SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 6th January 2026

Copper hits new record as market tightens on US inventory hoarding and supply disruptions

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – Zimbabwe’s gold royalty plans leave Bilboes development plan intact

Champion Iron Ore (CIA AU) – Acquisition of Rana Gruber Iron Ore Mine, Norway

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Champion looks Scandinavia to diversify iron ore production for growing EU green steel market

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) – Receipt of US$10m as 2^nd installment from sale of the S African chrome and PGM operation

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – BUY, TP under review – KEFI Shifts from Funding to Delivery with Tulu Kapi Now Underway

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) – Optimisation studies support progression of Zanaga

Copper ($13,120/t) hits new record as market tightens on US inventory hoarding and supply disruptions

• Copper prices have held over $13,000/t, having hit record highs of $13,390/t.
• Major supply disruptions have pushed 2026 into an expected deficit of >300kt, having been in surplus in 2025.
• Adding to mine-based supply tightness is a major move of inventory into the US over sustained tariff concerns.
• Trump had U-turned on cathode and concentrate tariffs in 2025, but traders continue to price a premium into COMEX-based pricing.
• As a result, metal is moving out of Asia and into the US, tightening spot supply in high copper demand economies like China.
• Copper may be vulnerable to a pull-back should these tariff concerns dissipate and metal flows back into Asia from the US.
• However, mine supply disruptions are becoming increasingly frequent, with grade decline and CAPEX inflation continuing to weigh on new output.

Gold ($4,450/oz) presses higher as Trump’s move for Venezuela exacerbates Chinese tensions

• Gold prices jumped 2.5% yesterday in the first day of trading since Trump’s extraction of Maduro from Venezuelan soil.
• Gold rallied alongside silver, which has jumped back to $78/oz, with platinum and palladium also rallying.
• The dollar is flat/lower, whilst US treasuries remain weak on consistent deficit concerns and a resilient labour market.
• China, who has been investing heavily into Venezuela and sees the countries oil reserves as a long-term solution to their limited domestic supply, criticized Trump’s move vocally.
• Beijing’s foreign ministry stated that ‘China is deeply shocked and strongly condemns the US’ blatant use of force against a sovereign state and its action against its president.’
• Beijing delegates had been in Caracas to meet Maduro on the day of his arrest.
• Foreign affairs analysts see Trump’s move as raising the likelihood of a nearer-term Chinese move for Taiwan.

Conclusion: We see recent events in Venezuela as particularly bullish for gold. Gold has been partly driven by continued BRICs central bank buying following the start of the Ukraine war. This was potentially triggered by the US freezing Russian foreign reserves. As a result, countries considered ‘unfriendly’ to the US, notably China and Iran, have been bolstering their gold holdings as an alternative to US treasuries. We remind readers that 2025 marked the first time in recent history when global central banks held more gold than dollars. We would expect China to respond to Trump’s direct attack on their economic interests in Venezuela, specifically his move to secure oil reserves previously earmarked for Chinese production/refining. Ultimately, a renewed round of PBoC gold buying is expected as geopolitical tensions escalate, with gold likely to test recent record highs of $4,550/oz.

Gold names we like:

• Kefi Minerals* (Finalising financing in Ethiopia): CLICK FOR PDF
• Anglo Asian Mining* (top-class mine builders in Azerbaijan funding longer-term copper growth story)
• Orosur Mining* (early-stage exploration in Colombia with high-grade MRE due before year-end): CLICK FOR PDF

• Endeavour Mining (High-margin West African producer at cash flow inflection point, strong growth prospect in Assafou project – 329kozpa at $892/oz AISC)
• G Mining (Mine builders funding development of large-scale Oko West via recent build cash flows)
• Rio2+ (Heap leach development story in Chile due for first production 1H26 and 300kzpa potential on water agreement, added copper production profile with Condestable mine)
• Turaco Gold+(Cote d’Ivoire development story adding ounces)
• Minerals260 (Tim Goyder-backed Australian development project targeting >3moz open pittable MRE)
• WIA Gold+ (Namibian development story, 3moz open pit led by ex-Centamin team)
• Landore Resources (Fresh management team currently optimising the BAM Gold Deposit, Ontario)
• Tolu Minerals (Restarting production at Tolukuma mine in PNG to fund widespread regional exploration programme)
• GBM Resources (Ian Middlemas-led Australian development story building on current 1.84moz MRE)
• Sun Peak Metals (Ex-Bisha team exploring for VMS deposits in Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia)
• C3 Metals (Drilling for gold in Jamaica alongside copper porphyry targeting)
• Desoto Resources+ (Exploration in Guinea led by ex-Predictive team)

*SP Angel acts as either Nomad/Broker or Both. +An SP Angel analyst holds shares

Indonesia – Plans for domestic metal exchange to control prices of key metals advance

• Indonesia continues to be tightening government control of its metal industry.
• The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association ‘APNI’ plans to launch the Indonesia Metals Exchange ‘IME’ starting with nickel pig iron.
• Indonesia may also reclassify by-product for royalties.
• The authorities are also seen curbing oversupply of nickel ores in generated by massive formal and some informal Chinese investment.
• Production restrictions, mine closures and expected to further curb nickel and tin production this year.
• Requirements for in-country mineral processing may also have some impact.
• Environmental contamination from mining around the coast of Indonesia.
• Scrap processing is a major issue with radioactive materials including Cesium-137 identified in scrap materials and potentially contaminating seafood exports.

US list of geopolitics issues to resolve

• Given the relative success of the air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and the extraction of Maduro, Trump may feel emboldened to take further action.

• • Venezuela – work-in-progress
  • Cuba – on Trump agenda
  • Iran – public demonstrations and seeds for new revolution. US and Israeli airpower should stop the regime from bombing its own people.
  • Russia – US working towards a $50/bbl oil price to bust Russian economy
  • China – greater US control of oil makes it more risky for China to invade Taiwan
  • North Korea – on later agenda
  • Myanmar – on later agenda
  • Yemen – Saudi Arabia is containing the conflict
  • Israel – ongoing strikes against Hamas and Hezbollah
  • Mali / Burkina Faso – ISIS / Al Queda affiliated bandits disrupting the Sahael region. Could make easy targets for US special forces.
  • DRC – M23 (Rwanda) – on later agenda
  • Sudan – on later agenda

Currencies

US$1.1774/eur vs 1.1690/eur previous. Yen 156.28/$ vs 156.99/$. SAr 16.706/$ vs 16.484/$. $1.348/gbp vs $1.346/gbp. 0.671/aud vs 0.668/aud. CNY 7.009/$ vs 6.979/$

Dollar Index 98.02 vs   98.67 previous

Economics

France – Consumer prices in the second largest economy in the Eurozone slowed to 0.7%yoy as energy costs fell.

• That is down from 0.8% reported the previous month and in line with market expectations.
• Headline number was dragged by a fall in manufactured goods prices (-0.4%) versus elevated inflation in services prices (+2.2%).

Germany – Inflation numbers are due later today with estimates for a pull back in the headline number to 2.2%, down from 2.6%.

• Regional data released so far for December confirmed the trend lower.

Iran – At least 35 killed and more than 1,200 people have been detained in protests that were on for more than a week now.

• Demonstrations are reported to have reached over 250 locations in 27 of 31 provinces in Iran.
• Protests kicked off on December 28 when shopkeepers in capital Tehran staged a strike over high prices and economic stagnation.
• Last Friday, President Trump warned Iran the further killings of peaceful protesters may see the US coming to their rescue.

Venezuela – Nicolaz Maduro is facing charges in the US court including narco-terrorism and possession of weapons.

• Maduro pleaded not guilty in New York yesterday.
• Delcy Rodriguez has been sworn as an acting President in Caracas yesterday.
• Rodriguez acted as VP since 2018 and is a former Bolivarian National Intelligence Service head as well as Minster of Petroleum.
• Rodrigues is considered as a better option to stabilise the economy and facilitate US energy business relations having overseen the industry in the past comparted to the leading dissident Maria Corina Machado.
• Trump endorsed Rodriguez while highlighting that Machado lacked “respect” to lead the country.

Rumour indicates Venezuelan officials offered up Maduro in deal with the US

• Maduro’s former political allies appear to have offered President Maduro to the Trump administration.
• The US appears to have had intimate knowledge of the Maduro’s residence and movements enabling his rapid extraction.
• The token defence of Maduro also appears to have been relatively minor with no loss of life on the US side
• Cuba claims 32 of its military personnel were killed defending Maduro.
• The implication is that Maduro did not trust Venezuelan armed forces for his defence.
• A soft agreement between US and Venezuelan officials appears to have paved the way for the abduction.
• The situation has enabled Delcy Rodríguez to become interim president of Venezuela.
• Maduro was indicted in 2020 on U.S. charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy.
• China is reported to have advanced some $1.6bn of loans into Venezuela from 2000-2023
• US officials are reported to have told Delcy Rodriguez that they want to see at least three moves from her (Politico.com):

• • cracking down on drug flows;
  • kicking out Iranian, Cuban and other operatives of countries hostile to the US
  • stopping the sale of oil to US adversaries
• Venezuela is reported to have been giving oil to
• US banks and oil execs are said to be flying into Venezuela to secure new deals on oil supply into US refineries.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,464/oz vs US$4,424/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.9moz vs 98.9moz previous

Platinum US$2,325/oz vs US$2,223/oz previous

Palladium US$1,736/oz vs US$1,711/oz previous

Silver US$78.5/oz vs US$75.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$9,850/oz vs US$8,350/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,263/t vs US$12,847/t previous

Aluminium US$3,113/t vs US$3,057/t previous

Nickel US$17,905/t vs US$16,797/t previous

Zinc US$3,252/t vs US$3,171/t previous

Lead US$2,050/t vs US$2,012/t previous

Tin US$44,350/t vs US$43,551/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$61.7/bbl vs US$60.4/bbl previous

Natural Gas €27.7/MWh vs €29.0/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $82.0/lb vs $81.4/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$106.7/t vs US$104.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$463.3/t vs US$460.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$223.5/t vs US$211.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.3/t vs US$105.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$54,835/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$87,217/t vs US$83,944/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$17,400/t vs US$14,583/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,525/t vs US$1,240/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$998/mtu vs US$958/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$102/lb vs US$99/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$260/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,124/t vs US$1,117/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$360.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Company News:

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 2,020p, Mkt Cap £388m – Zimbabwe’s gold royalty plans leave Bilboes development plan intact

• Caledonia Mining confirms the passing of the 2025 Finance Act in Zimbabwe which provides for a 10% royalty if the gold price exceeds US$5,000/oz.
• The company also confirms that “other proposed changes to the tax and royalty regime that were highlighted in the announcement of December 1, 2025 have been withdrawn”.
• The company concludes that “no amendments are therefore required to the Bilboes Gold Project Technical Report Summary, which was published on November 25, 2025, as a result of the changes proposed in the Budget”.
• At an average gold price of US$2,548/oz Caledonia Mining expects Bilboes to deliver an after-tax NPV_8%(Real) of US$582m and an IRR of 32.5% with a payback of 1.7years.
• The project study envisages the production of 1.55moz of gold from Bilboes at an all-in-sustaining cost of US$1.061/oz over a planned 10.8 years mine life with initial production expected in late 2028.
• Initial throughput of 240,000tpm is expected to reduce to 180,000tpm after the first six years of the project with the refractory ore being treated using BiOx technology.
• The company has previously reported “significant exploration potential both within Bilboes and on the adjacent Motapa property, a brownfield site comprising 2,161.34 hectares which is also owned by Caledonia”.

Conclusion: The development plan for Bilboes is not affected by Zimbabwe’s decision to apply a 10% royalty only at gold prices over US$5,000/oz

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

Champion Iron Ore (CIA AU) A$6.53, Mkt Cap A$3.5bn – Acquisition of Rana Gruber Iron Ore Mine, Norway

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 13p, Mkt Cap £7.8m – Champion looks Scandinavia to diversify iron ore production for growing EU green steel market

• Champion acquired agreed to acquire Rana Gruber ASA for $7.79/share on 21^st December.
• The transaction was conducted via voluntary cash tender offer and implied a total equity value of $289m.
• Champion is funding the acquisition via equity, debt and cash, executing a concurrent $100m private placement with major shareholder La Caisse and a term loan of $150m.
• Champion sees Rana Gruber as providing an additional producing asset, which produces 1.8mtpa of high-grade iron ore.
• Rana Gruber generated $58.4m of EBITDA over the past four quarters.
• Champion will expects to blend different high-grade iron ore concentrates to support higher premiums.
• Champion is also aiming to diversify their production profile, supporting a faster-growing customer base in Europe.
• The deal is expected to be accretive on a revenue, EBITDA and cash-flow perspective.

Conclusion: Champion’s acquisition of Rana Gruber for $289m represents a positive read-across for Beowulf Mining*. Champion is a major independent producer of high-grade iron ore concentrate from Labrador. We consider their move into Scandinavian high-grade iron ore production as a reflection of their intention to increase exposure to a rapidly growing European green-steel industry, which will have increasing requirements for DRI-grade feedstock. Beowulf’s Kallak project can deliver a high-grade, low-impurity, DRI-suitable product expected to generate significant premiums to Rana Gruber’s product, at a larger per annum scale (2.7mtpa vs 1.8mtpa). As a result, we continue to expect Beowulf to be attractive to strategic parties looking to boost their high-grade concentrate production profiles. Beowulf management continues to derisk the Kallak project as it advances through permitting.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining, An SP Angel analyst recently visited Kallak

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) 3.55p, Mkt cap £112m – Receipt of US$10m as 2^nd installment from sale of the S African chrome and PGM operation

• Jubilee Metals reports the receipt of US$10m as the second cash instalment from the sale of its South African chrome and PGM operations to Chrome One.
• The company has previously explained that disposal of the chrome and PGM businesses in South Africa leaves Jubilee Metals to focus “solely on its Zambian copper projects whilst retaining its investment in the Tjate platinum project in South Africa”.
• In its circular to shareholders for the August 2025 meeting, the company explained that proceeds from the sale “substantially exceed Jubilee’s short-term capital requirements to establish itself as a substantial and scalable copper producer”.
• It also outlined how its “Chrome and PGM Operations are reliant on the delivery of third-party chrome ore to the processing facilities under Jubilee’s management. The PGM operations are not stand-alone businesses and are integrated into the chrome ore tolling and partnership supply agreements. Jubilee only has access to the PGM bearing materials as a byproduct from its processing of chrome ores”.
• In combination with the volatility of chrome prices “Jubilee’s chrome margins in South Africa are low which is typical of a processing and tolling company and reflects the processing nature of the business” and highlights the relatively more attractive opportunity to build its Zambian copper operations.

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 1.24p, Mkt Cap £133m – KEFI Shifts from Funding to Delivery with Tulu Kapi Now Underway

BUY – TP (Under Review)

• The Company updates the market on the status of Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia and GMCO portfolio of assets in Saudi Arabia.
• In Ethiopia, Lycopodium started work as the lead design and construction contractor for the plant and all onsite infrastructure.
• Mining contract competitive tender updated to ensure optimum outcome.
• Ethiopian Electric Power Company and Ethiopian Roads Authority work power supply and new access roads underway.
• Recruitment is in full swing as the team expands amid a two year development plan.
• Gold Streams ($30m) and KEFI EthioPrefs ($26m) are being reviewed by senior lenders with approvals expected shortly.
• The project remains on target for commissioning late 2027 and full production 2028.
• In Saudi Arabia, KEFI interest in the GMCO JV now stands at ~13% as of YE25.
• Operational update to be released after this month’s GMCO review of its portfolio of projects status and plans.
• The Company suggested that it would invest into the JV further using capital already raised.
• KEFI Board is considering moving the listing the Main Market “as soon as appropriate, targeting 2028”.

Conclusion: KEFI is closing on recently announced $340m Tulu Kapi Gold Project funding as activities turn to development works with commissioning reiterated for 2027 and full production 2028. With compelling economics, rapid debt paydown potential and additional upside from its Saudi interests, the Company is now positioned to focus on disciplined execution

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) 7.4p, Mkt Cap £62m – Optimisation studies support progression of Zanaga

• Zanaga Iron Ore, who are developing a high-grade Fe project in the Republic of Congo, report results from optimisation studies.
• Zanaga has been undertaking four workstreams, namely: DRI test work, pellet plant feasibility study, single 30mtpa capacity pipeline study and thickened/dry TSF
• Management states these have ‘improved the economic potential of the Zanaga Project but has also established a robust engineering and design foundation.’
• The Company guides towards CAPEX savings of $352m via the construction of a 30mtpa capacity pipeline, eliminating stage two pipeline CAPEX.
• The single stage pipeline also has the potential to reduce total operating costs of $950m over LOM by removing the booster station.
• Zanaga does not expect the incremental NPV impact to be significant,, but emphasises the ‘strategic value of a single pipeline configuration to be significantly positive.’
• As previously announced Zanaga, also expects a significant revenue enhancement from the sale higher grade product.
• Zanaga has shown the potential to produce DRI-grade pellet feed products from Zanaga of:

• • 68.5% Fe, 1.05% Si2O3, 0.47% Al2O3, 0.034% P in hematite concentrate
  • 69.1% Fe, 1.96% Si2O3, 0.40% Al2O3, 0.028% P in magnetite concentrate

• Regarding a 2.5mtpa RoC potential pellet plant, Zanaga concluded that the jurisdiction would be less competitive than other regions closer to steel producers with low-cost, long-term gas supply.
• Zanaga will consider partnerships with iron and steel producers to reduce capital requirements.
• Zanaga expects thickened tailings to reduce cash expenditure by up to $1.3bn over LOM, reducing SUSEX by $1.5bn and increasing OPEX by $0.2bn.

Conclusion: Zanaga is looking to progress through FEED phase now that they have completed key trade-off and optimisation studies. The team is opting for a single stage, 30mtpa pipeline, expected to reduce LOM OPEX for additional upfront CAPEX. Zanaga is aiming to deliver process plant FEED results in February and announce transaction terms with a strategic investor in 1Q26.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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