Gold edges lower as market continues to weigh Iran implications
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Placings raise US$8.4m at ~1p/s
New Found Gold (NFG CN) – Loan facility agreed with Nebari for Queensway construction
New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) – Tungsten discovered at Bank Prospect
NexGen Energy (NXE CN) – Environmental licence enables Rook I construction
Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – Interims highlight ongoing progress towards DFS
Gold ($5,083/oz) edges lower as market continues to weigh Iran implications
- Gold prices have continued to fall from their post-Iran strike jump.
- The metal had rallied into the military operation and traders continue to take profits.
- Prices touched $5,425/oz but have eased despite continued aggression from both US-Israel and Iran.
- The dollar has extended gains, weighing on the wider metals spectrum.
- Meanwhile US Treasuries have risen from their recent lows as traders weigh inflation implications from higher oil prices.
- The VIX has pushed higher this morning amid ongoing volatility in markets.
Aluminium ($3,323/t) nears five year highs on supply disruption from the Middle East
- Aluminium prices have risen 23% over the past year and 6% over the past week.
- The Gulf region smelts c.10% of global primary aluminium supply, predominantly from the UAE and Bahrain.
- Reuters reports LME stocks are dwindling, with LME stocks hitting their lowest level since 2020.
- Additionally, usable aluminium remains constrained by Russian tariffs, with LME inventories stocked 58% with Russian metal.
Trump strikes deal for Venezuelan gold
- Trump has reportedly agreed a deal between Venezuela’s state mining company Minerven and Trafigura.
- Minerven will reportedly sell between up to 32koz Au of gold dore to Trafigura.
- The US is looking to revive oil and mineral production in Venezuela following the removal of Maduro.
- Trafigura is growing its presence in precious metals amid increasing volatility.
US – Brent prices over $86/bbl as markets are questioning length of the US/Israel/Iran war and disruption to maritime shipments.
- Iran launched a new wav of missile and drone attacks across the Gulf last evening including the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar ad Kuwait..
- Iran declined reports that Tehran reached out for a potential deal and that it has not asked for a ceasefire.
- Higher crude and gas prices saw Treasuries lower with 10y yields over 4.1% on inflationary concerns.
US gasoline prices are reported to have hit the highest since 2024.
- The retail price of gasoline climbed to $3.32 on Thursday.
- Gasoline futures climbed 27% this week.
- Equity futures are trading lower (S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.5%) with VIX just under 25.
NFPs are due later today with estimates for a pullback in hiring in February (55k v 130k).
- Unemployment expected to have held flat at 4.3%.
BYD announce faster charging Blade Battery as it seeks to revive market demand
- BYD has officially released its second-generation blade battery, that has new ‘record’ charging speeds.
- The LFP battery now takes five minutes to charge from 10% to 70% and nine minutes to charge from 10% to 97%.
- Stopping the charging at 97% is a deliberate energy-saving measure as the 3% is reserved for regenerative braking.
- The energy density of the battery has also increased by 5%, meaning superior range for models with the new battery.
- The Yangwang U7 with a 150kWh battery pack will have a pure electric range of 1,006km.
- BYD has faced a six-month slump in sales including sharp declines in February and hopes this will revive sales.
Definition of irony – US asking Ukraine for drone interceptors
- The US has asked the Ukraine if it can supply interceptor droned to protect Gulf states from Iranian drones
Interviews – IG TV Indaba interview: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86
- Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/OEvjlwDdmQ8?si=Ej5UcV91750ErDPk
- VOX video: The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed
- New commodities cycle: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a
| Dow Jones Industrials | -1.61% | at | 47,955 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.62% | at | 55,621 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +1.72% | at | 25,757 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.38% | at | 4,124 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.0 | at | 4.15 |
Currencies
US$1.1607/eur vs 1.1595/eur previous. Yen 157.61/$ vs 157.32/$. SAr 16.583/$ vs 16.496/$. $1.337/gbp vs $1.333/gbp. 0.704/aud vs 0.703/aud. CNY 6.898/$ vs 6.897/$
Dollar Index 98.97 vs 99.05 previous
Economics
China singled out REEE for the first time in a five-year plan committing to maintaining its lead in the industry.
- Beijing would also improve its export controls that led to shortages of the material overseas.
US – President Trump fires Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem following a bipartisan congressional hearing.
- During the hearing concerns were raised over the competitiveness of the tender process to the $220m ad campaign featuring Noem.
- The contract was reportedly offered just to four companies rather than through a standard competitive bidding.
- The US Department of Homeland Security said that limited competition was warranted due to an urgent threat from illegal immigration.
- One of the companies that won $143m was incorporated just a week before securing the contract.
- Noem argued that all was “done correctly…(and) legally”.
India – The US issued a temporary license for India to purchase Russian oil to alleviate pressure on global crude markets amid a war in the Middle East.
- The measure to be in effect until April 4.
Canada/Australia – Two nations signed an agreement on critical minerals deepening cooperation in addressing security of supply risks.
- Australia is joining a Canada-led G7 critical minerals production alliance.
UAE – Flights resume from Abu Dhabi
- UAE looks to freeze Iranian assets.
- Wealthy Dubai residents race back to UAE to avoid tax bills if they have stayed too long outside the emirate
UK – Government to pilot scheme whereby failed asylum seeker families to be paid up to £40000 to leave
- The proposed scheme offers £10,000.per person capped at four per family.
- We assume the payments will be tax free.
- As of March 2026, UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has stated that housing a family of three in asylum accommodation costs up to £158,000 per year. (BBC)
UAE – Iran has fired 196 ballistic missiles and 1,072 drones into the UAE
- Seems like a pretty major attack on the numbers of missiles and drones being fired.
- The UAE has intercepted 1,001 of the 1,072 drones and 181 ballistic missiles with 13 falling into the sea.
- The war has shattered any sense of security for residents living in the UAE
Qatar – Iran has fired at least 14 balistic missiles and 4 drones into Qatar
- The nation has been forced to close LNG gas facilities
Kuwait – Kuwait says it has intercepted 97 ballistic missiles and 283 drones
- The US embassy in Kuwait has suffered a direct strike by an Iranian drone.
Scenario analysis:
- Current Iranian regime (IRGC led by Clerics) surrenders – 1%
- Regime change:
- Iran military takes over from the Ayatollahs – 20%
- US pauses air strikes to enable negotiations
- Kurds overthrow the IRGC and form interim government – 20%
- Azeris and Baluchis join with Kurds in new alliance – 20%
- Revolution
- Young Iranians take up arms and depose IRGC
- Reza Pahlavi steps in as interim leader supported by the US
- Iran descends into tribal infighting
- Iran continues to fire missiles into neighbouring countries for weeks – 10%
- Neighbours ignore attacks – probably
- Neighbours return fire – possibly
- Neighbours send troops into Iran to stop missile attacks – 0%
- Iran destroys US defense systems (THAAD)
- US gives up attack – regime and IRG recovers .- 5%
Precious metals:
Gold US$5,111/oz vs US$5,157/oz previous
Gold ETFs 100.0moz vs 100.1moz previous
Platinum US$2,176/oz vs US$2,162/oz previous
Palladium US$1,669/oz vs US$1,671/oz previous
Silver US$84.4/oz vs US$83.8/oz previous
Silver ETFs 828.8moz vs 829.8moz previous
Rhodium US$11,450/oz vs US$11,450/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$12,991/t vs US$12,918/t previous
Aluminium US$3,338/t vs US$3,340/t previous
Nickel US$17,465/t vs US$17,255/t previous
Zinc US$3,270/t vs US$3,302/t previous
Lead US$1,954/t vs US$1,944/t previous
Tin US$50,445/t vs US$49,590/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$85.7/bbl vs US$83.9/bbl previous
Henry Hub Gas US$3.01/mmBtu vs US$2.99/mmBtu yesterday
- International energy prices moved to their highest levels in almost two years as the escalating Middle East conflict froze shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and severely disrupted global energy flows of oil and LNG.
- Henry Hub prices edged higher after the EIA reported a 132bcf w/w storage draw to 1,886bcf (-124bcf exp), with US inventories now 6% above last year’s level and 2% below the five-year average as LNG export vessel capacity rose 13bcf w/w to 148bcf.
- GeoPark announced a $107m strategic investment by Colden Investments, an affiliate of Grupo Gilinski, which will acquire 12.9m new shares at a price of $8.31/sh to become the largest shareholder of the Company with 20%.
- ShaMaran Petroleum and HKN Energy reported that an explosion occurred yesterday at one of the processing facilities in the Sarang field in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The production at Atrush has also been shut-in as a precaution.
Natural Gas €50.2/MWh vs €53.3/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $85.9/lb vs $85.9/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$101.7/t vs US$99.7/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$463.7/t vs US$463.8/t
HCC FOB Australia US$220.5/t vs US$220.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$136.0/t vs US$132.8/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$122,856/t vs US$122,872/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,107/t vs US$22,110/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,185/t vs US$2,125/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,063/mtu vs US$2,003/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$191/lb vs US$186/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vs US$5.7/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.4/kg vs US$28.4/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$259/t vs US$262/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,138/t vs US$1,138/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,045.0/kg vs US$3,045.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
EV & battery news
Company News:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -4.2% | -9.6% | Freeport-McMoRan | -5.0% | -8.4% |
| Rio Tinto | -3.6% | -5.2% | Vale | -4.0% | -10.9% |
| Glencore | 0.6% | -2.9% | Newmont Mining | -2.7% | -8.9% |
| Anglo American | 0.2% | -8.5% | Fortescue | -0.7% | -8.9% |
| Antofagasta | 1.4% | -8.3% | Teck Resources | -3.6% | -12.4% |
Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.90p, Mkt Cap £34m – Placings raise US$8.4m at ~1p/s
- Kavango Resources reports the raising of US$4.7m (£3.53m) in Zimbabwe and £2.8m in the UK at an approximately 1 pence per share.
- The company is issuing 629,991,138 new shares under the Victoria Falls Exchange subscription and the UK Subscription.
- Peter Wynter Bee, Chairman and interim ceo has also subscribed for 20,000,000 shares at 1p/s.
- The placements represent a 33% premium to the mid-market price at close on 5 March 2026.
- Cash: Kavango now holds ~US$ 13.5m in cash
- Proceeds will be used for:
- Hillside gold mine expansion,
- Nara Gold project option exercise and related potential litigation to ensure the owner meets his obligations relating to the option held by Kavango,
- General working capital in Zimbabwe.
- Kavango recently published a NI43-101 Technical report for its Karakubis project in the Kalahari Copper Belt (KCB) of Botswana at https://www.kavangoresources.com/ under Investors/Corporate Information/Reports.
- The RNS confirmed “Diamond drilling at the Karakubis prospect has already intersected copper mineralisation in all seven initial drill holes, supported by spot pxrf readings in excess of 1% copper and evidence of significant hydrothermal alteration”.
- The project area is situated in a favourable geological setting where “folding and D’Kar-Ngwako Pan contact zones … [are] … consistent with major deposits elsewhere in the Belt”.
- Kavango continues to evaluating strategic options in relation to its KCB mineral portfolio in Botswana.
*The SP Angel Analyst has visited the Hillside mine site and holds shares in Kavango
New Found Gold (NFG CN) C$3.4, Mkt Cap C$1.2bn – Loan facility agreed with Nebari for Queensway construction
- New Found Gold, who are developing the Queensway Gold Project in Newfoundland, have agreed a $75m loan facility.
- Nebari will provide $75m in two tranches at 9.25% fixed annual rate ‘subject to an original issue discount.’
- New Gold will also issue Nebari warrants worth $5.6m exercisable at a 25% premium for a 25 month period following closing.
- The funds will be used for the construction of Queensway.
- Queensway Project:
- 15 year LOM producing 70kozpa first four years, ramping up to 172kozpa from years 5-9.
- Initial CAPEX of $155m with growth CAPEX of $585m and sustaining CAPEX of $325m.
- LOM AISC guided at $1,256/oz.
- NPV5 of $743m at $2,500/oz for IRR of 56%.
- Management is targeting first production in late 2027.
New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 0.50p, Mkt Cap £15m – Tungsten discovered at Bank Prospect
- New Frontier Minerals report results from the Harts Range rare earth prospect in Australia.
- Australia:
- Harts Range: Drill results returned no meaningful rare earth intersections.
- NFM’s geological team are going to have to rethink how the heavy rare earths seen in rock chips assays came to pass and if there is a better location to test for the presence of niobium and heavy rare earths.
- Bank Propsect: First-pass scout drilling has returned meaningful grades of tungsten
- 4m grading 0.123% tungsten Oxide (WO₃)
- Inc. 1 m at 0.486% WO₃
- Cusp Prospect: shows rock-chip assays of 1.45%
- Inc. a series of assays from 1.41% – 0.594%
- Canada:
- Pomme Rare Earth Project (Quebec): work program to include the collection of diamond cores for metallurgical testing
- The Pomme rare earth project contains TREO grade ranging from around 0.20% to 0.79% over long drill intersections.
- 230m @ 0.20% TREO and 0.6% Nb2O5
- 20m @0.79% TREO and 0.03% Nb2O5
Conclusion: It is interesting that drilling at Harts Range has returned meaningful tungsten results but the geological team are going to rethink the orogenesis of the heavy rare earths rock chip samples and if there is potential for a rare earth resource in the license area.
*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals
NexGen Energy (NXE CN) C$17, Mkt Cap C$10.3bn – Environmental licence enables Rook I construction
- Uranium developer NexGen reports it has received Environmental Assessment approval from the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission.
- NexGen has issued a Licence to Prepare Site and Construct the Rook I Project.
- NexGen’s Rook I project is capable of producing c.20% of global uranium fuel supply.
- Construction is guided to start in summer 2026 and is due to take four years to complete.
- Rook I holds an NPV8 of C$3.5bn and post-tax IRR of 52% at $50/lb uranium.
Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 49.4p, Mkt Cap £317m – Interims highlight ongoing progress towards DFS
(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)
- Traxys MoU: Sovereign signed a MoU covering a potential 40,000t of graphite concentrate per annum in year 1-5 and potentially 80,000tpa thereafter.
- Monazite: the presence of a relatively small amount of monazite with elevated levels of Dysprosium, Terbium and Yttrium.
- DFS:
- Geotechnical work complete confirming acceptable subsurface conditions aligned with regional geology.
- Consistent stratigraphy and suitable subsurface conditions identified.
- Mining fleet engineered for large-scale dry mining operations following pilot land rehabilitation trials.
- No need for drilling, blasting, crushing or milling reducing capex and opex.
- Rehabilitation of land trials completed with exceptional first-year results showing 5x crop yields.
- DFS work in progress:
- Optimisation of plant design and configuration
- EIA and SIA workstreams
- Integration of IFC’s Performance Standards
- Coming updates:
- Mineral Resource Estimate
- Active discussions with US-based and “allied-nation” offtakers of rutile and graphite;
- Monazite mineralogical characterisation within the Kasiya orebody;
- Heavy rare earth concentrate recovery assessment within proposed flowsheet;
- Evaluation of potential scale of rare earth production as a by-product and associated economics;
- Environmental and social impact assessments including the integration of IFC’s Performance Standards; and
- Infrastructure and logistics planning.
- Rio Tinto
- Rio Tinto recently announced the restart of the $473 million Zulti South project at Richards Bay Minerals in South Africa extending the mine life to 2050.
- Zulti South had been suspended in 2020 due to local community unrest and is seen as critical for maintaining a stable supply of zircon, rutile, and ilmenite as Zulti North runs out.
- Rio Tinto are using China Harbour Engineering Company as their EPC contractor.
- Interims to end December
- Loss A$9m vs A$20m yoy
- Cash A$34m vs A$55m yoy
- Exploration and evaluation expenses A$16m vs A$16m yoy
- Share based payment benefit A$A$8m vs -A$2m yoy
Conclusion: News of Rio Tinto’s renewed involvement into Richards Bay is encouraging for Rio’s potential involvement going forward.
The identification of some Monazite containing critical REEs and the MoU with Traxys are also positive developments.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals. The analyst has visited the Kasiya mine site and highly recommends the Malawi coffee.
LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street
London, W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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