Hyperscalers may treble copper use to 3mt over next two years
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Andrada Mining (ATM LN) – H1 financial results boosted by increased tin production and higher prices
Aterian* (ATN LN) – Aterian to establish production of tantalum, niobium, coltan and other elements in Rwanda following license renewals
Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Latest drilling at Manna Hill identifies new mineralised structures
Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) – Boosting the senior management team
Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) – 3Q26 results with Mara Rosa operations recover with San Jose hit by weather, FY26 guidance reiterated
Lithium Africa (LAF CN) – Two non binding funding offers for the Springbook Lithium Project (SA) including a US$60m investment
PLS (PLS AU) – US$700m 8.00% notes issued to fund growth
Rainbow Rare Earths* (RBW LN) – Results highlight progress towards REE production at Phalaborwa and Uberaba tailings projects
Talisman Metals (TLM LN) – Initial drilling results from Tirzzit, Morocco
Copper – Hyperscalers may treble copper use to 3mt over next two years
- The massive buildout of AI datacentres amounts to around half of planned global capex.
- The buildout is forecast to potentially use 2.5-3mt of copper over the next two years according to Trafigura’s head of industrial metals analysis at a Bloomberg LME Week event.
- Previous estimates reckoned on an additional 1mtpa of copper use in datacentres.
- Many datacentre projects may suffer planning and other delays causing datacentre demand to come in at 1.6mt by 2028.
- Hyperscaler capex is projected to reach $1.4-1.6tn by 2028 with capex running at $1.5tn pa by 2031 according to Bain & Co.
- Trafigura are also looking for mine supply to increase by 2mtpa.
Codelco reports record premium at $350/t for copper for 2027 into Europe vs $325/t this year
- The price is negotiated with certain European consumers.
- Aurubis also raised its premium to $347/t for 2027.
Nickel – Sherritt wins rare US government license to import fuel to its Cuban nickel mine
- Sherritt International has won a license from the US Government to ship fuel to its Moa Nickel mine in Cuba which it operates in a 50:50 jv with the Cuban state.
- The license was sought by Sherritt and Gillon Capital LLC which has a non-binding option to buy a proposed private placement from Sherritt at a distressed price level.
- Gillon Capital LLC is run by the Washburne family. Ray Washburne was appointed by President Donald Trump in 2017 to serve as the president and CEO of OPIC and later served on the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board.
- Cuba under Fidel Castro seized the mining assets in 1960 leading to substantial claims against the Cuban government by US entities.
Indonesia – Chinese HPAL producers to meet to cut production as low prices, rising costs and water shortage squeeze margins
- Companies Tsingshan, GEM Co., Lygend, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. and others are meeting to discuss potential production cuts to support nickel and cobalt prices as rising costs at their HPAL cripple margins.
CATL, the largest battery maker, see shares sell off >10% today as quarterly results missed earnings.
- 3Q net income rose 15%yoy to ~RMB21bn, against a RMB26bn consensus.
- Revenue were up 59%yoy to RMB165bn vs RMB175bn.
- Margins were compressed across all units by rising costs and a reduced VAT export rebate, which will be cancelled from 2027.
- A 2% consumption tax on Li-ion batteries took effect in September, ending a decade-long exemption.
- Shares fell as much as 11%, wiping out c.US$20bn in value, with the stock now roughly half its May peak.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +1.02% | at | 52,496 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.85% | at | 64,621 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.84% | at | 23,668 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.60% | at | 3,713 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.5 | at | 5.12 |
Currencies
US$1.1220/eur vs 1.1230/eur previous. Yen 158.18/$ vs 158.08/$. SAr 16.428/$ vs 16.387/$. $1.338/gbp vs $1.335/gbp. 0.702/aud vs 0.700/aud. CNY 6.679/$ vs 6.680/$.
Dollar Index 101.81 vs 101.81 previous.
Economics
US – Housing market struggles as mortgage rates hit 7.5%
- Housing starts dropped ~5%mom in September reaching a four month low and missing every estimate in Bloomberg’s survey.
- Pending home sales were down ~7% to its lowest since the series began in 2021.
- Builder confidence is at a 14-year low, and residential construction has weighed on GDP in five of the last six quarters.
- Mortgage rates are at an almost three-year high on the back of the Iran war.
UK – Inflation reached the highest level in almost a year in September cementing market expectations for a rate hike next month.
- CPI MoM (Sep / Aug / Est): 0.4% / 0.5% / 0.3%
- CPI YoY (Sep / Aug / Est): 3.5% / 3.1% / 3.4%
- CPI Core YoY (Sep / Aug / Est): 2.8% / 2.6% / 2.8%
- CPI Services YoY (Sep / Aug / Est): 3.7% / 3.4% / 3.6%
Japan
- Exports YoY (Sep / Aug / Est): 16.7% / 19.3% / 21.3%
- Imports YoY (Sep / Aug / Est): 18.9% / 28.0% / 20.4%
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,116/oz vs US$4,131/oz previous
Gold ETFs 101.5moz vs 101.4moz previous
Platinum US$1,629/oz vs US$1,650/oz previous
Palladium US$1,088/oz vs US$1,115/oz previous
Silver US$57.2/oz vs US$57.5/oz previous
Silver ETFs 804.9moz vs 804.7moz previous
Rhodium US$9,100/oz vs US$9,100/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,395/t vs US$14,380/t previous
Aluminium US$3,031/t vs US$3,029/t previous
Nickel US$16,030/t vs US$15,630/t previous
Zinc US$3,729/t vs US$3,721/t previous
Lead US$1,900/t vs US$1,898/t previous
Tin US$51,190/t vs US$51,000/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$110.2/bbl vs US$110.1/bbl previous
Natural Gas €88.0/MWh vs €88.5/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $90.2/lb vs $90.2/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$91.4/t vs US$91.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$481.3/t vs US$481.3/t
HCC FOB Australia US$267.0/t vs US$266.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$149.5/t vs US$150.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$34,620/t vs US$34,620/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$110,642/t vs US$110,935/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$15,047/t vs US$15,196/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,505/t vs US$1,505/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,045/t vs US$1,045/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,835/mtu vs US$1,835/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,775/mtu vs US$2,775/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$243/lb vs US$243/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$25.9/kg vs US$25.9/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$176/t vs US$176/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,917/t vs US$2,917/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,175/t vs US$1,175/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,375.0/kg vs US$4,375.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$450.0/kg vs US$450.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.0/lb vs US$33.0/lb
EV & Battery news:
Electric truck sales rise to >33,000 in September
- Diesel consumption is expected to fall by >10% this year in China as EV trucks gain share (Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute)
- Beijing is targeting 40% for heavy electric vehicles by 2030.
- We struggle to understand how Electric trucks compete with diesel in many scenarios due to the heavy weight of batteries required for most haulage runs.
- We notice that one drinks supplier in London which recently purchased and trialled an electric lorry has returned to diesel for the time being.
- China is pushing hard to grow exports of heavy electric trucks, but this is one area where we would prefer to watch China to more extensively test and develop EV delivery trucks at home for the time being.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -1.6% | -3.8% | Freeport-McMoRan | -1.3% | -4.9% |
| Rio Tinto | -1.5% | -4.9% | Vale | -0.7% | -2.6% |
| Glencore | -0.7% | -5.4% | Newmont Mining | -1.0% | 1.1% |
| Anglo American | -0.4% | -4.8% | Fortescue | 0.0% | -0.4% |
| Antofagasta | 0.7% | -7.2% | Teck Resources | 1.3% | -4.2% |
Andrada Mining (ATM LN) 7p, Mkt Cap £150m – H1 financial results boosted by increased tin production and higher prices
- Andrada Mining reports that a combination of a 13% increase in tin production from its Uis mine in Namibia and higher tin prices has increased FY 2027 H1 revenues by 80% to £20.6m and delivered an after tax profit of £2.5m reversing the £3.0m loss recorded for H1 FY 2026.
- CEO, Anthony Viljoen, described the interim results as “a significant turning point for Andrada, with strong operational performance at Uis translating into a step-change in profitability and cash generation … [which has] … been achieved ahead of our next phase of production increase due to the fully funded plant upgrades including the installation of the ore-sorting circuit at Uis that is progressing on schedule”.
- The company also reports a closing cash balance for 31st August of £15.6m which will support the current expansion programme including the installation of a new crushing circuit and ore-sorting.
- Ore sorting “is projected to increase annual tin concentrate production by approximately 50% to 70% to approximately 2,500 to 3,000 tonnes, equivalent to approximately 1,500 to 1,900 tonnes of contained tin per annum”.
- Exploration of the company’s Lithium Ridge prospect has extended the known strike length of mineralisation “from six to nine kilometres … [and] … identified additional mineralised pegmatites beyond the principal trend”.
- Elsewhere in Namibia, the Competition Commission’s approval of the BWCAM earn-in removes “a key regulatory milestone in developing Brandberg West … [which is described as] … a strategic tungsten, copper and tin opportunity”.
- Brandberg West will be progressed with additional exploration and metallurgical test work, including ore-sorting and bulk sampling “to determine the potential development routes for the historical material and underlying mineralised system”.
- Mr. Viljoen summarised the near-term outlook saying that Andrada Mining starts “the second half of the financial year from a considerably stronger position with a critical minerals platform of three assets or value creators”.
Conclusion: H1 financial results benefit from increased tin production at the Uis mine and from higher tin prices as the company prepares for expansion of the mine’s processing capacity and advances its projects at Lithium Ridge and Brandberg West.
Aterian* (ATN LN) 23p, Mkt Cap £4.6m – Aterian to establish production of tantalum, niobium, coltan and other elements in Rwanda following license renewals
- Aterian report the approval of a four-year extension of its exploration licence for its Kinunga Project (HCK) in the south of Rwanda by the RMB ‘Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board’.
- Management will now start on the “evaluation of a staged tantalum–niobium development opportunity in weathered pegmatites, alongside further exploration of lithium mineralisation in fresh rock.“
- “Initial metallurgical testwork is underway, while discussions with potential technical and development partners are progressing.”
- The team are looking at how best to process the tantalum and niobium-bearing minerals from the upper weathered portions of the Kinunga Project pegmatites.
- “Initial testwork is underway, focusing on tantalum recovery from fine and ultra-fine material, which artisanal processing typically loses to the tailings.“
- Wash plant design and optimisation (Kinunga):
- Management are looking to install a wash plant to better capture tantalum and niobium mineralisation from the weathered pegmatites.
- Lithium potential:
- The team will also focus on evaluating the potential to extract lithium in spodumene from the unweathered portion of the pegmatites.
- Aterian are also looking to advance the use of fine and ultra-fine material recovery technology in modular form on stockpiles and tailings on the licenses.
- Metallurgical testing will assess:
- Particle-size distribution and tantalum and niobium grades across the different size fractions.
- Mineral composition and liberation of the tantalum- and niobium-bearing minerals.
- Recovery performance across the relevant size fractions, with particular attention to fine and ultra-fine material.
- Concentrate grade, impurity levels and suitability for potential buyers.
- Washing, disaggregation and screening requirements for weathered pegmatite material.
- The potential integration of a principal gravity separation circuit with complementary fines recovery.
- Further work will be done to evaluate how much water will be required alongside operating costs and tailings management.
- Partnership and staged development:
- Management are discussing “a potential project-level partnership under which specialist partners could contribute processing and development expertise, equipment and funding.“
- Coltan: coltan recovery from the upper weathered material would complement the future mining of lithium on the site.
- Musasa exploration programme (Rwanda Western Province).
- Aterian is defining a proposed exploration programme and expenditure for the enlarged Musasa project area. Further details on the work programme and budget will follow.
Conclusion: The confirmation and extension of the Kinunga Project (HCK) and Musasa licenses should propel Aterian’s trading in Rwanda along with the establishment of Aterian as a production entity with cash flow and profit in the region.
*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian
Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 3.2p, Mkt Cap £35m – Latest drilling at Manna Hill identifies new mineralised structures
- Cobra Resources reports that recent drilling at its Manna Hill copper project in South Australia has intersected extensions of the Blue Rose skarn mineralisation to the west and identified further new mineralised skarns 500m north and 200m south of the Blue Rose Skarn.
- Drilling is continuing with 32 holes (>2,800m) “completed to date, with the programme being extended to 64 holes with an additional six holes testing the porphyry alteration intersected in MHRC0029 and four holes to test the strike extent of the Shadow Rose discovery”.
- Recent drilling results highlighted in today’s announcement include:
- A 32m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.7% copper and 0.07g/t gold from a depth of 52m in hole MHRC-0029 which extends the known footprint of the Blue Rose skarn westwards; and
- A 58m interval of a new zone of mineralisation, identified as the ‘Shadow Rose Skarn’ located 200m south of Blue Rose in hole MHRC-0025 at an average grade of 0.46% copper and 0.15g/t gold from 12m depth: and
- A second newly identified skarn, the ‘Neptune Rose Skarn’ located 500m north of Blue Rose where hole MHRC-0024 intersected 2m at a grade of 0.51g/t gold from 98m depth and a deeper structure averaging 0.39% copper and 0.06g/t gold over 10m from 104m depth.
- Today’s announcement describes the potential for the “combination of skarn mineralisation, copper in non-skarn rocks and elevated potassium is consistent with a possible interconnected intrusive-hydrothermal system, including a potential porphyry-style component”.
- Welcoming the results, Managing Director, Rupert Verco, explained that they have delivered “new discoveries, high-grade, shallow depths, width and … [are] … a significant technical advancement towards defining the porphyry source”.
- Mr. Verco said that “After a short break, the team is back out drilling where additional holes will aim to further the potential scale within the Blue rose corridor and commence our first drilling at the Netley Hill porphyry target”.
Conclusion: Early results from the continuing drilling at Manna Hill show additional mineralised structures and the potential for associated porphyry-hosted mineralisation. Investigating these opportunities is likely to require substantial additional drilling and exploration to assess their scale.
Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) 94.2p, Mkt Cap £190m – Boosting the senior management team
- Guardian Metal Resources has strengthened its operating management team with the appointment of a senior mining engineer as Chief Operating Officer and an experienced geologist and environmental manager as VP Environment and Permitting.
- David Hendricks, who formerly worked with “Kinross, Calibre Mining, and most recently as COO at Centerra Gold” is a mining engineer with over 30 years “experience developing, constructing, and operating mines across the Americas, Africa, and Turkey”.
- Ron Espell, brings “over 30 years’ experience across the Americas, Australia, Southeast Asia, and Africa” to his new role as VP Environment and Permitting having previously “held senior roles at Homestake Mining, Barrick Gold, McEwen Mining, and American Vanadium, specializing in corporate environmental management, ISO 14001 systems, mine design, permitting, and regulatory compliance”.
- Welcoming the appointments Executive Chairperson, J.T. Starzecki, said that David Hendricks “brings a wealth of experience across mine development, construction and operations, particularly in Nevada… at a pivotal time for the Company as we continue to build on the significant progress being made across both Pilot Mountain and Tempiute”.
- He said that Ron Espell “has been instrumental in our permitting efforts to date … [and his] … substantial environmental and regulatory expertise, particularly within the state of Nevada, will continue to be critical as we advance our projects towards production.”
Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) 489p, Mkt Cap £2.5bn – 3Q26 results with Mara Rosa operations recover with San Jose hit by weather, FY26 guidance reiterated
- Hochschild reported 3Q26 production results for its gold/silver operations in Peru, Argentina, and Brazil.
- Attributable production 74.0koz GE (54.7koz Au, 1.5moz Ag), -3%qoq and +3%yoy, including:
- Inmaculada (Peru) production 45.2koz GE, flat qoq and -12%yoy; annual guidance reiterated at 174-185koz GE (9M26: 139koz)
- San Jose (51%, Argentina) production 11.8koz GE (att), -27%qoq and -28%yoy, affected by poor weather and grade variability; grades are expected to recover 4Q26 (9M26:42koz, att)
- Mara Rosa (Brazil) production 17.1koz GE, +17%qoq and 3.8x yoy (low base), with new mining contractor reaching full capacity and better plant reliability; September was the best month of the year with 8.0koz GE produced; annual guidance reiterated at 67-80koz GE (9M26: 45koz).
- 9M26 attributable production 225.8koz GE, -5%yoy.
- Realised prices were US$3,840/oz Au and US$61.8/oz Ag in Q3, against 9M averages of US$4,063/oz Au and US$73.0/oz Ag.
- Monte Do Carmo (Brazil) on track for FID by YE26.
- The revised EIA for Royropata (Peru) was submitted in August.
- Cash and short-term investments were ~US$349m (30 June: US$309m) and net cash was ~US$91m (US$51m), a US$40m qoq build.
- FY26 guidance reiterated 300-328koz GE, implying 74-102koz GE in 4Q26.
Lithium Africa (LAF CN) C$2.0, Mkt Cap C$36m – Two non binding funding offers for the Springbook Lithium Project (SA) including a US$60m investment
- Lithium Africa announced two non-binding offers to fund the Springbook Lithium Project in Northern Cape, South Africa.
- The first offer is US$60m in cash from an unnamed lithium processor backed by a Fortune Global 500 group.
- Cash investment in return for 55% in a new HoldCo with a 70% in Namli that owns the project (the 30% balance is held by Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment partner).
- The proposal implies a US$70m pre-money valuation for 100% of Namli.
- The Company would retain 45% of the HoldCo (31.5% net in Namli), with an implied value of ~US$49m.
- US$60m would be spent at project level including ~US$10m on district drilling and ~US$50m on a larger processing plant.
- The investment is conditional on due diligence including confirmatory drilling, definitive agreements, TSXV and shareholder approval, and regulatory consents.
- The second offer is a prepayment facility from a major commodity trading house with 100% offtake for the first three years.
- The facility size is not disclosed.
- Offers are described as complementary with the prepay funding near-term small-scale production, and the equity funds district drilling and the larger plant.
- Separately, Lithium Africa is in discussions with more than 20 counterparties covering offtake, prepayment, vendor finance and project equity.
- Near term guidance is for FID 1H27 and first concentrate in 2H27.
- Springbok sits outside the 50/50 Ganfeng exploration JV.
- The stock jumped 38% on the news.
PLS (PLS AU) A$2.9, Mkt Cap A$9.5bn – US$700m 8.00% notes issued to fund growth
- PLS issues US$700m 8.00% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2032.
- That compares to 6.875% yield secured on US$500m notes issued in April.
- Funding to be used for growth projects including A$1.9B P2000 Project lifting Pilgangoora capacity to ~2.0Mtpa SC.
- Additionally, A600-680M infrastructure announced over FY27-29.
- PLS announced P2000 FID earlier this month.
Rainbow Rare Earths* (RBW LN) 21.4p, mkt Cap £150m – Results highlight progress towards REE production at Phalaborwa and Uberaba tailings projects
(Mosaic hold 51% of the Uberaba REE project with Rainbow holding 49%. At Phalaborwa Rainbow hold 70% with 30% to be held by Bosveld Phosphates)
- Rainbow report results for the year ended 30 June.
- Admin costs US$3.8m vs $3.8m yoy – unchanged.
- Research costs $0.54m vs $0.26m yoy
- Change in fair value of royalty financing liability -$3.0m vs +$1.2m yoy
- Total Ecora toyalty financing liability is -$10.3m
- Rainbow raised US$10.0m, with a US$1.5m equity placing and US$8.5m of proceeds from the Ecora royalty financing.
- A gain arose in FY 2025 from a temporary fall in forecast REE. This liability rises as REE prices gain.
- Total group loss -$7.3m vs -$3.2m yoy
Conclusion: Rainbow made steady and positive progress towards the future financing and development of the Phalaborwa REE project in South Africa.
Rainbow is one of very few companies which is able to extract and process to metal oxides. The recent incorporation of a Solvent Extraction’ separation circuit from Neo Performance Materials along with technical support and offtake should enable the publication of a revised PFS in Q4 incorporating the initial SX test work, ahead of the DFS in H1 2027.
*The SP Angel analyst has visited the Rainbow pilot process plant in Johannesburg
Talisman Metals (TLM LN) 8.5p, Mkt Cap £6.1m – Initial drilling results from Tirzzit, Morocco
- Talisman Metals reports initial assay results from its continuing drilling at the Tirzzit project in Morocco.
- The drilling is investigating “the extent, grade and geometry of the Late Precambrian basal series strata at Tirzzit … to support a future resource estimate”.
- Results reported today are:
- A 2m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.56% copper and 64g/t silver from a depth of 8m in hole TRC-01; and
- A 10m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.31% copper and <6g/t silver from a depth of 2m in hole TRC-02; and
- A 4m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.18% copper and 6g/t silver from a depth of 51m in hole TRC-03; and
- A 5m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.31% copper and 7g/t silver from a depth of 83m in hole TRC-04.
- CEO, Tim McCutcheon, said that the results “confirm the existence and location of copper-bearing sedimentary strata and we believe that as we complete the drill program, we will uncover stratigraphic folds within the basal series that bear wider zones of mineralisation, as is common in analogous deposits from around the region”.
Conclusion: Early drilling results from Tirzzit demonstrate the presence of the targeted lithologies and verify that they are mineralised. Drilling is continuing to help improve understanding of the geological setting.
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
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Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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