SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Thursday 30th April 2026

Gold bounces following FOMC as Trump calls on Tehran to concede

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – Greenland Energy partner raises US$70m for Oil & Gas exploration in the Jameson Land Basin

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) – Progress report on Welsh and Greenland projects

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Quarterly report highlights progress at Dokwe, Zimbabwe

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Quarterly highlights progress on Ewoyaa lithium project in Ghana

C3 Metals (CCCM CN) – Phase 2 Khaleesi drilling programme to build on successful maiden results

Endeavour Mining (EDV LN) – Strong cash flows to support Assafou construction and shareholder return strategy

First Tin (1SN LN) – Upgraded MRE for the Taronga tin project, NSW

Glencore (GLEN LN) – Weak coal results offset by higher copper and marketing contributions

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – BUY, 4.2p – Saudi Arabia portfolio update

Liontown (LTR AU) – Strong lithium price helps to deliver the strongest financial quarter

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) – NFM advancing towards potential copper production under MoU with Austral Resources

South32 Ltd (S32 LN) – Inflation hits Hermosa construction, CAPEX rises 53% to $3.3bn

Gold ($4,617/oz) bounces following FOMC as Trump calls on Tehran to concede

• Gold prices led the precious metals complex higher this morning, up 1.6% from yesterday’s lows of $4,513/oz.
• The metal has been hit by a sharp rise in US Treasury yields, which scaled 4.4% on the 10 year yesterday.
• Higher crude prices are feeding into inflation concerns, with brent up another 1.6% this morning to $112/bbl.
• Rate cut expectations have fallen sharply, lifting yields, with Kalshi pricing a 50% chance of any Fed rate cut before 2027 (80-90% in March).
• The dollar has pulled back marginally this morning, with the index hitting 99.1 yesterday, marking two week highs.
• Gold is becoming more correlated to the dollar, with a sell-off in the Yen adding further strength.
• The Fed held key rate targets unchanged yesterday as expected, whilst rate cut expectations rose slightly from Tuesday.

World Bank “The largest energy supply shock in history”

• A recent World Bank base-line scenario has warned of the “The largest energy supply shock in history” With:
  • Energy prices up 24% this year
  • Fertilizer prices up 31%
  • Urea prices up 60%
  • Overall commodity prices up 16%
• Oil loss
  • In the 1970s oil crises the world lost 5mbbls per day,
  • Russia-Ukraine 2022: lost 3mbbls per day
  • Current crisis losing 13mbbls per day.”
• Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and oil storage may also exacerbate fuel supply issues.
• But the global economy is far larger and much more diverse than it was in the 1970s and is less dependent on oil than it was in 2022.
• Disruption to sulphuric acid production is likely to reduce metals output for copper, nickel, uranium and REEs.
• Some manufacturers have slowed or halted production in Asian nations where there is little buffer stock.
• EVs are selling well and China is accelerating its move to diversify away from oil and gas as fast as it can.

IG TV Gold report: https://youtu.be/PliTL-z0n54?si=HvvFdldYY7oHK7s7

Currencies

US$1.1680/eur vs 1.1707/eur previous. Yen 160.50/$ vs 159.67/$. SAr 16.825/$ vs 16.558/$. $1.349/gbp vs $1.351/gbp. 0.713/aud vs 0.716/aud. CNY 6.837/$ vs 6.831/$.

Dollar Index 98.90 vs   98.68 previous.

Economics

Brent prices surged past the $120 mark as President Trump said the US would keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until Rian agreed to the deal to end its nuclear programme.

US – Fed rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, in line with expectations, highlighting rising energy costs affect on inflation outlook.

• This would be the last press conference held by Jerome Powell as the Fed Chair before his term concludes May 15.
• The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair passed through the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday morning.

Eurozone – Preliminary CPI estimates came in higher than expected in April with inflation hitting 3%.

UK – Heathrow Airport warning over ‘full’ Heathrow as transfer traffic takes off on Iran war

• More transfers than ever are routing through London, Heathrow to avoid Middle Eastern airports.
• 18.9m passengers passed through Heathrow in Q1 marking a 3.7% rise yoy.
• Q2 will be significantly higher assuming the airport can source sufficient fuel.
• Passengers are increasingly opting to avoid Dubai, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and definitely anywhere in Iran.
• Heathrow’s third runway and other expansion plans have risen to a capex of >£50bn to 150mpa from 84mpa with 756,000 flights a year, up from 480,000.

Iran – US commanders presenting options to Trump on Iran

• CENTCOM reported to have prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran — likely including infrastructure targets — in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock (Axios)
• We suspect the strikes may be directed by Mosad intelligence and target hard-liners in the IRGC leadership
• To target Iranian infrastructure might prove counterproductive at this stage, though many Iranian’s want the US and Israel to do whatever it takes to replace the Islamic state leadership.
• Options appear to be:
  • Targeted air strikes
  • Broader sir strikes against military and infrastructure targets
  • Special forces operation to secure Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
  • Ground forces to enable partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
  • Blockade of Iranian ports to continue
• Expect the IRGC to strike US forces in the Gulf.
• The last 101 missile and drone barrage against the USS Abraham Lincon aircraft carrier failed but the next assault might involve 1,001 missiles and drones.
• China and Russia will be advising Iran on how to penetrate US naval defences.

Precious metals:

SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026

Gold US$4,589/oz vs US$4,572/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.8moz vs 98.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,937/oz vs US$1,936/oz previous

Palladium US$1,485/oz vs US$1,457/oz previous

Silver US$72.8/oz vs US$73.2/oz previous

Silver ETFs 793.2moz vs 793.9moz previous

Rhodium US$10,000/oz vs US$10,000/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$13,035/t vs US$13,101/t previous

Aluminium US$3,474/t vs US$3,544/t previous

Nickel US$19,405/t vs US$19,500/t previous

Zinc US$3,316/t vs US$3,364/t previous

Lead US$1,952/t vs US$1,959/t previous

Tin US$49,325/t vs US$49,885/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$122.0/bbl vs US$112.9/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices remain elevated as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draws of 6.2mb to crude, 6.1mb to gasoline and 4.5mb to distillate stocks, with refinery utilisation rising 0.5% to 89.6% on 13.6mb/d of domestic output.
• European energy prices were also broadly unchanged as EU natural gas storage levels to increase by 1.5% w/w to 30.7% full (vs 44.6% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 365TWh and Germany at 25.1% full (vs 45.1% 5-year average).
• Expand Energy reiterated plans to invest ~$2.85bn to run 11 to 12 rigs and maintain average FY26 output of ~7.5bcfe/d, while deploying free cash flow to shareholder returns and debt paydown to add balance sheet capacity at cycle lows.

Natural Gas €47.2/MWh vs €44.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $86.6/lb vs $86.6/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$108.1/t vs US$107.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$473.6/t vs US$473.4/t

HCC FOB Australia US$232.0/t vs US$232.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$134.8/t vs US$134.8/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$112,985/t vs US$111,985/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$24,791/t vs US$24,812/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,450/t vs US$2,450/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,343/mtu vs US$2,343/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$198/lb vs US$198/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.6/kg vs US$28.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$249/t vs US$250/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,799/t vs US$2,799/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,148/t vs US$1,149/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,275.0/kg vs US$3,275.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$27.5/lb vs US$27.5/lb

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.96p, Mkt cap £48m – Greenland Energy partner raises US$70m for Oil & Gas exploration in the Jameson Land Basin

• 80 Mile plc reports the raising of US$70m by Greenland Energy Company on Nasdaq for Oil & Gas exploration and appraisal at Jameson Land Basin in Greenland.
• Greenland Energy Company (GLND) can earn up to 70% though funding 100% of the cost of two new exploration wells at Jameson with 80 Mile retaining  a 30% interest.
• The Jameson Land Basin license covers ~2m acres in East Greenland with extensive previous exploration.
• Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) spent >$100m between 1970 and 1990 on detailed exploration and evaluation identifying multiple gas and liquid hydrocarbon targets.
• The ARCO data which is available to 80 Mile and its partner GLND show “all the essential source, reservoir, seal and trap elements to host multiple very-large-scale natural & industrial gas reservoirs in addition to liquid-rich hydrocarbons, particularly in the central and southern central regions of the basin.” A
• A recent report highlights multiple, stacked, large and high-quality structural reservoirs and stratigraphic traps, as well as the significant exploration upside across the basin.

Conclusion: 80 Mile are fortunate in finding a well-funded partner to drill Jameson as this is not cheap drilling due to the need for blow-out protection in a remote location.

The potential identification of oil and gas in the basin should be a major event for the company’s valuation.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has formerly visited license in Greenland with management.

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) 0.02p, Mkt cap £5.0m – Progress report on Welsh and Greenland projects

• Alba Mineral Resources has issued a report on progress at its Clogau St David gold project in North Wales and its Motzfeldt rare-earths project in southern Greenland.
• In Wales, the company reports the completion of ten blasts, totalling 13.8m on the 5^th level of the old Llechfraith workings.
• The blasting has provided ~165t of material “with 16t in total processed … [so far from the first six blasts] … through the Alba onsite pilot plant and resulting concentrate assays returning uneconomic grades”.
• Material derived from “Blasts 7-10 material … [has] … yet to be processed” and “Historical data indicates that next blasts may intersect a possible payshoot, the ‘No.2 Shoot’”.
• The company says that a new “centrifugal gravity gold concentrator purchased and installed at the onsite pilot processing plant at Clogau … [is] … expected to improve the throughput of material plant and enhance recoveries”.
• Progress with the blasting was slowed to enable “roof support measures … to be implemented … [and is expected to be resumed] … in the week commencing 4 May 2026”.
• In Greenland, surface rock samples taken from the Merino target have delivered total rare-earth oxide assays of “up to 1.36%, with an average of 0.71%” with niobium grades of “0.73% Nb2O5 (average 0.5%) … [and zirconium grades of] … 2.3% ZrO2 (average 1.2%)”.
• “An average of 19% of the TREO in these assay results is composed of key magnet metals Praseodymium, Neodymium, Dysprosium and Terbium”.
• The company says that its 2026 field exploration “will investigate rare earth enrichment … to expand the Company’s understanding of the potential scale of mineralisation at the Merino prospect”.

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 1.9p, Mkt Cap £50m – Quarterly report highlights progress at Dokwe, Zimbabwe

• Ariana Resources report for the quarter to 31st March highlights the completion of a 5,659m, 31-hole, reverse circulation (RC) resource expansion drilling programme at its Dokwe project in Zimbabwe and confirms the start of geotechnical diamond drilling in the Dokwe Central deposit.
• Assays from some of the RC drilling are still awaited but among the results so far are:
  • A 23m wide interval averaging 1.69g/t gold from a depth of 84m in hole DRC-19; and
  • A 3m wide interval averaging 6.65g/t gold from a depth of 92m in hole DRC-20; and
  • A 10m wide intersection at an average grade of 4.91g/t gold from a depth of 156m in hole DRC-22 which also intersected shallower mineralisation averaging 9.27g/t over a 3m interval from 63m depth.
  • 10m averaging 7.67g/t gold from a depth of 110m in hole DRC-23; and
  • A 7m wide interval averaging 1.29g/t gold from a depth of 952m in hole DRC-24; and
  • A 4m wide intersection at an average grade of 16.90g/t gold from a depth of 69m in hole DRC-25; and
• Ariana Resources says that the drilling at Dokwe confirms the “continuity within and beyond the principal shear zone at Dokwe North and potential for near-surface oxide resource growth, up to 150 metres beyond the current resource envelope to the north-east”.
• Metallurgical sampling and testing of samples from Dokwe is planned “as part of the Xinhai Strategic Investment to progress the Definitive Feasibility Study”.
• Commenting on the progress at Dokwe, Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener, said that the RC drilling has “continued to provide compelling results, particularly along the strike extension of Dokwe North towards the north-east”.
• He expressed confidence that the drilling “will lead to further oxide mineralisation being defined in due course”.
• Elsewhere, the production of 4,533oz of gold and 10,305oz of silver from the Turkish operations of 23.5% owned Zenit Mining where production is ramping up at the Tavsan heap leach operation.
• Exploration and resource drilling at Tavsan is continuing with “15,692m … [in] … 316 holes … [completed] … by the end of Q1 2026”.
• Key results from the Tavsan drilling include:
  • A 15.7m wide interval averaging 1.51g/t gold and 7.82g/t silver from surface in hole TAV-DO-14-25; and
  • 7.4m averaging 2.76g/t gold and 3.10g/t silver from 16.9m depth in hole TAV-DO-30A-25; and
  • A 9.7m wide intersection averaging 1.91g/t gold and 3.27g/t silver from 0.8m depth in hole TAV-DO-79-25.
• The Tavsan drilling has “confirmed the continuity of the high-grade domain, as previously modelled, whilst the results from the South Zone indicate significant potential to extend mineralisation and expand the resource”.
• Results will feed an updated resource estimate for Tavsan which “is currently expected in Q2 2026”.
• Dr. Sener commented that ramp-up of “the heap-leach operation … [at Tavsan] … has been progressing very well, and the mine recorded gold and silver production results in line with expectations”.
• He said that “Tavşan remains on track to deliver most of the gold and silver production during the year, with approximately 75% of the gold having been derived from this mine in the period from total production of 4,533 ounces”.
• The Kiziltepe mine in Türkiye continued to process “both Kiziltepe and Tavşan ore throughout the period” and the company continued preparations “for the development of the Kizilcukur Deposit, located 22km northeast of the Kiziltepe mine”.
• “Kizilcukur is being advanced towards providing satellite ore feed to the producing Kiziltepe Gold-Silver Mine”.
• Drilling at the Salinbas gold/silver project in northeast Türkiye, which started in 2021 is “currently paused, with a restart expected in due course”.

Conclusion: Ariana Resources confirms progress at the Dokwe gold project in Zimbabwe where recent drilling offers resource expansion opportunities and the company plans DFS level metallurgical testing.

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 15.7p, Mkt Cap £115m – Quarterly highlights progress on Ewoyaa lithium project in Ghana

• Atlantic Lithium report their Quarterly highlights to end-March 2026:
• Staff costs of A$0.3m vs A$0.8m year-to-date
• Administration and corporate costs A$1m vs A$2.5m ytd
• Interest and other costs of finance paid A$0.03m vs A$0.152m ytd
• Other Income A$0.2m vs A$0.2m ytd
• Net cash used in operating activities A$1.1m vs A$3.2m ytd
• Cash and cash equivalents came to A$13.9m vs A$5.4m at end December
• Atlantic have A$42m of unused financing available.
• Atlantic Lithium recently reported the potential for up to ~US$16.4m of new funding from:
• US$11.0m from a group of Ghanaian pension funds
  • Clients of IC Asset Managers for ~US$11.0m
• US$5.4m at 14.6p/s through the placing of equity to Long State Investments Ltd as part of the continuing scheme placing.
• Milestone-linked warrants: exercise price up to 21.9p per warrant for a total value of US$6.0m

Ewoyaa lithium mine development

• The Government of Ghana recently ratified the mining lease for the Ewoyaa lithium mine.
• There was some revision to the fiscal terms on royalty rates and the Growth and Sustainability Levy to current legislated rates in Ghana.
• Lithium royalties are now subject to a sliding scale of 5.0-12.0% for projects in Ghana.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium

C3 Metals (CCCM CN) C$0.81, Mkt Cap C$101m – Phase 2 Khaleesi drilling programme to build on successful maiden results

• Jamaica and Peru copper explorer C3 Metals reports drilling results from its ongoing programme at Khaleesi in southern Peru.
• The Company announced assays from 11 holes yesterday.
• Highlights from the programme include:
  • KHZ5825-003: 148m at 0.34% Cu, 0.04g/t Au, 0.87g/t Ag from 275m downhole depth.
  • KHZ5790-00: 44m at 0.59% CuEq from 40m
• Management notes that elevated copper mineralisation was intersected in 8/11 holes reported, with copper mineralisation predominantly hosted in magnetite and garnet-diopside skarns.
• The ongoing programme is aiming to test mineralisation across a 1000m x 500m at depths of 400m, exploring the extents of the hydrothermal system.
• Focus remains on targeting the core of the system to identify the source of mineralisation.
• 15,000m of drilling is now planned as part of the fully funded Phase 2 programme.
• In Jamaica, drilling is ongoing at the large-scale copper porphyry and high-grade gold targets.

Conclusion: Khaleesi is presenting a large scale but complex mineralised system, with six intrusive rock types intercepted in initial drilling. The initial programme as laid key foundations, with wide intercepts of ore-grade mineralisation intercepted to date. However, an improved understanding of the Khaleesi geology will now be used to guide targeted Phase 2 drilling, with focus on identifying the ‘causative’ intrusion. Additional geophysics will be used to support vectoring and identification of additional mineralisation. Ultimately, C3 is an exciting junior copper explorer aiming to unveil major copper discoveries through targeted and systematic exploration. It remains early days at Khaleesi, however intercepts to date (269m at 0.38% CuEq, 244m at 0.29% CuEq, 101m at 0.37% CuEq, 51m at 0.86% CuEq) highlight the scale potential, with further work required to unveil an economic deposit. The Company remains well funded following the C$28m placement in January and we look forward to the upcoming 15,000m programme.

Endeavour Mining (EDV LN) 4,360p, Mkt Cap £10bn – Strong cash flows to support Assafou construction and shareholder return strategy

• Endeavour Mining, African gold producer, reports 1Q26 results.
• The Company produced 282koz over the quarter, down 5%qoq at AISC of $1,834/oz, up 11%qoq.
• Lower production reflects weaker grades at Sabodala-Massawa, Mana, and Ity.
• Higher AISC over the quarter reflects lower output, higher royalty costs and higher
• Realised gold price of $4,810/oz supported operating cash flows of $737m, up 21%qoq.
• Free cash flow reported at $613m, up 29%qoq.
• Adj. EBITDA reported up 85%qoq to $880m.
• Company conducted $30m of buybacks over the quarter.
• Net cash increased to $405m from net debt of $158m prior quarter.
• Production guidance reiterated at 1,090-1,265koz with AISC guidance reiterated at $1,600-1,800/oz., although higher gold prices expected to feed into royalty costs.
• Company reported Assafou DFS results over the quarter, reiterating the 320kozpa potential and FID due 2026, whilst CAPEX increased to $1.1bn.

Conclusion: Endeavour is generating strong cash flows at current gold prices, ramping up its shareholder returns via buybacks and dividends. The Company’s Assafou project represents a major focus as the Company aims to hit 1.5mozpa by 2030. The exploration strategy ex-West Africa is gaining traction, with a 9.9% stake in Guyana-focused Altair acquired.

First Tin (1SN LN) 13.25p, Mkt Cap £70m – Upgraded MRE for the Taronga tin project, NSW

• First Tin has issued an updated mineral resource estimate (MRE) for its Taronga tin project in New South Wales.
• The new estimate reports a 13% increase in the contained tin content of the ‘Measured & Indicated’ resource to a total of 85.7mt at an average grade of 0.11% tin
• The overall ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ resource at Taronga now stands at 132mt at an average grade of 0.1% tin.
• The company explains that the “updated MRE indicates the successful conversion of a significant proportion of Inferred Resources into the Measured and Indicated categories, supporting an expected increase in mine life and enhanced project economics for the forthcoming optimised Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”)”.
• It also notes that the “Total contained tin … [in the ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ resource] … remains broadly unchanged at 136,600t compared to the previous estimate of 138,300t tin … [and that the] … slight reduction of 1,700t tin is primarily attributable to better definition of the weathering profile, resulting in locally lower rock density assumptions”.
• Based on information in a September 2025 company presentation, we understand that the previous MRE hosted an overall ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ resource of 133mt at an average grade of 0.1% tin with the ‘Inferred’ component representing around 46% (61.1mt at an average grade of 0.09% tin) of the overall resource tonnage.
• In today’s update, with an ‘Inferred’ resource of 46.2mt at a grade of 0.08% tin, the ‘Inferred’ represents around 35% of the overall resource tonnage.
• The company also reports an initial ‘Inferred’ resource for the by-product copper and silver mineralisation at Taronga which is 132mt at an average grade of 0.05% copper and 2.8g/t silver.
• The copper and silver will be excluded from “the optimised DFS economic assessment due to their Inferred classification … [but] … metallurgical testwork indicates that the copper and silver report to sulphide residues … [the company] … is currently assessing technical and economic options for eventual extraction of these valuable metals”.
• Welcoming the upgrading of the tin resource in the new MRE CEO, Bill Scotting, said that the conversion of some of the ‘Inferred’ resource “into Measured and Indicated categories, enabling inclusion in ongoing financial evaluations … is a significant step forward for Taronga”.
• He said that the new MRE will be incorporated in “updated pit designs and an extended life of mine, based on the new MRE, in our forthcoming DFS update”.

Conclusion: Recent drilling at Taronga has helped convert ‘Inferred’ resources into ‘Measured & Indicated’ clearing the way for them to be included in the forthcoming DFS and potentially extending mine life.

Glencore (GLEN LN) 566p, Mkt Cap £65bn – Weak coal results offset by higher copper and marketing contributions

• Glencore reports 1Q26 production results.
• Production highlights:
  • Copper: 199.6kt, up 19%yoy.
  • Cobalt: 5.8kt, down 39%
  • Zinc: 177kt, down 17%
  • Lead: 41.2kt, down 17%
  • Nickel: 17.2kt, down 9%
  • Gold: 68koz, down 53%
  • Silver: 4.9moz, up 15%
  • Chrome 830kt, up 3%
  • Steelmaking coal: 6.5mt, down 22%
  • Energy coal: 22.9mt: down 2%
• Higher copper production reflects higher throughput and grades at Antamina and stronger grades from the African operations, offsetting the shutdown at Mount Isa.
• Cobalt production weakness reflects a pivot to prioritising copper production in the DRC following the 2025 quota system.
• Weaker zinc production reflects lower production from Kazzinc on sequencing and the end of Lady Loretta operations.
• Weak met coal production reflects pit sequencing at Elk Valley and wet weather impacts in Queensland.
• Importantly, marketing EBIT is guided ‘comfortably exceeding’ the top end of the FY26 $2.3-3.5bn expectation.
• Management notes they are in a ‘net long’ sulphuric acid position but sees costs rising from higher diesel inputs.

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 1.3p, Mkt Cap £182m – Saudi Arabia portfolio update

BUY – 4.2p

• The Company updates on developments at its portfolio of precious/base metals assets in Saudi Arabia.
• The portfolio is run by GMCO JV (13% KEFI) created with a local partner ARTAR.
• At Jibal Qutman (Gold, MRE 0.9moz), GMCO is finalising the DFS for a staged mine development.
• The DFS is under a third party review for GMCO Board consideration and refinement of strategy and plans over coming months.
• A Mining License Application was filed.
• At Hawiah (Polymetallic VMS, MRE ~710kt CuEq), development studies are also currently progressing.
• The team highlights the project funding recently secured will be directed towards Tulu Kapi (Ethiopia) with Saudi assets to be funded independently.
• GMCO is being strengthened with a standalone management team.
• Jeff Rayner is rejoining KEFI as Head of Exploration.

Conclusion: The management focus shifts to Tulu Kapi development while a meaningful exposure maintained to the portfolio of Saudi assets through a ~13% interest in GMCO. KEFI invested ~US$13m in GMCO over the years with the interest having come down over the years to cover outstanding exploration costs as the team aimed to reduce cash burn and prioritise Tulu Kapi project funding. Tulu Kapi remains key driver to our target valuation accounting for >95% of Group NPV.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Liontown (LTR AU) A$2.4, Mkt Cap A$7.5bn – Strong lithium price helps to deliver the strongest financial quarter

• The Company reports a MQ26 operational update for the Katheleen Valley Lithium Mine, WA.
• Underground ramp up progressing ahead of schedule with 1.5mtpa rate reached early in the quarter.
• 2.8mtpa remains on budget by end of FY27.
• Underground mine delivered 402kt (+31%qoq) at ~1.4Li2O.
• The plant treated 614kt at 1.3% Li2O with 61% recoveries for a mix of UG and OP material.
• Recoveries are expected to improve as UG material share in the feed mix increases.
• 70% achieved through three weeks in April as UG accounted for 67% of throughput, up from 48% recorded during March quarter.
  • 96kt SC produced (-9%qoq)
  • 84kt SC5.1 sold
  • C1 A$981 / US$682/SC FOB sold (+8%qoq)
  • AISC A$1,251 / US$870/SC FOB sold (+18%qoq)
  • Realised price US$1,845/SC6E CIF (+87%qoq)
• Closing cash balance A$424m (+A$33m) with A$64m payment for a shipment completed at the end of March received in early April.
• FY26 guidance reiterated for
  • 365-450kt SC5.2
  • C1 A$855-1,045/SC FOB
  • AISC A$1,060-1,295/SC FOB

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 0.43p, Mkt Cap £7.4m – NFM advancing towards potential copper production under MoU with Austral Resources

• New Frontier Minerals reports that Austral Resources will be visiting the Big One copper deposit site on the NWQ copper project in Queensland, Australia.
• The site is ~150km north of Mt Isa mines and hosts several historic and currently operating copper mines including Lady Annie, Mt Oxide and Capricorn Copper.
• New Frontier has >20 walk up targets, within its 977km2 tenement package including the ‘Big One’ copper project with a JORC inferred MRE of 2.1mt @ 1.1% Cu for 21,886kt of copper metal.
• Management see potential for a very substantial copper resources in the tenement package across 14 primary prospects, with a further 30 secondary prospects also identified.
• A recent surface sampling campaign was able to increase the priority copper target area which can enable a focused drilling campaign to be formulated and great potential for a strategic alignment with a development partner.

Strategic alliance (MoU) with Austral Resources

• The site visit with Austral Resources will help in the joint assessment of existing stockpiles and near-surface copper mineralisation.
• Collaboration with Austral is expected to further advance potential copper production through the utilisation of existing regional infrastructure.
• The new January MoU with Austral sets the foundation for a strategic alliance combining NFM’s copper prospects with Austral copper plant at Mt Kelly.

Copper tailings stockpiles

• ​Assays from grab samples on historic copper oxide stockpiles at the Big One show grade of 3.9-11.85% copper with leach recoveries of up to 99%.
• NFM’s geology team to work up drill targets across the Big One Deposit and surrounding areas to extend the area of known mineralisation.
• Further application for new tenements should also improve the land position in the area.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

South32 Ltd (S32 LN) 214p, Mkt Cap £9.9bn – Inflation hits Hermosa construction, CAPEX rises 53% to $3.3bn

• South32 provide an update on their ongoing construction project, Hermosa zinc-lead-silver project in Arizona.
• South32 is currently developing the Taylor orebody within the wider Hermosa project.
• The Company has completed an updated assessment of the Taylor project execution, extending its operating life by 5 years to 33 years.
• Below we outline key differences between the Feasibility study and today’s project update:
  • 4.3mtpa throughput: unchanged
  • First production: 2H28 vs 2H27 originally
  • Mined grades: 3.7% Zn, 4.1% Pb, 76g/t Ag vs 3.9% Zn, 4.3% Pb and 78g/t Ag
  • Annual payable ZnEq production: 314-346ktpa vs 318-364ktpa
  • Operating Costs: $100/t ore vs $86/t ore respectively
  • CAPEX: $3.3bn vs $2.16bn
  • SUSEX: $50mpa vs $36mpa
• Higher CAPEX reflects:
  • $100m worth of additional decline infrastructure
  • $450m in revised shaft construction costs
  • $500m in inflation and US tariff impacts
• Higher OPEX reflects higher assumed inflation and energy costs.
• Post-tax NPV7 of $4.5bn and IRR of 22% at $3,390/t Zn, $2,200/t Pb and $50/oz Ag.
• $2.1bn remains to be invested over 4Q26-2H28 in CAPEX with the majority of work packages now contracted or subject to final pricing.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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