SHFE Silver stocks rise 70t this week to >350t
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Interims highlight progress towards mining lease and
Aura Energy* (AURA LN) – Interim report highlights progress at Titis and Häggån uranium projects
First Quantum (FM CN) – Cayeli mine sale to support Taca Taca development
Northern Star (NST AU) – Shares hit on another guidance downgrade
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM LN) – 2025 results as focus on growth
Silver ($83/oz) – SHFE silver stocks rise 70t this week to >350t
- Silver stocks are being driven by a combination of higher Chinese production, strategic stockpiling, and the falling spot premiums
- SHFE raised margin requirements and trading fees to dampen volatility reducing speculation and unwinding leverage.
- Large volume of imported silver ingots entered the market to meet high downstream demand pushing high spot premiums lower.
- Strict silver export restrictions starting 1 January 1, 2026, which trap supply within the country to satisfy domestic industrial demand for green technology, such as solar panels and electric vehicles.
- Market still seen as facing long-term structural shortages.
- Structural supply-demand deficit with investors competing with strong growth in the Solar industry for physical silver ingots.
Gold ($5,090/oz) continues to weather market volatility as miners sell off on margin concerns
- Gold prices are holding around $5,090/oz, having fallen slightly from $5,180/oz yesterday.
- However, the metal is serving as a form of hedge against wider market volatility, with the S&P down 1.5% yesterday.
- Markets are weak on rising oil prices and concerns over a sustained conflict in the Middle East.
- The VanEck Gold Miners index fell 2% yesterday and is now down 4.5% over the past month.
- Funds are taking profits in gold miners over concerns higher fuel costs may compress margins.
- Treasury yields are also rising again on renewed inflation concerns, reducing the appeal of risk assets.
Copper ($12,888/t) follows wider metals complex lower as risk-off sentiment increases
- Copper prices are down 1% this morning and continue to hold below the $13,000/t level on the LME.
- Base metals are down across the board, with aluminium, nickel, tin and zinc all falling >1%.
- Concerns are rising that an extended conflict in the Middle East may impact industrial and manufacturing demand, weighing on metals prices.
- A stronger dollar is also hitting metals prices, alongside increased borrowing costs.
Electric Vehicle sales to rise as oil prices climb
- The closure of the Straits of Hormuz couldn’t happen at a better time for China’s EV manufacturers.
- China will be contemplating further incentives to help restore crumbling EV sales
- China is also keen to further reduce its dependency and economic sensitivity to imported oil.
Aluminium premiums for Japan rise to US$350/t rising for Q2 vs $195 in Q1
Nickel refining rates in Indonesia is threatened by the lack of sulphur needed in the process.
Interviews – IG TV Indaba interview: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86
- Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/OEvjlwDdmQ8?si=Ej5UcV91750ErDPk
- VOX video: The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed
- New commodities cycle: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a
| Dow Jones Industrials | -1.56% | at | 46,678 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.16% | at | 53,820 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.91% | at | 25,483 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.82% | at | 4,095 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.2 | at | 4.27 |
Economics
US – US Administration launching two trade investigations against 16 major trade partners into excess industrial capacity and forced labour.
US trade deficit felt $18.4bn to US$54.5bn in January
- Goods Deficit fell by $17.5bn to $81.8bn.
- Services surplus expanded $1.0bn to $27.3bn.
- Increased sales of non-monetary gold, other precious metals, computers, and civilian aircraft pushed exports higher.
- Imports fell due to lower pharmaceutical and vehicle sales
- The US trade deficit grew with Vietnam to $19.0bn and Taiwan $17.3 bn but shrank with the EU to $6.1bn.
Iran attacks tanker in reaction to IEA oil stock release
- International Energy Agency agreed to release of 400mbbls from 1.2bn bbl reserves
- The IEA released 128mbbls during Covid in Feb 2022.
- Tankers transport ~20mbpd through the Srait of Hormuz
- Vessel traffic will only return when full insurance is reinstated, which will only come when Iran agrees to a peace deal
Currencies
US$1.1434/eur vs 1.1555/eur previous. Yen 159.48/$ vs 158.72/$. SAr 16.929/$ vs 16.521/$. $1.326/gbp vs $1.339/gbp. 0.702/aud vs 0.714/aud. CNY 6.902/$ vs 6.873/$.
Dollar Index 100.23 vs 99.33 previous.
Economics
Precious metals:
Gold US$5,073/oz vs US$5,181/oz previous
Gold ETFs 99.9moz vs 99.9moz previous
Platinum US$2,068/oz vs US$2,190/oz previous
Palladium US$1,598/oz vs US$1,666/oz previous
Silver US$82.0/oz vs US$86.8/oz previous
Silver ETFs 813.6moz vs 817.5moz previous
Rhodium US$11,500/oz vs US$11,500/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$12,819/t vs US$13,060/t previous
Aluminium US$3,464/t vs US$3,528/t previous
Nickel US$17,400/t vs US$17,750/t previous
Zinc US$3,272/t vs US$3,321/t previous
Lead US$1,925/t vs US$1,944/t previous
Tin US$47,685/t vs US$50,070/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$102.5/bbl vs US$96.4/bbl previous
- Brent crude oil prices settled above $100/bbl last night for the first time since August 2022 after Iran stepped up its retaliation campaign with attacks on multiple vessels across the Arabian Gulf and the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. Vessel traffic will only return when full insurance is reinstated.
- The IEA’s March Oil Market Report expects global oil supply to plunge by 8mb/d in March, more than halving February’s 2026 supply growth forecast to 1.1mb/d and slashing last month’s 3.8mb/d forecast inventory build subject to the conflict’s duration. OPEC’s March Oil Market Report makes no changes m/m to demand or non-OPEC supply forecasts.
- Henry Hub prices were stable after the EIA reported a 32bcf w/w storage draw to 1,848bcf, which was significantly below the seasonal average on the back of warmer temperatures across the country in the last week, with US inventories now 8% above last year’s level and 1% below the five-year average as LNG export vessel capacity fell 15bcf w/w to 133bcf.
- The Brazilian Government approved the immediate implementation of a temporary 12% levy on crude oil exports with a provisional duration of up to four months, which represents a windfall tax in response to the current high oil prices.
Natural Gas €51.7/MWh vs €52.2/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $85.4/lb vs $85.7/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$107.7/t vs US$107.5/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$464.0/t vs US$465.7/t
HCC FOB Australia US$222.5/t vs US$221.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$134.3/t vs US$134.3/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$115,192/t vs US$112,024/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,879/t vs US$21,968/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,125/t vs US$2,125/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,313/mtu vs US$2,313/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$218/lb vs US$212/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vs US$5.7/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.4/kg vs US$28.4/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$259/t vs US$260/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,137/t vs US$1,142/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,045.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
Company News:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -2.3% | -5.7% | Freeport-McMoRan | -3.8% | -5.5% |
| Rio Tinto | 3.1% | -0.5% | Vale | -1.8% | -2.3% |
| Glencore | -1.7% | 3.9% | Newmont Mining | -1.5% | -1.4% |
| Anglo American | -2.2% | -1.5% | Fortescue | 4.1% | 6.4% |
| Antofagasta | -2.7% | -3.5% | Teck Resources | -2.3% | -3.2% |
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 14.6p, Mkt Cap £117m – Interims highlight progress towards mining lease and
- Atlantic Lithium reports its interim results and progress on the Ewoyaa Lithium Project in Ghana.
- The Ghana Parliamentary Select Committee on Lands and Natural Resources is expected to provide its recommendation to Parliament on the Ewoyaa project.
- Ewoyaa is an important project which will provide direct and indirect jobs in the community for thousands of local people.
- The employment opportunity is expanded by the production of feldspar (clay) for the pottery industry from the lithium mine.
- The government is considering a revised and more ameanable royalty regime for the lithium industry.
- Optimisation: Management have continued to optimise the Ewoyaa project from a design and engineering perspective.
- Exploration:
- Rubino, Ivory Coast: Management are making good progress with new pegmatites identified bearing spodumene in rock float samples.
- Lithium-in-soil sampling also shows positive results at Rubino and Agboville.
- New Royalty regime submission to Ghana Parliament for spodumene prices:
- 5% to $1,500/t
- 7% – $1,500–$2,300/t
- 10% – $2,300–$3,200/t
- 12% over $3,200
- Takeover: Management recently reported that the directors had ceased discussions in relation to a potential takeover offer for the company.
- Interims to end-December 2025 v end-December 2024:
- Admin costs $0.17m vs 0.35m yoy.
- Consulting costs $0.13m vs $0.4m.
- Employee benefit costs $061m vs $0.78m
- Loss before tax $1.8ms vs $2.0m yoy
- Exchange differences on translation of foreign operations -$1.3m vs +$6.5m
- Total comprehensive income reports a loss of $3.2m vs a gain of $4.4m yoy.
- Cash: $5.4m vs $5.4m yoy.
- Total current assets $6.9m vs 6.2m yoy.
- Share placement facility: Atlantic raised £2m via a Share Placement Agreement using a facility with Long State Investments Ltd.
- A second placement under the Share Placement Agreement to raise a further £2m with 50% of the proceeds paid on the issue of shares, with the remainder (adjusted for the Swap Amount) paid post-period end.
- The facility allows for a further £20m to be raised through stock placement.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium
Aura Energy* (AURA LN) 5.51p, Mkt Cap £66m – Interim report highlights progress at Titis and Häggån uranium projects
- Aura Energy report progress on the Tiris uranium project in Mauritania and Häggån project in Sweden.
- Tiris Uranium Project
- Offtake: Aura has a long-term offtake agreement with a US utility, covering ~10% of projected Tiris output (2028-2031).
- Conditions precedent requiring the FID to be completed by end-2025 were not fulfilled with the parties mindful of the strategic value of the contract.
- A master spot sales agreement with an international trading group was also signed, enabling Aura to benefit from short-term pricing opportunities.
- Curzon offtake agreement: Aura signed a $10-20m finance agreement with Curzon covering up to 15% of the proposed production from Tiris.
- Mauritania has pledged full support for the Tiris project, “emphasizing that the Government stands ready to assist whenever required.”
- Basic Engineering study to be completed in Q2 2026.
- Test work remains on dewatering of the leached slurry before uranium extraction in the ion exchange plan. Options are:
- Centrifuge;
- Counter Current Decantation (“CCD”); and
- Polymers for agglomeration of fine and coarse particles.
- Transhipment: The Port of Tanger Authority in Morocco is reviewing Aura’s application for transshipment of class 7 materials.
- US DFC discussions: The DFC will require a full EPCM contract and detailed construction and operating plans.
- Häggån Polymetallic Project
- Sweden overturned their uranium mining ban effective 1 January 2026 classing uranium as a concessional mineral.
- This allows for exploration and extraction permits under existing mining laws.
- Aura has applied for an Exploitation Concession for Häggån
- The County Administrative Board has raised further queries relating to the project in December.
- The Mining Inspectorate did award an exploration permit in November other exploration to the west of, and adjacent to the Häggån nr 1 tenement.
- “Post-balance date, a valuation of C$50 million (A$55 million) was established for the Häggån project as MMCAP International Inc. SPC and other strategic investors agreed to provide funding of C$10 million for a 19.7% interest in the Häggån Project.
- “Aura has entered into a binding agreement to transfer 100% of the Häggån project to SIU Metals Corp (“SIU Metals”), an unlisted Canadian public company, in consideration for acquiring shares in SIU Metals. The agreement will result in SIU Metals being the 100% owner of the Häggån project.
- Aura will retain 78.7% ownership of SIU Metals, the strategic investors will own 19.7% after contributing C$10 million via a private placement, and other investors will own 0.6%. SIU Metals’ existing shareholders will retain 1%. SIU Metals intends to seek a stock market listing on the TSX Venture Exchange in connection with the transaction.
- Aura will rename SIU Metals and appoint new officers and directors on closure of the transaction, which is expected in June 2026. Funds committed by the strategic investors will be used for the advancement of the Häggån project, including permitting and resource expansion through continued exploration including on surrounding tenements.
- On 5th February 2026, the Swedish government issued a press release confirming that it intends to amend the Nuclear Activities Act so that uranium mining would not be considered a nuclear facility, which currently entails a municipal veto. It is anticipated that amendments to the Act will be put before Parliament around the end of Q1 2026, and new legislation enacted in July 2026. This policy change has been well-flagged and supports the government’s nuclear agenda.”
- Interims to end December 2025 vs end-December 2024 (A$):
- Employee benefits of $2.4 vs $0.7m yoy
- Corporate & admin costs: $3.3m vs $2.4m yoy
- Share based payment costs: $0.9m vs $.8m
- Impairment expenses for Tasiast South Gold Exp $0.0 vs $2.6m yoy
- Consolidated net loss: $6.6m vs $11.3m yoy
- Cash and cash equivalents $4.2m vs $11.7m yoy
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Aura Energy
First Quantum (FM CN) – C$34, Mkt cap C$19bn – Cayeli mine sale to support Taca Taca development
- First Quantum announces the sale of the Cayeli Mine in Turkey.
- Cengiz Holdings will acquire the asset for $340m in cash.
- Cayeli produces copper and zinc concentrate from underground operations and has a LOM to 2036.
- 1.3mtpa underground ore capacity
- 7.3mt at 1.51% Cu, 2.34% Zn in reserves
- Produced 11.5kt Cu and 2.6kt Zn over 2024 at AISC of $2.81/lb
- Generated $42m in EBITDA over 2024.
- Management notes the sale reflects their ‘disciplined approach to portfolio management as we focus on our core strategic priorities.’
- The Company recently filed a technical report for Taca Taca in Argentina which outlined:
- Post-tax NPV8 of $6bn and IRR of 19.3% at $4.5/lb and $3,000/oz Au
- Average annual copper production of 209kt over LOM
- Average annual gold production of 96kozpa over LOM
- Average LOM C1 costs of $1.26/lb on a by-product basis.
- Development CAPEX of $4.3bn for 40mtpa operation
- Expansion CAPEX of $1bn to $60mtpa
- 35 year LOM
- FID for Taca Taca was confirmed following a meeting between FQM management and Argentine officials in March.
- First Quantum will apply for RIGI status for the Project
Northern Star (NST AU) – A$22, Mkt cap A$31bn – Shares hit on another guidance downgrade
- Northern Star provides an operational update following ‘weaker performance in the last two months.’
- The Company notes it is facing difficulty maintaining throughput at the KCGM mill.
- The Australian gold major produced 220koz over January and February, below expectations.
- As a result, Northern Star expects FY26 production at 1.5moz, depending on KCGM mill throughput.
- Management notes it is focused on delivering the KCGM Mill Expansion Project in early FY27.
- Company notes mining operations continue in line, with open pit material moved at 80-90mtpa and underground at 3mtpa.
- Northern Star is undertaking an operational review at Jundee, which may provide additional personnel and equipment to higher margin operations.
- Shares down 19% in ASX trading.
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM LN) – 79p, Mkt cap £50bn – 2025 results as focus on growth
- Streaming and royalty company Wheaton reports annual results for 2025.
- The Company produced 653.5koz AuEq over the year, up 8.6%yoy.
- Company reports revenue up 80% to $2.3bn, with net earnings reported at $1.5bn.
- EPS reported at $3.2/share, up 178%.
- Average cash costs reported at $514/oz AuEq vs $438/oz in 2024.
- Wheaton held $1.2bn in cash on hand at the 31st December.
- Subsequent to the period, Wheaton announced a $4.3bn silver stream over the Antamina mine, funded via cash on hand, a $1.5bn term loan credit facility and a $0.9bn draw on the existing $2bn RCF.
- Over the year, Wheaton announced a $670m financing commitment for the Spring Valley Project in Nevada with Waterton Gold.
- Additionally, Wheaton agreed a $300m financing package with Hemlo for the Hemlo mine in Ontario.
- Wheaton reports reserves up 5% to 25moz AuEq.
LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street
London, W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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