Copper strengthens again as Chinese traders return from holiday
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Andrada Mining (ATM LN) – $3m prepayment facility agreed with Thaisarco
Emerald Resources (EMR AU) – Focus on advancing growth projects
Ero Copper (ERO CN) – Furnas Copper-Gold Project PEA sees 24 years at 81ktpa CuEq
Faraday Copper (FDY CN) – C$100m placement backed by Lundin Family and BHP following San Manuel acquisition
Largo (LGO US) – US$56m iron ore calcine sale contract terminated
Sigma Lithium (SGML US) – 2026-27 production and cost guidance
Solgold (SOLG LN) – Shareholders approve the takeover
Sylvania Platinum (SLP LN) – PGM production increases as Thaba JV chrome ramp-up disappoints
Copper ($13,075/t) strengthens again as Chinese traders return from holiday
- Copper prices jumped overnight, touching $13,184/t as Chinese traders returned from the Lunar New Year holiday.
- Lower levies from the White House boosted sentiment in base metals, alongside sustained weakness in the US dollar.
- The move came despite higher inventory levels, with Chinese stocks hitting their highest since 2024.
- Other base metals rallied alongside copper, with nickel, zinc and aluminium all climbing 0.5%-2.6%.
Gold ($5,170/oz) edges off recent highs amid continued geopolitical uncertainty
- Gold prices rebounded strongly this week, touching $5,238/oz, highest since the late January spike.
- Gold had fallen to $4,680/oz in the wake of major margin calls across leveraged trading accounts, fuelling a wave of profit taking.
- Sustained geopolitical tensions, continued dollar weakness and expected persistent central bank appetite has supported a return over $5,000/oz.
- The strength over the recent Lunar New Year holiday has been encouraging, given Chinese retail traders have become a major driver in gold market liquidity.
- The market is closely watching US-Iran discussions, with military escalation raising the potential for a further rally in gold.
- We would suspect a deal between the two adversaries may see some short-term weakness in gold prices, whilst a breakdown in discussions may support return to previous record highs in gold.
- However, for us, US-Iran tensions are a secondary factor in gold’s rally, which is primarily supported by asset diversification both from central bankers looking to reduce dollar asset exposure and investment funds.
- Continued elevated fiscal deficits provide an additional supportive tailwind for gold, with investors concerned over the sustainability of current G7 monetary policy.
Anthropic, an AI start up and a developer of Claude, accused three leading Chinese AI companies of attacks on its models.
- The Company said DeepSeek, Moonshot and MiniMax carried “industrial-scale distillation attacks”.
- Distillation refers to the process of training smaller models on results of more advanced systems using a series of prompts.
- That way developers may train and improve their own models without incurring large research costs and computing resources.
- The Company said it identified 24,000 fraudulent accounts that carried 16m exchanges with its Claude model.
- Google and OpenAI previously flagged similar issues with distillation attacks on their AI models
VOX video: The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed
- Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast
IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86
We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a
Worth reading – Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski
| Dow Jones Industrials | -1.66% | at | 48,804 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.87% | at | 57,321 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -1.82% | at | 26,590 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.87% | at | 4,117 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +0.8 | at | 4.04 |
Currencies
US$1.1784/eur vs 1.1809/eur previous. Yen 156.25/$ vs 154.74/$. SAr 16.034/$ vs 15.981/$. $1.348/gbp vs $1.351/gbp. 0.707/aud vs 0.708/aud. CNY 6.887/$ vs 6.905/$.
Dollar Index 97.90 vs 97.55 previous
Economics
US – New 10% tariff takes effect following the Supreme Court decision to vote down President Trump restrictions.
- Washington is working on a formal order to increase the global tariff rate to 15%.
- Earlier House Speaker Mike Johnson said Congress is unlikely to agree to extend Trump tariffs following a 150d expiry.
- President Trump said that tariffs will remain central to his trade agenda with the team looking at ways to allow President to unilaterally re impose tariffs.
China – Regional equity indices are up in the first day of trading following an extended Lunar New Year break (CSI 300 +1.1%).
- The PBOC held benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 9th consecutive month.
- 1y Loan Prime Rate (Act / Est): 3.5%
- 5y Loan Prim (Act / Est): 3.0%
Japan – The yen resumed a drop after local media reported that PM expressed concerns over more rate hikes in a meeting with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.
- The currency fell more than 1% to over 156 before recouping some of its losses.
Peru – Hernando de Soto, a former central banker and a prominent pro-market economist, was named as PM to head an interim government ahead of April general elections.
- De Soto (84) will work alongside President Jose Maria Balcazar, a lawmaker from a Marxist-Leninist party.
- Balcazar replaced Jose Jeri last week after the former President left amid corruption allegations only four months after taking the office.
Precious metals:
Gold US$5,173/oz vs US$5,134/oz previous
Gold ETFs 100.4moz vs 100.2moz previous
Platinum US$2,154/oz vs US$2,157/oz previous
Palladium US$1,741/oz vs US$1,746/oz previous
Silver US$87.9/oz vs US$86.3/oz previous
Silver ETFs 815.1moz vs 817.2moz previous
Rhodium US$11,750/oz vs US$11,175/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,059/t vs US$12,924/t previous
Aluminium US$3,111/t vs US$3,095/t previous
Nickel US$17,680/t vs US$17,610/t previous
Zinc US$3,398/t vs US$3,367/t previous
Lead US$1,956/t vs US$1,959/t previous
Tin US$48,565/t vs US$47,045/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$71.5/bbl vs US$71.0/bbl previous
Natural Gas €31.4/MWh vs €31.5/MWh previous
- European energy prices edged lower after President Trump’s comments on a possible limited strike on Iran reduced the geopolitical risk premium associated with a serious disruption to global LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Uranium Futures $88.9/lb vs $89.1/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$96.7/t vs US$95.8/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.9/t vs US$466.1/t
HCC FOB Australia US$245.0/t vs US$244.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$119.5/t vs US$120.5/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$123,423/t vs US$123,103/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$20,111/t vs US$19,479/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,900/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,648/mtu vs US$1,648/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$141/lb vs US$131/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.0/kg vs US$26.3/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$262/t vs US$261/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,140/t vs US$1,137/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg
EV & battery news
BYD begins large-scale deployment of 1MW flash charging facilities
- BYD has commenced the large-scale installation of its 1MW fast chargers, with plans to build over 4,000 facilities, though no specific timeline has been provided.
- In March 2025, BYD unveiled its 1MW ultra-fast charger, claiming it was the industry’s first to use megawatts (MW) as the power measurement unit.
- The 1MW charger adds 2km of range to an EV in 1 second or 400km in 5 minutes.
- 200-300 of the charging units are set to be installed across Europe.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 1.4% | 3.8% | Freeport-McMoRan | 1.9% | 4.3% |
| Rio Tinto | -1.1% | -2.3% | Vale | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Glencore | 0.6% | 6.2% | Newmont Mining | 1.7% | -1.2% |
| Anglo American | 0.7% | 5.0% | Fortescue | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Antofagasta | 0.6% | 13.5% | Teck Resources | -0.4% | 1.0% |
Company News:
Andrada Mining (ATM LN) 4p, Mkt cap £78m – $3m prepayment facility agreed with Thaisarco
- Namibian tin producer Andrada provides an update regarding its offtaker Thaisarco.
- Company reports Thai-based smelter and refiner Thaisarco will advance $3m to the Uis Tin Mining Company, Andrada’s subsidiary.
- Thaisarco is granted exclusivity to purchase all tin concentrate from Uis.
- No interest is accrued on the advance amount, with a discount applied to future sales, applied on a sliding scale.
- Management notes the agreement reflects Thaisarco’s ‘decision to further strengthen its relationship with Andrana’ and marks ‘an endorsement from a valued partner.’
Emerald Resources (EMR AU) A$6.9, Mkt cap A$4.55bn – Focus on advancing growth projects
- PNG gold producer Emerald produced 47koz over the December half at AISC of $1,104/oz.
- Company reports A$257m in revenue, with net profit reported at A$73m.
- EBITDA reported at A$143m, with cash position reported at A$373m.
- EPS reported at A$11.08c/share.
- FY26 production guidance maintained at 105-120koz Au at AISC of $966/oz.
- Company reports it is advancing the Dingo Range gold project (1.41moz at 1.1g/t Au) with maiden reserves due to underpin economic studies.
- The Memot Gold project (1.7moz at 1.2g/t Au) will see further extension and regional drilling planned for 2026 as management advances delivery of a maiden reserve.
Ero Copper (ERO CN) C$43, Mkt cap C$4.44bn – Furnas Copper-Gold Project PEA sees 24 years at 81ktpa CuEq
- Ero Copper reports PEA results for the Furnas Copper-Gold Project in Brazil.
- Furnas is being advanced with Vale Base Metals to earn a 60% interest in the project.
- The Furnas project holds two open pits and two underground mines, using flotation to produce a copper concentrate.
- The PEA envisages a 24 year LOM with a 13.5mtpa plant processing CuEq grades of 0.9%.
- The project is expected to produce 81ktpa CuEq:
- 52ktpa Cu
- 84kozpa Au
- 374kozpa Ag
- C1 costs net of by-products expected at $0.3/lb Cu.
- Development CAPEX guided at $1,280m, with Expansion CAPEX of $0.3bn and Sustaining CAPEX of $1.2bn.
- Post-tax NPV8 of $2bn and IRR of 27% at $4.6/lb Cu, $3,300/oz Au and $40/oz Ag.
- Company exploring options for value uplift via exploration drilling, addition of a magnetite circuit to produce a magnetite concentrate and a pre-concentration gravity stage to enhance gold recoveries.
Faraday Copper (FDY CN) C$4.5, Mkt cap C$1.2bn – C$100m placement backed by Lundin Family and BHP following San Manuel acquisition
- Faraday reports it is raising C$100m via a placement from the Lundin Family and BHP. At C$4.2/share.
- Funds will be used to advance the Pinal County project in Arizona and for the integration of the San Manuel property from BHP.
- Faraday agreed to acquire the San Manuel project in Arizona from BHP last week.
- The agreement saw Faraday issuing BHP a 30% in the pro-forma entity.
- Faraday suggests the agreement would create the potential for a ‘multi-generational copper district.’
- The Company is targeting expedited copper cathode production from the combined Pinal County and San Manuel projects.
- San Manuel Project:
- Comprises San Manuel and Kalamazoo deposits, historic copper operation having produced 4.5mt between 1955-1999.
- Kalamazoo is a downthrown extension of mineralisation offset along the San Manuel fault.
- Copper Creek
- Holds total open pit and underground M&I MRE of 422mt at 0.48% CuEq for 2mt CuEq.
- 2023 PEA envisaged 51ktpa CuEq from 10.8mtpa processing capacity ($797m development CAPEX) over a 32 year LOM at LOM AISC of $1.85/lb.
Largo (LGO US) US$1.4, Mkt Cap U$117m – US$56m iron ore calcine sale contract terminated
- The Company terminated the US$56m iron ore calcine sale contract after the counterparty has not made the required initial payment ($2.9m).
- No product was delivered under the agreement.
- The team is advancing discussions with other potential buyers for 4.5mt of available calcine iron ore inventory.
- Iron ore calcine is a by product of primary vanadium operations at the Maracas Menchen Mine in Brazil.
- The Company is reviewing the effect of the latest Supreme Court decision to suspend import tariffs on its operations.
- Previously, Brazilian imports into the US were subject to a 50% tariff which may be replaced with rates of 10-15%.
- A reduction should improve Largo’s material price competitiveness allowing to ship already produced material reducing working capital pressures.
Sigma Lithium (SGML US) $12.5, Mkt Cap $1.4bn – 2026-27 production and cost guidance
- The Company released 2026-27 production and cost guidance for the Grota do Cirilo Lithium Mine in Brazil.
- Production guidance includes:
- 240kt Phase 1 (annualised) 2026
- 520kt Phase 1 and Phase 2 (annualised) 2027
- Additionally, the Company released AISC estimates and projected CFs at different lithium prices:
- Phase 1: 220-270kt, $440/t CIF China TCC, $600/t AISC (incl $67/t in Interest), $78-96m (@$1,000/t) and $233-286m (@$1,800/t) CFs
- Phase 2: 520kt, $440/t CIF China TCC, $511/ AISC (incl 27$ in Interest), $225m (@$1,000/t) and $592m (@$1,800/t) CFs
Solgold (SOLG LN) 28p, Mkt Cap £840m – Shareholders approve the takeover
- Shareholders approved a recommended cash offer (28p) from Jiangxi Copper (JCC) announced late last year.
- Over 90% of shares voted at the Court Meeting and General Meeting were in support of the deal, well over minimum required.
- The expected effective date of the deal is 4 March 2026 with long stop date 15 May.
- Trading in shares on the LSE Main Market expected to get cancelled 5 March 2026.
Sylvania Platinum (SLP LN) 122p, Mkt cap £308m – PGM production increases as Thaba JV chrome ramp-up disappoints
- PGM and chrome producer Sylvania reports interim financial results.
- The Company produced 49.2koz 4E, up 25%yoy in 1FY26.
- Higher production reflects a 9% increase in PGM feed tonnes and 10% increase in PGM grades.
- The PGM Filtration Plant is now fully operational.
- Average realised price rose 55% to $2,162/oz with AISC reported up 10% to $1,557/oz 4E.
- Revenue reported up 109% to $84m over the period.
- EBITDA reported up 414% to $51m.
- CAPEX over the period down 11% to $16m.
- Net profit reported at $23m, with EPS reported at 8.93c.
- Thaba JV cash cost reported at $133/t, with first chrome and PGM concentrates dispatched during the period.
- Company reports initial Thaba production impacted by lower ROM feed quality with higher-than-panned dilution, with a formal review underway.
- Cash balance fell to $54m.
- Company declares interim dividend of 2p/share and $2.5m has been allocated to buybacks.
- Company guides for 90-93koz 4E PGM and chrome concentrate of 60-90kt.
- Lannex and Tweefontein TSFs due for completion mid FY27.
LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
Prince Frederick House
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London, W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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