SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 11th February 2026

Nickel gains as Indonesia cuts production quotas

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) – EIB to support studies on lithium production at the Uis mine, Namibia

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – Company highlights improving policy responsiveness in Zimbabwe

Fulcrum Metals (FMET LN) – Scoping study for a pilot plant for the Teck Hughes project

Kazera Global (KZG LN) – Progress report on operations

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – $20m royalty signed on course for closing the Tulu Kapi Project funding this month

Metals One (MET1 LN) – Supporting funding for exploration of the Chikundo copper project in Tanzania

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Flotation plant for the Zulu lithium project

Red Rock Resources (RRR LN) – NDA on a potential DRC project

Nickel – The world’s largest nickel mine in Indonesia was told to cut production as authorities are looking at controlling supply to prop up prices. (Bloomberg)

• PT Weda Bay Nickel has been notified it will get 12mt ore production quota for 2026, down from 42mt in 2025.
• The mine is owned by Tsingshan Holding, Eramet and PT Aneka Tambang.
• Eramet confirmed the size of the reduction.
• The news caught operations off guard that initially planned to expand production to >60mt supporting nearby processing facilities.
• The Company was forced to import ore from Philippines due to a lack of local supply.
• Earlier Indonesia flagged plans to cut mine output to ~260mt this year, down from 379mt targeted in 2025.
• Nickel was up as much as 2.8% in London this morning.

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel’s John Meyer

Worth reading – Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.1915/eur vs 1.1915/eur previous. Yen 153.29/$ vs 155.54/$. SAr 15.873/$ vs 15.931/$. $1.368/gbp vs $1.368/gbp. 0.710/aud vs 0.707/aud. CNY 6.912/$ vs 6.913/$.

Dollar Index 96.60 vs   96.90 previous.

Economics

US – NFPs and unemployment are out later today (65k and 4.4% est v 50k and 4.4% Dec)

• Government officials including National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett warned that jobs are likely to come in weak going forward that may prompt the Fed to speed up rate cuts.
• The US$ retreated for a fourth consecutive day while bond yields also pulled back with 10y rates at their lowest in about a month.

Retail sales came in lower than expected in December.

• Strong Black Friday discounts probably pulled some sales forward. (Bloomberg)
• Expectations of a rate cut slightly gone following the report.
• Odds of three cuts gone up to ~40%, with two already priced in.
• Retail Sales (%mom, Dec / Nov / Est): 0.0 / 0.6 / 0.4
• Retail Sales ex Auto (%mom, Dec / Nov / Est): 0.0 / 0.5 / 0.4

China – Consumer prices growth pulls back strongly with producers’ prices remaining in a deflation.

• Most economists forecasts a recovery in consumer prices this year, although, downward pressure remains a challenged in the absence of a strong pick up in domestic demand (Bloomberg)
• Core CPI hit the lowest level in sex months (0.8%).
• CPI (%yoy, Jan / Dec / Est): 0.2 / 0.8 / 0.4
• PPI (%yoy, Jan / Dec / Est): -1.4 / -1.9 / -1.5

Iran/US – President Trump sad that he would consider military action against Iran if negotiations fail.

• “Either we make a deal, or we have to do something very tough – like last time”, Trump said.
• Trump suggested he is considering deploying another aircraft carrier in the Middle East to build up pressure.
• “We have an armada there and maybe another one on the way”.
• Benjamin NNetanyahu is travelling to the US to meet Trump for an update on the most recent round of talks with Iran as well to provide intelligence on ballistic missile programme.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$5,049/oz vs US$5,047/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.1moz vs 100.1moz previous

Platinum US$2,152/oz vs US$2,092/oz previous

Palladium US$1,760/oz vs US$1,739/oz previous

Silver US$83.5/oz vs US$82.1/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 842.6moz vs 842.6moz previous

Rhodium US$10,400/oz vs US$10,400/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,204/t vs US$13,098/t previous

Aluminium US$3,124/t vs US$3,092/t previous

Nickel US$17,940/t vs US$17,135/t previous

Zinc US$3,427/t vs US$3,361/t previous

Lead US$1,983/t vs US$1,964/t previous

Tin US$50,600/t vs US$48,690/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$69.6/bbl vs US$69.0/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices remain elevated due to Iran-US tensions, even as the API estimated US inventory w/w builds of 13.4mb to oil and 4.7mb to gasoline stocks and a 4.8mb draw to distillates, reversing the prior week’s weather-related changes.
• European energy prices were stable as France’s nuclear generation fell 7% w/w to 76% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity, with cumulative January output down 1.5% y/y to 38.2TWh.
• The EIA’s February STEO reiterated forecasts for global liquid fuels consumption growth to increase from 1.1mb/d in 2025 to 1.2mb/d this year and 1.3mb/d in 2027. Global liquid fuels production growth is expected to slow from 3mb/d last year to 1.6mb/d in 2026 and 0.9mb/d in 2027, causing inventories to rise by 3.1mb/d in 2026 and 2.7mb/d in 2027.

Natural Gas €32.5/MWh vs €33.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $88.3/lb vs $86.2/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$99.9/t vs US$100.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.4/t vs US$466.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$244.5/t vs US$245.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$116.3/t vs US$117.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$124,428/t vs US$116,441/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$19,460/t vs US$19,455/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,900/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,648/mtu vs US$1,603/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$128/lb vs US$126/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$26.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$263/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,136/t vs US$1,135/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company News:

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) 3.9p, Mkt Cap £76m – EIB to support studies on lithium production at the Uis mine, Namibia

• Yesterday afternoon Andrada Mining reported that it has received the support of the European Investment Bank to accelerate the feasibility study for the expansion of its Uis mine in Namibia into lithium production.
• Under a grant from the EU’s OACPS (Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States) Technical Assistance partnership, “Consulting services valued at up to EUR2 million (£1.74 million) will be provided through the Critical Raw Materials Technical Assistance Facility … [and accelerate] … the Project’s pathway toward bankable feasibility level and ultimate implementation”.
• The grant is intended to fund “key items of the feasibility project, predominantly metallurgical testing and related infrastructure studies”.
• The lithium development plan “aims to produce 50 000 tonnes per annum … of lithium (petalite) concentrate from Andrada’s Uis Mine” which produced around ~930t of tin in concentrate during the FY to 28^th February 2025 ahead of a planned doubling of capacity to ~40 000 tonnes of ore per month.
• The petalite concentrate produced during the first phase of the planned lithium operation “will be produced for the technical lithium market … [and may lead to] … a second phase of development aimed at supplying the lithium refining industry with concentrate for producing lithium chemicals for the fast-growing battery industry”.
• CEO, Anthony Viljoen, described the “partnership with the European Investment Bank … [as] … a major milestone for Andrada … [which] … materially accelerates our lithium development strategy”.
• Mr. Viljoen also explained that the project “will deliver strong local economic and social benefits for Namibian citizens … and contribute meaningfully to the Namibian economy”.

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 30p, Mkt Cap £572m – Company highlights improving policy responsiveness in Zimbabwe

• Zimbabwe is becoming more responsive to industry concerns with fiscal stability key to attracting foreign investment, Caledonia CEO Mark Learmonth emphasised during the SA Mining Indaba conference.
• Caledonia highlighted the country has a strong base to attract mining investors including legal protections, skilled labour, a good registry, and adequate utilities.
• Fiscal stability will be crucial in maintaining momentum.
• The Company said the government is listening to the industry as the recent example with changes to the royalty rate indicated.
• The government recently suggested to increase the rate to 10%, up from 5%, for gold above $2,501/oz.
• Following a pushback from the industry, the government adjusted the initiative for the rate to kick in above $5,000/oz.
• The Company also highlighted improving operating conditions with faster USD receipts.
• “International investors understand the fiscal risks, but they also see the potential rewards… Stability in fiscal policy is key, and we believe that is achievable in Zimbabwe,” Learmonth added.

Fulcrum Metals (FMET LN) 8.75p, Mkt Cap £12m – Scoping study for a pilot plant for the Teck Hughes project

• Fulcrum Metals reports that it has started a scoping study for a pilot-plant at its Teck Hughes Mine tailings project near Kirkland Lake, Ontario.
• The study which will “evaluate the technical, logistical and execution requirements for a pilot-scale leaching plant” and will be run with Test Design Implement Solutions supported by Extrakt Process Solutions providing expertise on the planned cyanide-free extraction technology and by Bechtel Energy Technologies & Solutions.
• Pilot plant scale assessment “is an important technical and commercial de-risking step for all tailings reprocessing projects” and the decision to proceed comes after the announcement earlier this week of metallurgical test results from the project which showed improved recovery rates resulting from additional grinding and elevated leaching temperatures.
• CEO, Ryan Mee, explained that “Pilot plant success is one of the most important de-risking moments in any project lifecycle … [and said that the] … standalone pilot plant will serve as a module for flexible upscaling of our existing and potential future projects”.
• The scoping study is expected to take around 10 weeks implying that results may become available by late April or early May.

Kazera Global (KZG LN) 1.25p, Mkt Cap £13m – Progress report on operations

• Kazera Global, which raised £1.3m at 1.5p to progress its portfolio of heavy mineral sans (Whale Head Minerals) and diamond assets (Deep Blue Minerals) in South Africa in November reports an acceleration of activity at Whale Head Minerals post the “South African Christmas and summer holiday period”.
• Starting this week, working hours have been extended to allow “mining and processing activities to operate across all daylight hours. This expansion is expected to increase production of HMS … [heavy mineral sand] … to over 4,000 tonnes per month”.
• Plant upgrades currently underway are “expected to improve processing efficiency and enhance the quality of the HMS end product, which is currently delivering titanium dioxide (‘TiO₂‘) content in the region of 32%”.
• Today’s announcement explains that the “expanded mining schedule is expected to simultaneously generate increased volumes of diamond-bearing gravel, which will processed at the Company’s Deep Blue Minerals diamond project, supporting the planned growth in diamond recovery volumes”.
• At the “new high-potential diamond block … [in the Alexander Bay mining area which awarded in September a] … recently acquired bulldozer is now operational on site and has been used to remove overburden across an initial mining section. Mining activities have reached the target diamond-bearing gravel layer, and the Company expects processing of this material to commence shortly”.
• As well as the progress at Whale Head Minerals and Deep Blue Minerals, CEO Dennis Edmonds, explained that “The Company is also strengthening its South Africa-based operational team to support the next phase of growth”.
• This includes the appointment of “two South Africa-based operational specialists, including a senior technician supporting both WHM and DBM and assisting with the optimisation of production. These appointments are intended to ensure the Group has sufficient operational and technical capacity to support planned growth and development activities”.

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 1.6p, Mkt Cap £151m – $20m royalty signed on course for closing the Tulu Kapi Project funding this month

BUY – TP (Under Review)

• The Company updates on the status of funding for the Tulu Kapi Gold Project, Ethiopia.
• The team signed a $20m (US$) equity ranking royalty with Chancery Royalty Ltd.
• The remaining $30m of equity risk capital is in the progress of being fully signed up this month.
  • $10m covering 2y development costs to be settled in KEFI shares at the then market price when applicable costs fall due
  • $20m in additional equity risk gold royalties issued to two other royalty investors
• The latest $340m Tulu Kapi Project funding structure includes:
  • $240m secured bank debt (Finalised)
  • $20m government equity contribution earned through project infrastructure (Finalised)
  • $30m KEFI equity placings in 2025 (Finalised)
  • $20m Chancery Royalty contribution (Finalised)
  • $10m new KEFI shares covering development costs (Pending)
  • $20m additional equity ranking gold royalties (Pending)
• Separately, the Company highlights potential to attract up to $46m in BIRR linked redeemable preference shares.
• Additional funds are earmarked for cost-overrun-reserves and exploration among other things.
• On the ground, the first phase of community resettlement compensation has been largely paid with remaining settlements now progressing.
• All new replacement lands have been confirmed and the house construction contractor for replacement housing mobilised.
• Offsite infrastructure works funded by the government are being carried.
• Lycopodium fixed price engineering and procurement contact to be signed this month.
• BCM, a mining contractor, re-tendering completed and a finalised contract awarded.

Conclusion: The latest update confirms further momentum towards full financial close at Tulu Kapi, with the US$20m Chancery royalty now signed and the remaining US$30m equity risk capital expected to be fully subscribed this month, completing the US$340m funding package. Alongside progress on resettlement, government-funded infrastructure, and imminent finalisation of key EPC and mining contracts, the project is getting closer to launching the full construction phase. We are updating our TP to take into account the latest capital structure and remain buyers of the stock highlighting strong FCF generation capacity of the ~1Moz reserve (2.12g/t) as the Company is about to clear the final hurdle and move into development.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Metals One (MET1 LN) 2.05p, Mkt Cap £20m – Supporting funding for exploration of the Chikundo copper project in Tanzania

• Metals One has confirmed its intention to invest a further A$1m in the forthcoming fundraising of its 16.9% owned Evolution Energy Minerals.
• Evolution Energy Minerals will apply the proceeds to “exploration of the Chikundo Copper Project, resource development activities at the Chilalo Graphite Project, costs associated with the fundraising, short term loan repayments and for general working capital”.
• “Craig Moulton, the Company’s Chairman, remains an executive director of Evolution and therefore the Metals One Subscription is considered a Related Party Transaction under the AIM Rules”.
• Daniel Maling, Managing Director of Metals One emphasised their support for “Evolution and … [said that Metals One is] … pleased to participate in this fundraising’.

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.03p, Mkt Cap £3.8m – Flotation plant for the Zulu lithium project

• Premier African Minerals, which raised £1m earlier this year to install a new flotation plant at the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe reports that it has now agreed terms with Xinhai Technology Processing to acquire, install and commission a 15-20tph spodumene flotation plant.
• The agreement sets a framework for the delivery of the plant within 15 days, and includes process performance guarantees “to achieve targeted spodumene concentrate grade and recoveries at a design throughput of 15-20 tonnes per hour, subject to feed meeting agreed specification” as well as a “A staged payment structure, with a portion of the commissioning fees withheld and only payable upon achievement of agreed performance and throughput criteria”.
• Today’s announcement confirms that the “concrete foundations have already been completed” in advance of the delivery of the plant.
• Acknowledging that “this agreement with the Contractor has taken a little longer than planned … [Managing Director, Graham Hill said that the agreed terms] … appropriately aligns Contractor incentives with delivery of the processing performance we require and represents a further step in the Company’s ongoing focus on stabilising and optimising processing performance at the Project”.

Red Rock Resources (RRR LN) 0.03p, Mkt Cap £2.5m – NDA on a potential DRC project

• Red Rock Resources reports that it has signed a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) “and started its due diligence assessment involving external consultants of a privately held potential copper-cobalt mining project in the Kambove region of Katanga”.
• Explaining that the company will elaborate further after the due diligence, Chairman, Andrew Bell said that the project might be one “which meets our requirements for all potential copper/cobalt projects in the DRC … in terms of prospective grade and size … [and] … a reliable counterparty that will agree reasonable terms”
• Mr. Bell also indicated that it “should be able to generate production either immediately or on a short timeframe” and confirmed that the company is continuing “to review other licence opportunities”.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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