Copper falls 3.6% and heads for its first weekly loss since June as the White House stalls on tariffs
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – FY26 results highlight Ewoyaa Mining Lease ratification and recommended Huayou offer
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – BUY, Target 27p – Swedish FDI review update
KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – Tulu Kapi update
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – BUY, Target 89p – Drilling starts at Andacollo copper to test higher-grade zones in resource at the Andacollo gold, copper mine in Chile
Kendrick Resources (KEN LN) – Certified assays return 37.9m @ 3.05% LREO at Teufelskuppe, Namibia
Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Interims show Empire mine open-pit PFS update to revalue higher
Copper ($14,283/t) – Copper falls 3.6% and heads for its first weekly loss since June as the White House stalls on tariffs
- Copper fell 3.6% in London Thursday, after touching a record earlier.
- The rally rested on an expected US tariff on refined copper.
- Reuters reported the White House has still not decided on tariffs, weighing higher manufacturing costs against support for US mining.
- The administration is focused on affordability before November’s midterms shifting market sentiment towards a no or low tariff result.
- The Department of Commerce delivered its update to Trump by the 30 June deadline, so the delay sits with the White House.
- Cash to three-month spreads flipped to a $10.65/t contango, from $42/t backwardation the day before with the physical tightness supporting prices also gone.
- Hedge funds hold large longs, and copper now tracks the S&P 500 more closely than in decades.
- Grasberg remains at 50% output but recovering slowly with a target of 65% by the year end
Copper mine production continues to fall in Chile
- Los Pelambres produced 19,400t in July, down 23% yoy (Cochilco).
- Escondida fell 22% yoy to 89,400t.
- Codelco fell 4.8% yoy to 112,800t.
China ships its first sulphuric acid cargo since May
- China halted its own acid exports in May to keep its fertiliser makers supplied.
- The acid export ban appears to remain, with further shipments seen as exceptions.
- A vessel carrying 32,000t has now left Nanjing, due at Chile’s Mejillones by end-September (Kpler).
- The cargo is believed to be a swap between Tongling and a Chilean miner of acid for copper concentrate, both in short supply.
- China’s export ban is hurting miners in Chile, the DRC and Zambia where acid is imported for the leaching of copper from ore. Sulphuric acid supply has been short since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold ($4,350/oz) – Gold falls as producer prices lift rate rise bets
- Gold dropped nearly 2% Thursday.
- US producer prices rose 0.4% in August, in line with expectations.
- Traders now put the odds of a Fed rise next week at about 70%.
- US consumer prices land at 12:30 GMT today.
- The ECB raised rates for the second time this year and warned price pressures could prove lasting.
- Houthi forces seized Yemen’s port of Mocha and advanced along the Red Sea coast.
- Trump said he expects the Iran war to end after the US midterm elections.
Tin ($53,650/t) – US-backed refiner locks up an Australian tin supply
- Nathan Trotter will buy up to 100% of Huntore Australia’s tin concentrate from Queensland.
- The multiyear offtake is financed by STG Metals, a trader funded by the partners of Squarepoint Capital.
- Nathan Trotter, founded in 1789, won a $19m Defense Department grant in late 2024.
- That grant was to build domestic tin processing for defence, aviation and microelectronics.
- Tin goes into the solder connecting semiconductors, so it sits in defence supply chains.
- The deal is part of the US push to counter China’s hold on critical mineral processing.
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.60% | at | 52,064 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.93% | at | 64,011 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.59% | at | 24,808 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -1.18% | at | 3,888 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -2.4 | at | 4.94 |
Currencies
US$1.1608/eur vs 1.1638/eur previous. Yen 154.18/$ vs 153.51/$. SAr 16.172/$ vs 16.041/$. $1.352/gbp vs $1.355/gbp. 0.717/aud vs 0.721/aud. CNY 6.710/$ vs 6.706/$.
Dollar Index 99.06 vs 98.77 previous.
Economics
US – 10y Treasury yields are on course to hit 5%, the highest since 2023, as a selloff in sovereign debt continued following high producer prices data.
- 30y are at 5.3%, the highest since 2007.
- The Treasury reported strong demand for 10y debt in the last couple of auctions.
- Commentators are suggesting stronger demand may be driven by investors’ expectations to sell those securities back to the Treasury as part of a buyback programme.
- Growth in PPI accelerated in line with expectations in August with focus now on CPI numbers out later today (0.4%mom/3.4%yoy exp vs 0.1%mom/3.4%yoy July).
- Odds of a Fed hike next week now at ~70%.
- PPI Final Demand MoM (Aug / Jul / Est): 0.4% / 0.1% (prev 0.0%) / 0.4%
- PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Aug / Jul / Est): 0.2% / 0.3% (prev 0.2%) / 0.3%
- PPI Final Demand YoY (Aug / Jul / Est): 5.4% / 4.8% (prev 4.7%) / 5.3%
- PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Aug / Jul / Est): 4.6% / 4.3% (prev 4.2%) / 4.6%
US diesel hit record $6 per gallon as driven by higher oil prices as US/Iran war drags for over six months.
- New prices surpass the previous record high of $5.82 hit in 2022 on Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- Higher fuel prices come ahead of the autumn high season as agricultural equipment used to harvest and transport crops.
Oil – Brent prices nearly hit $110 on the news of further military escalation in the Middle East.
- Tehran backed Houthi rebels are reported to have seized the Yemeni Red Sea Port of Mocha on their advance to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
- The strait has become a vital route for Saudi oil exports since Iran cut shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Overnight unconfirmed reports emerged that Houthis may have hit Saudi’s East-West oil pipeline.
- Reports have not been confirmed yet with brent trading lower this morning.
UK – Growth came in higher than expected in July with the economy growing 1.6%yoy, marking the fastest annual growth since February 2025.
- The increase was driven by AI related businesses.
- The pound was little changed as economists question the sustainability of a pick up.
- Monthly GDP MoM (Jul / Jun / Est): 0.4% / 0.3% / 0.0%
- Monthly GDP 3M/3M (Jul / Jun / Est): 0.4% / 0.4% / 0.3%
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,350/oz vs US$4,414/oz previous
Gold ETFs 99.9moz vs 99.9moz previous
Platinum US$1,806/oz vs US$1,879/oz previous
Palladium US$1,302/oz vs US$1,353/oz previous
Silver US$64.0/oz vs US$67.4/oz previous
Silver ETFs 803.2moz vs 802.6moz previous
Rhodium US$9,825/oz vs US$9,675/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,283/t vs US$14,824/t previous
Aluminium US$3,285/t vs US$3,342/t previous
Nickel US$16,600/t vs US$16,875/t previous
Zinc US$3,897/t vs US$4,015/t previous
Lead US$1,900/t vs US$1,912/t previous
Tin US$53,650/t vs US$55,720/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$105.1/bbl vs US$100.7/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices moved higher following further disruption to global energy flows as the EIA estimated draws of 0.4mb to commercial US crude and 1.2mb to the SPR inventories, offset by product builds of 1.3mb to gasoline and 2.1mb to distillate stocks, with refinery utilisation down 0.2% w/w to 97.8% on 13.95mb/d of domestic supply.
- European energy prices remain at their highest levels since 2022 as EU natural gas storage levels increased by 1.9% w/w to 67.3% full (vs 83.7% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 762TWh and Germany at 55% full (vs 82.5% avg).
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged higher as the EIA reported a 40bcf w/w storage build to 3,254bcf, with US inventories 2% lower y/y and 5% above the five-year average, as LNG export capacity rose 10bcf to 137bcf (c.19.6bcf/d).
Natural Gas €79.5/MWh vs €79.2/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $90.1/lb vs $90.1/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$96.6/t vs US$98.5/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$472.6/t vs US$472.0/t
HCC FOB Australia US$278.0/t vs US$276.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$150.3/t vs US$153.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$42,380/t vs US$42,940/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$108,940/t vs US$108,848/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$20,491/t vs US$20,950/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,045/t vs US$2,115/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,055/t vs US$1,065/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,875/mtu vs US$1,875/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,925/mtu vs US$2,925/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$237/lb vs US$235/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vs US$390/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.6/kg vs US$24.8/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$186/t vs US$187/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,806/t vs US$2,806/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,170/t vs US$1,170/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$375.0/t vs US$375.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,255.0/kg vs US$4,255.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$440.0/kg vs US$440.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$33.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
China halts new battery factory projects on overcapacity fears
- China has suspended construction of new battery projects, pending a year-end capacity review (Caixin).
- Approved and under-construction projects go ahead, those in planning could be stopped.
- About 100 projects signed between January and July total ~2,608.5GWh a year.
- That exceeds the 1,755.6GWh China produced in all of 2025.
- Officials want to avoid repeating solar, where overbuilding led to price wars and heavy losses.
China unveils latest five-year NEV plan, targeting 70% of passenger-car sales by 2030 and large-scale autonomous driving
- China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, alongside 8 other government departments including the Ministry of Transport, has published a 2026-2030 development plan targeting NEVs at 70% of domestic new passenger-car sales and 40% of new commercial-vehicle sales by 2030, with autonomous driving deployed at scale.
- The plan aims to establish China among the world’s leading automotive powers by 2030, targeting highly automated driving on highways, urban expressways, and some city roads.
- Alongside broader adoption, the plan calls for tighter oversight of vehicle and battery manufacturing capacity, strict conditions on new standalone NEV manufacturers, and increased mergers, restructuring, and cross-regional consolidation to phase out inefficient capacity.
- It also targets stronger antitrust and pricing enforcement, curbing improper local subsidies, tax breaks, and land incentives used to attract investment.
- Technology targets include average electricity consumption of about 11.5kWh per 100km for battery-electric passenger cars and average fuel consumption of 3.3 litres per 100km for passenger cars by 2030, alongside gaps to close in automotive chips, operating systems, and industrial software.
- The plan also targets a 15% rise in labour productivity from 2025 levels and aims to place several Chinese automakers among the global top 10 by sales.
- On overseas expansion, the plan supports trade, investment, and technology partnerships, encourages shared overseas spare-parts warehouses across brands, and requires equal treatment of domestic and foreign companies in government procurement.
- Implementation measures include maintaining NEV tax incentives, continuing vehicle trade-in support, promoting rural NEV adoption, and backing city bus and battery replacement programmes.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -4.1% | -2.2% | Freeport-McMoRan | -6.6% | -3.7% |
| Rio Tinto | -3.5% | -4.3% | Vale | -1.0% | -2.9% |
| Glencore | 0.1% | -0.2% | Newmont Mining | -2.0% | 0.8% |
| Anglo American | 0.6% | -4.1% | Fortescue | -3.0% | -3.2% |
| Antofagasta | 0.5% | -3.2% | Teck Resources | -6.3% | -1.7% |
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 14.9p, Mkt Cap £119m – FY26 results highlight Ewoyaa Mining Lease ratification and recommended Huayou offer
- The Company released FY26 results highlighting development progress at the Ewoyaa Lithium Project in Ghana.
- The Parliament of Ghana ratified the Ewoyaa Mining Lease in March.
- Ratified lease adopts the new sliding scale royalty for lithium projects:
- 5.0% for SC prices up to $1,500/t
- 7.0% between $1,500-2,300/t
- 10.0% between $2,300-3,200/t
- 12.0% above $3,200/t
- The Board signed a Scheme Implementation Deed (SID) with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt in May for 100% of the Company.
- Offer terms: US$0.25486/s in cash valuing the Company at ~US$210m.
- The offer represents a 26.6% premium to the 6 May close and 21.8% to 30 day VWAP.
- The Board unanimously recommends the Scheme with Assore (~26.4%) to vote in favour absent a superior proposal.
- Separately, Elevra agreed to novate its Ewoyaa JV interest and offtake rights to Huayou.
- Huayou takes over the remaining US$65.9m of Elevra’s US$70m sole funding obligation.
- The novation is not conditional on the Scheme.
- Funding wise, the team secured up to £28m from Long State (£8m placement / £20m committed equity facility).
- The £8m placement was fully drawn with the £20m facility undrawn as of Jun/26.
- Ghanaian pension funds subscribed US$5.0m at 14.6p with milestone warrants taking the package to up to US$11m.
- In Côte d’Ivoire, soil sampling returned a >5km lithium anomaly at Agboville and spodumene pegmatite float at Rubino.
- Financials:
- Loss A$7.0m (FY25: -A$6.6m)
- Legal costs A$1.2m (FY25: A$0.5m)
- Employee costs A$2.9m (FY25: A$1.9m)
- CFO -A$5.6m (FY25: -A$4.9m)
- Exploration spend A$11.5m (FY25: A$19.4m) including A$3.5m funded by Elevra
- Equity raised A$18.3m (FY25: A$10.3m)
- Cash A$9.7m as of Jun/26 (FY25: A$5.4m)
- No bank debt
- The team expects additional funds to be required in the foreseeable future with Huayou to fund the Group should the Scheme proceed.
- Upcoming catalysts include:
- Scheme Booklet and Independent Expert’s Report (October 2026)
- Scheme meeting (November 2026)
- Scheme implementation (December 2026)
Conclusion: FY26 results highlight the Ewoyaa Mining Lease ratification and the recommended US$0.25486/s cash offer from Huayou that also takes over Elevra’s JV interest and funding obligations. Focus shifts to the Scheme meeting in November ahead of implementation in December 2026.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Atlantic Lithium
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 7.8p, Mkt Cap £5m – Swedish FDI review update
BUY – 27p
- The Company updates on the progress of the Bacchus Capital & Affiliates strategic investment status.
- The team reports that the Inspectorate of Strategic Products (ISP) in Sweden decided to initiate a formal review of the proposed £4.3m investment.
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) approval is required because the investment takes a non-EU holder above the shareholding threshold and iron ore prospecting and extraction is designated strategically important in Sweden.
- The ISP has three months to approve the investment and up to six months, in special cases.
- In light of the FID review, the Company reports that the financing long stop date (30 September 2026) will need to be changed.
- While Bacchus Capital remains supportive of the deal, there is no guarantee that such agreements will be extended.
- The Board cautions that additional financing must be secured within the next month to fund working capital; Bacchus remains engaged and is working with the company on an interim funding solution.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 24p, Mkt Cap £204m – Drilling starts at Andacollo copper to test higher-grade zones in resource at the Andacollo gold, copper mine in Chile
Initiation Note 21/07/26 – BUY – 89p CLICK HERE
- Galantas Gold report the start of a new 15,000m drilling campaign to test for extensions of newly identified zones of higher-grade gold within reach of the existing Andacollo mine.
- Infill drilling will also support planning for the restart of the mine in Q1 2027.
- The first drill rig will test higher grade gold mineralization in the Tres Perlas pit area and a recently discovered zone of sheeted quartz-sulphide veins.
- Drilling will also test for possible extension of enriched copper mineralisation as seen at the Carmen de Andacollo mine next door.
- Two more drill rigs will join the team with three drilling from three rigs expected by end-September.
- Galantas held C$109m in cash at end June.
Conclusion:
*SP Angel act as Broker to Galantas Gold
KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 0.68p, Mkt Cap £94m – Tulu Kapi update
Under review
- The Company provided an update on the security incident recorded at the Tulu Kapi Gold Project last week.
- All employees affected have now been accounted for, with no further fatalities or injuries beyond the one colleague previously reported.
- Development activities remain suspended pending completion of a full investigation and the establishment of security measures.
- Management has held consultations this week with community representatives and federal and Oromia government bodies, which the company describes as unanimously reiterating support for the project.
- Lycopodium, lead design and construction contractor for the process plant and on-site infrastructure, has its oversight team in-country and is reviewing and refining plans.
- The team reports renewed and increased indications of interest from Ethiopian institutions and high net worth family offices for redeemable preference shares at the subsidiary level that may be used as a potential source of funding should it be required.
Conclusion: Confirmation that no more casualties or injuries were recorded is welcome news. The team continues to work with all stakeholders to assess the security breach and identify security measures required for a potential restart of development works.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper
Kendrick Resources (KEN LN) 7.8p, Mkt Cap £33m – Certified assays return 37.9m @ 3.05% LREO at Teufelskuppe, Namibia
- Kendrick reports certified assays for four more diamond holes at its Teufelskuppe rare earth project in Namibia.
- The rare earths sit in flat-lying sheets of carbonatite, and these holes test three of them, TK3, TK4 and TK5.
- Certified assays:
- TKDD006: 37.9m @ 3.05% LREO from surface
- TKDD007: 31.58m @ 2.33% LREO from 1.5m, incl 5.5m @ 3.12%
- TKDD009: 16.4m @ 2.51% LREO from 27.8m, incl 3.67m @ 2.92%
- TKDD005: 8.42m @ 2.71% LREO from surface, incl 5.47m @ 3.00%
- Two of the four start at surface, which would suit open pit mining.
- The Company says grades stay consistent across the complex.
- Verification of its in-house resource estimate and the upgrade to JORC standard has begun.
- Drilling continues alongside that, following the development plan published on 6 May.
Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) 0.6p, Mkt Cap £4.8m – Interims show Empire mine open-pit PFS update to revalue higher
(Phoenix holds 80% of the Empire mining property in Idaho)
- Empire Mine open-pit PFS being updated by Hardrock Consulting.
- Proven & Probable mineral reserves of 10.1m grading 0.49% copper (49,677t), 104,000oz gold and 4,6moz silver based on assays from 485 drill holes etc…
- Copper sulphide potential beneath the open-pit:
- There is substantial potential for a significant copper sulphide resource below the current open pit and around the historic Empire mine underground workings.
- Reworking of the mineral reserve at current metal prices should add additional metal.
- Processing is a simple crush-grind-float-tank leach-cementation circuit to recover copper, silver and gold in a concentrate and a cement copper stream.
- Process plant to sit the company’s patented mining claims near the open-pit reducing capital and operating costs.
- The float circuit is being designed to recover copper, gold, and silver as a concentrate from the higher-grade sulphide vein material that exists below the open-pit.
- “Historically mined grades from the sulphide vein system below the open-pit were recorded as high as 8% copper, with smelter recoveries at the time recorded as averaging 3.64% copper, 1.64 g/t gold, and 54 g/t silver.“
- The 2024 PFS outlines:
- Pre-tax cumulative net free cash flow of >$230m at current metal prices
- Total cash costs of $2.44/lb ($5,379/t).
- Eight-year mine life
- 2024 PFS – Summary of Economic Results
| Project Evaluation Overview | After Tax | Before Tax |
| Cumulative Net Cashflow (millions) | $132.44 | $152.98 |
| NPV @ 5.0%; (millions) | $89.55 | $105.44 |
| NPV @ 7.5%; (millions) | $73.75 | $87.86 |
| NPV @ 10.0%; (millions) | $60.71 | $73.29 |
| Internal Rate of Return | 40.2% | 46.4% |
| Payback Period (years) | 1.66 | 1.41 |
| Payback Multiple | 2.92 | 3.21 |
| Benefit Cost Ratio | 7.61 | 8.87 |
| Initial Capital (millions) | $62.60 | $62.60 |
| Max. Neg. Cashflow (millions) | -$69.09 | -$69.09 |
Assumes copper price of $4.45/lb (9,810/t) copper, $2,325/oz for gold and $27.25/oz for silver.
- The model will show substantially higher returns on current metal prices.
- Interim financials show:
- Loss of $1.21m to end June vs loss of $0.76m for the six months to a year earlier
- Investment in Empire Mine and other mining assets rose to $45.84m vs $44.27m yoy
- Fundraising raised $2.6m net of expenses on 24 July 2026.
- Debt: All debt reported to be cleared. Short-term convertible loan note repaid in full on 4 August.
- Sale of non-core assets and cost cutting will see the company through to Q4.
- LoI signed with an US-based investor for further funding
Conclusion: A simple update of the PFS study will show substantial additional value. Drilling the higher-grade
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Phoenix Copper
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Analysts
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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