Gold pares peace MoU gains as dollar jumps again
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Anglo American (AAL LN) – Joint copper development agreement in Chile
Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Rare-earth drilling results from South Australia
East Star Resources (EST LN) – JV drilling programme expected to start at Verkhuba
Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Completion of Eclipse sale and A$700k received
Energy Fuels (UUUU US) – $1.9bn acquisition of German magnet manufacturer
European Metals Holdings (EMH LN) – Potential cost savings identified for the Cinovec lithium project, Czechia
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – Completion of Andacollo transaction
Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – Additional $30m raised in revolving credit facility amid difficult market conditions
Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – BUY, 0.85p – 9M25 final results highlight Bougouni maiden concentrate sales
NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) – Lunahuasi drilling results return 1,540m at 1.17% CuEq
Rio2* (RIO CN) – Condestable MRE and Reserve update supports 14-year LOM and $710m NPV5
Gold ($4,076/oz) pares peace MoU gains as dollar jumps again
- Gold prices have now given back all of their recovery move on the MoU announcement for a peace agreement in the Middle East.
- The positive progress between the US and Iran saw gold recover from $4,050/oz to $4,358/oz.
- The weakness has been primarily driven by a rallying dollar, triggered following the Fed meeting where new Fed Chair Warsh outlined intentions to control inflation.
- The dollar index has jumped to a 52-week high, weighing on the wider precious metals spectrum.
- The dollar’s weakness through 2025 was a major tailwind for gold, as ‘de-dollarisation’ positioning became a major thematic for investment funds.
- The currency is being lifted by increasing rate hike expectations, also benefiting from rising risk-off appetite as tech stocks come under pressure.
- While we expect central banks to continue buying, providing a sustainable price floor to gold, a further extension of the dollar rally will add pressure to bullion prices.
Silver falls to around half peak level
- The price of silver has collapsed to US$61.8 from the $121.6/oz price seen in January.
- A stronger US dollar is causing dollar-denominated metals prices to pull back as buyers step back from higher prices in their domestic currencies
- Downward momentum has unwound leverage with non-yielding assets like gold and silver suffering.
- Silver ETF holdings have pulled back
- The dollar is being driven by expectations for rising US interest rates and ongoing tension in the Gulf over the US, Iran, Israel cease fire.
- The election of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve is seen as relatively hawkish for interest rates in the short term.
- Few expect the MoU or any other agreement with the IRGC to last with the Iranian regime likely planning on playing games with the US through their proxies and with the Strait of Hormuz.
- The IRGC are keen to export through the US blockade to raise funds to pay soldiers and to fund their military machine.
- In return a few ships have transmitted through the Strait of Hormuz.
Nickel prices continue to pull back despite Indonesian restrictions
- Nickel stocks remain persistently high at 275,448t on the LME vs 204,360t a month ago and 96,789t on the SHFE vs ~30,000t a year ago
- Revised quotas from the Indonesian government lifted nickel prices six months ago with the nation supplying ~62% of world refined supply
- The INSG, International Nickel Study Group, forecast the market will move into 32,000t deficit despite mixed signals from the stainless steel and EV sectors
Sherritt manages orderly shutdown of their Fort Saskatchewan refinery in Alberta on closure of Cuban nickel mine
- US sanctions on Cuba have forced Sherritt (S CN) to close its plant in Canada, cutting off Canada’s only cobalt refinery.
- Sherritt mines nickel and cobalt in Cuba for shipping to Canada for processing.
Nickel Industries (ASX: NIC) will pay $169m for a 17.5% stake in TMI, a new battery-nickel plant in Indonesia.
- TMI sits next to ENC (Excelsior Nickel Cobalt) plant in Sulawesi, and makes MHP, the half-processed nickel-cobalt material used for EV batteries.
- First production is expected from late 2027.
- Nickel Industries will own 17.5%, alongside a Korean-Japanese group (72.5%) and a Singapore investor (10%).
- Indonesia has banned new HPAL plants which make battery-grade nickel meaning TMI is one of the last chances to expand at this scale.
Rare Earths – China blacklists US producers and tightens its grip
- China added 10 US firms to its export-control list (a trade blacklist).
- These include MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, the two biggest US makers of rare earths, the metals used to make strong magnets for EVs, electronics, and weapons.
- This splits prices into a China price and a higher non-China price.
- For example, dysprosium (a rare earth for strong magnets) sent to North America cost about 4.4 times the China price in 2025.
- It also pushes faster supply outside China, helped by a US guaranteed minimum price of $110/kg for the main magnet material (NdPr).
- On top of that, USA Rare Earth is building a plant in South Carolina and buying a producer in Brazil.
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.09% | at | 51,667 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.88% | at | 69,175 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.40% | at | 23,430 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.11% | at | 4,111 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -1.8 | at | 4.48 |
Currencies
US$1.1355/eur vs 1.1421/eur previous. Yen 161.69/$ vs 161.67/$. SAr 16.588/$ vs 16.498/$. $1.319/gbp vs $1.323/gbp. 0.690/aud vs 0.695/aud. CNY 6.805/$ vs 6.782/$
Dollar Index 101.56 vs 101.08 previous
Economics
US – PMI improves to 52.2 from 51.5
- Manufacturing PMI rise to a very positive 57.7 from 56.6 recording the highest level in five years
- Services PMI also rose to 51.3 from 50.7
- The rise is attributed to more positive news with Iran
Japan – BoJ looks forward to potential 2% interest rate as bank turns more hawkish
- Members of the BoJ comment that inflation pressures remain on the upside indicating more higher rates to come
Germany – IFO business climate index rises to 85.6 from 84.9
- German companies are feeling more confident and looking forward to a more stable geopolitical environment
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,085/oz vs US$4,114/oz previous
Gold ETFs 97.5moz vs 97.5moz previous
Platinum US$1,648/oz vs US$1,641/oz previous
Palladium US$1,229/oz vs US$1,229/oz previous
Silver US$61.8/oz vs US$62.4/oz previous
Silver ETFs 786.4moz vs 784.0moz previous
Rhodium US$7,950/oz vs US$8,000/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,359/t vs US$13,482/t previous
Aluminium US$3,198/t vs US$3,253/t previous
Nickel US$16,830/t vs US$17,445/t previous
Zinc US$3,441/t vs US$3,535/t previous
Lead US$1,930/t vs US$1,946/t previous
Tin US$51,100/t vs US$52,120/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$76.2/bbl vs US$76.6/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices fell on signs of increasing marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as the API estimated a US inventory w/w draw of 0.8mb to crude oil, offset by builds of 1.2mb to gasoline and 1.5mb to distillate stocks.
- European energy prices were broadly unchanged as France’s average nuclear generation fell 9% w/w to 62% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity, as EDF warned that three nuclear plants faced production curbs this week due to high temperatures on the Rhone and Garonne rivers in the current heatwave affecting Western Europe.
Natural Gas €41.9/MWh vs €41.8/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $85.6/lb vs $85.6/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$98.4/t vs US$98.0/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$479.4/t vs US$482.1/t
HCC FOB Australia US$243.0/t vs US$243.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$130.8/t vs US$131.3/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$106,988/t vs US$105,953/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,559/t vs US$23,078/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,400/t vs US$2,400/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,705/mtu vs US$1,705/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$228/lb vs US$228/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.2/kg vs US$27.2/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$224/t vs US$225/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vs US$2,809/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,154/t vs US$1,158/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$402.5/t vs US$402.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,075.0/kg vs US$4,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$31.0/lb vs US$31.0/lb
EV & Battery news:
Octopus and CATL to partner on European EV truck battery swap network
- UK energy company Octopus and Chinese battery giant CATL announced a new joint venture at Octopus Energy’s Energy Tech Summit, in London, yesterday.
- The partnership will draw on CATL’s battery technology and experience operating swapping stations in China with Octopus’s energy supply, trading, and software capabilities.
- Octopus and CATL say the first “mega hubs” are expected to open in the UK in 2027, with more than 30 planned by 2035.
- Each hub is expected to be able to serve thousands of lorries a day.
- Octopus CEO, Greg Jackson said at the summit that the network will take advantage of being able to charge batteries from the grid when electricity is at a cheaper rate and the grid is not at capacity.
Hyundai backs ioneer’s lithium-boron project in Nevada
- ioneer (ASX: INR) saw new backing for its Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project in Nevada which is backed by a US$996 federal loan.
- Hyundai Engineering and one other South Korean group plan to sign early cooperation deal (MOUs) in July.
- The site holds the only known lithium-boron deposit in North America, with about $220m spent since 2016.
- ioneer aims to make a final go-ahead decision in late 2026 and start production by 2029 on plans to produce lithium and boric acid with on-site processing.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.7% | -9.3% | Freeport-McMoRan | -6.9% | -8.2% |
| Rio Tinto | -1.2% | -6.9% | Vale | -2.5% | -4.3% |
| Glencore | 0.4% | -7.9% | Newmont Mining | -3.9% | -7.5% |
| Anglo American | 0.5% | -9.8% | Fortescue | -0.1% | -5.3% |
| Antofagasta | -0.1% | -12.3% | Teck Resources | -5.8% | -9.7% |
Anglo American (AAL LN) 3,698, Mkt Cap £44bn – Joint copper development agreement in Chile
- Anglo American confirms that it has completed an agreement with the Chilean state copper miner, Codelco, for joint development of their adjacent Los Bronces and Andina copper mines.
- The company, which announced the plan last September, says that the “joint mine plan is expected to unlock 2.7 million tonnes of additional copper over a 21-year period, delivering an average of 120,000 tonnes per year of additional low-cost copper production (to be shared equally) with minimal capital investment”.
- “Implementation of the joint mine plan remains conditional on the relevant environmental permits being secured, together with other customary conditions to final implementation, currently expected by 2030”.
- Welcoming the opportunity to “work in partnership to unlock compelling industrial synergies -delivering significant value and more copper tonnes for both companies and for Chile … [CEO, Duncan Wanblad said that integrating the two mines unlocks] … one of the most significant copper adjacency opportunities in the world”.
- He explained that situations where two similar mines are adjacent “are rare and they highlight the role that responsible, partnership-led development can play – in this case supporting Chile’s ambition to lift national copper production to 6 million tonnes per year by 2030”.
- Codelco’s Chairman, Bernardo Fontaine, described the agreement to “develop one of the world’s leading copper districts … [efficiently and responsibly which] … allows us to make better use of existing infrastructure, capture greater benefits for Chile, and move forward with a long-term vision based on operational excellence, sustainability, and the responsible use of resources”.
- Today’s announcement explains that “Both Anglo American and Codelco will maintain the flexibility to develop their own standalone projects, including the advancement of their respective underground resources, during the term of the joint mine plan in a coordinated and appropriate manner”.
Conclusion: Joint development of Los Bronces and Andina is an opportunity to maximise ore resource extraction at minimal additional capital cost producing an additional 2.7mt of copper over a 21-year life and comes at a time when there is an increasing demand for copper to underpin global energy transition initiatives.
Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 4.45p, Mkt Cap £47m – Rare-earth drilling results from South Australia
- Cobra Resources reports results from that mineral resource and exploration drilling at its “unique, controlled aquifer-hosted ionic rare earth element” Boland and Head rare-earths projects in South Australia.
- The company has completed 74 holes (~3,200m) adding “scale to the mineralisation footprint and … [demonstrating] … that mineralisation is concentrated within zones of the Boland and Head palaeosystems”.
- The drilling has shown a “high-grade continuous ~5km flank … at the Head prospect where mineralisation occurs within three lithologies amenable to ISR” (in-situ recovery):
- The Nalarby Formation described as “a shallow, unconfined, narrow and highly permeable reduced sand”; and
- The Garford Formation – “a smectite-rich clay with confined sandy interbeds”; and
- The Pidinga Formation “a confined aquifer of reduced, thick permeable sands with lignite interbeds”.
- Among the highlighted results included in today’s announcement are:
o A 5.95m intersection hosting 1,232ppm TREO (total rare earth oxide) from 27.8m depth in hole CBSC-0071; and
o A 6.65m intersection grading 636ppm TREO from 26.6m depth in hole CBSC-0074; and
o A 2.17m intersection grading 1,783ppm TREO from 30.4m depth in hole CBSC-0062; and
o A 3.80m intersection grading 1,322ppm TREO from 26.1m depth in hole CBSC-0081; and
o A 1.06m intersection grading 3,607ppm TREO from 18.6m depth in hole CBSC-0067; and
o A 1.15m intersection grading 1,574ppm TREO from 18.8m depth in hole CBSC-0087; and
o A 1.30m intersection grading 1,211ppm TREO from 36.1m depth in hole CBSC-0080; and
o A 1.80m intersection grading 825ppm TREO from 8.7m depth in hole CBSC-0079.
- Estimates of the net acid production potential (NAPP) show that “acid generation exceeds acid consumption within continuous high-grade zones … which significantly reduces extraction costs”.
- Results from around 80% of the drilling have been received with those from a further 19 holes expected “in the coming weeks”.
- “Mineralisation … [at the Head prospect which Managing Director, Ruper Verco, described as exhibiting] all the right features to enable cost-efficient ISR … remains open to the north and south”.
- The company also confirms that “Partial results from particle size distribution analysis support productive calculated transmissivity estimates necessary for ISR production”.
Conclusion: Recent drilling results continue to demonstrate the potential for in-situ recovery of rare-earths from palaeochannel deposits at its Boland and Head properties in South Australia.
East Star Resources (EST LN) 4.25p, Mkt Cap £22m – JV drilling programme expected to start at Verkhuba
- East Star provides an update on its JV with Xinhai Mining Services at its Verkhuba in Kazakhstan.
- The agreement provides for Xinhai Mining investing “approximately US$65 million … to accelerate the development of Verkhuba into production … to earn 30% of the producing mine with a current JORC Inferred Resource of 20.3Mt @ 1.16% copper, 1.54% zinc and 0.27% lead”.
- “The first funding milestone under the agreement has been partially satisfied, with Xinhai transferring A$500,000 to Verkhuba Limited to commence the planned resource definition and development work programme”.
- Work is underway to transfer the licence and “drilling rigs have been mobilised to site” ahead of a planned 5,000m diamond drilling programme “to support resource definition, mine planning and feasibility studies … [which is] … expected to commence in June 2026”.
- CEO, Alex Walker, said that the “drilling will mark the first major technical work programme under the joint venture and is expected to provide valuable data for resource optimisation, mine design and future feasibility studies”.
Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 39p, Mkt Cap £298m – Completion of Eclipse sale and A$700k received
- Empire reports the completion of the sale of their 75% interest in the Eclipse Mining Lease.
- The Company has now received a total of A$750k for the non-core exploration asset near Kalgoorlie, WA.
- The transaction reflects management focus on their flagship Pitfield titanium project in Western Australia.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Empire Metals
Energy Fuels (UUUU US) $15.5, Mkt Cap $3.9bn – $1.9bn acquisition of German magnet manufacturer
- The Company is acquiring 100% of Vacuumschmelze GmbH & Co, a permanent magnets manufacturer, for US$1.9bn in cash and stock from Ara Partners.
- VAC is a leading advanced magnetics Company with over 100y of production expertise, more than 400 patents and over 1,000 customers.
- The Company runs a facility Sumter, South Carolina, with a capacity for 2,000tpa of permanent magnets, scalable to 12,000tpa.
- Production includes both permanent magnets (sintered neodymium-iron-boron, NdFeB, and samarium-cobalt, SmCo) and soft magnetics (amorphous and nanocrystalline alloys, cobalt-iron and nickel-iron products).
- VAC headquarters are in Hanau, Germany.
- Ara Partners will hold 19.9% in Energy Fuels post-acquisition.
- The deal follows up on an earlier transaction to acquire metals and alloy producer Australian Strategic Materials for ~$300m earlier in the year.
Conclusion: The deal creates a fully integrated platform from mine to finished magnets and highlights competition for companies with established production facilities be it in upstream (Serra Verde), midstream (Less Common Metals, ASM) or final product (VAC).
European Metals Holdings (EMH LN) 15.25p, Mkt Cap £37m – Potential cost savings identified for the Cinovec lithium project, Czechia
- European Metals Holdings reports that optimisation studies on its Definitive Feasibility Study for its Cinovec lithium project in Czechia have identified potential annual cost savings of US$51m pa on reagent consumption and pricing.
- The optimisation studies envisage:
- An “80% reduction in annual run-of-plant caustic soda usage, from 18.8 tph to 3.8 tph”; and
- A “65% reduction in annual run-of-plant sulphuric acid usage, from 14.3 tph to 5.0 tph”; and
- A “54% reduction in annual run-of-plant anhydrous sodium sulphate output, from 25.2 tph to 11.7 tph”.
- The studies also forecast improved recoveries “from 90.8% in the DFS to 91.1%”.
- The studies have also shown potential power cost savings of “more than 25% or US$3.4m per annum”.
- Today’s announcement explains that “Taken together, these reductions represent the potential to increase the pre-tax NPV8 of US$1.455bn established in the December 2025 DFS, however the exact quantum of such increase based upon the revised assumptions will only be known once the Project DFS is updated”.
- The company says that following the optimisation studies its advisors recommend “a new set of locked cycle tests of the full LCP … [lithium chemical plant] … flowsheet, followed by updating the SysCAD model and then re-running locked cycle tests for a final confirmation of expected chemistry throughout the flowsheet” enabling appropriate adjustments to the DFS.
- Executive Chairman, Keith Coughlan, said that the “potential reductions in reagent consumption and power represent a material improvement in operating costs relative to the DFS, and if adopted, the scaled-down plant infrastructure required to process lower reagent volumes is expected to also reduce capital costs relative to the initial capex of US$1.72bn established in the DFS”.
Conclusion: Post-DFS optimisation continues to identify meaningful cost-saving potential.
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 27p, Mkt Cap £192m – Completion of Andacollo transaction
- Galantas reported yesterday it has now completed the Sol de Oro Acquisition.
- The transaction secures 100% ownership of the Andacollo Gold Project in Coquimbo Chile.
- Galantas will pay the vendors (Dragones) $32.5m via structured stage cash payments by December 31st, 2029.
- $3.5m has been paid via a $0.5m streaming agreement and a promissory note from Ocean Partners for $3m.
- On closing, $1.5m was paid to Robert Sedgemore.
- Payments now due as follows:
- $3.5m payable to Dragones shareholders on 31st December 2026
- $4m on 31st December 2027
- $7m on 31st December 2028
- $14m on 31st December 2029
- Controlling shareholder of Dragones Luis Catril has assumed a 11.1% stake in Galantas following the issuance of 91m shares in January.
- Andacollo Project:
- Historic heap leach operation producing 1.12moz between 1998 – 2018, peaking at 135kozpa
- 1.47moz Au at 0.45g/t Au Indicated
- 4.5moz Au Inferred
- Targeting a return to 20ktpd operation from 2027
- The Project holds a silver stream requiring delivery of 33.4% and 66.6% of payable silver to K2 and ExGen Resources respectively to 666.7koz Ag.
Conclusion: It is good to see the closing of the Andacollo gold mine acquisition following the initial announcement in January 2026. We see Andacollo as a potential ‘company maker’ for Galantas, acquiring over 5moz of heap-leachable, open pit gold at an historic, permitted operation with substantial on-site infrastructure. We see potential for Galantas to bring the mine into production, ramping up to 20ktpd in 2027 and producing >70kozpa initially with scope to expand. Management intends to begin a drill programme imminently to target higher-grade gold mineralisation at El Sauce and Toro alongside examining the broader copper potential. Ultimately, this is a transformational acquisition for Galantas, pivoting them from a small-scale gold producer in Northern Ireland to a multi-asset Chilean developer.
*SP Angel acts as Broker to Galantas Gold
Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 199p, Mkt Cap £177m – Additional $30m raised in revolving credit facility amid difficult market conditions
- Mineral sands producer Kenmare provides an update on their revolving credit facility.
- The Company has increased its RCF from $200m to $230m to ‘provide additional financial flexibility during a period of weak market conditions.’
- The facility was provided by a syndicate of banks from Knmare’s existing lending group.
- The facility will be subject to reduction to $200m on 30th June 2027, $175m on 30th June 2028 and $150m on 31st December 2028.
- Interest payable at a rate of 5.7% plus SOFR, up from 4.85% plus SOFT.
- An additional rate of 1.5% pa will be applied on the additional $30m during 2026 and 3%pa between 1st January – 30th June 2027.
- Management states the additional $30m will provide ‘confidence to make selective investments in plant and machinery and further develop the markets for our products.’
Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.32p, Mkt Cap £65m – 9M25 final results highlight Bougouni maiden concentrate sales
BUY – 0.85p (from 0.86p)
- The Company released final results for nine months to 31 December 2025.
- The Company transitioned from development to a producer booking maiden concentrate sales during the period.
- Bougouni Lithium Mine was granted an export permit to ship 125kt SC from the Mali Government in September.
- The operation was officially opened by Mali President Goita in November.
- Ramp up progressed delivering over 40kt produced by the period end.
- Maiden shipment of ~29kt completed in November generating first sales.
- As of today, the Company shipped a total of over 69kt in three shipments generating ~$90M.
- Bougouni delivers produced concentrate into a 100% Stage 1 (DMS, 1Mtpa, ~120ktpa SC5.5) offtake agreement with Hainan Mining.
- The Company owns an effective 32% interest in the operating subsidiary (LMLB) after accounting for 35% Mali Government and ~33% Hainan Mining interests.
- The Company holds an indirect interest in the mine through KMUK, a 49/51 JV with Hainan Mining.
- The Company recognises Bougouni results through a single line equity method in its results.
- Bougouni reported £19m in revenues and £0.7m pre tax loss during the period.
- Kodal reported £0.6m loss related to Bougouni operations.
- Kodal loss after tax £1.8m (12M 31Mar25: -£11.0m) including £1.4m in admin costs and share based payments (12M 31Mar25: -£1.8m)
- A small impairment recognised during the period (£68k) relating to gold licenses in Cote d’Ivoire, all currently under renewal application.
- Closing cash balance £14.9m, down from £16.9m as of 31Mar25, and no bank debt.
- Results include a nine month period as the Company changes year end from March to December.
- The focus remains on ramping up at Bougouni, Stage 2 expansion studies (FLO, 2Mtpa, ~240ktpa SC5.5) as well as other projects.
- Separately, the Company reported this morning that Steve Zaninovich (NED) will be stepping down the Board.
- Steve will continue to provide consulting services to Kodal on Bougouni as well as potential future opportunities.
Conclusion: Results highlight the transition period as Bougouni recorded maiden concentrate sales with operations ramping up production into significantly stronger lithium market. Expect earnings to reflect higher tonnage and spodumene concentrate pricing from CY26 onwards. A recovery in SC pricing shipments is reflected in three shipments completed to date with prices progressively rising from ~$1,150/SC6 CIF (1st shipment) to ~$1,600 (2nd) and ~$2,050 (3rd). Latest spot prices remain at around ~$2,400/SC6 CIF. We reiterate BUY recommendation and slightly update the TP to account for changes in the closing cash balance.
*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals.
NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) C$24.8, Mkt Cap C$5.4bn – Lunahuasi drilling results return 1,540m at 1.17% CuEq
- Explorer NGEx reports assay results from two holes from its Phase 4 drilling progeamme at the Lunahuasi copper-gold-silver project in San Juan, Argentina.
- The two holes returned highlights of:
- DPDH064: 1,549m at 1.17% CuEq from 196m (inc. 88m at 8.65% CuEq from 572m, hole ended in mineralisation
- DPDH066: 394m at 0.24% CuEq from 1,249m
- Hole DPDH064 was drilled to test the southern extend of the Saturn Zone and adjacent porphyry at depth, intersecting the Saturn Zone between 572m and 660m.
- The hole extended the high-grade Saturn Zone by 70m to the southwest.
- Management notes it was one of the most important holes drilled to date, intersecting both the high-sulphidation system and the adjacent porphyry deposit.
- The porphyry deposit is now confirmed to host a large breccia body with strong copper and gold grades.
- The hole was the second to intersect the porphyry body.
Rio2* (RIO CN) C$2.56, Mkt Cap C$1.4bn – Condestable MRE and Reserve update supports 14 year LOM and $710m NPV5
- Chilean and Peruvian gold-copper producer Rio2 provided an update on their Condestable copper mine in Peru yesterday.
- The Company has published an updated technical report on Condestable, updating the MRE and Reserves for the underground mine.
- Rio2 is submitting an EIA in 3Q26 to increase production at Condestable from 8,400tpd to 10,000tpd.
- The updated MRE:
- Measured and Indicated: 82.1mt at 0.69% Cu, 0.13g/t Au and 4.12g/t Ag for 565kt Cu, 355koz Au and 10.9moz Ag
- Inferred: 22.2mt at 0.76% Cu, 0.09g/t Au, 2.78g/t Ag for 169kt Cu, 66koz Au, 2moz Ag
- Updated Reserves:
- 36.5mt at 0.73% Cu, 0.15g/t Au, 4.28g/t Ag for 268kt Cu, 177koz Au, 5moz Ag
- Update reflects additions
- The mine plan expects average mill feed of 0.73% Cu, 0.15g/t Au, 4.28g/t Ag at 2.9mtpa.
- The updated study supports forecast average annual production of 18ktpa Cu, 12.9koz Au, 305koz Ag at 8.4ktpd.
- C1 cash costs guided at $1/lb after by-product credits, and AISC of $1.46/lb.
- An extended LOM plan is now confirmed for 14 years through to 2039.
- Updated economics suggest a post-tax NPV8 of $710m at $4.99/lb Cu, $3,884/oz Au and $55/oz Ag.
- Looking forward, Rio2 is planning a 46,480m diamond drilling programme through 2026 to replace and expand the MRE and support infill reserve modelling. 17,200m of drilling has been completed.
- A second drilling programme is planned to delineate near-surface MRE at Condestable and Raul areas for potential open pit mineralisation, with a geological mapping campaign underway.
*SP Angel analyst(s) hold shares in Rio2
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No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street
London, W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return
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