Base metals strengthen as optimism continues over China as Officials meet over policy
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Updated presentation highlights clear project development strategy
CleanTech Lithium (CTL LN) – PFS timing update
Fulcrum Metals (FMET LN) – Assay results from gold tailings projects in Ontario
Gem Resources (formerly URA Holdings) (GEMR LN) – Plant upgrade and preparatory mining at the Gravelotte emerald project, South Africa
Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Statement from Hainan Mining
Pan African Resources (PAF LN) – Northern Territory gold project acquisition as the Group diversifies its production base
Thor Energy (THR LN) – Drilling underway in Uravan Belt, Colorado
WIA Gold* (WIA AU) – A$30m raised to further Kokoseb Gold Project development
Base metals strengthen as optimism continues over China as Officials meet over policy
- Tin, zinc, copper and aluminium all strengthened last night.
- Copper has climbed to $9,745/t, pushing towards the $10,000/t mark.
- A weaker dollar has lifted the commodity space, with Harris strengthening in polls on the eve of the election.
- There has also been speculation over a pan to move around local government debt to boost borrowing and fuel growth.
- Alongside base metals, iron ore strengthened, in anticipation of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting guiding to more supportive measures for the downbeat property sector.
Gold ($2,738/oz) holds lower despite weak labour data as focus stays on Election
Peak $2,793/oz last Wednesday
- Gold prices continue to push higher as strong demand continues to drive demand higher
- Demand is coming from:
- Central banks including Saudi Arabia
- BRICS nations trying to move away from the US dollar
- Chinese consumer buying
- ETFs some new demand in the West
- Reasons:
- US Interest rate cuts
- US dollar weakness
- Central banks are buying gold in anticipation of US dollar weakness
- US Government borrowing
- Trump is forecast to borrow ~$7.75 trillion
- Kamala Harris is forecast to borrow ~$3.95 trillion
- More US dollars = weaker currency
- Global uncertainty – gold is seen as a more stable asset than many others
- UK borrowing rising
- Causing some uncertainty in bond markets
- Other nations raising borrowing levels
- Post Covid borrowing needs to be refinanced
- US Interest rate cuts
- Greater national borrowing = higher borrowing costs as nations compete for the available finance
- It’s a game of musical chairs:
- Governments are jostling to cut interest rates either just before or just after the US Federal Reserve
- Cutting rates risks collapsing the currency, but with the US dollar looking to go weaker it’s a game of Chicken which they can win!
- The prize is to cut interest rates and cut the cost of government debt while borrowing more
- But there are Wildcards:
- Japan interest rates going higher – will impact the Yen Carry Trade
- If China raised its currency it would raise inflation around the world
- But China is unlikely to do this as it needs to raise exports, is struggling with its property market and needs to sell allot of Electric Vehicles
- Trump is seen to be better for gold than Harris due to unpredictability, highlighted with increasing Tariffs. Some see Trump as spelling the end of the US dollar as we know it.
- But Trump is also inflationary due to the protectionist policies in line with his ‘Made in America’ pledge so the Fed may not cut rates so hard holding the US dollar to some degree
- Harris is more predictable and may help stabilise the US dollar
- But Harris is seen as less helpful to Equities
Zambian state to take larger interest in mining projects but won’t impact existing projects
- Zambia has followed up on previously announced plans to take up to 30% interests in ‘critical-minerals mines.’
- The President’s Special Assistant for Finance and Investment has stated that the initiative will be limited to permits, with 40 reserved for the government who plans to introduce investment partners. (Bloomberg)
- The Official stated that ‘no entity that currently operates in Zambia today, that currently has a license, will be subjected to any appropriation from the state.’
- The Official also stated that ‘there will be no demand for them to restructure the shareholding so that either the government or a Zambian company comes in and takes 30%.’
- Zambia is aiming to quadruple copper output by early-2030s.
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.61% | at | 41,795 | |
| Nikkei 225 | 1.11% | at | 38,475 | |
| HK Hang Seng | 2.14% | at | 21,007 | |
| Shanghai Composite | 2.32% | at | 3,387 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +2.8 | at | 4.313 |
Economics
US – Equity futures and the US$ are little changed as US voters head to polling stations in a highly contested leadership race.
- 10y yields are trading in a tight range as well hovering around a 4.3% mark.
- Factory Orders (%mom, Sep/Aug/Est): -0.5/-0.8(revised from -0.2)/-0.5
- Factory Orders ex Transport (%mom, Sep/Aug/Est): 0.1/-0.2(revised from -0.1)/NA
China – Services sector activity picked up in October following better numbers released for manufacturing last week reflecting better sentiment post stimulus measures announced in September.
- Caixin Services PMI (Oct/Sep/Est): 52.0/50.3/50.5
- Caixin Composite PMI (Oct/Sep/Est): 51.9/50.3/NA
France
- Industrial Production (%mom, Sep/Aug/Est): -0.9/1.1(revised from 1.4)/-0.6
- Industrial Production (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): -0.6/0.1(revised from 0.5)/-0.4
Currencies
US$1.0892/eur vs 1.0893/eur previous. Yen 152.24/$ vs 152.02/$. SAr 17.463/$ vs 17.536/$. $1.298/gbp vs $1.297/gbp. 0.662/aud vs 0.659/aud. CNY 7.109/$ vs 7.099/$.
Dollar Index 103.81 vs 103.76 previous
Precious metals:
Gold US$2,738/oz vs US$2,738/oz previous
Gold ETFs 83.9moz vs 84.0moz previous
Platinum US$994/oz vs US$1,001/oz previous
Palladium US$1,088/oz vs US$1,111/oz previous
Silver US$32.6/oz vs US$32.7/oz previous
Rhodium US$4,675/oz vs US$4,675/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$9,711/t vs US$9,688/t previous
Aluminium US$2,647/t vs US$2,627/t previous
Nickel US$16,195/t vs US$15,985/t previous
Zinc US$3,075/t vs US$3,073/t previous
Lead US$2,040/t vs US$2,050/t previous
Tin US$32,135/t vs US$32,200/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$75.2/bbl vs US$74.6/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices were steady ahead of today’s US elections and the Fed’s policy meeting on Thursday.
- The TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2024 presents a Trends scenario that estimates a temperature increase of between +2.6° and +2.7°C by 2100, which reflects the recent acceleration in the penetration of mature decarbonization technologies limited by infrastructure constraints (electricity grids) and geopolitical tensions.
- Saudi Aramco reported average 3Q24 production down 2.5% y/y to 12.7mboe/d generating $22bn free cash flow, which partially supports the quarterly $31bn cash dividend (~7% annualised yield).
- Vestas shares tumbled ~10% in early trading as management guided the FY24 profit margin would likely be at the lower end of its forecast range due to higher costs and warranty provisions.
Natural Gas €40.4/MWh vs €39.6/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $78.1/lb vs $78.4/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$104.1/t vs US$104.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$535.7/t vs US$537.2/t
HCC FOB Australia US$206.0/t vs US$206.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$144.3/t vs US$144.5/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$24,300/t vs US$24,300/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$59,924/t vs US$59,656/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,198/t vs US$10,001/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$760/t vs US$750/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$985/t vs US$985/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$340/mtu vs US$340/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$440/t vs US$440/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 4.6/lb vs US$4.6/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 24.55/kg vs US$24.55/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$314/t vs US$315/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,189/t vs US$1,190/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$62.6/t vs US$62.6/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$277.5/t vs US$277.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$2,875.0/kg vs US$2,875.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$450.0/kg vs US$450.0/kg
Battery News
Initial CPCA data shows China NEV sales at 1.4m for October
- Wholesale sales of passenger NEVs in China are estimated to be at 1.4m units in October, up 58% yoy and up 14% from September, said the latest China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) report.
- All provinces in China have implemented the car replacement subsidy policy and brought a new wave of growth momentum to the automative market, the CPCA said.
- In China, NEVs include battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and fuel cell vehicles.
- Exact sales numbers are expected to be announced later this month.
Tesla’s Chinese-made EV sales down 5.3% yoy in October
- Sales of Tesla’s China-made vehicles were down 5.3% yoy in October to 68,280 vehicles sold.
- Deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles fell 22.7% from the previous month.
- Chinese rival BYD was up 66.2% yoy, selling a record 500,526 vehicles in the month.
- Overseas shipments made up 6% of BYD’s total sales.
Chinese EV makers see European sales fall for third straight month
- Chinese EV makers saw sales fall for the third straight month, a sign that the new higher import tariffs introduced by the EU is hurting sales.
- Chinese brands held an 8.5% share of EV deliveries in Europe, down from 9.6% in the same period a year earlier.
- The biggest loser of the new tariffs has been MG, part of Chinese state-owned SAIC, which drew the highest EU tariffs and has seen sales slide 28%.
Company News
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 0.1% | -1.0% | Freeport-McMoRan | 1.5% | -1.0% |
| Rio Tinto | -0.3% | -1.4% | Vale | 1.7% | -2.1% |
| Glencore | 0.2% | 0.8% | Newmont Mining | 1.1% | -5.4% |
| Anglo American | 1.0% | -2.7% | Fortescue | -0.7% | -1.9% |
| Antofagasta | 0.1% | -1.3% | Teck Resources | 0.1% | -1.5% |
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 22p, Mkt cap £8.55m – Updated presentation highlights clear project development strategy
- Beowulf has updated their presentation: LINK
- The Presentation highlights Beowulf’s current dual-pronged strategy for high-grade iron ore concentrate and graphite anode material production.
- As regards the Kallak/Gállok iron ore project, recent metallurgical testwork has confirmed the potential for high-grade concentrate product suitable to the green steel transition.
- Beowulf expects to submit their Environmental Permit in 1H25, before completing a PFS.
- Work will then progress to a Feasibility Study in 2026 and Environmental Review completion in 2027.
- As regards the Graphite Anode Material Plant in Finland, Beowulf is guiding to the completion of their upgrade PFS in 1Q25, before completing their EIA in 2Q25.
- Whilst progression of the flagship assets is ongoing, the Company is aiming to target low-cost exploration at their Vardar base and precious metal exploration projects over the Tethyan Belt in Serbia.
- Additionally, Beowulf holds copper and nickel-cobalt targets in Sweden and Finland respectively.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining
CleanTech Lithium (CTL LN) 8.9p, Mkt Cap £15m – PFS timing update
- Laguna Verde PFS timing has been updated to 1Q25, from previously expected 4Q24.
- The delay is attributed to additional engineering work required to accommodate changes to location of DLE and carbonation plant facilities.
- Carbonation plant location has been selected in Copiapo with existing power and water supply options as well as a direct route to port.
- The study will also incorporate an option for onsite renewable power source as opposed to the grid connection model powering DLE facility at Laguna Verde.
- Downstream processing from the pilot plant is progressing well with lithium carbonate production expected in November.
Fulcrum Metals (FMET LN) 7.25p, Mkt Cap £4.5m – Assay results from gold tailings projects in Ontario
- Fulcrum Metals reports that auger drilling of gold tailings at the Teck-Hughes and Sylvanite gold tailings near Kirkland Lake, Ontario have established “accessible, surface-level gold”.
- At Teck-Hughes “Four new auger sites report average 0.65g/t gold, 1.3g/t silver and 13g/t tellurium … [and additional auger sampling is underway] … across an additional 16 sites … to further expand the data set and contribute towards a wider resource auger hole program”.
- At the Sylvanite site “Six new auger sites report average 0.58g/t gold, 1.1g/t silver and 13.9g/t tellurium” grades which Fulcrum Metals says, “could potentially offer the project multi-mineral and concentrate potential”.
- Commenting on the results CEO, Ryan Mee, said that “it’s important to remember that these deposits sit at surface and consist of millions of tonnes of ‘fine’ tailings that have already been mined and milled. This presents a significant advantage: there is no need for new discoveries, sub-surface infrastructure, or mine construction”.
- He highlighted that Fulcrum Metals is “confirming accessible, surface-level gold resources and demonstrating our capability to efficiently extract gold from them. Our workstreams are specifically designed to accomplish this in a cost and time-effective manner”.
Conclusion: Evaluation of gold tailings from former mining in the Kirkland Lake area of Ontario is demonstrating grades which might justify low-cost recovery in the context of current gold prices. We await further news as auger drill results are incorporated into a formal mineral resource estimate.
Gem Resources (formerly URA Holdings) (GEMR LN) 0.95p, Mkt Cap £2.9m – Plant upgrade and preparatory mining at the Gravelotte emerald project, South Africa
- Gem Resources has described the progress of its efforts to resume production at the Gravelotte emerald mine in South Africa.
- Over the last six months, Gem Resources has “processed approximately 5,500 tonnes of ore, primarily sourced from tailings and stockpiled materials … [ with initial results showing] … opportunities to enhance operational efficiency”.
- Within the next week, “a custom-made double deck vibrating washing and sizing screen” is being installed to replace the existing screening trommel and is expected to deliver significant increases to the “daily processing volume and reduce downtime”.
- The company confirms that “Preparations for the commencement of mining in the Cobra and Discovery open pits have been successful, with material cleared and access roads now completed in preparation for the start of mining activities at Level 8 in the Cobra Pit and Levels 1 and 6 in the Discovery Pit” which will deliver feed to the upgraded processing plant.
- Chairman, Ed Nealon, explained that the company was “hoping to conduct a small trial sale in late September, but due to circumstances beyond our control we are unable to do so. We are currently looking at options to conduct a trial sale in the near future while we continue to stockpile material”.
- In July, the company released findings of an independent desk-based review, prepared on its behalf by the consultants ACA Howe which described annual mine production ramping up from an initial 30,000tpa to 90,000tpa over the first 6 years of the projected 17 years mine life.
- ACA Howe’s study that capital investment of US$2.58m is expected to generate a pre-tax NPV10% of US$22.39m and IRR of 76% based on a “conservative average of USD5 per carat” selling price.
- Commenting on the July study we observed that it was still at a relatively early stage which used ‘Inferred’ resources plus a portion of a still-to-be delineated ‘Exploration Target’ and that further work would be required to develop a more closely defined resource prior to development.
- Pressing ahead with the plant upgrade and mining at the Cobra and Discovery pits implies a high level of confidence by Gem Resources in the resource potential of Gravelotte.
Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.3p, Mkt Cap £61m – Statement from Hainan Mining
Recommendation and valuation under review
(Hainan Mining holds a 51% stake in KMUK which holds the Bougouni Lithium Project in Mali with Kodal holding 49%. Mali will hold 35% of the jv company with KMUK)
(Kodal Minerals Plc now, effectively, hold 49% of 65% of the Bougouni project)
- Kodal Minerals provides an update on their Bougouni spodumene project in Mali.
- The Company responds to an announcement made this morning by Hainan Mining.
- Hainan states that the US$15m payment owed to the Mali Government by the KMUK JV and Future Minerals shall be borne by Kodal.
- Kodal states that it ‘was not consulted by Hainan on its announcement released today and that the position stated by Hainan is not consistent with the discussions and correspondence between the parties and the Mali Government.’
- We understand that Hainan was encouraged to put the announcement out by the Chinese Regulator.
- We understand that there is still a reasonable relationship between the two parties, and there has been no falling out between the two sides.
- It is our understanding that the US$4.3m price being paid by the Mali Government for the 25% interest is reflective of the cost of exploration, with a free carry already secured for the 10%.
- There is no offtake agreement approved as yet between KMUK and Hainan Mining and the Mali Government holds the right to approve any proposed offtake agreement.
- For further details on the updated ownership structure, we refer readers to our comment on Friday 1st November.
*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals.
Pan African Resources (PAF LN) 35p, Mkt Cap £669m – Northern Territory gold project acquisition as the Group diversifies its production base
- The Company acquires the remaining 92% of Tennant Consolidated Mining Group (TCMG) paying in shares and taking over gold project in the Tennant Creek Gold Fields located in the Northern Territory, Australia.
- The Company bought first 8% earlier in March this year.
- The Company is paying US$54.2m (100% basis) with US$50.8m comprising share consideration (~6% of the Company’s current issued share capital).
- MRE (June 2024) is estimated at 14.1mt 2.83g/t for 1.3moz with 1.04moz at 3.06g/t in the Measured and Indicated category.
- Reserves (June 2024) are estimated at 3.9mt 3.10g/t for 0.4moz based on the TCMG FS which include historical surface stockpiles, open pit and underground deposits.
- Project economics include ~5y LOM running 0.8mtpa and deliver 50kozpa at AISC $1,300/oz in the first three years of operation.
- There is a potential to extend the LOM with additional three years of production in the permitting process and through exploration.
- The project features a conventional CIL processing plant construction is more than 50% complete with project commissioning expected in June 2025 and first gold July 2025.
- Operations are expected to start off processing historical mine stockpiles followed by the feed from open pit and underground mines in the vicinity of the plant.
- The Nobles Complex pits, Eldorado (pit and underground), Juno, Chariot and Golden Forty underground mines will complete the modelled initial 5-year LOM based on Mineral Reserves alone.
- Additional three years are targeted from adjacent targets at Mauretania and White Devil.
- The project capex of ~US$36m is fully funded through two debt facilities including ~$7m from the northern Territory of Australian and $32m from Keyview Investment Management.
- The deal is expected to be completed December 2024.
- Separately, the group reported that exploration in Sudan was suspended on the back of the ongoing political unrest in the region.
Thor Energy (THR LN) 0.9p, Mkt Cap £4.4m – Drilling underway in Uravan Belt, Colorado
- Thor Energy reports that it has started its previously announced reverse-circulation drilling campaign at the wholly-owned Groundhog prospect in the Uravan mineral belt of southwestern Colorado.
- Infill drilling is expected to be concentrated around the intersection of 4.9m at an average grade of 0.12% U3O8 and 0.63% V2O5 from a depth of 82m in hole 23WBR-020 with “extension holes up to 300m to the north and east”.
- The company says that “Drilling is estimated to take approximately four weeks to complete, with downhole gamma results released to the market as they become available”.
- Thor Energy has previously confirmed that its priority is progressing exploration of its uranium and vanadium prospects in the former producing Uravan Belt in Cororado/Utah.
Conclusion: The US drilling programme is tangible evidence of Thor Energy’s commitment to pursue its US exploration agenda. We look forward to the drilling results with interest.
WIA Gold* (WIA AU) A$0.16, Mkt Cap A$180m – A$30m raised to further Kokoseb Gold Project development
- WIA Gold has raised A$30m in a placement at A$0.15/shr.
- The raise reflects a 3.2% discount before suspension.
- The Company will use the funds to progress the Kokoseb project towards an MRE, whilst also starting scoping study work as it move towards DFS.
- Additionally, funds will be used for drilling in Cote d’Ivoire, where drilling will follow up on previous intercepts.
- Management have subscribed for A$1.1m.
*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in WIA Gold
No.1 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q1 2024
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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