Gold edges lower following dollar rebound after US jobs miss
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Conroy Gold and Natural Resources (CGNR LN) – Phase 1 drilling completed at Clontibret
Goldstone Resources (GRL LN) – £3.5m investment from Persistence Gold
Greatland Resources (GGP LN) – Telfer beats FY production guidance
Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – Further step-out holes at Mbe support MRE expansion
Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Planned fundraising for the Empire project, Idaho
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Drilling begins at Molopo Farms, Botswana
Vault Minerals (VAU AU) – Genesis interlopes Regis’ merger deal
Gold ($4,147/oz) edges lower following dollar rebound after US jobs miss
- Gold jumped to $4,202/oz this morning but subsequently pulled back as the dollar rebounded.
- The metal rallied after US labour data came below expectations.
- The dollar index is up 24bp this morning having fallen in the wake of the non-farm payroll data.
- Gold had become vulnerable to a stronger dollar, falling below $4,000/oz last week.
- The metal is now up 3% over the past week as the dollar rally cooled.
Nickel – Indonesia’s RKAB revision starts in July, but no new quota is set
- The Indonesian RKAB ‘the permits that cap how much each miner can produce’ begins in July, with a 31 July deadline to apply.
- According to ESDM ‘the energy and minerals ministry’, no final added quotas have been fixed, and any figures circulating are not true.
- Director-general Tri Winarno again denied talk of a 360mt nickel quota.
- The approved 2026 nickel quota stays at about 260 to 270mt.
- This is well below the 320mt million tonnes actually mined in 2025.
Rare Earths prices continue to rise as US puts $75m into pulling rare earths from coal
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$111,882/t vsUS$110,918/t
- The US Department of Energy awarded $75m to five pilot plants for the extraction of REEs from coal in various forms.
- They will recover rare earths and metals like gallium from coal and coal waste.
- Recipients include Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) and American Resources (Nasdaq: AREC).
- It builds on a near $1bn push since last August to grow home-grown supply and cut reliance on China.
- It has long been known that coal fly ash and waste from old coal mines contains REEs but the tonnages of waste with higher-grade REEs and the grade in fly ash have not looked attractive.
- These REEs almost certainly come from the secondary accumulation of REEs in strata within the formation of coal.
GreenMet plans a $150m rare-earth hub in West Virginia
- GreenMet, a Washington critical-minerals firm, will build a $150m processing hub in West Virginia, fully backed by private capital.
- The hub will recover REE from coal tailings.
- It has secured feed from Greenland, Canada and Cameroon.
- The hub should create about 250 jobs, with a further $10bn lined up for related projects.
Tungsten – a war-bellwether mine reopens as prices jump eight-fold
- Dolphin Mine, Australia, the highest-grade large tungsten deposit outside China, is reopening (Bloomberg).
- The mine hopes to supply 2,000t a year, about 2.4% of world output.
Copper – US Customs (CBP) issues Withhold Release Order on Serbia Zijin Copper
- The US CBP agency will detain imports of copper and copper products in Serbia by Serbia Zijin Copper D.O.O.effective immediately.
- This WRO is the result of a CBP investigation and review of information that Serbia Zijin manufactures copper and copper products using forced labor.
- The CBP analysed supporting evidence: worker statements, photographs, focus group field notes, text message screenshots, open-source non-government organization reports, news media, and academic research.
- Taken together, the evidence demonstrated that workers at Serbia Zijin are subject to six International Labour Organization indicators of forced labor: abuse of vulnerability, withholding of wages, intimidation and threats, restriction of movement, retention of identity documents, and excessive overtime. The facts underlying these indicators show, by reasonable suspicion, that workers are engaged in forced labor (i.e., work performed involuntarily and under menace of penalty). Additionally, CBP trade import data demonstrates that the goods are being, or are likely to be, imported into the United States.
- The WRO against Serbia Zijin highlights CBP’s continued efforts to combat forced labor. With this action, CBP now oversees and enforces 56 WROs and eight Findings under 19 U.S.C. § 1307.
- Importers of detained shipments may either destroy or export their shipments, or they may seek to demonstrate that the merchandise was not produced with forced labor.
- CBP receives allegations of forced labor from a variety of sources including government agencies, media, non-government organizations, and members of the public.
- Some companies won’t touch Bisha mine concs for the same reason. i.e various mine machinery made in china and shipped over to serbia.
- Sources suggest Chinese prisoners are offered their freedom if they work for three years in overseas mine.
Adani’s Indian copper approved as a deliverable brand
- Adani Copper was approved for delivery against London Metal Exchange contracts, with trading from 10 July.
- It is made by Kutch Copper, an Adani plant in Gujarat, one of India’s largest at 500,000t/yr.
- According to Adani, the $1.2bn plant is the world’s biggest single-site copper smelter of its kind.
- It is built to cut India’s imports, which were 238,080t of refined copper in 2025, down 18% on the year.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +1.14% | at | 52,900 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.01% | at | 69,738 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.85% | at | 23,547 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.06% | at | 4,041 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -2.4 | at | 4.46 |
Currencies
US$1.1424/eur vs1.1405/eur previous. Yen 162.18/$ vs162.13/$.SAr 16.225/$ vs16.411/$.$1.334/gbp vs$1.324/gbp.0.693/aud vs0.688/aud.CNY 6.793/$ vs6.784/$.
Dollar Index 101.04 vs101.24 previous.
Dollar index partially retraced Friday’s losses following dovish remarks from the Fed Chairman Warsh and softer US jobs data earlier in the week.
Economics
China – China is boosting its yuan-clearing processes across to help trade in its currency.
- Standard Bank and ICBC will clear renminbi transactions across 19 African states, effectively operating as the ‘Renminbi Clearing Bank of Africa,’ to enable more direct access to China’s financial system.
- The move follows growing China–Africa trade and Beijing’s wider attempt to reduce reliance on the US dollar in cross-border transactions. Standard Bank had already joined China’s Cross-Border
- The system will allow African states easier greater trade and investment with Chinese businesses without the use of US dollars.
- The move gives China a stronger institutional bridge for trade and gives China a financial infrastructure lever that is less visible than ports, railways or mines.
Europe – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposes Lite membership of EU whereby a nation may join the bloc but without all the benefits.
- Ukraine is strongly opposed to the proposal indicating, soldiers and civilians were not symbolically being killed by Russia.
- EU countries have less than 10 days to agree on a new package of sanctions against Russia before the bloc automatically updates its price cap on 15 July (Euronews’)
Ukraine – Russia continues to launch waves of missiles and drones at Kyiv killing 14 overnight
- Zelenskyy had warned Moscow was preparing a new large scale strike urging allies to speed up deliveries of air defence missiles, particularly for Patriot systems.
Iran – Transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz recovers, although, most of the traffic is attributed to “dark voyages” with turned off GPS trackers
- Expect, more cat-and-mouse action in the Strait of Hormuz as ships attempt the passage.
-
- Wednesday: Eight ships passed
- Thursday: 38 ships passed through the Strait on Thursday with 11 Iran-flag vessels.
- Saturday: Eight ships turned around after direct IRGC warnings (UKMTO).
- Sunday fewer ships attempted the passage.
- A vessel in the Red Sea also sent a distress signal after it was attacked by ‘unknown armed assailants’ off Yemen.
- ~135 ships per day registered passage through the Strait before the start of the war.
- ‘Dark voyages’ are estimated to have reached a total of 258 in the week to June, up from 41 in the first week of the crisis in March.
- Oman held talks with Iran, France and the UK over the future governance of the Strait.
- US is talking about limited strikes against Iran if they continue to attack shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran – Funeral of Ali Khamenei passes without incident but what happens next?
Authorities are staging a week long funeral of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini
- Three of Khamenei’s sons appeared at Tehran funeral prayers, but new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was absent, fuelling speculation over his reported injuries.
- Slogans such as ‘Great Satan’, the US and ‘Death to Trump’ are part of the course in Iran, though a few radicals mean it more than many others.
- Mojtaba Khamenei did not appear at the funeral due to concerns over his safety.
- In a feat of organisation by the state authorities and the volunteer civic army that fed and housed the mourners, no one was killed – unlike at previous state-linked funerals that rapidly descended into chaos, including that of the previous supreme leader. (The Guardian).
Japan – The yen is on course to lose its alleged intervention-related gains.
- The currency slipped past 162 this morning.
- The fall in the currency has been accompanied by an increase in government bond yields.
- Markets are worried about fiscal expansion and the risk that the BOJ would fall behind the curve in responding to inflation.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,157/oz vsUS$4,177/oz previous
Gold ETFs 96.4moz vs96.7moz previous
Platinum US$1,649/oz vsUS$1,666/oz previous
Palladium US$1,285/oz vsUS$1,283/oz previous
Silver US$62.0/oz vsUS$62.7/oz previous
Silver ETFs 783.0moz vs783.0moz previous
Rhodium US$8,100/oz vsUS$8,100/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,393/t vs US$13,413/t previous
Aluminium US$3,115/t vsUS$3,110/t previous
Nickel US$16,335/t vsUS$16,465/t previous
Zinc US$3,557/t vsUS$3,520/t previous
Lead US$1,891/t vsUS$1,891/t previous
Tin US$52,840/t vsUS$52,310/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$71.9/bbl vsUS$71.9/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices were broadly unchanged as the OPEC+ Group of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman agreed over the weekend to return 188kb/d of the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023.
- The US Baker Hughes rig count rose 7 to 580 units last week (+41 y/y), with oil rigs up 5 to 445 units (+20 y/y) and gas rigs up 1 to 126 units (+18 y/y), with the Permian adding 3 units to 261 rigs (-4 y/y).
- Two members of the UK’s Energy Security and Net Zero Committee have called for greater pragmatism on oil & gas policy, calling for the Government to provide certainty around the Rosebank and Jackdaw developments in the UK North Sea and early delivery of the Oil and Gas Price Mechanism, the new tax regime agreed with the Treasury.
Natural Gas €44.9/MWh vs€44.2/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $85.1/lb vs$85.1/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$98.3/t vsUS$97.6/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$473.5/t vsUS$475.3/t
HCC FOB Australia US$241.0/t vsUS$242.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$128.8/t vsUS$128.8/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vsUS$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$111,882/t vsUS$110,918/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$23,186/t vsUS$22,626/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,245/t vsUS$2,245/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vsUS$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,705/mtu vsUS$1,705/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$226/lb vsUS$226/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vsUS$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vsUS$5.7/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.0/kg vsUS$27.0/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$219/t vs US$219/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vsUS$2,809/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,156/t vsUS$1,157/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vsUS$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vsUS$397.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,075.0/kg vsUS$4,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$410.0/kg vs US$410.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$31.5/lb vsUS$31.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
Battery Metals – the price recovery meets a stop-start EV market
- According to a Reuters column, the battery-metals bust is over, with lithium, cobalt and nickel all up from their 2024 to 2025 lows.
- The recovery came mostly from supply cuts, not strong demand.
- Global EV sales growth slowed to just 0.9% in January to May, with North America down 25% and China down 15%, but Europe up 26%.
- Grid storage ‘big batteries that store power for the grid’ is a new demand leg, at 15% of battery demand in 2025.
- But storage uses LFP ‘lithium iron phosphate’ batteries, eg. no cobalt or nickel.
- Lithium’s near threefold rise since mid-2025 is raising Li-ion battery costs and risks holding-back demand.
UK EV sales jump 38% and reach 30% of UK new car market in June
- Battery-electric vehicle registrations jumped 38% in June to 64,440 units, pushing EVs to nearly 30% of the new car market.
- The 64,440 battery-electric registrations represent about 29.8% of the 215,921 total new cars registered in June, up from 27% share in May.
- The battery-electric share across the broader EU, EFTA, and UK region sat at 19.7% ytd to April, according to ACEA.
- Tesla saw a 42% growth yoy for June, which looks significant, but the company is recovering from a drastic slump over the last few years.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.7% | -0.9% | Freeport-McMoRan | -1.3% | -11.0% |
| Rio Tinto | -0.9% | -2.0% | Vale | -0.3% | -4.3% |
| Glencore | 2.1% | -2.6% | Newmont Mining | -1.7% | -7.2% |
| Anglo American | 2.6% | 0.3% | Fortescue | -1.9% | -0.6% |
| Antofagasta | 2.6% | 2.8% | Teck Resources | 0.0% | -8.2% |
Conroy Gold and Natural Resources (CGNR LN) 7.75p, Mkt Cap £6.0m – Phase 1 drilling completed at Clontibret
- Conroy Gold reports that it has now completed its 5-hole Phase 1 drilling programme at Clontibret.
- The company explains that while it still waiting for results from hole CGC-25-007 which targets stockwork mineralisation previously intersected in hole CGC-25-001.
- The Phase 1 results “indicate continuity both along strike and at depth … increasing confidence in continuity between Clontibret and the Corcaskea target”.
- Chairman, John Sherman, described the completion of the Phase 1 work as “a significant milestone for the Company … [which shows] … continuity of the system northwards towards Corcaskea”
- Phase 2 work has started to target “the extension of the Orlock Bridge Fault from the mineralisation in the Clay Lake target southwestwards towards the Clontibret deposit”.
Goldstone Resources (GRL LN) 0.65p, Mkt Cap £9m – £3.5m investment from Persistence Gold
- The Company is raising £3.5m with Persistence Gold to ramp up Homase Gold Mine operations in Ghana progress exploration work.
- Persistence Gold is a HK listed mining and investment company (2489 HK, Mkt Cap ~US$230m).
- Proceeds to be used for:
-
- Drilling programme at Homase to increase and upgrade the MRE;
- Exploration at other Company’s licenses;
- Mine planning and technical studies;
- Working capital.
- Persistence Gold will subscribe for 351.6m shares at 1p each and to hold ~21% in the Company.
- Persistence will have the right to nominate one Director to the Board as long as its interest remains over 15%.
- Jeff Malaihollo will join the Board as NED and Persistence representative.
- Mr Malaihollo holds a geology degree from UNiversidyt of California, Santa Barabara (1987) and served as director to a number of AIM and ASX listed companies.
- Persistence holds a diversified portfolio of producing and advance stage development gold projects in China.
Greatland Resources (GGP LN) 610.5p, Mkt Cap £4,088m – Telfer beats FY production guidance
- Greatland Resources, which operates the Telfer mine, WA reports production of 79,099oz of gold and 3,573t of copper, over the 3 months to 30th June bringing FY gold output to 328,986oz and 14,594t of copper exceeding the annual guidance range of 260-310,000oz.
- Further details, including production costs, are expected in the quarterly report which is being released later in July.
- Annual sales are reported as 326,859oz of gold and 14,729t of copper.
- The company reports that it was debt free at 30th June with $1.29bn of cash.
- Last month Greatland Resources announced a 150% increase in the ore reserve estimate at Telfer to 1.8moz.
Conclusion: Production at Telfer has exceeded FY production guidance with output of 328,986oz.
Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.36p, Mkt cap £18m – Further step-out holes at Mbe support MRE expansion
- Cameroonian gold explorer Oriole provides additional drilling results from its Mbe Project.
- The Company reports assays from the MB01-S deposit, where it is conducting step-out drilling to expand the current MRE which currently hosts 870koz Au.
- Two holes reported today returned highlights of:
-
- MBDD048: 16.4m at 1.65g/t Au from 117m, 2m at 1.2g/t Au from 88m and 2m at 1.07g/t Au from 26m
- MBDD049: 27m at 0.61g/t Au from 203m (inc. 5m at 1.7g/t Au)
- Management notes these holes confirm south-eastwards extensions of known mineralisation and boost the prospect of expansion at MB01-S.
- The Company expects to deliver an updated MRE for the MB01-S prospect in 3Q26.
Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) 0.45p, Mkt Cap £3.2m – Planned fundraising for the Empire project, Idaho
(Phoenix holds 80% of the Empire mining property in Idaho)
- On Friday afternoon, Phoenix Copper reported plans to raise ~£2.3m (~£2m net) via a Placing & Subscription of around 460m new shares at a price of 0.5p/share.
- “The Issue Price is 0.5 pence per Ordinary Share, which represents a discount of approximately 54.5 per cent. to the closing mid-market price of 1.1 pence per Ordinary Share on 2 July 2026, being the latest practicable date prior to the announcement of the Fundraising”.
- The proposed fund raising is subject to “amongst other things, the passing of the Resolutions at the Annual General Meeting of the Company to be convened for on or around 24 July 2026”.
- “The net proceeds from the Fundraising are intended to be used for the repayment of short-term debt … process design engineering activities, UK and US operational costs, current operational debt service and for working capital purposes”.
- £1.7 million will be raised “through the issue of new ordinary shares” in a Placing while a further £0.6m will be offered as a subscription.
- Friday’s announcement confirms that the “Directors believe the Fundraising will provide the financial flexibility to sustain the Company for the short term, but the Directors anticipate that, in addition to sourcing the funding required for the construction of the Empire Mine, further funds will be required to progress the Company’s activities in the near term and in any event before the end of September 2026”.
- The company’s pre-feasibility study describes open-pit production of over 40,000t of copper, ~40,000oz of gold and 1.76oz of silver over an 8-year life of the planned open-pit mining of the 10.1mt reserve at the Empire project in Idaho.
- “Beyond the open-pit, the Company’s portfolio includes the Empire Copper Sulphide Vein System, a high-grade underground target where 2021 drilling intercepted 8.38% copper, 2.9 g/t gold, 187 g/t silver and 4.93% zinc, and the Navarre Creek grassroots gold exploration project, where 2023 drilling identified a continuous zone of anomalous gold mineralisation across the Lehman Creek target”.
Conclusion: The company is planning to raise £2.3m as it works to progress development of the Empire open-pit copper project.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Phoenix Copper
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 12p, Mkt cap £13.7m – Drilling begins at Molopo Farms, Botswana
- Power Metal Resources provides an update from its polymetallic Molopo Farms Complex in Botswana.
- The Company announces it has received an extension of its Prospecting Licence through to March 2028.
- A 1,600m drilling programme has begun targeting five priority targets on the eastern feeder zone of the igneous complex.
- Drilling has been supported by magnetic, AMT and TDEM data alongside ground magnetic traverses.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metal Resources
Vault Minerals (VAU AU) A$5.1, Mkt cap A$5.3bn – Genesis interlopes Regis’ merger deal
- Australian gold producer Vault reports it has received a superior proposal from Genesis Minerals.
- Genesis is offering to merge with Vault for 0.7629/share in Genesis and A$0.475 in cash.
- The proposal values Vault at A$5.6bn or A$5.274/share on Genesis’ 3rd July closing price, with Genesis shareholders owning 60% of the pro-forma group.
- The proposal marks a 14.5% premium to Regis’ implied offer price at closing on 3rd July.
- The Vault board have a considered Genesis’ proposal a superior offer.
- The combined entity would hold 9.4moz in reserves and produce 600-700kozpa.
- Genesis estimates A$2bn in synergies over ten years, focused on the combination of the Leonora and Bardoc-Mt Monger operations.
- Genesis management also highlights the benefits of increased scale, liquidity and ‘quality of cash flows’ attractive to investors.
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Analysts
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Sales
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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