SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 22nd March 2023

Gold holds ground as market awaits Fed reaction to banking crisis

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below 

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Looking to higher production and lower costs in 2023 from initiatives to control power supply.

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Management update on DFS progress at Ewoyaa highlights push to accelerate mine into production

Galileo Resources (GLR LN) – Glenover update and 1.5km gold target delineation at Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – Operational update provides timing on Tulu Kapi funding closure and development works at Saudi Arabia assets

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – Rising ilmenite prices and depleting stocks in 2022 see strong demand in early 2023.

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) – Completion of the Lighthouse farm-in agreement.

Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) – Progress on permitting and ore-sorting tests at Coringa

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Publication of site-by-site water usage data gives local communities access to data not so easily seen before

World water day 2023 today

• And it is raining in London again to mark the occasion
• World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought/Date is on Saturday 17^th June

Gold holds lower as traders await today’s Fed rate decision and banking crisis moves backstage

• Gold prices weakened to hold around $1,940/oz following a volatile start to the week amid global banking chaos.
• UBS and Janet Yellen have calmed markets, with the Swiss goliath acquiring Credit Suisse and the Treasury Secretary offering the White House’s protection for bank deposits.
• Gold remains at elevated 12-month levels, however, as US yields sit below their peaks reached in late February.
• The Dollar index rally also petered out, further supporting gold prices.
• Focus now turns to today’s Fed rate decision, with an 85% market expectation of a 25bp hike as the Fed aims to continue its fight against inflation.

Iron ore slumps on the back of weak Chinese steel data

• Iron ore prices have extended losses to $123/t in Tianjin and $120/t in Singapore.
• The move follows price cuts from 10 major steelmakers in China, coinciding with sliding rebar spot prices.
• Beijing has been looking to crack down on elevated iron ore prices as it aims to shore up its construction sector following efforts to reduce leverage.

Chinese zinc smelters ramp up production as demand recovers

• Treatment charges for zinc concentrates in China are sliding as smelter utilisation ramps up.
• TCs had climbed 40% to 2-year highs as zinc concentrate supply flooded the market.
• Much of this concentrate oversupply was a result of the shutdown of European smelters amid the energy crisis.
• Falling TCs point to increased smelter demand for concentrate.
• China is entering its peak demand season, coinciding with its rebound from the extended Zero Covid crackdown.
• Shanghai zinc stocks are sliding, down 8% last week in their biggest draw since Christmas.

Ramping up lithium production pushes Argentine mining exports to 10-year highs

• 2022 saw Argentina’s mining exports touch £3.86bn last year, its highest level in a decade.
• Lithium exports climbed 234% yoy to c.20% of the country’s mining shipments, supported by soaring prices.
• February shipments hit $58m as demand for lithium products remains high as EV demand climbs.
• The Argentine Ministry of Mines is expecting $6bn in mining revenues for 2023 as Ganfeng and Livent ramp up production.

 Economics

US – Fed rate decision day with estimates for the FOMC to vote in favour of a 25bp increase to 4.75-5.00%.

• Policymakers will also be issuing their rate projections for the first time since December.
• Market expectations are for rates to peak ~5% in May-June before the first rate cut potentially in July.
• Separately, existing home sales jumped the most since mid-2020 in February on low house inventories and lower mortgage rates.
• 30y mortgage rate is currently ~6.6% down from >7% recorded in late 2022.
• House inventories are standing at 980k at the moment equivalent to ~2.6m using February sale rate (~380k) with realtors considering anything belove five months of supply as indicative of a tight market, Bloomberg writes.
• Existing Home Sales (%mom): 14.5 v -0.7 January and 5.0 est.

Japan – The government is planning to provide more than JPY2tn ($15.1bn) in inflation aid to ease the impact of high prices ahead of local elections next month.

• The amount will be covered by reserve funds already budgeted for the fiscal year ending this month, Bloomberg reports.
• The effort comes amid record high inflation and the central bank pressing on with ongoing monetary stimulus.
• Core inflation hit 4.2% in January, the highest level since 1981.

UK – Stronger than expected inflation reported ahead of the BOE meeting suggesting monetary authorities are unlikely to avoid another rate hike tomorrow.

• Expectations are currently for the BOE to hike rates 25bp hike to 4.25%.
• The pound is trading up 0.50% at 1.23 against the US$ this morning.
• CPI (%yoy): 10.4 v 10.1 January and 9.9% est.
• Core CPI (%yoy): 6.2 v 5.8 January and 5.7 est.

Currencies

US$1.0768/eur vs 1.0734/eur yesterday. Yen 132.46/$ vs 132.13/$. SAr 18.563/$ vs 18.511/$. $1.227/gbp vs $1.225/gbp. 0.669/aud vs 0.669/aud. CNY 6.890/$ vs 6.876/$.

Dollar Index 103.17 vs 103.36 yesterday.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,944/oz vs US$1,967/oz yesterday

Gold ETFs 92.6moz vs US$92.5moz yesterday

Platinum US$981/oz vs US$985/oz yesterday

Palladium US$1,395/oz vs US$1,411/oz yesterday

Silver US$22.42/oz vs US$22.41/oz yesterday

Rhodium US$8,400/oz vs US$8,850/oz yesterday

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 8,786/t vs US$8,756/t yesterday

Aluminium US$ 2,265/t vs US$2,282/t yesterday

Nickel US$ 22,790/t vs US$22,800/t yesterday

Zinc US$ 2,845/t vs US$2,892/t yesterday

Lead US$ 2,106/t vs US$2,131/t yesterday

Tin US$ 23,025/t vs US$22,985/t yesterday

Energy:           

Oil US$75.0/bbl vs US$73.0/bbl yesterday

• Crude oil prices found support from US government measures yesterday to protect bank depositors, with all eyes now on today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and its impact on the global economic environment.
• The API announced that US crude stocks rose by 3.3mb last week, versus expectations for a 1.5mb draw.
• European energy prices edged higher after French unions extended strike action at three liquefied natural gas terminals facilities out of four until 28^th March.

Natural Gas US$2.265/mmbtu vs US$2.252/mmbtu yesterday

Uranium UXC US$51.00/lb vs US$50.00/lb yesterday

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$123.4/t vs US$125.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$618.2/t vs US$623.9/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$134.5/t vs US$134.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$182.0/t vs US$170.2/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$340.0/t vs US$340.0/t         

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$34,180/t vs US$34,180/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$81,269/t vs US$80,354/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$35,192/t vs US$36,141/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$4,960/t vs US$4,990/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,330/t vs US$1,326/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$325/mtu vs US$327/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$790/t vs US$790/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 9.6/lb vs US$9.7/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 39.75/kg vs US$39.85/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$343/t vs US$344/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$93.0/t vs US$91.6/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$455.0/t vs US$455.0/t

Battery News

Company News

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 335p, Mkt Cap £473m – Looking to higher production and lower costs in 2023 from initiatives to control power supply.

• In its 2022 annual results released today, Atalaya Mining reports a reversal of the Q3 loss of €7.2m with a final quarter profit of €8.0m bringing the full year profit to €30.9m (2021 – €132.2m).
• EBITDA for the year of €55.3m (2021 €199.1m) follows “a ~€64 million increase in annual electricity costs” and the company says that “Net cash remains strong at €53.1 million after a period of significant investment” totaling €53.5m, including “€22.7 million for the 50 MW solar plant (FY2021: nil), €6.2 million in sustaining capex (FY2021: €5.9 million) and €14.1 million to increase the tailings dam”.
• The annual results reflect the production of 52,269t (49,773t payable) of contained copper in concentrate at an average cash cost of US$3.16/lb and all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) of US$2.18/lb (2021 56,097t (53,390t payable) of contained copper at a cash cost of US$2.18/lb and AISC of US$2.48/lb.
• Commenting specifically on the €64m rise in its electricity costs, Atalaya Mining says that in 2022 “electricity prices in Spain reached unprecedented levels as a result of the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the European and global energy markets. Severe spikes in natural gas prices in Europe pushed electricity prices in Spain to over €500/MWh in March 2022 and similar levels in late August and early September 2022”.
• “So far in 2023, the estimated realised market electricity price in Spain has averaged around €130/MWh, with volatility driven by the relative amount of electricity generated by wind” while the company’s initiative in securing a 10-year power purchase agreement covering “approximately 31% of its current electricity requirements at a fixed rate … [mean that] … electricity prices for the Company have averaged around €110/MWh so far in 2023”.
• In a further initiative to control power costs, the company says that its 50MW solar power plant at Riotinto, which is expected to provide “approximately 22% of its current electricity needs when fully operational” is expected to start providing power “in late 2023”.
• The company presents a brighter outlook for 2023 saying that “production guidance for 2023 is 53,000 to 55,000 tonnes of copper, which represents an increase over FY2022 production of 52,269 tonnes”.
• Atalaya Mining is also guiding towards lower costs in 2023 with cash costs expected to fall in the range of US$2.80-3.00/lb and AISC between US$3.00-3.20/lb (excluding a “one-off project to increase the capacity of the tailing dam”).
• Further capital expenditure in 2023 is expected to include:
  • “€12.6 million for the 50 MW solar plant, resulting in a total investment of ~€35 million;
  • €4 million for the E-LIX Phase I Plant, resulting in a total project investment of ~€20 million, out of which ~€15 million will be accounted for as loans to Lain Technologies;
  • €13 million for expansion of the existing Riotinto tailings facility”
• Commenting on the results and the outlook, CEO, Alberto Lavandeira, recognised that Atalaya’s team had navigated the challenges of “external headwinds in 2022” effectively and that “We enter 2023 with a strong balance sheet and positive outlook for the year ahead”.
• He expressed pride in the “decisive action we took to enhance the resilience of our operations, including securing a long-term fixed price power purchase agreement that we have benefitted from since the beginning of 2023. Contribution from our 50 MW solar plant will provide additional price stability later this year”.

Conclusion: Atalaya Mining is looking towards modest production increases and lower costs in 2023 as its initiatives to control its power costs deliver with the new power contract already in place and the contribution of the solar power plant expected to start later in the year.

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 26.93p, Mkt Cap £162m – Management update on DFS progress at Ewoyaa highlights push to accelerate mine into production

• Atlantic Lithium have published details of their ongoing work towards the delivery of a DFS on the Ewoyaa lithium project in Ghana.
• Optimisation of the process plant shows:
  • Sizing of crushed ore from 1mm to 10mm to improve cyclone performance,
  • Direct Shipping of fines by-product to add value,
• Stage 2 – Scoping Studies increase value
  • Modular DMS ‘Dense Media Separation’ plant to accelerate time to production and raise lithium levels in spodumene concentrate,
  • Beneficiation of natural occurring fines to SC6 at a later stage,
  • Feldspar by-product production to reduce waste and supply Ghana’s growing ceramics industry,
• PFS results previously published (based on the previous 30.1mt at 1.26% Li₂O resource):
  • Throughput 2.0Mtpa
  • Production ~255,000tpa SC6 over a
  • Mine life 12.5
  • Total revenues >US$4.84bn,
  • Post-tax NPV₈ of US$1.33bn,
  • IRR of 224% over 12.5 years.
  • Capex: US$125m
  • Payback <5 months.
• The revised Mineral Resource Estimate is now at 35.3 Mt @ 1.25% Li2O as announced on 1 February 2023

Conclusion:  Atlantic are working hard to bring the Ewoyaa lithium project to production. Optimisation of the process plant is brining forward the time line to production, the value of the products to be sold and the benefits to the nation of Ghana.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium

Galileo Resources (GLR LN) 1.12p, Mkt Cap £13m – Glenover update and 1.5km gold target delineation at Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

• Galileo has received approval from the South African authorities for the acquisition of Glenover Phospate Propritety Limited by Afrimat Ltd.
• The Glenover acquisition now requires approval from the South African DMRE.
• At Bulawayo, the Company reports that soil sampling over the northern section of the Bembeshi Trend have highlighted a 1.5km long gold anomaly.
• Individual soil sample highlights included values of 1,458ppb, 231ppb and 523ppb Au.
• The team believes the Bembeshi Trend is controlled by north/northwest trending shears.
• Following the initial wide-spaced sampling, Galileo has now submitted additional, more detailed soil samples for analysis.
• Ground magnetic surveying has provided seven priority targets at Galileo’s Queens West area, and the company has completed soil sampling, mapping and prospecting over five of these.
• The Queens West samples have returned encouraging pXRF results, with anomalisms for elements often accompanying gold including antimony and arsenic.
• Galileo will now look to extend sample programmes and defer its Q1 2023 drill programme before ‘testing wider range of targets.’

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 0.75p, Mkt Cap £30m – Operational update provides timing on Tulu Kapi funding closure and development works at Saudi Arabia assets

• The Company provided an update on the progress at its portfolio of precious and base metals projects in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia.
• In Ethiopia, the Company is in close discussions with government authorities including the Ministry of Mines and National Bank of Ethiopia among other ministries and agencies to address remaining issues.
• The team is confident that all points will be agreed in the coming weeks allowing the funding syndicate to seek all party formal approvals for the US$320m debt and equity facility.
• Once formal approval is complete, the Company will start capital drawdowns and project development for maiden production in mid-25.
• In Saudi Arabia, the Company together with its JV partners are progressing with DFS related work for the Jibal Qutman Gold Project and PFS related activities at the Hawiah Copper-Gold Project along with a regional exploration programme.
• At Jibal Qutman, the team is carrying a 13,000m drilling programme focused on upgrading and expanding the existing 0.7moz resource along with necessary metallurgical, geotechnical and hydrological drilling.
• DFS is expected to be completed towards year end.
• At Hawiah, the PFS is nearing completion with the plan to carry additional 56,000m of drilling over the next 18 months to establish reserves for both open pit and underground operations.
• Regionally, the Company mobilised exploration teams to study recently granted 14 new exploration licenses that are now seen as four project areas.

*SP Angel act as Nomad to KEFI Gold and Copper

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 446p, Mkt Cap £409m – Rising ilmenite prices and depleting stocks in 2022 see strong demand in early 2023.

• In his review Kenmare Resources’ 2022 results today, Manging Director, Michael Carvill, reported strong demand the company’s products during the year with a 42% increase in average prices to US$463/t.
• He said that reliable and secure supply was an important factor for customers and that “As high-grade feedstocks continue to deplete, Kenmare’s position as the largest merchant supplier of ilmenite provides an optimal position from which to capitalise on ilmenite’s growing market share through beneficiation”.
• During the first half of the year “pigment producers operated at close to full capacity and were constrained due to shortages of titanium feedstocks … [although] … Pigment demand decreased throughout the year as the global economic outlook weakened and China’s zero-COVID-19 policy muted industrial activity”.
• Looking forward, Mr. Carvill said that “We expect pigment stocks to have depleted in early 2023 with strong signs of increasing demand and the restarting of pigment lines … [and that] … Kenmare continued to see robust demand and in Q4 2022 achieved a ninth consecutive quarterly price increase for ilmenite”.

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) 0.22p, Mkt Cap £3.1m – Completion of the Lighthouse farm-in agreement.

• Rockfire Resources confirms the completion of its previously announced agreement with ASX-listed Sunshine Gold which gives Sunshine Gold the opportunity to earn up to a 75% interest in the Lighthouse tenement by spending A$2.2m over 3 years.
• The Lighthouse project area lies within the Plateau prospect in Queensland and adjoins Sunshine Gold’s existing Ravenswood West project.
• Rockfire Resources’ CEO, David Price, described Sunshine Gold’s involvement as “timely” saying that the Sunshine Gold “team continues to see new opportunities for exploration targets at Plateau and other prospects within the Lighthouse tenement”.
• In a release by Sunshine Gold to the ASX, has outlined key elements of the earn-in agreement which covers two tenements, EPM25617 and 26705.
  • “At the conclusion of the Farm-In, Rockfire has 60 days to elect to either:
  • contribute its 25% share of Expenditure; or
  • convert its 25% share to a 1.5% Net Smelter Royalty”
• Sunshine Gold, which will manage the exploration, has the right to “withdraw at any time during the earn-in period and retains no interest”.

Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) 30.25p, Mkt Cap £22.7m – Progress on permitting and ore-sorting tests at Coringa

• Serabi Gold has provided a progress report on its Coringa development project in Brazil where it expects to submit a key outstanding document, the Indigenous Impact Study (ECI) to the regulatory authorities imminently.
• While acknowledging that progress on the Study, which was initiated in early 2022 had been “slower than we were originally led to believe” CEO, Michael Hodgson, said that it “should allow the authorities to move forward with the final analysis culminating in approval of our application for an Installation Licence (“LI”), which in turn allows us to install a full process plant at Coringa in due course”.
• The company also describes progress with tests on ore-sorting technology using Coringa ore which “has produced excellent results with between 45% and 50% reduction in the mass needing to be processed”.
• Building on the testing, “it is therefore our intention to install a crushing and ore-sorting plant at Coringa as a Stage 1 of a plant installation and continue to truck the upgraded ore to Palito for processing”.
• Serabi Gold says that its “internal assessment, based on the ore-sorting results obtained to date, is that gold production from a combined Palito Complex and Coringa operation could reach approximately 60,000 ounces per annum without the need for significant expansion of the existing plant at Palito”.
• Results released in January showed production in 2022, largely from Palito and Sao Chico, of 31,819oz including 1,103oz from Coringa.
• Serabi Gold says that the installation of crushing and ore-sorting on site at Coringa allowing upgraded ore to be transported to the Palito plant “allows for a faster and cheaper ramp up of production at Coringa compared with the construction of the full process plant from the outset and reduces the initial capital cost required to build production from Coringa to an annual rate of 30,000 to 35,000 ounces”.
• “A full-scale process plant can be installed subsequently but its cost should also be supported by the cash flow generated from a larger production base”.
• Serabi Gold explains that Coringa is currently operating under trial-mining permits and that under Brazilian law these are automatically extended “if a formal renewal has not been issued at the date of their initial expiry”.
• “With the ECI now reaching completion and to be passed to FUNAI and in turn the other interested parties for their review, the Company expects the Installation Licence to be issued in the coming months. The Company anticipates that the issuing of the LI will be the trigger for being able to start the next stage of expanding the mining operations at Coringa”.

Conclusion: The imminent submission of the ECI should progress the permit approval process from the current trial mining at Coringa to approval of the Installation licence.  Ore sorting tests demonstrate the capacity to upgrade Coringa ore on site allowing the Palito plant to deliver 60,000ozpa, including 30-35,000oz pa from Coringa without significant plant expansion.

*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 5,263p, Mkt cap £89bn – Publication of site-by-site water usage data gives local communities access to data not so easily seen before

• Rio Tinto has admirably launched a new data platform showing site-by-site water usage data marking a new level of transparency in water useage.
• The new platform is available on the company website at: https://www.riotinto.com/en/sustainability/environment/water
• The platform highlights the good work Rio Tinto are doing to conserve water with catchment of rainfall and runoff as well as a five-year view on historical water useage.
• The Rio Tinto platform lists annual surface water usage across its global network of managed sites in 35 countries.
• The database details permitted surface water allocation volumes, the site’s annual allocation usage and the associated catchment runoff from average annual rainfall estimate for each site aong with five-year historic comparative data.
• Rio Tinto aims to avoid permanent impacts on water resources by carefully managing the quality and quantity of the water used and returned to the environment.

Conclusion:  We respect and applaud the publication of the data but one phrase comes to mind, ‘No good deed goes unpunished’. Let’s hope local communities and governments respect Rio Tinto’s worthy intentions and support the company in its efforts to become more corporately worthy.

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

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Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474

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