Traders shorting copper on back of Asian economic slowdown due to interruption of Iran, UAE and Quatar LNG supply
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Strong 2025 results place Atalaya in a strong position for 2026
Botswana Minerals (BMIN LN) – Identification of copper targets in NW Botswana
East Star Resources (EST LN) – Verkhuba JV formalised with Xinhai Mining Services
Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Further extension of completion on Nara gold project acquisition
Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – BUY – Economic studies released for integrated separated REOs facilities (DFS Update Songwe Hill & PFS Pulawy)
Royal Road Minerals (RYR CN) – Drilling confirms porphyry-skarn potential in Colombia
Tesoro Gold (TSO AU) – Regional exploration programme identifies new drill targets
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – £4.7m fundraising as the Redmoor project attracts a new investor
Copper – Traders shorting copper on back of Asian economic slowdown due to interruption of Iran, UAE and Quatar LNG supply
- Asian markets fell hard overnight with the Hang Seng and Nikkei sharply lower.
- Crude oil jumped >$113 as air strikes disrupted critical LNG energy infrastructure, including the world’s largest LNG producer in Quatar.
- Investors continue to buy the US dollar as a safe haven trade
- Copper is now 2.5% lower despite consumer buying for the next four months.
Metals slump in wake of Iran war as dollar strengthens, Treasury yields climb and traders rotate into energy
- Gold prices have now fallen 7.5% over the past week, sliding 15% since the start of the US-Israel Iran war.
- Gold had initially rallied into the conflict, but has been a victim of profit taking, degrossing and dollar strength in the wake of the escalating Middle East situation.
- The dollar has strengthened following a weak 2025, with traders seeking safe haven assets and Treasuries remaining unattractive over renewed inflation concerns.
- Given gold’s 75% rally through 2025, it is not surprising to see traders take profits to cover margin calls and rotate into new trades like hydrocarbons amid renewed volatility.
- Silver is down 8% this morning, with platinum and palladium both down over 5% respectively.
- Copper has sold off in lockstep with precious metals, down 7% over the past week.
- Copper may be falling victim to similar factors as gold, with traders also focusing on sustained elevated levels in global inventories, sitting at six year highs.
- A sustained conflict in the Middle East may trigger a global recession, weighing on appetite for base metals such as copper.
- Similarly, zinc, aluminium and lead have all turned lower following continued escalation in the Middle East.
- The Fed’s more hawkish press conference yesterday helped lift the dollar, weighing on the wider metals complex.
- Aluminium prices shift lower as traders see macro impact of LNG shortages outweighing lower production from Gulf states
Thermal coal prices rise as power stations accelerate fuel-switching on higher LNG costs
- Australian benchmark thermal coal have risen 28% ytd to $137/t, having touched lows of $105/t in January.
- Rising LNG prices from war-driven supply disruption in the Gulf has increased the incentive for gas-to-coal switching in Asia and Europe.
- Bloomberg Intelligence suggests physical coal flows are yet to materially accelerate since the Iran conflict began, arguing the price rise reflects precautionary buying, logistics disruption and tightening vessel availability.
- However, higher freight costs on major coal transport routes, with a sustained thermal coal rally reliant on sustained physical demand.
- Qatari LNG supply disruptions this week from Iranian drone attacks have pushed European natural gas prices to €67/MWh.
- The Middle East supplies 66% of India’s LNG needs, 31% of China’s needs, 19% of South Korea’s and 14%of Japan’s.
- China can procure some supply from Russia, although many Asian buyers are reliant on seaborne imports.
- Bloomberg reports Japan held 11 days of LNG inventories in December, with India, China and South Korea holding 21, 28 and 39 days respectively.
- Major Coal Miners with most torque to higher thermal coal prices include:
- Glencore (GLEN LN) – 95-100mt in 2026 at $68/t FOB cash costs 2026 guidance
- Yancoal (YAL AU): 36.5-40.5mt at A$90-98/t
- New Hope (NHC AU): 10.2-11.5mt at A$81-89/t FOB cash costs
- Whitehaven* (WHC AU): 14-16mt at A$95-110/t
*SP Analyst(s) hold shares in Whitehaven Coal
How the Iran conflict is reshaping global commodity markets – IG TV: https://youtu.be/oE6-k3hQDsM?si=sXBMY_UOZpvMP8EA
| Dow Jones Industrials | -1.63% | at | 46,225 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -3.38% | at | 53,373 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -2.02% | at | 25,501 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -1.39% | at | 4,007 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.6 | at | 4.28 |
Currencies
US$1.1451/eur vs 1.1526/eur previous. Yen 159.19/$ vs 158.89/$. SAr 16.960/$ vs 16.625/$. $1.326/gbp vs $1.336/gbp. 0.703/aud vs 0.711/aud. CNY 6.901/$ vs 6.876/$.
Dollar Index 100.21 vs 99.65 previous.
Economics
US – The Fed kept rates level for a second consecutive meeting at 3.50-3.75%, in line with expectations,
- A rate cut would send a negative signal to markets and potentially risk worsening the equity market correction
- Jerome Powell said the central bank will not cute rates until inflation resumes downtrend.
- The Fed Chair added that it was to soon to gauge the effect of higher energy prices.
- “The thing that’s really important that we see this year is progress on inflation… If we don’t see that progress, then you won’t see the rate cut,” Powell said.
- Market odds of a rate cut have come down considerably and currently stand at <40% for a single reduction this year.
- That compares to 2-3 cuts expected earlier this year.
- Update dot plot released yesterday showed policymakers guiding for one rate cut this year followed by another one in 2027.
US considering sending thousands of troops to Middle East
- The move would give the US further options such as occupying Kharg Island.
- The US appears to be considering the potential to take control of substantial Iranian infrastructure.
- Iran would then need to consider the risk of damaging its key oil export terminal on trying to retake the island.
Trump says US ‘knew nothing’ about Israel’s attack on major Iran gas field
- Trump says he is looking to de-escalate attacks and the US was not part of the South Pars LNG strike in Iran.
- Trump also warned Iran the US would blow up the South Pars LNG terminal on any additional attacks by Iran on Quatar’s LNG.
- Iran has threatened to attack energy facilities around the Gulf causing oil prices to jump higher.
Iran – Intelligence minister killed by bunker busting bombs
- Israel and the US are unlikely to stop bombing Iran while the regime continues to fire missiles at Israel and other Gulf nations
- There are always many back channels in any conflict but de-escalation is going to require some diplomatic skill
- It is difficult to see regime change till it happens
- We hope MOSAD, the CIA and friendly local forces can form a plan
- Leaving the present Islamic regime under the Supreme Leader feels like an unworkable option
Japan – The central bank, as expected, held rates at 0.75% amid uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.
- The vote was 8-1.
- The BOJ pledged to raise rates if inflation matched its forecasts.
- Overseas investors net sold ~$3.1bn in equities last week marking the highest outflow since September.
- The selloff marked the end of a nine week growth streak driven by PM Takaichi fiscal expansion plans.
- Further drawdowns are likely to be reported this week.
- Nikkei is down 3.4% today taking losses for the week to 0.8%.
- Selling has been driven by rising energy prices with the nation importing most of its oil from the Middle East.
Eurozone – The ECB is to announce its rate decision later today with estimates for no change (2.15%).
- ECB likely to hold rates at 2% today
- Traders are now looking for a potential rate increase before the year end.
Switzerland – SNB holds rates
- The SNB is also looking to use stronger intervention to limit the rise in the SFr as investors run to safe-haven currencies.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,725/oz vs US$4,991/oz previous
Gold ETFs 99.2moz vs 99.4moz previous
Platinum US$1,937/oz vs US$2,095/oz previous
Palladium US$1,447/oz vs US$1,591/oz previous
Silver US$71.2/oz vs US$79.3/oz previous
Silver ETFs 805.8moz vs 804.3moz previous
Rhodium US$11,400/oz vs US$11,400/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$12,084/t vs US$12,660/t previous
Aluminium US$3,327/t vs US$3,349/t previous
Nickel US$16,685/t vs US$17,200/t previous
Zinc US$3,086/t vs US$3,201/t previous
Lead US$1,889/t vs US$1,931/t previous
Tin US$42,835/t vs US$46,785/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$113.2/bbl vs US$102.3/bbl previous
- US President Trump called for a de-escalation of attacks on energy infrastructure after Iran struck Qatar’s LNG facilities in response to an Israeli strike on the South Pars field, pledging that Israel would not attack Iran’s largest gas field again.
- The EIA’s weekly petroleum report estimated a w/w US inventory build of 6.2mb to crude, offset by draws of 5.4mb to gasoline and 2.5mb to distillate stocks, with refinery utilisation rising 0.6% to 91.4% on 13.7mb/d of domestic output.
- European energy prices jumped 25% on the Qatari attack as EU natural gas storage levels fell 0.4% w/w to 28.9% full (vs 41.5% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 330TWh and only the Netherlands’ storage levels under 20% full.
Natural Gas €66.9/MWh vs €51.3/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $84.8/lb vs $86.2/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$107.3/t vs US$107.7/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$464.9/t vs US$466.5/t
HCC FOB Australia US$221.0/t vs US$221.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$139.5/t vs US$135.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$107,592/t vs US$108,351/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$20,939/t vs US$21,597/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,015/t vs US$2,035/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,313/mtu vs US$2,313/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$245/lb vs US$238/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.7/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$29.1/kg vs US$29.1/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$259/t vs US$260/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,759/t vs US$2,759/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,137/t vs US$1,142/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$380.0/t vs US$380.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
EV & battery news
US battery imports at five-year low after tariffs raised to 25%
- US lithium battery demand is expected to total 182GWh in 2026, with 37% of this demand coming from battery energy storage system needs.
- The US is heavily reliant on Chinese battery imports for its energy storage needs, with US production not expected to reach domestic demand until 2028.
- Section 301 tariffs on battery imports have been raised from 7.5% to 25%, bringing total import tariffs to 38.4%, pushing Chinese battery imports to their lowest level since 2021.
- The US is less dependent on cell supply for EVs due to a greater use of NCM cells for which it has a stronger North American supply chain. China is dominant in the supply of LFP cells.
Company News:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -3.5% | -5.2% | Freeport-McMoRan | -4.5% | -9.9% |
| Rio Tinto | -3.2% | -1.1% | Vale | -2.7% | -4.2% |
| Glencore | -2.7% | -3.7% | Newmont Mining | -4.1% | -8.3% |
| Anglo American | -4.6% | -9.1% | Fortescue | -3.4% | -3.3% |
| Antofagasta | -5.2% | -11.3% | Teck Resources | -2.0% | -7.3% |
Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 729p, Mkt Cap £1,256m – Strong 2025 results place Atalaya in a strong position for 2026
- Atalaya Mining reports a 2025 profit of €85.4m (2024 – €32.6m) and declared a final dividend of €0.065/share bringing the total for the year to €0.109/share (2024 – €0.0637/sh).
- Annual copper production of 51,139t at an all-in-sustaining cost of US$2.90/lb (2024 – 46,227t at US$3.26/lb) generated revenue of €482.9m and EBITDA of €179.8m (2024 -Revenue of €326.8m and EBITDA of €66.4m).
- Net cash at the end of 2025 was €122m.
- CEO, Alberto Lavandeira, described 2025 as “a year of strong operational and financial delivery for Atalaya”.
- He said that “With a strong balance sheet, high‑quality assets and favourable long‑term copper fundamentals, Atalaya is well positioned to deliver on our 2026 goals”.
Botswana Minerals (BMIN LN) 0.27p, Mkt Cap £3.0m – Identification of copper targets in NW Botswana
- Botswana Minerals reports that, aided by AI analysis of exploration data, it has identified targets in its recently awarded copper exploration licences in northwest Botswana.
- Targets comprise two main types:
- “Anomalies with copper-silver-nickel-cobalt signatures, consistent with potential Besshi-type volcanogenic massive sulphide (“VMS”) systems”; and
- “A continuous geochemical corridor extending over approximately 20 kilometres, interpreted as consistent with Mississippi Valley-Type (“MVT”) lead-zinc mineralisation”.
- Additionally, Botswana Minerals has “identified iron oxide and clay alteration zones, which may represent surface expressions of underlying hydrothermal systems”.
- ,The company, which holds licences covering ~ 7,000km2 in the Damaran geological belt recently diversified its predominantly diamond-focussed exploration into copper in response to the weakness of the diamond sector while affirming that its mission “was and still is diamonds”.
- Chairman, John Teeling, commented that the AI work “has continued to deliver insights. Further work has identified two large-scale mineral systems, one prospective for copper, the second for lead-zinc, which will focus our next phase of exploration as we advance towards defining drilling targets”.
East Star Resources (EST LN) 3.46p, Mkt Cap £19m – Verkhuba JV formalised with Xinhai Mining Services
- Eat Star provides an update on its JV with Xinhai Mining Services at Verkhuba.
- Following the initial agreement on 11th December, the JV has now been formalised.
- The EPC firm Xinhai will finance, de-risk and accelerate development of Verkhuba.
- Xinhai will earn into 70% of the JV, with East Star full carried to production.
- Xinhai will fund 100% of the costs required for Verhuba, with the feasibility study, mine development and plant construction budgeted at $65m.
- Infill drilling and metallurgical test work sample collection will start in June, with focus on shallow open pit targets.
- Verkubha is expected to produce 10ktpa CuEq from a 1mtpa processing plant.
- East Star will retain 100% of its nearby prospects, including a 20.4mt Exploration Target at 2.4% CuEq at Rulikha.
Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.77p, Mkt Cap £34m – Further extension of completion on Nara gold project acquisition
- Kavango Resources report the further extension of the completion date on the acquisition of the Nara gold project in Zimbabwe.
- Management have exercised their option to acquire 100% of the Nara Gold Project on 1 July last year.
- Kavango and the seller have agreed to extend completion, to enable the finalisation of legal formalities.
- Management reported the completion of a 2nd phase of drilling in September confirming potential for a large-scale gold mineralised system at Nara.
- The team worked up a JORC M&I resource ~300kt grading 0.62g/t for ~6,000oz of gold at two tailings dumps at Nara.
- No date appears to have been set for the completion of Kavango’s full acquisition of the Nara licenses.
*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango
Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 45p, Mkt Cap 157m – Economic studies released for integrated separated REOs facilities (DFS Update Songwe Hill & PFS Pulawy)
BUY
- The Company released updated DFS for the Songwe Hill Rare Earths Project (Malawi) and PFS results for the Pulawy Separation Plant (Poland).
- Updated Songwe Hill Rare Earths Project DFS highlights include:
- Operational assumptions are little changed from the FS 2022
- 18y LOM
- 1mtpa operation
- ~6.0ktpa TREO contained in ~10.8ktpa MREC (55% TREO) over the first 5y reflecting higher processed grades
- ~4.6ktpa TREO contained in 8.4ktpa MREC (55% TREO) over LOM
- Devex ~$326m including ~$28m contingency (FS22: $311m)
- Susex ~$91m including ~$8m rehabilitation costs (FS22: $78m)
- Opex $22.3/kg TREO first 5y and $$26.1/kg over LOM (FS22: $25.3/kg and $30.1/kg)
- TREO basket price assumed ranging from $28.4/kg (2025) to $69.6/kg (2034) Base Case by Adamas Intelligence (FS22: ~$80-100/kg)
- 15% discount assumed for MREC produced at Songwe Hill for processing at Pulawy (FS22: 27%)
- Post Tax Nominal NPV10 and IRR $340m and 24% ($559m and 31%) Base Case
- Updated MRE (COG 0.55% TREO)
- M&I 38.1mt 1.15% 437kt TREO
- Inferred 55.9mt 1.05% 589kt TREO
- The resource is little changed at higher 1.0% COG applied previously in 2019 MRE.
- Reserves unchanged from the previous estimate
- 18.1mt 1.16% 211kt (COG 0.6% TREO)
- Pulawy Separation Plant PFS highlights include:
- 29y life of project
- The facility is expected to process MREC from the Songwe Hill Project as well 3rd party product for production of separated REOs
- 30ktpa MREC plant capacity
- Feed to be sourced from Songwe Hill (~45% of the feed over the first five years) with third party material (remaining 55%)
- The share of market sourced carbonate is expected to increase after the first five years helping to maintain throughput
- 15% discount for contained TREO value assumed for Songwe Hill carbonate and 25% for market sourced
- Devex $212m including $35m contingency
- Opex $2.1/kg TREO
- By Product Credit ~$0.5/kg TREO used from the ammonium bicarbonate produced
- Post Tax Nominal NPV10 and IRR $779m and 40%
- Timeline: construction April 2027, commissioning October 2028, ramp up 2Q29-1Q30
- The Company remains in the process of completing the Nasdaq listing of Mkango Rare Earths (MKAR), the proposed holding Company for Songwe Hill and Pulawy.
- Mkango to retain a major shareholding in MKAR post a demerger (~80%) with the deal expected to close 2Q26.
Conclusion: Updated DFS and PFS firm up economics for integrated production of separated REOs offering an opportunity to diversify source of supply in a China dominated industry. MREC produced in Malawi to be treated at the Pulawy Separation Facility (Poland) that benefits from good access to infrastructure/labour/reagents and allows the Group to capture more value within upstream and midstream parts of the supply chain. The focus now shifts to completion of the Nasdaq MKAR spin out followed by project FID, funding and start of development works.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources
Royal Road Minerals (RYR CN) C$0.19, Mkt Cap C$54m – Drilling confirms porphyry-skarn potential in Colombia
- Royal Road reports results from the first four holes of its 2,500m drilling programme at the GAM gold-copper-silver project in Colombia.
- The Company notes an emerging porphyry-skarn system from surface to 450m with bulk-tonnage underground mining potential.
- Drilling highlights include:
- GUI-DD-028: 176m at 1.2g/t AuEq from 18m (inc. 76m at 2.1g/t Au, 0.4% Cu, 7.9g/t Ag from 45m)
- GUI-DD-030: 43m at 0.6g/t AuEq from 44m
- GUI-DD-031: 194m at 0.6g/t AuEq from surface
- The porphyry-skarn system is believed to extend over 2km2 and at depths of over 500m, with grades enhanced by high-grade quartz carbonate veins.
- Management notes that several holes remain open in gold and copper mineralisation at depth.
- Further drilling will target a concealed corridor extending east-northeast from Guintar to the Niverengo target.
Tesoro Gold (TSO AU) A$0.96, Mkt Cap A$171m – Regional exploration programme identifies new drill targets
- Tesoro Gold provides an update on its regional exploration activities in Chile.
- The Company has completed including geophysical surveys and soil sampling, alongside the ongoing infill and extensional programmes.
- Tesoro has extended the El Zorro Gold Corridor by 10km, identifying several new intrusive bodies and structural features.
- Management notes it has identified several targets, with follow up drilling planned to identify new and expand existing drill targets.
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 4.4p, Mkt Cap £118m – £4.7m fundraising as the Redmoor project attracts a new investor
- Strategic Minerals reports that it has raised £4.7m via subscriptions for an additional 134.2m shares priced at 3.5p/share.
- Today’s announcement explains that the “Subscription was led by a prominent international investor who approached the Company, which the Board views as a strategically important moment in the Company’s development”.
- We estimate that the new shares represent around 4.8% of the enlarged capital.
- Proceeds will “significantly accelerate the Company’s Redmoor Tungsten-Tin-Copper Project in Cornwall … at an opportune time for the development of critical minerals”.
- Executive Chairman, Charles Manners, explained that the company seized the opportunity presented by the new investor’s approach “to fast-track the already accelerated development of the Redmoor Tungsten-Tin-Copper Project”.
- Welcoming the new investor, Mr. Manners described their support as “a clear endorsement of the Company’s high-quality asset base, and its objective to develop Redmoor and the surrounding area into a leading source of strategic and critical minerals here in the UK”.
- In January this year the company raised £4m by placing ~308m shares at 1.3p/share to fund “a 16,000 metre infill drilling programme … [which] … is expected to substantially complete all the required drilling for a prefeasibility study” and earlier this week the company announced a contract for the drilling work and the arrival on site of the first drilling rig for the programme.
Conclusion: Strategic Minerals has raised additional funds for its Redmoor project following the approach of an interested international investor. Earlier this week a drilling rig arrived on site ahead of the latest phase of drilling at Redmoor as the project moves towards a pre-feasibility study.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals
LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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