Gold flatlines as Treasury sell-off continues despite better inflation data
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ LN) – Drilling update from the Nalunaq gold mine
Aura Energy* (AURA LN, AEE AU) – Sweden eases its uranium mining rules
BHP (BHP LN) – FY 26 operations report highlights copper and iron ore
Capital limited (CAPD LN) – Strong growth across drilling, mining and lab businesses to continue through second half
Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – WCP A commissioning continues to struggle, production down
Metals Exploration (MTL LN) – Runruno production continues to fund development of La India where first gold production remains on track for December
Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) – Updated Caldeira Reserves released ahead of DFS
SuperCritical Materials (private) – Wins exclusive US licence to pull uranium from seawater
Thor Explorations (THX LN) – Steady production at Segilola as Douta FID due 3Q26
WIA Gold* (WIA AU) – Underground picture comes together at Kokoseb
Gold ($4,033/oz) flatlines as Treasury sell-off continues despite better inflation data
- Gold prices continue to hover just over $4,000/oz, having failed to capitalise on a post-CPI rally.
- The inflation data released on Tuesday came below expectations, providing a short-term boost to gold prices.
- However, this rally was capped by sustained weakness in US Treasuries, with the 10-year yield holding over 4.5%.
- The dollar rally has cooled, providing some respite to pressure on gold prices.
- However, the dollar index continues to hold over 100, with further weakness likely needed to propel gold higher.
- Continued military tension in the Gulf is also weighing on gold prices, with investors likely needing a more concrete resolution to the conflict before rebuilding bullish gold positions.
- Miners continue to struggle, with the Van Eck Gold Miners Index down 15% over the past month.
Global battery demand set for 15% growth in 2026 as Chinese EVs go global
- Wood Mackenzie’s mid-year EV and battery supply chain outlook projects 15% growth in global battery demand for 2026, with lithium-ion demand set to keep surging through 2035.
- Chinese automakers are offsetting weak domestic demand by expanding abroad, with Wood Mackenzie projecting >75% EV sales across the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Oceania in 2026 will originate from China.
- According to the IEA, China produced 75% of all EVs globally last year, and Chinese EV exports doubled to a record 2.5m units in 2025 as production outgrew domestic demand.
- Rising fuel prices from the Middle East conflict are pushing more consumers toward EVs, with Chinese exports widening the range of options available.
- In Europe, Chinese OEMs are moving to set up local production to stay tariff-free and competitive against low-cost models from domestic manufacturers.
- China accounted for over 80% of global battery cell production in 2025 and is expected to remain the largest producer of batteries and battery materials through 2035, led by CATL, BYD, and LG Energy Solution.
- Established cell makers are prioritising utilisation of existing capacity over new factories in 2026, with few major expansions announced.
- Chinese producers expanding into Europe are adding competitive pressure on local manufacturers, some of which already face financial difficulty or falling demand.
- In North America, LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and SK On have secured large LFP-based ESS offtake agreements, while GM has shifted from LFP to LMR chemistry and Ford has begun operations at a facility using CATL technology, despite the US push for independence from Chinese battery technology and China’s ban on transferring its latest LFP tech.
- BESS overtook EVs as the more prominent market focus in 2026, driven by AI data-centre growth and government energy-security initiatives, with further upside expected from robotics, shipping, and yellow goods entering electrification.
Nickel ($17,210/t) – prices rise to three-week high as worries over higher US rates fade and Indonesia says it won’t move lower mine quotas by much
- Nickel led base metals higher on the LME following weaker US producer prices, which eased fears of more Fed rate rises.
- Traders are watching Indonesia where miners await a final decision on higher output quotas.
- Battery demand remains weak, with nickel-heavy ‘NMC’ cells just 18.6% of China’s May battery output against 81.3% for cheaper LFP.
- S&P sees oversupply and soft nickel battery demand capping the price later in the year.
Lithium – Zimbabwe shuts a Chinese-run lithium firm after alleged fraud
- San Ding Lithium is a Chinese-owned lithium miner in Zimbabwe.
- It has closed after an alleged internal fraud.
- Former finance chief Li Shigang was arrested on 11 July and appeared in a Harare court on 13 July.
- Prosecutors allege he and an accomplice took more than $3.65m; he has not pleaded and is presumed innocent.
- Zimbabwe is pushing Chinese investors to process lithium at home, having banned raw concentrate exports in February.
Codelco delays its Maricunga project to 2034
- Codelco now expects first lithium from its Maricunga project in 2034, four years later than the earlier 2030 plan.
- Maricunga is one of the world’s largest lithium deposits, sitting in a salt flat in northern Chile.
- Chairman Bernardo Fontaine said the project is still eight years away.
- Rio Tinto is the partner on Maricunga, holding just under 50%.
- The delay comes down to slow permitting, community consultation and environmental sign-off.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.29% | at | 52,659 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -2.79% | at | 66,836 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +1.10% | at | 24,952 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -2.18% | at | 3,869 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.4 | at | 4.56 |
Currencies
US$1.1469/eur vs1.1427/eur previous.Yen 162.13/$ vs162.22/$.SAr 16.336/$ vs16.382/$. $1.354/gbp vs $1.341/gbp. 0.700/aud vs 0.699/aud.
CNY 6.770/$ vs6.770/$. Dollar Index 100.50 vs100.81 previous.
- US dollar slides on issues relating to the Strait of Hormuz
Economics
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that China’s REE export curbs could undermine US$6.5tn of downstream production ex China if fully implemented.
- The agency suggests that countries should look into stockpiling 11 “high risk” materials.
- That would require an initial purchase of $9.2bn and a net annual cost of $900m.
- Estimates suggest that reliance on China for REE refining is expected to come down from 90% to 85% and potentially to as low as 70% by 2035.
- Estimates rely on planned projects ex China coming online as scheduled.
First Quantum is running a process to sell a minority stake in the 100% owned Taca Taca Project in Argentina.
- Potential bidders include Rio Tinto, Mitsubishi and Mitsui, Bloomberg reports.
- Taca Taca is a porphyry copper-gold-molybdenum deposit located in the Salta Province, 55km from the border with Chile.
- Development capex estimated at US$4.2B for initial 40Mtpa capacity with a further US$1.0B for expansion to 60Mtpa.
- The project is planned to run for 35y with a maximum production of 323ktpa Cu and 171kozpa Au.
- Reserves 1.99Mt 0.42% Cu, 0.012% Mo, 0.09g/t for 8.4mt Cu, 244kt Mo and 5.5moz Au.
- Resources (incl Reserves):
- M&I 2.1Bt 0.42% Cu (0.48% CuEq)
- Inferred 0.1Bt 0.27% Cu (0.31% CuEq)
Codelco delays production from the Maricunga Lithium Project in Chile by four years to 2034.
- The Project is being developed in a JV with Rio Tinto (49.99%).
- Rio to invest up to $900m in three tranches including $350m to reach FID, $500m for construction and $50m bonus if maiden production reached by 2030 (looks like the last one to be waived now).
US – Producer inflation slowed down helped by lower energy costs, albeit, in absolute terms continued at elevated levels.
- PPI (%mom, Jun / May / Est): -0.3 / 0.6 (revised from 1.1) / 0.0
- PPI (%yoy, Jun / May / Est): 5.5 / 6.0 (revised from 6.5) / 6.2
- PPI ex Food and Energy (%yoy, Jun / May / Est): 4.7 / 4.6 (revised from 4.9) / 5.1
South Korea – The central bank raised rates for the first time in more than three years flagging more increases to come.
- The rate was raised by 25bp to 2.75% in a unanimous decision.
- The decision marks the start of a new policy cycle following four cuts since late 2024.
- The governor said that central bank’s May growth projections for 2.6% growth this year now look low and would be revised up “substantially”.
- Investment and consumption all proving stronger than expected.
- Inflation is expected to remain above the target rate for a considerable period.
- CPI hit 3.2% in June vs 2% target.
Iran – US announced additional strikes aimed at degrading Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
- US forces also resumed the naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas.
- IRIB correspondent reports the Strait of Hormuz “remains closed” after the Iranian Navy fired warning shots during the past 24 hours, forcing at least two vessels to stop.
- The US military continued targeting Iranian air-defense systems, radars and missile-launch sites along Iran’s southern coast.
- Iran continued launching missiles and drones toward U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
- CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said Iran deliberately attacked civilian crews aboard seven commercial vessels, causing nearly a dozen casualties during the previous week.
- The Pentagon has publicly estimated the cost of the war with Iran at approximately $30bn with internal US assessments at $80- $100bn (NBC).
- The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned seven individuals and entities involved in weapons procurement efforts on behalf of Iran’s IRGC.
- The network used foreign aviation companies, financial intermediaries and travel coordinators to conceal the IRGC’s role in moving illicit materials and personnel.
- The action follows Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and builds on sanctions announced on May 8 and June 10 against networks procuring weapons for the IRGC and Iran’s Center for Innovation and Technology Cooperation, including man-portable air-defense systems.
- The Treasury said the measures support National Security Presidential Memorandum 2, aimed at denying the IRGC access to resources that facilitate its activities.
- An Iranian official said Tehran sent JD Vance a private message accusing Special Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff of exploiting insider knowledge from US-Iran negotiations for financial gain and leaking sensitive information.
UAE – The UAE received expanded access to US artificial-intelligence chips after assisting the United States
- The UAE reportedly conducted dozens of strikes against Iran, intercepted hundreds of missiles and helped keep oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Syria – Trump moves to remove Syria from terrorism list:
- President Trump has formally notified Congress of his decision to rescind Syria’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism (Reuters).
- The move begins a mandatory 45-day congressional review period before the rescission can take effect.
Turkey – Greece opposes possible Turkish F-35 sale
- The two nations have a strained relationship following Greece’s 1974 military back copu of Cyprus which led to the Turkish invasion and occupation of a third of the island.
Pakistan – A US strike targeted soldiers’ barracks at an Iranian military base in Bampur, in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
Kuwait – Explosions in Kuwait from inbound Iranian drones.. Two Iranian drones were intercepted outside Kuwaiti airspace.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,031/oz vsUS$4,032/oz previous
Gold ETFs 96.4moz vs96.4moz previous
Platinum US$1,666/oz vsUS$1,643/oz previous
Palladium US$1,304/oz vsUS$1,319/oz previous
Silver US$57.2/oz vsUS$58.5/oz previous
Silver ETFs 784.1moz vs780.8moz previous
Rhodium US$8,100/oz vsUS$8,100/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,621/t vs US$13,582/t previous
Aluminium US$3,172/t vsUS$3,174/t previous
Nickel US$17,260/t vsUS$16,685/t previous
Zinc US$3,573/t vsUS$3,598/t previous
Lead US$1,873/t vsUS$1,861/t previous
Tin US$53,205/t vsUS$53,195/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$84.7/bbl vsUS$85.6/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices edged lower despite further US military strikes overnight against Iran, as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draws of 1.7mb to crude (excluding a 3mb drawdown on the SPR) and 1.5mb to gasoline, offset by a 4.6mb build to distillates stocks, with refinery utilisation up 0.4% w/w to 96.2% on 13.86mb/d of domestic production.
- European energy prices were unchanged as EU natural gas storage levels increased by 1.9% w/w to 52.8% full (vs 68.1% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 597TWh and Germany only 44.7% full (66.8% 5-Yr average).
Natural Gas €54.7/MWh vs€53.9/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $85.3/lb vs$85.2/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.1/t vsUS$100.7/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$470.2/t vsUS$470.8/t
HCC FOB Australia US$232.5/t vsUS$233.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$131.0/t vsUS$129.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vsUS$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$112,643/t vsUS$112,641/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$21,347/t vsUS$22,380/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,215/t vsUS$2,245/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vsUS$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,705/mtu vsUS$1,705/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$225/lb vsUS$225/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vsUS$400/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.6/lb vsUS$5.6/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.0/kg vsUS$27.0/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$211/t vsUS$211/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vsUS$2,809/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,160/t vsUS$1,160/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vsUS$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vsUS$397.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,095.0/kg vsUS$4,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$420.0/kg vsUS$410.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$32.0/lb vsUS$31.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
BYD targets overtaking Toyota within five years, without US market
- BYD expects to overtake Toyota as the world’s bestselling automaker within five years without access to the US market, executive vice-president Stella Li told the Financial Times.
- The company believes growth will be built on organic expansion across Europe, Latin America, South-east Asia, and Australia.
- The statement follows BYD hitting cumulative NEV production of 17m units, a milestone reached just six months after passing 15m, having taken from May 2021 to November 2024 to go from 1m to 10m units.
- BYD has sold 1,777,321 cars globally in H1 2026, down 16.1% yoy, with domestic deliveries down 45.9% to 795,169 units.
- According to China EV DataTracker, declining yoy sales for the company were halted in May 2026 after eight straight months of falling passenger car sales, as it shifted focus toward overseas markets.
- Li said BYD doesn’t need acquisitions to take the sales crown from Toyota, though the company wouldn’t rule out buying a European luxury brand if a suitable opportunity arose, adding there are currently no specific targets.
- BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu made the same five-year Toyota pledge last month, attributing it to rapid charging-tech gains and overseas growth.
- BYD sold 4.55m cars globally last year against Toyota’s 10.5m (excluding Daihatsu and Hino), and has guided for 5.0m-5.5m total NEV sales in 2026, including 1.5m overseas.
CATL to deploy 5GWh of sodium-ion battery storage in Europe via Alfen deal
- CATL has signed a memorandum of understanding with Dutch renewable energy integrator Alfen NV to deploy 5GWh of its Tener Sodium energy storage systems across the Netherlands and other Western European countries starting in 2027, marking the first planned European deployment of the system.
- The deal comes less than a month after Tener Sodium’s global debut on 22ⁿᵈ June, when CATL described it as the world’s first field-validated sodium-ion battery energy storage solution.
- The system carries a rated capacity of more than 30MWh, supports storage durations of 1 to 8 hours, and offers a 25-year lifespan with a near-2% improvement in round-trip efficiency.
- It is also compatible with LFP systems, giving Alfen flexibility on battery chemistry and reducing its exposure to lithium price swings.
- CATL plans initial China deliveries in September, targeting 1GWh shipped by year-end, with global commercial deliveries starting June 2027.
- The Alfen deal extends a rapid build-out of CATL’s sodium-ion business, following a 60GWh, 3-year supply agreement with HyperStrong in April and a 5bn yuan ($739m) investment in May to add 40GWh of sodium-ion production capacity in Fujian.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.7% | -0.9% | Freeport-McMoRan | -1.3% | -11.0% |
| Rio Tinto | -0.9% | -2.0% | Vale | -0.3% | -4.3% |
| Glencore | 2.1% | -2.6% | Newmont Mining | -1.7% | -7.2% |
| Anglo American | 2.6% | 0.3% | Fortescue | -1.9% | -0.6% |
| Antofagasta | 2.6% | 2.8% | Teck Resources | 0.0% | -8.2% |
Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ LN) 86.5p, Mkt Cap £401m – Drilling update from the Nalunaq gold mine
- Amaroq Minerals reports results from further high-grade underground drilling on the mine’s main gold vein at its Nalunaq mine in Greenland.
- Assays averaged 42.8 g/t gold with 16 of 37 assayed holes >30 g/t, the average grade of the current resource, and 30% topped 60 g/t.
- Highlights include:
- NAL-UG-2601: 132.5 g/t Au over 0.50m
- NAL-UG-2640: 132.0 g/t Au over 0.50m
- NAL-UG-2534: 113.5 g/t Au over 0.60m
- NAL-UG-2616: 104.5 g/t Au over 0.54m
- NAL-UG-2627: 84.8 g/t Au over 0.83m
- The drilling is done ahead of mining, keeping 12 to 24 months of ore proven before it is dug out.
- These holes came in after the cut-off for the next resource count (MRE5) indicating a further resource increase in future updates.
- MRE5 is due shortly, lined up with a planned move to the London main market, which should widen the investor base.
- VP Exploration James Gilbertson said “every hole we drill at Nalunaq gives us more insight and confidence” on the resource.
- We note the resource is known for its nuggety gold characteristics.
Aura Energy* (AURA LN, AEE AU) 5.5p, Mkt Cap £56m – Sweden eases its uranium mining rules
- Uranium mining is no longer treated as a nuclear facility meaning that uranium mining no longer needs local council consent.
- This is the second law to support the opening up of uranium, after Sweden lifted its mining ban in January.
- Sweden’s amended Nuclear Activities Act took effect on 15 July.
- Häggån Scoping Study estimates (2023) – focussed on Vanadium and SoP ‘Sulphate of Potash’ fertiliser and including uranium extraction.
- Throughput: 3.5mtpa – Base Case scenario proposes mining the high-grade zone at ~5.9mtpa
- Vanadium production: 10,400tpa V2O5 high-quality vanadium flake
- SoP fertilizer production: 217,000tpa sulphate of potash (SOP) by-product for sale as fertiliser
- Mixed sulphide product: 3,000tpa
- Capex: US$592m
- NPV8 rises by 37% at a uranium price of US$65/lb U3O8.
- NPV base-case: $756 – $1,606m including uranium production
- IRR: 26-47%
- Assumes: V2O5 price of between US$7.0/lb and $13/lb, SOP price of US$650/t K2O, U3O8 price of US$65/lb, a Nickel price of US$20,000/t, Mo price of US$51,000/t and Zn price of US$2,500/t, with 70% payability for base metal units. Subject to anticipated Swedish legislative change
- Operating cash flow of between US$140 – 270mpa
- Payback: 1.5 to 2.0
The scoping study was done on 65mt resource represents under 3% of Haggan’s 2.0bnt estimated MRE Mineral Resource Estimate (JORC 2004)
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Aura Energy
BHP (BHP LN) 3,073p, Mkt Cap £161bn – FY 26 operations report highlights copper and iron ore
- Reporting operating results for the final quarter of its financial year to 30th June, BHP highlights the second consecutive year of ~2mt of copper output and record production from its Western Australian iron ore operations.
- CEO, Brandon Craig, commented that BHP “finished the year strongly, delivering safe and reliable operations while setting several performance records across the business”.
- He commented that “The broader economic picture remains resilient amid recent commodity market volatility. We continue to see strength in the US and China, even as the global economy adjusts to evolving trade dynamics … [and expressed confidence in] … the demand for our core commodities, supported by the long-term trends shaping the world”.
- Group copper production of ~1.95mt declined by around 3% on FY2025 in line with the 1.9-2.0mt guidance and is expected to be in the range 1.65-1.80mt in FY 2027 “predominately as a result of the forecast grade decline at Escondida”.
- Escondida’s FY 2026 output was ~3% down compared with 2025 “due to planned lower concentrator feed grade of 0.90% (FY25: 1.02%) … partially offset by continued strong operational performance and productivity improvements, with record material mined, record concentrator throughput and improved recoveries”.
- Next year, Escondida is expected to see a continued grade decline to ~0.7% copper maintaining the previously published production guidance range of “between 1,000 and 1,100 kt”.
- Copper output at Pampa Norte (Spence) declined 21% during the year to 213kt “due to ongoing challenges with processing complex ore at the concentrator and the planned decline in stacked feed grade at the cathode plant, as we progress deeper into the hypogene mineralisation of the ore body”.
- The company explains that the Spence concentrator upgrade, which is due “during FY28 … [will upgrade] … the flotation circuit to increase residence time and improve recoveries … [and] … allow us to more effectively manage Spence’s ore complexity and variability”.
- “Spence production for FY27 is expected to be between 210 and 230 kt as we continue to manage ore variability via blending at the concentrator before the concentrator upgrades come online in FY28”.
- South Australian copper output rose 2% to 321kt with the Olympic Dam mine delivering “a 20-year copper production record” and Prominent Hill benefitting “from higher feed grades” and Carrapateena delivering “record material mined and milled, which partially offset the impact of planned lower grades”.
- The South Australian copper operations are expected to produce 290-320kt of copper in FY 2027.
- “Antamina, copper production increased to a financial year record of 152 kt as a result of higher feed grades and improved operational performance. Zinc production decreased to 96 kt due to lower feed grades”.
- BHP guidance for FY 2027 production at Antamina is “between 120 and 140 kt for copper and between 35 and 55 kt for zinc due to planned lower feed grade”.
- “Iron ore production increased 1% to a record 265 Mt. Iron ore production for FY27 is expected to be between 260 and 272 Mt” with a 6% increase in volumes mined.
- WA iron ore operations saw the approval, in June, of a US$0.9bn investment in the Ministers North project which “is expected to deliver ~20 Mtpa once ramped up, supporting sustained production of >305 Mtpa”.
- BMA’s steelmaking coal production “increased … [by 3% to 18.6mt] … with strong operational performance at the open cut operations, delivering the highest stripping volumes in five years”.
- Steelmaking coal output for FY 2027 “is expected to be between 18.5 and 20.5 Mt (37 and 41 Mt on a 100% basis), weighted to the second half”.
- New South Wales energy coal production increased by 9%, to 16.4mt, “exceeding the top end of production guidance in FY26, primarily as a result of increased bypass coal due to mine sequencing … supported by mining lower strip ratio areas as part of pathway to 2030 closure”.
- BHP confirms that Stage 1 of the US$8.4bn Jansen Potash project in Saskatchewan is now 84% complete with initial production of the 4.15mtpa project expected in mid-calendar year 2027.
- At Jansen, “Development of the next stage of the project, including completion of the second shaft hoist infrastructure, expansion of processing facilities and addition of rail cars to facilitate production of an incremental 4.36 Mtpa” at a cost of US$6.9bn with production expected in “Late-FY31”.
- Mr. Craig summarised the outlook by commenting “We enter the new year with momentum and significant opportunities to accelerate improvements in safety, productivity and reliability through our operating system and the adoption of technology”.
Conclusion: BHP achieved its FY 2026 production guidance across all its major commodities, including record WA iron ore output and almost 2mt of copper production.
Capital Limited (CAPD LN) 108p, Mkt cap £242m – Strong growth across drilling, mining and lab businesses to continue through second half
- Capital Limited report strong growth through Q2 in results today with revenue rising to US$117m through the quarter and $219m for H1.
- Q2 Revenue rose by 15% on Q1 driven mainly by the mining +42% and followed by MSALABS at +14% and Drilling at +8%.
- Year-on-year saw a massive 87% lift in sales again mainly driven by the mining business at +264% and MSALABS +37%.
- Management report consistent performance in drilling and performance at Reko Diq in line with their contract.
- We note the security situation around Reko Diq in Pakistan is not good at present with worsening violence in Balochistan (see FT, 15 July)
- Security in Balochistan is difficult at the best of times but is rapidly worsening in the current environment.
- Management also warn of “non-recurring termination and demobilisation costs associated with NGM and Sadiola, which will largely offset the better-than-expected performance”
- The team have been busy signing new drilling contracts with Skylark Minerals in the Ivory Coast.
- Operations have also started at Predictive Discoveries’s Kiniero gold mine in Guinea, on deep-hole drilling at Sukari and grade control at Mintage’s gold mine at Kone in the Ivory Coast.
- Drill rigs were moved off Sadiola in Mali due to political unrest and from Nevada Gold Mines in the US which has been economically challenging.
- Investments: rose by $7.4m over the first half to end-June to record a 7.6% gain. The team subscribed to $11.6m of new equity in WIA Gold and Asara Resources in Q2 adding to two promising opportunities within the portfolio. (see later comment on WIA Gold)
- Guidance maintained at revenue of $410-400m for the year:
- “The better-than-expected performance across the broader operating business in H1 will be largely offset by the one-off costs associated with the demobilisation at NGM and Sadiola”
Conclusion: Capital Limited continues to see good growth in its core Drilling business supported by particularly strong growth in its mining division and at MSALABS.
We expect all three divisions to see further growth through the second half driven by increasing activity across the exploration and mining sector.
Capital Investments looks well positioned for further growth, though further erosion in the gold price could hold back share price performance across the sector.
Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 187p, Mkt Cap £160m – WCP A commissioning continues to struggle, production down
- Mineral sands producer Kenmare provides a 2Q26 production report.
- The Company’s Moma operation in Mozambique saw 8.6mt of excavated ore over the quarter at 3.15% grade, down 6% and 29pp qoq respectively.
- Ilmenite production fell 40%qoq to 147kt, while zircon fell 26%qoq to 9.7kt.
- Rutile production fell 30%qoq to 1.6kt.
- Production fell due to ‘ongoing challenges with the commissioning of the Wet Concentrator Plant.’
- The commissioning delay is primarily a result of extended commissioning of the two new dredges, with Kenmare engaging with the equipment manufacturer.
- The Company expects production to improve in 2H26 as WCP A ramps up and WCP B performance improves.
- Kenmare notes a continuation of weak ilmenite pricing, with the zircon market recovering.
- Net debt rose to $176m from $159m over the six-month period.
Metals Exploration (MTL LN) 13.55p, Mkt Cap £406m – Runruno production continues to fund development of La India where first gold production remains on track for December
- Metals Exploration reports Q2 production of 10,946oz of gold at an all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) of US$2,019/oz) from the Runruno mine bringing H1 production to 21,451oz at an AISC of US$2,043/oz (H1 2025 – 40,985oz at US$1,189/oz)
- Year to date gold production resulted from the processing of ~950kt of ore at an average grade of 0.87g/t achieving ~81% recovery (H1 2025 ~1mt at 1.34g/t and 91% recovery).
- The company comments that the “Head grade was lower than forecast at 0.82 g/t (Q1 2026: 0.92 g/t) due to less continuity of grade in the mining area”.
- At the La India project in Nicaragua the company reports that it remains on schedule to achieve the first gold pour in December 2026.
- Overall, construction at La India is now 56% complete with US$123.9m of the revised capital budget of US$177m now completed.
- Ore stocks of 220kt have been accumulated as the company targets 500kt stocks for commissioning of the plant.
- CEO, Darren Bowden, explained that “cash generation from Runruno remains central to funding La India, where construction continued to progress well during the Quarter”.
- Elsewhere, exploration in the wider La India area includes a planned 3,683m drilling programme, which is already underway, at the La India South Extension project to investigate “a wide epithermal vein system open at depth and along strike” and located close to the planned underground development at La India.
- Mr. Bowden described the drilling at La India South as encouraging and said that it is “continuing to discover wide zones of epithermal mineralisation associated with the main La India system … and successful results could support further Mineral Resource growth and extend the underground life of mine beyond our current expectations”.
- The company also reports the completion of a 7,852m drilling programme at Cacao, “located approximately 4km from the La India processing plant … [where a] … preliminary inferred resource has been calculated at Cacao at 100,000 oz at 2.7g/t Au, but recent drilling has shown that the vein has a moderate plunge to the west and grades appear to increase with depth, suggesting substantial upside”.
- Assay results from the Cacao drilling include:
- A 12.7m wide intersection at an average grade of 3.52g/t gold from a depth of 270.8m in hole CCRD-043; and
- A 10.66m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.92g/t gold from a depth of 233.62m in hole CCRD-044; and
- A 6.00m wide intersection at an average grade of 2.24g/t gold from a depth of 169.2m in hole CCRD-052; and
- A 3.0m wide intersection at an average grade of 6.95g/t gold from a depth of 338m in hole CCRD-055.
- Preparations are also underway to drill the recently secured Batong Buhay Porphyry Copper-Gold Project in Northern Luzon, Philippines where the “main porphyry target, Dickson, has a historical non-JORC compliant resource of 86.9 million tonnes at 0.83% copper equivalent (“CuEq”) from surface”.
Conclusion: Initial gold production at La India still expected in December as drilling close to the processing plant looks for additional resources and potential mine life extension.
Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) A$0.17, Mkt Cap A$488m – Updated Caldeira Reserves released ahead of DFS
- The Company released updated reserves for the Caldeira Rare Earths IAC Project in Brazil.
- Updated estimate:
- 146Mt 3,546ppm TREO (863ppm MREO)
- This compares to the previous (2025) estimate – 103Mt 4,091ppm TREO
- The update follows an upgrade to the MRE released earlier in July (M&I increased to 703mt 2,617ppm, up from 666Mt 2,685ppm).
- Over 100Mt is grading at over 4,000ppm TREO.
- Reserves now cover full project production profile envisaged in the DFS (20y LOM at 6Mtpa).
- The DFS is expected to be released shortly.
SuperCritical Materials (private) – Wins exclusive US licence to pull uranium from seawater
- SuperCritical Materials is a US firm supplying nuclear fuel infrastructure has won an exclusive US DoE licence to extract uranium from seawater.
- The ‘adsorbent’ is a material that soaks up uranium as seawater passes through it.
- The oceans hold about 4.5bn tonnes of uranium, over 1,000 times known land reserves.
- If the process works, the company could help cover a deficit in the US for ‘HALEU’ uranium fuel for small reactors.
Thor Explorations (THX LN) 57p, Mkt Cap £373m – Steady production at Segilola as Douta FID due 3Q26
- Nigerian gold producer Thor provides a 2Q26 operating update.
- The Company produced 19.2koz Au over the quarter, selling 17koz at $4,535/oz.
- Segilola milled 242kt ore at 2.57g/t Au with recoveries of 93%.
- This compared to the previous quarter of 240koz at 2.54g/t Au at 93%.
- Thor reports an ore stockpile of 58.4oz at 0.74g/t Au.
- Q2 cash and bullion rose to $226m.
- Company reiterates 2026 guidance of 75-85koz at $1,000-1,200/oz AISC.
- 20,000m of exploration drilling has been completed, targeting underground MRE definition at Segilola, scout drilling in Nigeria and infill drilling at Douta.
- In Cote d’Ivoire, initial drill programmes are underway with results due 3Q26.
- Company expects to receive permits for Douta in 3Q26.
WIA Gold* (WIA AU) A$0.42, Mkt Cap A$700m – Underground picture comes together at Kokoseb
- WIA Gold, who are developing the 3moz Kokoseb gold project in Namibia, report 2Q26 results.
- The Company holds A$119m following the placement of 200m new shares at A$0.46/share.
- WIA is targeting the completion of the Kokoseb DFS in 3Q26, based on an open-pit development.
- Hydrogeological studies delineated a water resource over 80Mm3, above the required demand of 1.5Mm3pa for the Project.
- For power, WIA has received an offer for the 132kV power line connection from NamPower.
- Exploration continues, with new high-grade mineralisation identified below the Central Zone, and mineralisation delineated outside of the current open pit MRE.
- Management expects to release an updated MRE in 3Q26, incorporating an inaugural underground Resource.
- Project financing is ongoing, with a range of senior debt facilities, streaming and royalty packages received in non-binding proposals.
*SP Angel analyst(s) holds shares in WIA
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Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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