Gold falls as strong payrolls keep a September rise in play
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) – Conditions met for the KSK sale to Norin Mining
Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Appointment of new CEO to run gold mine and resource expansion in Zimbabwe
KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – Tulu Kapi development suspended following fatal security incident
Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – Amended Form F-4 filed
Rainbow Rare Earths* (RBW LN) – Uberaba rare earths project starts PFS in jv with Mosaic in Brazil
Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – Final pre-construction drilling starts at Barroso, Portugal
Sigma Lithium (SGML US) – Brazilian court rules to suspend Grota do Cirilo licenses (Reuters)
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Cobre stockpile access extended to March 2031
URU Metals* (URU LN) – Leapfrog model completed, resource drilling defined at Zeb
Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Phase 4 drill results increase depth extent of the Discovery Zone at Mushima North in Zambia
Gold ($4,398/oz) – Gold falls as strong payrolls keep a September rise in play
- US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
- Traders price a 58.4% chance of a rise at September meeting.
- US producer prices due Thursday and consumer prices Friday.
- Trump said Friday he would stop trading with deficit countries unless the Fed cuts rates.
Copper ($14,425/t) – Copper eases as strong US jobs data lifts rate rise bets
- Copper sits near January’s record of $14,527.50/t.
- Oil rose again after the US and Iran exchanged strikes on ships over the weekend.
- Miners covering two-thirds of world supply saw output fall 3.5% in the first half (Jefferies).
- Codelco and Freeport were both down double digits.
- Chile had its weakest second quarter in at least 19 years and now expects a 2.6% fall for the year.
- The DRC is the exception, with first-half shipments up more than 4%.
Pentagon magnet demand set to absorb half of non-China supply
- US defence demand for rare earth magnets should triple to 10,000tpa by 2030 (Sprott).
- The world makes only 20,000-25,000t of magnets outside China, so the Pentagon alone would take about half of it.
- China refines 91% of the rare earths that go into magnets and makes 94% of the magnets, but mines only 60% of the ore (IEA).
- A new mine in the West does little while the processing still happens in China.
- The Pentagon has guaranteed MP Materials $110/kg for its NdPr for ten years, and buyers for every magnet from its $1.25bn Texas plant.
Iron Ore – BHP responds to speculation over a WAIO partnership
- BHP has neither confirmed nor denied reports of a partnership covering part of its Western Australia Iron Ore business.
- BHP says WAIO stays central to its portfolio, having produced 257mt in the year to 30 June, flat yoy.
- WAIO runs five open-cut mines and four processing hubs in the Pilbara, plus 1,000km of rail and two ports.
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.51% | at | 53,414 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +2.12% | at | 66,400 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.78% | at | 25,452 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.07% | at | 3,933 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | – | at | 4.78 |
Currencies
US$1.1615/eur vs 1.1628/eur previous. Yen 155.76/$ vs 156.33/$. SAr 15.974/$ vs 15.992/$. $1.352/gbp vs $1.354/gbp. 0.722/aud vs 0.720/aud. CNY 6.712/$ vs 6.711/$.
Dollar Index 99.13 vs 99.04 previous.
Economics
US – Stronger than expected NFPs released last Friday raised odds of an interest hike this month (FOMC meeting 15-16 Sep).
- The economy added 162k jobs in August vs 55k forecast with previous month’s numbers also revised higher (21k v -23k).
- With robust labour numbers out, the focus is on high inflation with latest set of numbers due later this week.
Beth Hammack, Cleveland Fed President and a voting member of the FOMC, again argued for a hike.
- “Inflation is still above 3 per cent… The labour market is stable and near my estimate of maximum employment,” Hammack said.
- Hammack voted for a 25bp increase at the last meeting in July.
- NFPs (Aug / Jul / Est): 162k / 21k / 55k
- Unemployment Rate (Aug / Jul / Est): 4.1% / 4.1% / 4.1%
- Avg Hourly Earnings (%mom, Aug / Jul / Est): 0.3% / 0.2% / 0.3%
- Avg Hourly Earnings (%yoy Aug / Jul / Est): 3.1% / 3.2% / 3.1%
China – Lenders and insurers will be provided Rmb360bn (~$53bn) in an effort to prop up the financial sector’s margins and support economic growth.
- Eight institutions including state run commercial banks (incl ICBC, Agricultural Bank) and insurers China Life and China Reinsurance are on the list, FT reports.
- Funds to be provided by the Ministry of Finance (Rmb300bn) and state tobacco companies (Rmb60bn).
- The announcement follows a Rmb520bn funding initiative for the nation’s largest state owned lenders announced last year.
- Additional funds are expected to help companies boost lending while retaining adequate capital.
Germany – The Alternative for Germany (AfD) took 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt state election on Sunday, finishing first on a turnout of 77% but short of an overall majority.
- The result is a clear setback for Chancellor Merz, whose conservatives were heavily beaten in the state.
- Polling indicated 87% of voters there were dissatisfied with the federal government.
- Nationally the AfD leads on 28% versus 20% for the conservatives.
- The party advocates for strict immigration controls, restoring ties with Russia, cutting support for Ukraine and quitting euro.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,398/oz vs US$4,468/oz previous
Gold ETFs 99.4moz vs 99.5moz previous
Platinum US$1,813/oz vs US$1,815/oz previous
Palladium US$1,399/oz vs US$1,408/oz previous
Silver US$65.7/oz vs US$66.7/oz previous
Silver ETFs 799.8moz vs 799.9moz previous
Rhodium US$9,475/oz vs US$9,425/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,425/t vs US$14,338/t previous
Aluminium US$3,297/t vs US$3,308/t previous
Nickel US$16,785/t vs US$16,765/t previous
Zinc US$3,977/t vs US$3,931/t previous
Lead US$1,915/t vs US$1,911/t previous
Tin US$54,915/t vs US$54,895/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$97.1/bbl vs US$95.9/bbl previous
- With North American markets shut for Labor Day, which marks the traditional end of the US driving season, crude oil prices edged higher after the US struck three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend in retaliation for missile attacks.
- The US Baker Hughes rig count was flat at 588 units last week (+51 or +10% y/y), with oil rigs up 2 to 449 units (+35 y/y) and gas rigs down 2 to 130 units (+12 y/y), as the Canada rig count declined by 7 w/w to 204 units (+23 y/y).
- TotalEnergies announced the 5.6mtpa Papua LNG project has achieved c.$4bn cost savings since 2024 in reducing the capex budget to $14bn through project design optimisation and rebidding EPC packages with an enlarged panel of contractors. In addition, Santos increased its stake in the project by 3.3% to 21% for $189m cash consideration.
Natural Gas €74.0/MWh vs €72.3/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $89.7/lb vs $89.5/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.6/t vs US$99.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.3/t vs US$468.1/t
HCC FOB Australia US$275.0/t vs US$273.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$152.8/t vs US$148.5/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$46,430/t vs US$48,500/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$109,661/t vs US$108,769/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$22,275/t vs US$22,722/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,225/t vs US$2,245/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,070/t vs US$1,070/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,825/mtu vs US$1,825/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,995/mtu vs US$2,995/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$235/lb vs US$233/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vs US$390/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.8/kg vs US$24.8/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$187/t vs US$190/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,806/t vs US$2,806/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,170/t vs US$1,170/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$375.0/t vs US$385.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,255.0/kg vs US$4,255.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$440.0/kg vs US$440.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$33.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 1.1% | -5.0% | Freeport-McMoRan | 0.2% | -4.9% |
| Rio Tinto | 0.8% | 1.5% | Vale | -0.3% | 1.6% |
| Glencore | -0.7% | 0.3% | Newmont Mining | -1.8% | 0.1% |
| Anglo American | -0.2% | -2.6% | Fortescue | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Antofagasta | 0.0% | -3.1% | Teck Resources | 0.7% | -0.9% |
Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) 1.8p, Mkt Cap £60m – Conditions met for the KSK sale to Norin Mining
- Asiamet says all conditions for the sale of Indokal, which holds 100% of the KSK copper project in Indonesia, have been met or waived.
- The buyer is Norin Mining (Hong Kong).
- Completion is expected shortly.
Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.6p, Mkt Cap £30m – Appointment of new CEO to run gold mine and resource expansion in Zimbabwe
- Kavango report the appointment of Jasper Musadaidzwa as CEO of Kavango.
- Jasper comes from senior operational and executive roles with AngloGold Ashanti.
- He is a highly experienced mining executive with more than 27 years’ experience across the mining industry, including 17 years with AngloGold Ashanti (“AGA”), where he held a series of senior operational and executive leadership positions across Africa.
- Jasper recently ran AngloGold Ashanti’s Guinea Business leading a major operational and financial turnaround.
- Previously, Jasper served as Senior VP of Operations for with responsibility for four mines producing ~1.1mozpa of gold, ~US$2bnpa of sales and >14,000 people.
- Donald McAlister has also stepped down as Interim CEO and has been appointed as Executive Chairman.
- Jasper’s is a Zimbabwean national which often helps when managing local issues.
Conclusion: Kavango have done well to attract a man of Jasper’s expertise and his involvement following a recent site visit suggests he sees great future potential in the Kavango’s gold mining platform.
* SP Angel acts as Broker to Kavango and an analyst has visited the Kavango mine sites and holds shares in the company.
KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 0.75p, Mkt Cap £96m – Tulu Kapi development suspended following fatal security incident
Recommendation and TP under review
- The Company reports a security incident at Tulu Kapi Gold Project (Ethiopia) recorded on 4 September.
- The incident is reported to have involved multiple fatalities among security personnel and community members including one Company employee.
- Development activities were suspended until appropriate security measures for personnel and surrounding communities are secured.
- The team is engaged with relevant community representatives, Ethiopian Government authorities and security stakeholders to determine the appropriate conditions for a safe and orderly resumption of activities.
- The Company remains committed to the project development and will carefully manage its expenditures.
- Work completed to date includes commencement of a new access road (due December 2026), progress on the grid connection (due before end-2027 to support commissioning), plant and equipment orders with deliveries scheduled through 2027, and phased community resettlement.
- The Company will defer further drawdown and deployment of project finance during the suspension and states it holds sufficient cash and committed standby facilities to cover requirements through the period.
- At the moment, it is too early to forecast what impact, if any, the suspension will have on development timetable.
Conclusion: We are saddened to learn of the security incident and express condolences to those affected. Development works are suspended until the incident is assessed and appropriate security measures are agreed with all stakeholders including local communities, authorities and capital providers. We place our valuation and recommendation under review pending further security related guidance.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper
Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 43p, Mkt Cap £158m – Amended Form F-4 filed
BUY
- Mkango’s wholly-owned subsidiary Mkango Rare Earths Limited (MKAR) filed an amended Form F-4 with the SEC last week.
- The filing is related to the proposed business combination with Crown PropTech Acquistions (CPTK) and a planned Nasdaq listing of MKAR.
- Separately, CPTK and its sponsor entered into non-redemption agreements with funds and accounts managed by Blackrock subsidiaries to retain at least US$4.8m in CPTK (400k shares) and to substantially contribute to the US$5m minimum cash condition.
- In exchange, the existing one-year transfer restriction to be replaced with a 180-day period.
- A further, ~1.8m shares held by prior non-redemption counterparties become eligible for the same shortened restriction.
- Anticipated per-share liquidation value of CPTK public shares was approximately US$12.01 based on trust holdings at 31 July 2026.
- The amended and restated business combination agreement consolidates the February and May 2026 amendments with material economic terms remaining unchanged.
Conclusion: The amended F-4 advances the proposed business combination through SEC review and is a step toward the expected Nasdaq listing of MKAR.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Mkango Resources
Rainbow Rare Earths* (RBW LN) 24.45p, mkt Cap £171m – Uberaba rare earths project starts PFS in jv with Mosaic in Brazil
(Mosaic hold 51% of the Uberaba REE project with Rainbow holding 49%. At Phalaborwa Rainbow hold 70% with 30% to be held by Bosveld Phosphates)
- Rainbow report the start of a PFS on the Uberaba REE project in Brazil.
- Mosaic produce phosphate from the Uberaba mine which results in a similar Phospho-gypsum residue as the Phalaborwa project in South Africa.
- Trial processing is to be done on ~6 tonnes of feedstock at Rainbow’s lab at Mintec in South Africa.
- The time required for the trial processing and report collation means the PFS will be due H2 2027
- The PFS should be relatively straightforward and simply replicate the work done at Phalaborwa.
- The proposed 2.7mtpa is a bit larger than the 2.2mtpa planned for Phalaborwa and at this scale you want to double check the plant is going to work perfectly before construction.
- The assumed grade is very similar Phalaborwa at 0.51% ppm TREO vs 0.43% to 0.51% TREO in South Africa.
- Because, Rainbow is using a hydrometallurgical process, the process should require only minor adjustment to suit the chemistry of the Uberaba project.
- We see Uberaba as presenting a similar cost base to Phalaborwa though the production of the resultant rare earths will be different according to the REEs contained and the recovery rates from the process.
- SRK consulting are also preparing a JORC resource on the waste residues
- The proposed Uberaba process plant should produce NdPr oxide and a SEG+ ‘samarium, europium, gadolinium plus’ carbonate with medium and heavy REE at 99.5%.
- An economic assessment in March showed an estimated post-tax NPV10 of US$916m, post-tax IRR at 45%, an av. EBITDA of US$217mpa and pay-back of 1.7 years.
- Critically, the process should produce a broad suite of REEs within the lowest-cost quartile of REE oxide and SEG+ carbonate production.
- Rainbow reported in July their team are completing the final optimisation of the SX circuit and that 75% of the process Phalaborwa flowsheet is in now in the engineering phase for the DFS.
- Pilot test work has enabled the team to optimise and simplify the Phalaborwa process flowsheet which should reduce some capital costs.
- Importantly, the first stage of the process is now able to feed a MREC ‘mixed rare earth feed’ directly into the SX separation process from the CIX ‘Continuous ion Exchange circuit.
- The plant is now able to produce NdPr oxide at 99.5% purity alongside Dy, Tb and Y for significantly better revenue.
Conclusion: Rainbow are methodically refining and optimising their REE process. The Uberaba and Phalaborwa projects could make up around 13% of global NdPr oxide production and 5-6% of global Dysprosium and Terbium output.
*The SP Angel analyst recently visited the Rainbow pilot process plant in Johannesburg
Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 5.9p, Mkt Cap £153m – Final pre-construction drilling starts at Barroso, Portugal
BUY – 17.6p
- Savannah has started the last drilling before construction at Barroso in Portugal.
- Barroso is Europe’s largest spodumene deposit and an EU Strategic Project.
- Drilling:
- Two rigs on site, one for geotechnical work, one installing water monitoring bores
- A third arrives shortly, a fourth later this month
- The work should take about four weeks
- It was held up by forest fire restrictions, now lifted
- Results feed the final designs for the water reservoirs, tailings facility, waste dumps and roads
- The water bores track groundwater before, during and after construction
- Engineering and finance:
- Technical and environmental due diligence for project finance is well advanced
- Final reports go to shortlisted lenders in due course
- Detailed design of the water reservoirs is well advanced
- That design feeds the report needed for RECAPE, the remaining licence
- The plant FEED contractor has been picked, with work starting this week
- Team:
- Jose Almeida joined as FEED engineer in August
- A project director and a contracts manager are being recruited
- Ten more roles are due to be filled by end-2026
- Savannah has signed an MoU with the parish church body of Boticas, its seventh local agreement this year.
- CEO Emanuel Proença commented: “It marks another step towards the final engineering designs needed for financing and construction.”
Conclusion: This is the last field work before final engineering, and it runs while lenders do their due diligence, so design and funding advance together. Going forward, focus moves to FEED, the RECAPE licence and project finance.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources
Sigma Lithium (SGML US) US$12.4, Mkt Cap US$1.4bn – Brazilian court rules to suspend Grota do Cirilo licenses (Reuters)
- The Company was ordered to suspend environmental licenses and mining activities at Grota do Cirilo Lithium Mine by a Brazilian court, Reuters reports.
- The court decision was made on Friday in a civil suit brought by a local community (the Federation of Quilombola Communities of Minas Gerais).
- The case states that operations are within the direct area of influence of the Bau Quilombola Community.
- The judge cited studies indicating that the project area is around 2.7km from the directly affected territories, within the 8km threshold that triggers the extensive consultation process.
- The news follows the announcement by the Company earlier in August on a resumption of operations on securing a TAX Agreement with the State of Minas Gerais post just over a month long suspension.
- Operations were suspended in July as authorities reviewed environmental technical documentation provided by the Company.
- A TAC Agreement is a standardized form of agreement (Terms of Adjustment of Procedures) between regulators and companies that is used to resolve different corporate/environmental matters.
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 5.2p, Mkt Cap £147m – Cobre stockpile access extended to March 2031
- Strategic Minerals has extended access to the Cobre magnetite stockpile in New Mexico to 31 March 2031.
- The extension comes through a third amendment to the sales contract, with all other terms unchanged.
- Cobre sold 61,279 tons last year for US$4.2m, at an ~85% operating margin.
- Profits from Cobre sales cover general and administrative costs and fund work on the Redmoor tungsten, tin and copper project in Cornwall.
- Three rigs are drilling 22,500m at Redmoor, where the resource rose 49% this year to 17.4mt inferred.
- Mark Burnett, Executive Director, commented: “The extension provides further certainty around an important source of internal cash flow.”
Conclusion: Two more years of Cobre cash covers running costs contributes to keeping the drills turning at Redmoor.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals
URU Metals* (URU LN) 4.00p, Mkt Cap £3.9m – Leapfrog model completed, resource drilling defined at Zeb
- URU has finished the 3D geological model of its Zeb nickel project in Limpopo, South Africa.
- Atticus Geoscience built it, putting the drill results, geology and survey data into one picture.
- The model has been used to place and rank the next drill holes.
- Model:
- Zone 2 holds the better nickel, copper and platinum grades
- The model shows it as one continuous band, not separate patches
- Drilling has traced it over 3.5km, and it runs below the deepest holes
- Blank spots in the old records are holes that stopped short of it
- The host rocks match Platreef and Mogalakwena, two large mines nearby
- Drilling:
- The first aim is a maiden resource on Zone 2, with holes 150-200m apart
- Each site takes two holes, a shallow one near surface and a steeper one at depth
- The second aim is Target 1, where an old magma channel widens into a larger body
- Heavy nickel sulphide can settle out at such a widening
- Target 1 sits in the same corridor as three earlier sulphide hits, one returning 2.25m at 1.67% Ni
- Holes drilled to Zone 2 pass through the shallower Zone 1 on the way, adding data at no extra cost.
- CEO John Zorbas commented: “The objective of this programme is a maiden Mineral Resource on Zone 2 and a first drill test of Target 1. Either outcome would change how this asset is understood; both together would change how it is valued and funded.”
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals
Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.06p, Mkt Cap £4.5m – Phase 4 drill results increase depth extent of the Discovery Zone at Mushima North in Zambia
- Tertiary Minerals report laboratory results from Phase 4 infill drilling at the Discovery Zone to increases the depth extent of thick, near surface silver-copper mineralisation at Target A1, Mushima North
- “All seven holes intersected near surface, silver-copper-zinc mineralisation and extend the mineralisation at depth with the majority of holes ending in mineralisation.”
- Results include:
- 67m at 40g/t Ag, 0.10% Cu and 0.30% Zn (51 g/t Ag eq.) from 19m downhole – ends in mineralisation.
- 82m at 37 g/t Ag, 0.11% Cu and 0.54% Zn (53 g/t Ag eq.) from 7m downhole.
- 46m at 41 g/t Ag, 0.19% Cu and 0.65% Zn (53 g/t Ag eq.) from 7m downhole – ends in mineralisation.
“Higher-grade silver-copper mineralisation zone further supported, with drill intersections including (downhole widths, true widths unknown):”
-
- 22m at 90 g/t Ag, 0.13% Cu and 0.44% Zn (105 g/t Ag eq.) from 64m downhole – ends in mineralisation).
- 12m at 80 g/t Ag, 0.21% Cu and 0.67% Zn (104 g/t Ag eq.) from 35m downhole – ends in mineralisation).
- 11m at 97 g/t Ag, 0.07% Cu and 0.54% Zn (110 g/t Ag eq.) from 43m downhole – ends in mineralisation).
- Tertiary drilled 39 (3,639m) RC holes with more drill results to come from the laboratory.
- The last set of six drill results showed similar intersections and grades with Bismuth also encountered in one drill hole.
- Antimony and cobalt are also seen to be present.
- 6m at 0.32% Bi, 0.32% Co, 15 g/t Ag and 0.22% Cu from 79m downhole (26TMNRC-047).
- Copper eq. and silver eq. were calculated assuming copper at US$11,000/t, silver: US$57/oz, zinc: US$3042/t and 100% recovery rates.
Conclusion: The release of another set of impressive drill results adds to the visible value of Mushima North.
We expect deeper drilling to reveal the presence of an underlying sulphide mineralised zone.
If decent copper grades are encountered in drilling within an underlying sulphide zone then we would expect a significant increase in value.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
DISCLAIMER
This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.
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