SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 5th August 2025

Copper holds steady as Codelco notes sliding stockpiles and China warns of ore shortage

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Aurum Resources (AUE AU) – Expanding resource at Boundiali

European Metals Holdings (EMH LN) – Preliminary Mining Permit for Cinovec South, Czechia

Fresnillo (FRES LN) – Higher gold and silver prices boost earnings

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) – Material binding offtake announcement due

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Infill drilling and start of metallurgical and mine planning studies

Royal Gold (RGLD US) – $1bn stream acquisition from First Quantum

Prospect Resources (PSC AU) – Latest drilling at Mumbezhi verifies exploration model and extends known mineralisation

Tungsten West (TUN LN) – Updated feasibility study describes technical improvements for Hemerdon

Copper ($9,670/t) holds steady as Codelco notes sliding stockpiles and China warns of ore shortage

• LME copper prices have continued to hold firm, after last week’s slump in COMEX futures.
• Trump burst the cross-Atlantic arbitrage trade with a U-turn on copper cathode tariffs.
• Focus is now returning to fundamentals, with Codelco warning of limited stockpiled ore at Teniente in Chile.
• A fatal accident at the mine has halted underground activities, with the incident triggered by seismic activity at a new underground section.
• Codelco stated they would resume operations as soon as possible.
• Elsewhere, China is warning of ore shortages following a major roll-out in smelting capacity.
• SMM expects China copper output of 1.17mt, as the country continues to pump up production.
• TCRC spot fees are reportedly turning higher, as smelters optimise capacity.
• Japan’s Mitsubishi Materials expects to reduce output at its Onahama smelter on copper concentrate limitations.
• JX Advanced Metals also slashed output on concentrate limitations. (Bloomberg)

China warns EV makers over price war, again

• Beijing has instructed major EV manufacturers to stop aggressive price-cutting and scale back output amid fears that overcapacity and deflation are undermining economic growth.
• President Xi Jinping warned on 23 July that involution threatens strategic sectors, including EVs, AI and computing power.
• Regulators summoned carmakers such as BYD and Great Wall last month to deliver the warning and press for supply-side cuts.
• A draft amendment to the 1998 pricing law would let authorities cap prices and punish “unfair pricing behaviour” to curb involution-style competition.
• BYD and Great Wall have already slashed the Seagull and Ora 3 sticker prices by about 20%, highlighting the intensity of the battle.
• Analysts say oversupply will push Chinese brands to export more, stoking tensions after the EU imposed tariffs of up to 45%, even as Chinese firms regained a 10% market share in June.

Rare Earth – Australia is weighing a price floor on critical minerals projects, including rare earths, Resources Minister Madeleine King said.

• “Pricing certainty means companies and investors are less exposed to volatile markets and prices, which are opaque and prone to manipulation,” King said.
• “Mechanisms for an appropriate price floor are under active consideration”.
• The news sent Australian REE developers/producers higher with Lynas trading 6% up, Iluka and Arafura rising close to 10%.
• The administration also offered A$135m in financial support to two smelters operated by Trafigura unit Nyrstar.
• Smelters in Port Pirie and Hobart produce antimony, bismuth, germanium and indium.

Palladium – Sibanye Stillwater asked the US administration to consider import tariffs on Russian palladium shipments.

• The Company is arguing Russian palladium imports are being sold below market prices “due to various factors, beginning primarily after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022”.
• “Obtaining relief from dumped and subsidised Russian imports will give Sibanye-Stillwater, its employees, and the entire U.S. PGM industry, an opportunity to compete on a more level playing field,” Sibanye-Stillwater’s Chief Executive Neal Froneman said.
• A final decision on the petition may come within 13 months.

Shipping – The government of Panama is challenging CK Hutchison Holdings rights to operate two ports at each end of the Panama Canal

• Panama’s comptroller general has filed two cases with the supreme court challenging the company’s right to operate the ports.
• The Panamanian President has said if court rules the renewal of the port operating rights is invalid, the government will reclaim their rights and likely convert the ports into public-private partnerships (Caixin).
• Given the government’s enforced closure of the Cobre Panama mine and treatment of First Quantum Minerals we are not hopeful for a good outcome in this.
• Shippers might need to prepare for some unreasonable behaviour by the Panama regime.
• The move is particularly interesting as CK Hutchison is deep into a $14.2bn negotiation to sell the their ports to a consortium of investors including BlackRock.
• Trump also declared during his inauguration, his intention to retake the Panama Canal from Chinese influence.
• While CK Hutchison is a HK company primarily owned by Li Ka-shing and his family and was not previously considered to be controlled by Mainland China.
• It is possible that Trump might choose to oust the Panamanian president by force, remember General Noriega, aka ‘pineapple face’

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

Economics

India – The US threatened to “substantially” increase tariffs on imports from India in response to the nation purchasing Russian oil.

• “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits,” Trump wrote on social media Monday.
• “They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine… because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.”
• Last week the US imposed a 25% tariff on shipments from India and promised more duties if the country continued to buy oil from Russia.

China – Services sector growth picked up in July partly compensating for a drop in manufacturing, private survey PMIs showed.

• Services PMI hit the highest level since May 2024 as new business orders climbed at the quickest rate in a year amid rising exports.
• Increased travel and a more stable trade environment drove the fastest rise in export orders since February.
• Private sector gauge contrasted with the official PMI that showed services activity weakened in July (50.0 from 50.1).
• Manufacturing PMIs released last week showed the sector slipped back into contraction in July.
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, released last week (Jul/Jun/Est): 49.5/50.4/50.2
• S&P Global Services PMI (Jul/Jun/Est) (Jul/Jun/Est): 52.6/50.6/50.4
• S&P Global Services PMI (Jul/Jun/Est): 50.8/51.3/NA

Eurozone – Final PMI confirmed a slight improvement in the pace of expansion in the Eurozone as weak numbers from France were more than compensated by growth elsewhere.

• Final Eurozone Composite PMI (Jul): 50.9
• Final Germany Composite PMI (Jul): 50.6
• Final France Composite PMI (Jul): 48.6
• Final Italy Composite PMI (Jul): 51.5
• Final Spain Composite PMI (Jul): 54.7

Iran – proposal to devalue currency by 10,000 times

• Iran’s parliament economic committee have approved the re-denomination of the currency.
• The move is proposed to simplify financial calculations, accounting and cut the costs of printing banknotes 10,000 rials will become 1 rial.
• One new rial will be worth 100 gherans.
• The 12-day war combined with sanctions has taken its toll on the rial which has devalued further this week.

Currencies

US$1.1555/eur vs 1.1558/eur previous. Yen 147.29/$ vs 147.85/$. SAr 17.966/$ vs 17.994/$. $1.328/gbp vs $1.327/gbp. 0.646/aud vs         0.648/aud. CNY 7.186/$ vs 7.177/$.

Dollar Index 98.82 vs 98.85 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,375/oz vs US$3,356/oz previous

Gold ETFs 91.8moz vs 91.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,332/oz vs US$1,320/oz previous

Palladium US$1,204/oz vs US$1,210/oz previous

Silver US$37.5/oz vs US$37.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$6,900/oz vs US$6,900/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,733/t vs US$9,670/t previous

Aluminium US$2,576/t vs US$2,576/t previous

Nickel US$15,050/t vs US$14,990/t previous

Zinc US$2,772/t vs US$2,731/t previous

Lead US$1,972/t vs US$1,970/t previous

Tin US$33,340/t vs US$33,400/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$68.3/bbl vs US$69.7/bbl previous

Natural Gas €34.1/MWh vs €33.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $71.3/lb vs $71.4/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$110.6/t vs US$109.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$473.8/t vs US$474.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$187.5/t vs US$187.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$117.3/t vs US$117.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$74,177/t vs US$73,990/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,561/t vs US$9,559/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$775/t vs US$775/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$453/mtu vs US$443/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.9/lb vs US$4.9/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.5/kg vs US$23.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$275/t vs US$275/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,092/t vs US$1,094/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Tesla July China-made EV sales fall 8.4 %

• Tesla’s China-made Model 3 and Model Y deliveries fell 8.4% yoy to 67,886 units in July.
• Sales were also 5.2% lower than in June as an intensifying domestic price war squeezed margins.
• BYD’s global sales were broadly flat at 341,300 vehicles for the month, highlighting the growing competition for a position in the EV market.
• The July slide follows Tesla’s steepest quarterly global sales drop in more than a decade, with weaker demand compounded by backlash to Elon Musk’s politics.
• The company is working on a cheaper Model Y and longer-range variants for China, but sources say launch timelines have slipped by several months.

Company news

Aurum Resources (AUE AU) A$0.48, Mkt Cap A$158m – Expanding resource at Boundiali

• Aurum reports an updated JORC MRE for their Boundiali Gold Project, Cote d’Ivoire.
• MRE:
  • Indicated: 18.5mt at 1gt/t Au for 0.6moz
  • Inferred: 54.2mt at 1g/t Au for 1.81moz
  • Total: 76.2mt at 1g/t Au for 2.41moz
• Increased indicated ounces of 362%, inferred by 25% and total by 52%.
• Aurum notes the higher-grade inferred component at BDT3 and BMT1, which can offer 720koz at 1.9g/t Au.
• Company notes gold mineralisation remains open along strike and at depth at Boundiali.
• A 100,000m drilling programme is ongoing at the project, with a second MRE update due later this year.
• PFS for Boundiali due end of CY25, supported by A$47m in liquidity.
• Aurum is also aiming to expand the resource at Napie, which currently holds 0.87moz, with a 30,000m drilling programme.

European Metals Holdings (EMH LN) 9.25p, Mkt Cap £18m – Preliminary Mining Permit for Cinovec South, Czechia

• The company reports that its Geomet subsidiary has been awarded an updated Preliminary Mining Permit for the southern part of its Cinovec lithium project in Czechia.
• The Permit is “valid for a period of 8 years until 2033 … [and] … secures the Company’s priority right to apply for and obtain a Final Mining Area and Final Mining Permit”.
• Today’s announcement confirms that European Metals “plans to consolidate all three Preliminary Mining Permits (Cinovec Northwest, Cinovec-East and Cinovec-South) into a single Preliminary Mining Permit”.
• Consolidation of the licences is described as “a strategic step to facilitate the development of the mine by streamlining the process of obtaining a single Final Mining Area and Final Mining Permit”.
• Executive Chairman, Keith Couglan, described the Preliminary Permit for Cinovec South as “a critical step in securing the Final Mining Permit over the entire Cinovec Deposit as we work towards the completion of the DFS”.
• The Cinovec deposit, described as “the largest hard rock lithium deposit in Europe and the fifth largest non-brine deposit in the world … [hosts] … a total Measured Mineral Resource of 53.3Mt at 0.48% Li2O, Indicated Mineral Resource of 360.2Mt at 0.44% Li2O and an Inferred Mineral Resource of 294.7Mt at 0.39% Li2O”.
• The project is “designated a Strategic Project by the European Union under the Critical Raw Materials Act”.
• A DFS is progressing towards completion in mid-2025 and an EIA application is expected by the end of 2025 with approval targeted by mid-2026.

Fresnillo (FRES LN) 1,571p, Mkt Cap £11.5bn – Higher gold and silver prices boost earnings

• Fresnillo, gold and silver producer, reports half year results.
• Silver production at 24.9moz, down 12%yoy, whilst gold production up 16% to 314koz.
• Revenues of $1.94bn, up 30%yoy.
• EBITDA up 103% at $1.1bn.
• EPS reported at $0.53.
• Cash reported at $1.8bn, up 41% from 31^st December and 164% from June 2024.
• Dividend of $0.21/share totals $153m for the period.
• CAPEX for 2025 revised down to $450m from $530m to reflect development delays at Saucito.
• Fresnillo impairs the Silverstream Agreement to $40m for a non-cash loss of $133m as Penoles buys back the contract.
• Updated 2025 guidance:
  • Silver: 47.5-54.5moz (from 49-56moz)
  • Gold: 550-590koz (from 525-580koz)
• 2026 guidance:
  • Silver: 45-51moz
  • Gold: 515-565koz
• 2027 guidance:
  • Silver: 45-51moz
  • Gold: 535-595koz

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) SUSPENDED – Material binding offtake announcement due

• ASX trading was suspended pending an announcement.
• The Company expects to report a material binding project funding and offtake agreement for the Kangakunde Rare Earth Project.
• Trading is expected to be resumed on or before Thursday 7 August.

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN)11.6p, Mkt Cap £33m – Infill drilling and start of metallurgical and mine planning studies

• Orosur reports infill drilling results from their high-grade, shallow lying Pepas deposit.
• Drilling reported today includes:
  • PEP047: 104m at 6.6g/t Au from surface
  • PEP048: 32m at 3.65g/t Au from surface
  • PEP049: 94m at 3.74g/t Au from surface
• Infill drilling is being conducted to support a maiden MRE for Pepas.
• Orosur also announces plans to start additional studies on metallurgy, mine planning and various logistics to support the progression of Pepas post MRE.
• Soil sampling is ongoing at El Cedro, with the road now repaired and geological crews returning to site this week.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Royal Gold (RGLD US) $1.56, Mkt Cap $10bn – $1bn stream acquisition from First Quantum

• Royal Gold has agreed a stream agreement with First Quantum over their Kansanshi copper-gold mine.
• Royal Gold will pay $1bn at the following terms:
  • 75oz of gold per 1mlb of copper until 425koz delivered
  • 55oz of gold per 1mlb of copper between 425-650koz delivered
  • 45oz of gold per 1mlb of copper thereafter
  • Royal Gold to pay 20% of spot gold price per ounce
  • First Quantum holds the option to accelerate stream deliveries.
• Royal gold expects to receive 12.5koz in 2025 and an average of 35-40koz over the next 10 years.
• Royal Gold will fund the acquisition through available cash resources and a draw on their RCF.
• Kansanshi reserves are expected to support a further 20 year LOM.
• Royal Gold held $825m and a $1bn RCF.

Prospect Resources (PSC AU) A$0.18, Mkt Cap A$126m – Latest drilling at Mumbezhi verifies exploration model and extends known mineralisation

• In an announcement to the ASX, Prospect Resources has described progress of its Phase 2 drilling programme at its Mumbezhi project in northwest Zambia.
• Three drilling rigs deployed at the Nyungu Central mineralised corridor have identified strike and up and down plunge extensions with highlighted intersections of:
  • 60.5m at an average grade of 0.53% copper from 296m depth in hole NCDD-010, including a 33m wide section at a grade of 0.71% copper from 310m depth as well as shallower intersections of 31m grading 0.42% copper from 31m depth and 7.5m at a grade of 0.69% copper from 105.5m depth: and
  • An 18m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.59% copper from 189m depth in hole NCDD-009 including a 6.3m wide interval grading 1.11% copper from 189m depth and “a further 3.4m @ 0.72% Cu from 203.6m”.
• Today’s announcement confirms that it has completed an airborne electromagnetic survey on “both the Nyungu ‘Corridor’ and Kabikupa-Kamafamba ‘Corridor’” with interpretation underway.
• “Licence-wide multi-element geochemical soil sampling programme is also advancing to plan, with 33% completed since mid-July”.
• Prospect Resources plans to start a programme of “regional aircore drilling programme will commence in early August, initially targeting cohesive geochemical anomalies at West Mwombezhi and Nyungu North”.
• Managing Director, Sam Hosack, said that the “drilling at Nyungu Central continues to deliver promising extensional results and is helping us to better define the structure of this significant copper deposit”.
• The mineral resource of the Nyungu and Kabikupa deposit currently hosts an ‘Indicated & Inferred’ resource of 107.2mt at an average grade of 0.5% copper at a 0.2% copper cut-off grade.
• The company explains that “the thickening of the mineralised sulphide zone in NCDD010 (adjacent and up plunge, located 60m southwest from recent hole NCRD0092), continues to support the Company’s current structural geology interpretation of the Nyungu Central deposit within the host “ore schist” horizons”.
• The announcement also explains that the results from hole NCDD-009 “targeted an interpreted IP anomaly … [and confirm] … Prospect’s belief that the surface geophysical IP chargeable anomalies defined late last year are excellent delineators of subsurface copper sulphide mineralisation at Mumbezhi and a predictable geophysical tool within the broader Nyungu ‘Corridor’”.

Tungsten West (TUN LN) – 8.5p, Mkt cap £16m – Updated feasibility study describes technical improvements for Hemerdon

• Following the release of financial highlights of its updated Feasibility Study for the resumption of tungsten production from the Hemerdon mine in southwest England in late May, Tungsten West has now released an executive summary of the underlying technical study by AMC Consultants.
• The company confirms that the economic conclusions, based on a price of US$400/mtu for the baseline ammonium paratungstate (APT) price and US$32,500/t tin, remain unchanged with a US$93m investment generating an after-tax NPV_7.5% of US$190m and IRR of 29.3% from the production of an average of 332,000 metric tonne units (mtu) of tungsten trioxide and 462t of tin annually over an 11-year period of mining followed by an additional 4 years processing of stockpiled material.
• Hemerdon’s open-pit ore ‘Proven & Probable’ reserves total ~71mt at an average grade of 0.15% tungsten trioxide and 0.03% tin, including ~37mt at an average grade of 0.17% tungsten trioxide and 0.03% tin classed as ‘Proven’.
• Mining over a total of 11 years is expected to produce ~3.5mtpa of ore which, after ore-sorting provides ~1.8mtpa of feed to the concentrator.
• Hemerdon hosts a ‘Measured and Indicated’ resource of ~164mt at an average grade of 0.14% tungsten trioxide and 0.03% tin plus a further ‘Inferred’ resource of 160mt at an average grade of 0.10% tungsten trioxide and 0.02% tin.
• Approximately a quarter of the ‘Measured and Indicated’ resource tonnage is classed as ‘Measured’ with ~44mt at an average grade of 0.16% tungsten trioxide and 0.03% tin.
• Around ⅔ of the ‘Measured and Indicated’ resource is hosted within granite (~111mt at an average grade of 0.16% tungsten trioxide and 0.03% tin) with a further 52mt at a lower grade averaging 0.10% tungsten trioxide and 0.03% tin contained within the surrounding Devonian age metasediments and metavolcanic tocks known locally as ‘killas’ with the balance ~600kt within granite stockpiles generated by previous mining.
• A part of the ‘Inferred’ resource comprises 3.2mt at an average grade of 0.18% tungsten trioxide and 0.02% tin hosted within Hemerdon’s mine waste facility (MWF) containing material generated “between October 2015 and October 2018 when Wolf Minerals were operating the mine”.
• Tungsten West considers that “there were numerous process inefficiencies during the Wolf Minerals operations that resulted in significant losses of WO₃ and Sn … [tungsten trioxide and tin] … to the Mining Waste Facility”.
• The company says that it “will be replacing the front-end of the process plant (i.e. the primary and secondary crushing circuits) given that it is no longer fit for purpose with the change in ore type, from predominantly soft, to transitional and hard granite ores”.
• Other process plant modifications include the replacement of “part of the Dense Media Separator (DMS) circuit with In-line Pressure jigs … [and the addition of] … an ultrafine recovery section”.
• The planned plant modifications are expected to deliver concentrates grading 50% tungsten trioxide and 55% tin

• We have previously described tungsten’s status as a ‘Critical Mineral’ in jurisdictions including the EU, UK, US, Australia, and Japan and we believe that resumption of production at one of the western world’s larger deposits should be welcomed by western-world consumers in a market dominated by China.

• CEO, Jeff Court, said that the completion of the “Feasibility Study marks a highly significant milestone for Tungsten West as we now formally commence our fundraising efforts”.
• Expressing appreciation for the efforts of the technical team “for their extremely hard work to complete this Study… [he said that it] … further emphasises the strong economics of the Project, fully supported by its strong technical, environmental, community and stakeholder facets”.
• He also said that “The Study also further underlines Hemerdon’s global critical minerals supply credentials”.

Conclusion: Completion of the technical work for the resumption of production at Tungsten West’s Hemerdon mine provides a platform for efforts to finance the US$93m project at a globally significant western world tungsten deposit.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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