China tightens controls over Rare Earth exports
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY – Environmental action plan agreement paves the way to resume operations
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Drilling at Ewoyaa continues to show high-grade lithium and new extensions to the Spodumene resource
First Quantum Minerals (FQM CN) – Panama congress passes new Mining Act without clause which may negate Cobre Panama licence
Galileo Resources (GLR LN) – Wide zone of copper – bearing mineralisation intersected in Shinganda drilling
Scotgold Resources (SGZ LN) SUSPENDED – Potential administration appointment
Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW SJ) – Wage agreement at Kroondal
Taseko Mines (TKO LN) – $100m funding secured
Thor Energy (THR LN) – Alford East geophysical programme provides additional data for drill target definition
Vedanta (VEDL NSI) – Zambia hands KCM back to Vedanta following pledge to invest $1.2bn in increasing output and repaying outstanding debts
Rare Earths – China tightens controls over Rare Earth exports along with imports of other commodities (SCMP)
- China is taking even greater control of its raw material imports and exports as the CCP continues to tighten its grip on the way the economy works.
- President Xi’s strategy appears to be to continue to centralise control over all aspects of the economy.
- Today China’s Ministry of Commerce has asked all exporters of rare earth metals and oxide products to report transactions.
- Rare earths are targeted as the only item on the export reporting list.
- The government has also asked importers of crude oil, iron ore, copper ore concentrates and potash fertiliser to report orders and shipments.
- The new requirements which will last for two years look like a pre-curser to the further tightening of import and export controls from the requirements posted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2022
- Part of the strategy may also be to restrict uncontrolled growth in steel production and copper smelting
- The China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals and Chemicals Importers and Exporters has been assigned to collect, compile and analyse the data, which will be sent to the commerce ministry.
- At a State Council meeting on Friday, Premier Li Qiang said China should coordinate and ensure proper planning for rare earth exploration, development and research.
- China accounts for ~70% of rare earth mine supply globally and ~85% of world processing capacity in 2022.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.10% | at | 34,096 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.34% | at | 32,272 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -1.65% | at | 17,670 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.04% | at | 3,057 |
Economics
China – Exports pull back for the sixth consecutive month in a sign of struggling overseas demand amid higher interest rates.
- Weak overseas shipments add to the economy’s woes along with ongoing property slowdown and weaker than expected consumer sentiment.
- Imports (%mom): 3.0 v -6.3 September and -5.0 est.
- Exports (%mom): -6.4 v -6.2 September and -3.5 est.
- Reasons:
- Diversification of component manufacturing out of China into other Asian nations
- Reshoring of manufacturing back to the US to shorten supply chains
- Higher risk of major sanctions if China invades Taiwan
- Potential for China to be named as a currency manipulator by the US
- Weaponisation of critical raw materials may escalate further
- Disruption potential to shipping and other supply chains
China Allows Ant Group to Release Finance AI Products to Public.
- In a copycat move to rival ChatGPT.
US – ISM services fell to 51.8 in October vs 53.6 indicating 0.7% of annual GDP growth
- NY Fed global supply chain pressure index fell further -1.74 in October vs -0.70 in September
EU carbon credits down to $75/t vs around $80-90/t
- The carbon credit price is reflecting expectations for a reduction in European CO2 production due to a fall in economic activity.
- There may also be some improvement in energy efficiency but we suspect lower industrial demand is the main reason for the price fall.
Germany – Industrial production slump accelerated through September in line with weak PMIs released a while back.
- That was the fourth consecutive decline reflecting economic headwinds in the form of weak exports and tight monetary conditions.
- Industrial Production (%mom): -1.4 v -0.1 August (revised from -0.2) and -0.1 est.
- Industrial Production (%yoy): -3.7 v -1.9 August (revised from -2.0) and -2.7 est.
UK – Huw Pill, a voting MPC member, said that market expectations for a rate cut mid next year do not seem totally unreasonable as the central bank fights on to take inflation down to its 2% target.
- Nevertheless, Pill highlighted risks saying that having “the restrictive policy for too long, then the danger is… we triffer a recession, we trigger an excessive slowdown in the economy”.
- House prices posted the first monthly increase since March amid a drop in supply as property owners are hesitant to sell while demand remained weak oveall, Halifax numbers showed.
- Prices climbed 1.1%mom in October, but were still 3.2% down on the previous year.
- Separately, the report on UK grocery costs showed that inflation dropped to single digits for the first time in 16 months, FT writes.
- The annual pace of supermarket price increases slowed down to 9.7% for the four weeks to October 29, down from 11% in the previous month and below a high of 17.5% recorded in March.
Australia – The central bank hiked rates by 25bp to 4.35%, in line with estimates and marking the first hike in five months.
Indonesia – Q3 GDP rose 1.6% qoq vs 3.86% in Q2
- Q3 GDP rose 4.94% yoy vs 5.17% yoy in Q2
Currencies
US$1.0704/eur vs 1.0756/eur previous. Yen 150.32/$ vs 149.42/$. SAr 18.354/$ vs 18.169/$. $1.233/gbp vs $1.241/gbp. 0.644/aud vs 0.652/aud. CNY 7.285/$ vs 7.275/$.
Dollar Index 105.44 vs 104.94 previous.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,968/oz vs US$1,987/oz previous
Gold ETFs 87.2moz vs 87.2moz previous
Platinum US$903/oz vs US$934/oz previous
Palladium US$1,092/oz vs US$1,129/oz previous
Silver US$22.75/oz vs US$23/oz previous
Rhodium US$4,200/oz vs US$4,150/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$ 8,180/t vs US$8,210/t previous
Aluminium US$ 2,269/t vs US$2,269/t previous
Nickel US$ 18,000/t vs US$18,135/t previous
Zinc US$ 2,551/t vs US$2,559/t previous
Lead US$ 2,173/t vs US$2,189/t previous
Tin US$ 24,445/t vs US$24,440/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$83.8/bbl vs US$85.7/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices edged lower as China reported that imports rose m/m and exports fell for a sixth consecutive month, down 6.4% y/y, elevating concerns over demand from a key driver of global crude demand.
- US Henry Hub gas prices fell for a second day after last week’s cold spell was replaced with forecasts for mild weather for the rest of November and gas inventories ~100bcf above the seasonal average.
- Crescent Point will acquire Hammerhead for C$2.55bn enterprise value in a largely cash transaction that adds contiguous oil and liquids-rich Alberta Montney acreage to its existing portfolio. The acquisition is expected to add 56kboe/d of FY24 production and 309mboe of 2P reserves, which have an estimated NPV10 of $3.4bn.
Natural Gas €45.250/MWh vs €46.250/MWh previous
Uranium UXC US$74.00/lb vs US$73.00/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$123.2/t vs US$122.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$540.1/t vs US$540.0/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$111.5/t vs US$119.8/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$122.5/t vs US$124.5/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$318.0/t vs US$318.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,420/t vs US$33,420/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$70,970/t vs US$70,314/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$20,522/t vs US$21,101/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,940/t vs US$1,990/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,033/t vs US$1,038/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$300/mtu vs US$300/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$625/t vs US$625/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 6.2/lb vs US$6.2/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 26.25/kg vs US$26.25/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$312/t vs US$313/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$81.8/t vs US$82.4/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$335.0/t vs US$335.0/t
EV & Battery news
Volvo launches Energy Solutions business with focus on vehicle-to-grid capabilities
- The new business will offer energy storage and charging related technologies, with a focus on vehicle-to-grid (V2G).
- V2G looks to capitalise on the potential, offered by EVs, to the grid to help support the transition to a smarter, more sustainable, and more efficient energy grid.
- Volvo’s new flagship EX90 SUV will be the first Volvo car equipped with all the necessary hardware and, eventually, the software to enable bidirectional charging and direct energy storage from solar.
- Together with Göteborg Energi Nät AB, the company is also launching a V2G pilot programme that aims to test such V2G technologies on the local energy grid and in a home environment with real customers.
Polestar signs deal with SK On for battery supply
- The Swedish automaker has announced a deal with the South Korean battery maker for the supply of batteries for its forthcoming Polestar 5 model.
- SK On was chosen by Polestar due to their superior battery cell technology that offers high-performing chemistry, fast charging, efficient discharging, and superior driving range.
- It is a high-nickel battery cell modules comprise ultra-long 56cm cells with high energy density.
Company News
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 70p, Mkt Cap £75m – Environmental action plan agreement paves the way to resume operations
BUY
- The Company signed an agreement with the government on environmental action plan paving the way to restart agitation leaching and flotation operations at Gedabek.
- Agreed list of initiatives identified by the Micon environmental audit is provided in the announcement with the team expecting to implement the majority of them by the end of next year.
- None of the measures will involve significant capital investment.
- Mining operations will be recommenced immediately allowing to stack new ore onto heaps,
- Flotation plant will restart ~90d before the wall of the existing tailings dam is raised.
- Agitation leaching plant operations to resume once tailings dam wall is raised.
- High grade Gilar is expected to start supplying ore in H1/24, as previously targeted, helping to lift production next year.
- The Company reiterated FY23 guidance for 30-34koz GEOs as flotation and agitation leaching operations remain temporarily suspended.
Conclusion: The agreed protocol for environmental action plan sets the road to restart of operations at Gedabek with milling to resume in due course as the team is looking to raise the wall of existing tailings storage facility. With FY23 guidance intact and the team reiterating start of operations at Gilar in H1/24 we would expect milling to restart next year. Gilar development works are continuing at pace lending further confidence of timely restart of flotation and agitation leaching restart at Gedabek.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Anglo Asian Mining
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 20.65p, Mkt Cap £126m – Drilling at Ewoyaa continues to show high-grade lithium and new extensions to the Spodumene resource
(Ewoyaa Ownership: 40.5% Atlantic, 40.5% Piedmont, 6% MIIF Sovereign Wealth fund, 13% government of Ghana)
STRONG BUY
- Atlantic Lithium has announced a 43% (8,000m ) increase in the current drill program to a total of 26,500m to test extensions to the known Ewoyaa lithium resource in Ghana
- Some drilling will also infill existing known resource to give greater detail for the mine plan.
- The additional investment follows the grant of the Mining Lease for the Ewoyaa lithium project with the program due for completion in Q2 2024
- Some 16,164m of drill results/assays have been reported to date including high-grade infill and extensional drill intersections at Ewoyaa Main, Anokyi and Ewoyaa South-2
- Highlights from Reverse Circulation drilling at Ewoyaa Main, Anokyi and Ewoyaa South-2 (0.4% Li2O cut-off and a maximum 4m of internal dilution):
- 47.6m at 1.25% Li2O from 65.7m
- 53m at 0.93% Li2O from 30m
- 28.7m at 1.51% Li2O from 79.3m
- 28.2m at 1.23% Li2O from 81.2m
- 22.4m at 1.07% Li2O from 34m
- 14m at 1.46% Li2O from 33m
- The assays confirm the continuation of meaningful mineralisation outside the current mineral resource estimate
- High-grade and broad and shallow intersections include:
- Mineralisation outside the current MRE shows:
- 15.5m at 0.83% Li2O from 182.7m
- 13.2m at 0.74% Li2O from 217.5m
- These provide further potential for resource extension at depth
- DFS project economics:
- Throughput: ~2-2.7mtpa, Total mined ore 30.6mt
- Production ~300,000tpa of Spodumene concentrate (SC5.5 and SC6)
- NPV8 post-tax: US$1.5bn
- IRR: 105%
- Revenue US$550mpa and $6.6bn life-of-mine, Free cash flow: US$2.4bn life-of-mine, EBITDA: US$316mpa
- C1 Op costs US$377/t, AISC US$610/t
- Capex: US$185m, Payback: 19 months
- LOM: 12 years, LOM revenues increased to $6.6bn
- Assumption US$1,587/t with $1,200/dmt long term pricing for SC6% FOB Ghana Port
- Resource: 35.3Mt @ 1.25% Li2O Ewoyaa Mineral Resource Estimate1 (“MRE” or the “Resource”) in hole GDD0093.
- Cash and cash equivalents were A$10.565m at end September as a result of the expenditure
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium. Two mining analysts from SP Angel recently visited the Ewoyaa mine site in Ghana and drove onto Takoradi to check the quality of the road to port. Our analysts also visited the Ministry of Minerals Commission and MIIF, the Ghana Minerals Income Investment Fund.
First Quantum Minerals (FQM CN) C$17, Mkt cap C$12bn – Panama congress passes new Mining Act without clause which could have negated Cobre Panima licence
- The Panamanian Congress has just passed the new Mining Act without a critical clause which could have negated the Cobre Panima operating licence.
- President Laurentino Cortizo has publicly stated he wishes to hold a referendum to scrap First Quantum’s Cobre Panama contract.
- Thing is, the government of Panama put into law a new 20-year operating contract with Cobre Panama last month after a year severe disruption and negotiation.
- Cobre Panama is the largest foreign investment in Panama and the President’s campaign against the mine, means no company will ever dare to make a substantial mining or other investment again in the country.
- Zambia began the process of nationalising its mines in 1969 which was followed by a steady decline in output, profitability and well-paid mining jobs.
- In 1987 widespread rioting caused by high food prices, led to a collapse of the Kwacha, debt payments hit 95% of all forex earnings.
- The state starved the mines of the investment needed to properly run their operations while loading the provision of nearly all municipal services on to the miners.
- So when the mines collapsed, all other local services collapsed as well.
- This will not happen in Panama because no company, bank or finance institution will be stupid enough to invest in another mine in the region.
Galileo Resources (GLR LN) 1.2p, Mkt Cap £12.5m – Wide zone of copper – bearing mineralisation intersected in Shinganda drilling
- Galileo Resources reports that it has completed seven diamond-drill holes (890m) so far in its Phase 2 drilling campaign at the Shinganda copper project in Zambia
- The company says that its most recent hole, SHDD-017, which is situated “less than 1km along strike from the Shinganda copper-gold prospect drilled last year, has intercepted an extensive interval of alteration and brecciation with associated copper mineralisation within the Shinganda Fault Splay system”.
- The hole, “designed to test the IOCG … [Iron Oxide Copper Gold] … deposit potential related to the Shinganda Fault Splay system … passed through a rock package with a wide zone of hydrothermal alteration and brecciation, accompanied by variable amounts of chalcopyrite and pyrite mineralisation over a 264.5m interval from 65.5m downhole depth”.
- Although assay results from hole SHDD-017 are still awaited, today’s announcement shows photographs of drill core with mineralisation occurring as “clusters and disseminations associated with brecciation and quartz-carbonate veining … [which Galileo Resources says] … is confirmed by pXRF analysis”.
- Galileo Resources confirms that “follow-up holes are planned through the wide mineralised zone, as well as further drilling to test the iron alteration clusters and IP targets highlighted by a previous geophysical study”.
- Chairman and CEO, Colin Bird, said that “The nature of the host environment is not typical for traditional Copperbelt mineralisation which leads us to believe that this could be a totally different style of mineralisation”.
- Mr. Bird said that there “is good district evidence for IOCG-type mineralisation and we are targeting drilling with this model in mind. The next hole will be sited 100m away to test for mineral style repetition and continuity”.
- Zambia is known to host IOCG type mineralisation, including at Kitumba in the Mumbwa district where work by Intrepid Mines around 10 years ago defined a ‘Measured & Indicated’ mineral resource of approximately 25mt at an average grade of 2.3% copper and ~230ppm cobalt.
- In a separate announcement today, Galileo Resources announced a strengthening of its technical team with the appointment of the former Regional Head of African Exploration at Anglo American, Mike Holman, as a senior advisor and of Hunter Kennedy to assume “day to day responsibility for a number of projects in the southern African portfolio”.
Conclusion: We await the assay results from hole SHDD-017 and further indications of the IOCG potential of the Shinganda prospect as the drilling progresses.
Scotgold Resources (SGZ LN) SUSPENDED – Potential administration appointment
- The Company is considering the appointment of Administrators over the coming days after failing to secure a capital injection with interested parties.
Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW SJ) R2,425, Mkt Cap R69bn – Wage agreement at Kroondal
- The Company signed a five year wage agreement with labour unions (AMCU and NUM) at its Kroondal PGM operation in South Africa.
- The agreement envisages an inflation linked annual increase in wages with miners, artisans and officials getting a 6%pa hike.
- The agreement is similar to the terms and increases reached at the Group’s Rustenburg and Mariakana operations in 20222.
Taseko Mines (TKO LN) 113p, Mkt Cap £314m – $100m funding secured
- The Company secured $100m in additional funding for its Florence Copper Project in Arizona, US.
- Total includes $50m provided by Taurus Mining Royalty Fund and $50m in the form of senior secured debt from Societe Generale.
- The loan also contains a $25m uncommitted accordion feature that can be exercised by the Company taking total to $75m if needed, subject to additional approval at that time.
- The loan is to be repaid in one bullet payment in five years from the date of closing.
- Committed $100m come on top of the previously announced funding from Mitsui and Bank of America taking the total to $175m from four parties.
- Florence is a permitted $232m in situ leaching copper project expected to run at ~40ktpa with mineral reserves estimated at 320mt at 0.36% Cu and total resources at 405mt at 0.35%.
- The project is estimated to deliver $930m and 47% in post tax NPV8% and IRR assuming a $3.75/lb copper price (Mar/23 estimatest).
Thor Energy (THR LN) 1.6p, Mkt Cap £4.3m – Alford East geophysical programme provides additional data for drill target definition
- Thor Energy reports the completion of geophysical surveying using the ANT (Ambient Noise Tomography) technique at its Alford East copper/rare earth minerals prospect at the northern end of the Alford Copper Belt of the Yorke Peninsula in South Australia where the company is earning an interest of up to 80%.
- The survey defines “low-velocity, weathered ‘troughs’ that host the oxide copper-gold-REE mineralisation within the Alford Copper Belt” and, in conjunction with Thor Energy’s geological modelling will aid future drill targeting.
- Thor Energy explains that the “oxide copper-gold and REE mineralisation within the Alford Copper Belt is associated with rocks that are significantly less dense with lower seismic velocity than the surrounding fresh units” making the definition of these weathered troughs an important element in the exploration planning.
- Modelling of the ANT data “has revealed key features, such as regions with slower velocity within a high-velocity basement, inferring a 3D geometry of the interpreted variably weathered trough and a sheared metasedimentary basement, which is expected to host mineralisation”.
- In January 2021, Thor released an inferred mineral resource estimate totalling 125.6mt at an average grade of 0.14% copper and 0.018g/t gold for the project area based on historic drilling data and today’s announcement confirms that the company plans further drilling in Q1 2024.
- Managing Director, Nicole Galloway-Warland, said that the survey would help “support drill targeting of higher-grade copper and REE mineralisation along strike of our mineral resource estimate and in new zones of the Alford Copper Belt”.
Conclusion: Completion of the ANT survey has provided additional geological insights for the planned drilling at Alford East in Q1 2024.
Vedanta (VEDL NSI) – INR239, Mkt cap INR884bn – Zambia hands KCM back to Vedanta following pledge to invest $1.2bn in increasing output and repaying outstanding debts
- The Zambian government has reached an agreement to hand control of KCM back to Vedanta following pledge to invest $1.2bn in increasing output and repaying outstanding debts
- Zambia seized the KCM ‘Konkola Copper Mines’ assets in 2019 following revelations by Anil Agarwal, Vedanta’s ceo that the company made $500m a year out of KCM.
- Agarwal, speaking to the Jain International Trade Organisation in Bangalore in 2014 stated “Its been 9 years, and since then every year it is giving us a minimum of $500m…every year it has been continuously giving back.”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98yKosnwb-Y&t=2s
- Government tax receipts did not match the claims made In the video .
- Vedanta had bought the assets for just $25m rather than the $400m asking price.
- The government holds a 20% stake in KCM through ZCCM-IH
- You can be sure the Zambian government will watch Vedanta very closely to ensure it meets the terms of this agreement.
- Please call if you would like further colour on the situation.
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The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite | Asian Metal |
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