oz vs US$1,446/oz previous

Silver US$58.1/oz vs US$57.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,025/oz vs US$8,050/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,261/t vs US$11,254/t previous

Aluminium US$2,890/t vs US$2,900/t previous

Nickel US$14,890/t vs US$14,925/t previous

Zinc US$3,076/t vs US$3,096/t previous

Lead US$2,005/t vs US$2,007/t previous

Tin US$39,675/t vs US$39,150/t previous      

Energy:

Oil US$62.8/bbl vs US$63.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were broadly unchanged as the API estimated a 2.5mb w/w oil inventory draw in the USA.
• European energy prices were stable after the EU agreed to accelerate a ban on LNG imports from Russia by one year to end-2026, as France’s nuclear generation rose 1% w/w to 85% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €27.8/MWh vs €27.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.1/lb vs $76.1/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.2/t vs US$103.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$452.6/t vs US$451.7/t

HCC FOB Australia US$203.2/t vs US$202.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$108.5/t vs US$110.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$50,035/t vs US$50,035/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$84,417/t vs US$84,357/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$13,091/t vs US$13,081/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,155/t vs US$1,155/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$753/mtu vs US$748/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$96/lb vs US$96/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.9/kg vs US$23.9/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$265/t vs US$272/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,111/t vs US$1,110/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Tesla’s China-made EV sales up 9.9% in November

• Tesla’s Chinese-made EV sales rose 9.9% yoy in November 2025, around 86,700 vehicles sold in domestic and export sales last month.
• Sales of its Chinese-made Model 3 and Model Y were up 41.0% mom from October.
• The jump in sales came as Tesla introduced a longer-range rear-wheel-drive variant of its best-selling Model Y in China last month.

NIO ends production of 150kWh semi-solid-state battery

• NIO has discontinued production of its 150kWh semi-solid-state (SSS) battery packs that it launched in April 2024 with partner WeLion.
• The company has cited low demand, with only a few hundred units being produced.
• The battery offers 1000km, but potential clients have been deterred by the high cost, opting for more affordable 75 or 100kWh battery packs.
• NIO’s extensive battery swap network of 3500 stations in China means that consumers do not need the extreme range that the SSS battery pack provides.
• Next-gen technology is now at the point where the additional cost needs to be justified to the consumer which will be a new challenge for producers.

Company news

DPM Metals (DPM CN) C$40, Mkt Cap C$8.6bn – Maiden MRE delivered for Dumitru Potok, Rakita North and Frasen in Serbia

• DPM Metals has published a maiden inferred resource for several projects within 2km of planned Coka Rakita infrastructure.
• Dumitru Potok:
  • 64.1mt at 1.07g/t Au and 1.09% Cu for 2.2koz Au and 700kt Cu
• Rakita North:
  • 17.9mt at 0.56g/t Au and 0.84% Cu for 320koz Au and 150kt Cu
• Frasen:
  • 2.4mt at 1.21g/t Au and 0.7% Cu for 95koz Au and 17kt Cu
• The three projects are located adjacent to Coka Rakita and lie within the Company’s exploration licences.
• All resources assume an underground mining scenario.
• Met test-work has suggested high recoveries are achievable across the three targets, to produce a saleable copper-gold concentrate.
• Management sees the Rakita camp as a district-scale gold-copper system.
• DPM emphasises that all MREs remain open in several directions, and the team has identified several ‘high-potential targets along a six-kilometre trend.’
• DPM intends to conduct step-out drilling to test the continuation of the systems.

Galileo Resources (GLR LN) 0.75p, Mkt Cap £10m – Drilling underway at Molefe, Zambia

• Galileo Resources confirms that it has completed the first two drillholes of a planned ten-hole resource drilling programme at the Molefe copper project in Zambia.
• In November, Galileo Resources agreed to collaborate with Jubilee Metals on a joint development of the project in return for the right to earn a 23.75% interest in the project which is building up to supply 4,500tpm of ore to Jubilee Metals’ Sable plant.
• Longer term, further expansion of output from Molefe aims to “reach 8 500tpm by Q3 FY2026”.
• In November, in an announcement on the collaboration with Jubilee Metals, Galileo Resources announced that “Jubilee temporarily halted mining at Molefe Mine for July and August 2025” while it completed evaluation of a plan to “merge the satellite pits into one large open-pit … [to] … provide increased flexibility and productivity for supplying Sable”.
• Chairman, Colin Bird, welcomed the start of the drilling and said that he looked forward “to reviewing initial results aimed at underpinning production goals whilst we undertake reconnaissance drilling of the general area”.

Conclusion: Drilling is underway at Molefe following an agreement, in late November, to earn a 23.75% interest in the project. Results are awaited.

Landore Resources (LND LN) 4.25p, Mkt Cap £15m – C$1.3m expected from sale of an Ontario project

• Landore Resources draws attention to an announcement by Storm Exploration of an agreement to sell “its interest in the Miminiska Project, located in northwestern Ontario” to TSXV-listed European Electric Metals for ~C$5.8m in cash and shares.
• Landore Resources confirms that, subject to conditions, it “will receive payment of C$1,312,000 in cash from Storm upon closing of the Definitive Agreement, in satisfaction of Storm’s remaining option payment under the Option Agreement”.
• “Landore continues to hold 3,268,234 common shares in Storm, representing a 15.8% interest in the company”.
• CEO, Alexander Shaw, confirmed that, added to proceeds of the company’s recent placing, the C$1.3m from Storm Exploration for the sale of the Miminiska Project “will provide Landore with a strong platform going into 2026”.

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 1.05p, Mkt Cap £17m – Team boost for resource definition at Harts Range rare earth prospect

• New Frontier Minerals reports the retention and appointment of key personnel to drive the company forwards in its drilling and definition of rare earths at Harts Range ~140km NE of Alice Springs.
  • Kevin Das, a geologist and mining executive with >24 years’ experience
  • Joel Logan is appointed as an executive Director for oversight on NFM projects
• “Kevin brings extensive expertise across discovery, project development, strategic investment and corporate growth. In 2016, he founded the ARD Group, a resource-focused investment and acquisition group.
• Kevin also had a key role in the Browns Range rare earth discoveries with Northern Minerals Ltd and is a substantial shareholder of NFM.
• Joel Logan is a geologist with hands-on experience working on major projects with BHP and Azure Minerals covering large-scale exploration, discovery programs and early-stage project evaluation.
• Joel has been closely involved with NFM’s exploration activities will continue to play a key leadership role in operational oversight and execution.
• New Frontier Minerals recently started an initial 46-hole, ~2,500m RC drill programme at Harts Range.
• Drilling is due to be completed by the year-end with assays expected early in the new year.
• The team have also reported meaningful progress on the processing of a 25kg bulk sample of raw ore from Harts Range using FJH ‘Flash Joule Heating’technology in jv with Metallium Ltd (MTM AU).
• The Metallium Ltd’s FJH trial shows 20x TREO upgrade in total REOs to 35 % from 1.7 % in a single step flash
• Key heavy REEs Dy and Tb, and magnet REE Nd concentrations increased significantly
  • Dy₂O₃ upgraded 53× (0.19% → 10.03%) / 11% → 29% of the REO basket (+160%)
  • Tb₄O₇ upgraded 21× (0.03% → 0.64%) / 1.7% → 1.8% of the REO basket (+5%)
  • Nd₂O₃ upgraded 114× (0.05% → 5.69%) / 2.9% → 16.3% of the REO basket (+460%)
  • Complete removal of detectable Fe₂O₃, SiO₂ and Th
  • Partial yttrium rejection, reducing Y₂O₃ from 61% to 35% of the REO basket
• The trial was run on raw ore, with no flotation, acid leaching or hydrometallurgical pre-conditioning.
• The results represent show positive beneficiation for a raw Dy/Tb-bearing ore in a single, rapid, solvent-free reaction.

Conclusion: Today’s news on recruitment and retention is a positive step towards the potential delineation and definition of a REE resource at Harts Range.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

Perseus (PRU AU) A$5.6, Mkt Cap A$7.5bn – Acquiring Predictive Discovery for $1.4bn

• Perseus announced overnight it has launched a superior proposal to acquire Predictive Discovery+.
• Perseus is offering 0.136 new Perseus shares for every Predictive share held.
• At Perseus’ closing price on the 2^nd December, this implies A$0.778/share for PDI, valuing the Company at $1.4bn.
• Perseus made an initial strategic investment into PDI in August 2024, buying 13.8% via a strategic equity investment.
• PDI’s Bankan Project:
  • DFS sees 250kozpa over 12yr LOM at $1,057/oz AISC
  • Mineral inventory of 54.5mt at 1.86g/t Au for 3.3moz
  • 43.7mt in open pit and 10.8mt underground
  • 4.5mtpa CIL plant for 92.8% recovery
  • Development CAPEX of $463m
  • Post tax NPV5 of $2.9bn and IRR of 73% at $3,300/oz Au.
• The PDI board has ‘unanimously determined… that the Acquisition Proposal constitutes a Superior Proposal for the purposes of the terms of arrangement between the Company and Robex Resources.’
• Predictive and Robex Resources had announced a merger of equals in October, with Robex’s CEO Matthew Wilcox set to become the MD, building Bankan using Robex’s Kinero cashflows.

Conclusion: Perseus has crashed the Robex-PDI merger, which was agreed in October. The $1.4bn consideration will enable Perseus to boost production significantly, with Bankan expected to produce 250kozpa. Perseus expects to fund both Bankan and the ongoing Nyanzaga construction from current liquidity ($837m in cash and bullion as of September 30^th) and ongoing cashflows from the Edikan, Yaoure and Sissingué gold mines. We will be interested to see if the Lundin-Zijin partnership get involved following last night’s offer. The two parties took a A$69m equity stake in February, and the Lundin family is backing Montage Gold’s efforts to become a mid-tier West African producer off the back of their Kone mine in Cote d’Ivoire. There is a dearth of high-quality, undeveloped African gold projects, and we suspect Kefi*, WIA Gold+ and Turaco+ will be of interest to cash-rich producers look to expand their production profiles.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Kefi

+An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Predictive Discovery, WIA Gold and Turaco

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) 0.12p, Mkt Cap £9.2m – Continuing drilling challenges at the Molaoi zinc project in Greece

• Rockfire Resources reports that it has suspended drilling of the second hole (HMO-009) of its planned 30-hole resource drilling campaign at the Molaoi zinc project in Greece at a depth of 75m.
• Drilling of hole HMO-009, targeted to intersect mineralisation at >250m, was stopped following the intersection of “extensive fault zones, shears, brecciation and fracturing, which resulted in extremely difficult drilling conditions”.
• The company explains that it decided to suspend the drilling and move to the next planned hole to “secure the hole for re-drilling later”.
• Prior to the suspension, HNO-009 intersected mineralisation averaging 22.2% zinc, 16.2g/t germanium, 2.9% lead and 100g/t silver over a 0.2m interval from a depth of 69.71m.
• Rockfire Resources says that initial results from hole HMO-010 “are good … with massive sulphides encountered at a depth of 44.20m”.
• CEO, David Price said that the decision to move to Hole HMO-010 had been made “for the sake of increased drilling productivity”.
• In early November, the company reported that the first hole of the resource upgrade drilling programme (MHO-008) had been completed at a depth pf 289m after encountering “extensive fault zones, shears, brecciation and fracturing, which resulted in very slow and difficult drilling conditions … [by] … “unintentionally … [drilling] … directly down one of the growth faults which are responsible for the thickening of mineralised sedimentary units”.”
• Mr. Price confirmed that “Holes HMO-008 and HMO-009 have been secured, plugged and left ready to move the rig back onto these holes to continue drilling them later … [and that] … A second drill rig is being sought to increase the rate of drilling productivity and we expect that rig to be available in early January 2026”.

Conclusion: Resource upgrade drilling at Molaoi has encountered very challenging drilling conditions in heavily faulted ground in the first two holes of the 30-hole programme. Drilling has moved to the third hole while the first two holes have been secured for later redrilling.  Additional drilling capacity is expected on site in early January.

URU Metals* (URU LN) 7.75p, Mkt cap £7.5m – Convertible loan repayment date extended to 31 March

• URU Metals reports the extension of the repayment date for the convertible loan from Boothbay Absolute Return Strategies LP to 31 March 2026.
• The US$500,000 convertible loan repayment has been extended on multiple occasions.
• The convertible converts at a 35% discount to the 5-day VWAP
• See RNS for further related conditions and details.
• URU Metals recently gained a 30-year Mining Right over a total of ~4,704ha of the Zeb nickel project near Mokopane, South Africa.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

Vale* (VALE US) $12.9, Mkt Cap $58bn – Trimming iron ore production on Simandou impact and deal with Glencore to expand copper output in Canada

• Vale hosted their Vale Day capital markets event yesterday, providing an update on ongoing projects and production guidance.
• 2025 productoin towards the upper end of guidance, with 335mt iron ore and 370kt Cu.
• Iron ore:
  • Vale expects to produce 360mt iron ore by 2030 and 700kt Cu by 2035.
  • Vale expects production to be 335-345mt in 2026 (down from 340-360mt previously guided) amid slowing global demand and new supply from Simandou.
  • Vale expects steel production to rise from 1,905mt in 2025 to 1,940mt in 2026, 2,020mt in 2030 and 2,270mt in 240, with China demand slowing, offset by rising demand from India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
  • Iron ore demand expected to slide from 1,580mt in 2025 to 1,520mt in 2030.
  • Iron ore supply expected to slide from 1,630mt in 2025 to 1,540mt in 2030.
  • EAF production capacity expected to rise, with capacity under construction expected to rise from 10mt in 2025 to 40mt in 2029.
  • Vale reports a $3/t premium improvement for its 62% Fe product, as steelmakers reprice silica discounts.
• Copper:
  • Vale copper production expected to rise from 370kt in 2025 to 350-380kt in 2026, with all in costs at $1,000/t in 2025, guided at $1,000-1,500/t in 2026.
  • Sossego and Salobo throughput ramp up supporting higher production guidance.
• Vale has signed an agreement with Glencore to evaluate a brownfield copper development project in the Sudbury Basin.
• The agreement will explore synergies at Sudbury, utilising Glencore’s Nickel Rim South Mine.
• The project is expected to produce 880kt over 21 years, with CAPEX guided at $1.6-2bn.
• FID for the JV is due 1H27 and is expected to add 25ktpa to Vale’s attributable copper output, for an IRR over 15%.

Conclusion: Vale is openly addressing increased supply out of Simandou, lowering production guidance for 2026 as Chinese demand continues to wane. They see strong iron ore demand out of India and the Middle East, expected to balance the decline in China. Vale has outlined their ambitious copper production expansion plans, guiding for 700ktpa in 2035, driven by Salobo, Sossego, Alemao, Victor and the North and South hubs. Hu’u provides additional upside from 2035. We suspect the JV with Glencore may be the first of several strategic alliances Vale makes in their base metals division, as they look to extract higher value from the large-scale copper/nickel production profile. Iron ore producers trade at a significant discount to pure-play copper producers, and it will be interesting to see how Vale looks to capitalise on this disparity.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Vale

Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) SUSPENDED – Funding for the €2.2bn Phase One secured

• The Company secures funding for Phase One of the Lionheart DLE Lithium Project in the Upper Rhine Valley, Germany.
• €2.2bn funding package includes:
  • €1,185m in senior debt funding by a syndicate of 13 financial institutions comprising the European Investment Bank, five Export Credit Agencies and seven commercial banks;
  • €204m in German government grants;
  • €150m equity by the KfW Raw Materials Fund (KfW) to acquire a 14% interest in Vulcan’s primary German holding subsidiary, Vulcan Energie Ressourcen GmbH (GermanSubCo),
  • €133m equity by a consortium of strategic investors comprising HOCHTIEF (€39m), Siemens Financial Services (€67m) and Demeter (€28m) to acquire a 15% equity interest in the Phase One Lionheart project entity
  • €528m equity from the underwritten component (€603m including non underwritten part) of an equity raising by Vulcan at A$4.00, comprising:
    • €137m fully underwritten institutional placement
    • €261m fully underwritten 1-for-1.128 accelerated non-renounceable institutional entitlement offer
    • €205m 1-for-1.128 non-accelerated retail entitlement offer, partially underwritten to €130m.
• Additionally, the commercial lenders will provide €154m including €125m Working Capital Facility and €29m VAT Facility.
• Placing price represents a ~35% discount to the last close.
• HOCHTIEF, a diversified global developer of large scale infrastructure projects, is investing €39m on project level (Phase One) and takes up to €130m equity in Vulcan for a maximum of 15.7% interest.
• HOCHTIEF was also signed as an EPCM contractor via a JV with Sedgman for the Project.
• Underwritten equity placing (€528m) to close later today with retail offer (€75m) to open 10 December and close 23 December.
• The project includes an integrated lithium and renewable energy production targeting 24kt LHM, 275 GWh of renewable power and 560GWh of heat per annum over 30y LOM.
• Phase One Lionheart facilities include:
  • Renewable power and heat plant;
  • Geothermal-lithium brine production wells with supporting facilities;
  • Lithium Extraction Plant (where lithium is extracted from brine using Vulcan’s proprietary VULSORB® Adsorption-type Direct Lithium Extraction technology); and
  • Central Lithium Plant, where the lithium is converted to battery-quality LHM
• 2.5y long construction period and start of production in 2028.
• Offtakes fully cover first 10y of production including contracts with LG, Umicore, Stellantis and Glencore.
• MRE 29.1mt LCE at 175mg/L
• Latest Phase One economic study highlights include:
  • 30y LOM at 24ktpa LHM
  • €1.5bn capex and ~€3,600/LHM C1 opex
  • 10y LHM average price ~€20,500/LHM
  • Av Revenue €566mpa (95% LHM, 5% heat and 1% heat)
  • Post tax NPV8 and IRR €1,152m and 13.7% (unlevered)

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.