Gold rebounds as Trump agrees terms with Iran and wider risk-on assets rebound
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Ongwe Minerals* (OGW CN) – Raising C$14.5m to fund Namibian gold exploration
Solstice Minerals (SLS AU) – Nanadie copper-gold mineralisation extended with drilling to north
Wiluna Mining (Private) – Planning A$400m ASX IPO despite weaker gold prices
Gold ($4,223/oz) rebounds as Trump agrees terms with Iran and wider risk-on assets rebound
- Gold jumped 3% from yesterday’s lows of $4,055/oz, climbing back over $4,200/oz.
- The move followed Trump’s cancellation of strikes on Iran and move to take Kharg Island.
- The wider precious metals complex rallied sharply yesterday, with silver up 5.4% and PGMs rebounding off recent lows.
- The move has been supported by a marginally weaker US dollar, with the index sliding below 100 but holding near two month highs.
- US Treasuries rallied sharply, with lower yields lifting the precious metals spectrum.
- The flagship gold miners index added 5.3% in yesterday’s trading, having fallen 35% from late February highs.
- Any long-term sign of peace in Iran is likely to provide supportive stability to gold prices.
- We expect this to support a resumption of the wave of M&A in the gold producer and developer space as margins remain healthy and management teams look to bolster their reserve base.
Copper – Expect to see statements on sulphuric acid supply disruption cutting output
- We are hearing reports of short-term disruption to SXEW copper production due to disruption to sulphur supplies on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Middle East supplies ~24% of global sulphur production and makes up almost 40% of seaborne sulphur supply.
- Zambia recently allowed the Chambishi Smelter, Mopani, and Alliswell to resume limited exports to the DRC following a recovery in local stocks.
- DRC miners have struggled to source new supplies with the smelter at Kamoa-Kakula becoming a major supplier for other local miners.
- While many miners were reported to have restocked sulphur supplies earlier in the year, some will have seen short-term disruption.
- Glencore, CMOC, and ERG are all reported to have cut their chemical consumption suggesting output cuts (Reuters).
Nickel – Indonesia – Sulphuric acid supply concerns as consumers struggle to source sulphur stocks and China remains closed for acid exports
- Indonesia has cut 10-20% nickel production and remains highly exposed to the seaborne sulphur as a large importer of raw sulphur and ready-made acid.
- Indonesia imported 5.34mt of sulphur in 2025 with ~75% sourced from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz.
- Expansion of local HPAL facilities for nickel processing drove sulphur imports 44% higher last year with miners overtaking farming as the primary driver of acid demand.
- Ready-made acid was also imported from China, South Korea, and Japan. This avenue is now closed.
- Most of the demand is from HPAL nickel plants run by Lygend (~30%), Huafei (~26%), Huayue (~18%), and QMB (~12%).
The Grasberg Mine factor
- Copper smelters typically produce by-product sulphuric acid with sulphur burning off as a gas on the smelting of copper concentrates.
- The fatal ‘mud rush’ which close the mine in September last year is exacerbating Indonesia’s domestic acid shortage with much lower smelter throughput.
- Grasberg’s full operational restart is now delayed until early 2028. The new Manyar smelter also suffered a fire last year setting back its scale up.
- With Grasberg operating at around 50% normal capacity this is limiting local acid supplies causing prices to rise.
- Freeport’s acid goes into the domestic farming sector due to its grade, range and corrosive issues.
- Local HPAL operators manufacturing their own acid from imported solid sulphur with new supplies being sources from Japan and Korea.
- We estimate Freeport’s Indonesian acid supply has been halved to ~1.35mtpa though.
China imports >45% of its sulphur with more than half of this coming from the Gulf states.
- The nation has banned all sulphuric acid exports
- Ironically, this has caused some smelters to reduce copper production as they need to sell acid to turn a profit at ultra-low Tc/Rcs
Chile – up to 200,000t of Chilean copper production remains at risk due to sulphuric acid supply disruption
- The disruption could cut ~20% of Chile’s SXEW copper output.
- Chile imports ~3mtpa of sulphuric acid to supplement 4.3mtpa from local smelters.
Rio Tinto and China Baowu successfully produce DRI and steel using a blend containing 1/3rd mid-grade Pilbara ore in a hydrogen shaft furnace at Zhanjiang plant
- Green steel via hydrogen DRI normally needs high-grade ore of around 67% Fe, because impurities block the standard electric arc furnace route.
- The trial shows mid-grade Pilbara ore (around 61 to 62% Fe) can work when paired with an ESF (electric smelting furnace), which separates the impurities out as slag.
- The DRI plus ESF route removes the blast furnace and coking coal entirely.
- Earlier company estimates for this route point to CO2 cuts of more than 80% for Pilbara ores.
- The trials sit under the Rio and Baowu climate partnership, and BHP ran similar trials at the same site in late 2024.
Iran – Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran pending deal. Iran denies there is a deal
- Trump says the US used 49 Tomahawk cruise missiles to hit IRGC sites in southern Iran with US Tomahawk cruise missiles also seen over Alborz Province.
- The US targeted areas near Karaj, Nazarabad, and a local IRGC base in Pishva County.
- Iran claims they launched 12 ballistic missiles at the US Muwaffaq Al Salti Air Base in Jordan where F-35, F-15, and F-16 fighter jets are stationed.
- The IRGC claims to have destroyed a large number of fighter jets.
- Jordan says it intercepted 20 ballistic missiles launched from Iran toward the Al-Azraq base with interceptions also reported near Muwaffaq Al Salti Air Base.
- Six explosions were reported over Amman.
Conclusion: The IRGC is yet ready to negotiate. Regime change may be the only way to settle this conflict.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +1.86% | at | 50,849 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +2.81% | at | 66,020 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +1.52% | at | 24,617 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +1.12% | at | 4,032 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +0.6 | at | 4.47 |
Currencies
US$1.1565/eur vs 1.1554/eur previous. Yen 160.35/$ vs 160.51/$. SAr 16.337/$ vs 16.521/$. $1.340/gbp vs $1.339/gbp. 0.703/aud vs 0.701/aud. CNY 6.764/$ vs 6.776/$.
Dollar Index 99.82 vs 99.94 previous.
Economics
SpaceX raised $75bn marking the largest ever IPO.
- Nearly 4x oversubscribed (~$250bn) and priced at $135 the raise valued the Company at ~$1.8tn.
- Trading on Nasdaq to start later today (SPCX US).
- Shadow markets are pointing to an at least 35% increase on its debut.
Risk on sentiment picked up as President Trump said the US agreed a deal with Iran that would end hostilities and reopen the Strait.
- “We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran, and we’re going to be subject to finalization of documents, we should get done over the next few days,” Trump noted.
- Trump suggested Iran’s supreme leader was on board with a “great settlement”.
- VP Vance may attend a signing ceremony in Europe within days.
- No confirmation from Iran so far with the foreign ministry saying that the country has not yet reached a final decision on the agreement.
- Before announcing the agreement, Trump threatened to escalate military operations and take Kharg Island, major export terminal that handles 90% of Iran’s crude shipments.
- Brent down at $87 (-4%) and VIX off at 19 (-3%).
- US equities bounced strongly on the news with S&P/Nasdaq closing up 1.8%/2.5% on Thursday.
ECB – The central bank raised rates by 25bp, in line with expectations, citing high inflation pressures.
- The ECB is now the first major central bank to have hiked rates in response to the war in the Middle East.
- That marked the first since October 2023.
- President Christing Lagarde said that the energy shock is “broadening” through the economy.
- Markets are expecting further 1-2 hikes before year end.
- Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said that the ECB may hike again as soon as July should they “have to”.
UK – The economy contracted for the first time in eight months with GDP coming in at -0.1%mom in April.
- Services recorded a sharper than expected drop hit by higher energy prices and borrowing costs.
- GDP (%mom, Apr / Mar / Est): -0.1 / 0.3 / -0.1
- GDP (%qoq, Apr / Mar / Est): 0.7 / 0.6 / 0.7
- Services (%mom, Apr / Mar / Est): -0.2 / 0.3 / -0.1
- Services (%qoq, Apr / Mar / Est): 0.8 / 0.8 / 0.8
India – The budget on course to record a wider-than-expected deficit this year on rising import bill driven by higher energy costs.
- The deficit is set to widen by as much as 0.5pp to 4.8% GDP compared to the goal set in February.
- This is the target first miss since the pandemic.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,175/oz vs US$4,109/oz previous
Gold ETFs 97.6moz vs 97.8moz previous
Platinum US$1,714/oz vs US$1,683/oz previous
Palladium US$1,288/oz vs US$1,254/oz previous
Silver US$66.1/oz vs US$64.5/oz previous
Silver ETFs 787.5moz vs 788.0moz previous
Rhodium US$8,000/oz vs US$8,000/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,655/t vs US$13,441/t previous
Aluminium US$3,531/t vs US$3,484/t previous
Nickel US$17,760/t vs US$17,635/t previous
Zinc US$3,527/t vs US$3,451/t previous
Lead US$1,951/t vs US$1,965/t previous
Tin US$53,450/t vs US$51,890/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$88.7/bbl vs US$93.3/bbl previous
IG interview: Oil, LNG and helium – what the Middle East conflict means for energy markets (link)
- International energy prices slumped after President Trump cancelled planned US military strikes against Iran and said a US–Iran framework agreement was close, which improved sentiment towards a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged lower after the EIA reported a 108bcf w/w storage build to 2,686bcf, with US inventories are just below last year’s level and 6% above the five-year average as LNG export capacity rose 18bcf w/w to 129bcf on 34 LNG departures (+5 w/w).
- OPEC’s June oil market report forecasts global oil demand growth of 0.97mb/d in 2026 and 1.7mb/d in 2027, reflecting a further 0.2mb/d moved into next year from May’s estimates, with OPEC+ supply also falling 0.19mb/d from April.
Natural Gas €47.2/MWh vs €50.3/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $84.8/lb vs $84.9/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$101.4/t vs US$101.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$487.4/t vs US$487.2/t
HCC FOB Australia US$245.0/t vs US$246.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$149.0/t vs US$148.3/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$102,240/t vs US$102,419/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,730/t vs US$23,243/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,400/t vs US$2,400/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,765/mtu vs US$1,715/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$228/lb vs US$228/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.9/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.2/kg vs US$27.2/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$233/t vs US$235/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vs US$2,809/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,161/t vs US$1,158/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,075.0/kg vs US$4,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$31.0/lb vs US$31.0/lb
EV & Battery news:
EVs set new weekly record in China as they capture 66.7% of new car sales
- BEVs (pure battery and PHEV) accounted for a record 66.7% of new car sales in mainland China during the first week of June, despite subsidy cuts.
- Mainland EV deliveries exceeded 152,000 units, up 8% mom.
- The milestone is just the latest sign that EV-makers are benefiting from the global fuel crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
- The shift in consumer preference is clear, with no Chinese petrol-car brand ranked among the country’s 10 bestselling vehicle models in May, a first for the market.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 3.5% | 0.2% | Freeport-McMoRan | 6.9% | -4.8% |
| Rio Tinto | 2.4% | -2.0% | Vale | 2.9% | -2.6% |
| Glencore | 0.9% | -1.9% | Newmont Mining | 5.2% | -9.9% |
| Anglo American | 3.5% | 2.1% | Fortescue | 3.1% | -3.9% |
| Antofagasta | 0.0% | -2.9% | Teck Resources | 6.3% | -5.2% |
Company news:
Ongwe Minerals* (OGW CN) C$1.6, Mkt Cap C$67m – Raising C$14.5m to fund Namibian gold exploration
- Ongwe Minerals announces it is raising C$10m via a private placement.
- The Company will issue 7.2m new shares at C$1.38/share via a life offering.
- There is an option to increase this with an additional 1.1m shares for additional gross proceeds of C$1.5m.
- Additionally, Ongwe is conducting a non-brokered placement of 2.2m new shares to raise c.C$3m.
- Funds will be used for the following workstreams:
- C$2.9m for a maiden 10,000m diamond drilling programme at Omatjete, targeting the Nguni and Manga prospects, due for completion 4Q26
- C$1.9m for initial surface exploration work at the K17 and Khorixas prospects, due for completion 4Q26
- C$2.6m on follow-up drilling at Nguni and Manga, targeting infill and step-out drilling, depending on results
- C$1.6m to refine priority drill targets with geophysical surveys at the Khorixas Project
Conclusion: The capital raise will support key exploration and maiden drilling programmes through to 2027. We are particularly excited by the recent Nguni surface anomaly discovery, which shows similar scale and higher soil grades to Wia Gold’s Kokoseb discovery, 55km along strike.
*SP Angel analyst(s) hold shares in Ongwe Minerals
Solstice Minerals (SLS AU) A$1.45, Mkt Cap A$249m – Nanadie copper-gold mineralisation extended with drilling to north
- Australian copper-gold explorer Solstice reports step-out RC drilling results from Nanadie, Western Australia.
- Assay results reported today are from Phase 2 drilling, targeting mineralisation to the north of the 2022 MRE.
- Current drilling is intended to test depth, strike and lateral extensions across the 1.2km mineralised footprint.
- First assays returned highlights of:
- NANRC030: 44m at 0.52% Cu and 0.14g/t Au from 93m within a broader 112m at 0.44% Cu and 0.14g/t Au from 5m
- NANRC029: 32m at 0.60% Cu, 0.18g/t Au from 247m
- NANRC028: 26m at 0.60% Cu, 0.13g/t Au from 36m and 14m at 0.89% Cu and 0.46g/t Au from 83m within a broader 128m at 0.32% Cu, 0.09g/t Au from 8m.
- Management notes mineralisation has now been confirmed over a strike length of 1.2km, remaining open to the north.
- 11 diamond tail holes have now been completed over 2,500m, with 18 RC holes drilled.
- First diamond drilling results are due over the coming month, with multiple zones of chalcopyrite reported.
Wiluna Mining (Private) – Planning A$400m ASX IPO despite weaker gold prices
- Australian gold miner Wiluna, which went into administration in 2022, is reportedly planning a listing later this year.
- The Company went under following several production shortfalls and ramp up issues through 2022.
- The Australian reports Wiluna is looking at raising A$200-300m to conduct a two-year drilling programme to solve previous operational issues.
- The AFR reports an implied EV of A$350m following a A$200m equity raise.
- The Wiluna Project holds 7moz in MRE in the Northern Goldfields region, and hosts a 2.1mtpa processing facility, concentrator and gas-fired power station.
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
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No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
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No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
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Analysts
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Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
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Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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