SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 30th May 2023

Commodity prices little changed despite US debt ceiling discussions optimism

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – Drilling underway in eastern Finland

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) –RC Drilling Programme at Pitfield identifies large scale titanium and copper mineralisation

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – Q1/23 financials and MD&A

Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – Paterson South project farm-in agreement

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – Q1/23 financials and MD&A

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – CLICK FOR PDF – Board commits to an additional Salary Sacrifice Scheme

Thor Explorations (THX LN) – Segilola produces ~21koz of gold in Q1

Economics

US – Risk sentiment picks up on optimism over the potential resolution to the debt ceiling bill.

• President Joe Biden is reported to have been calling lawmakers personally to support the bill which is expected to be voted through by the House on Wednesday before going to the Senate.
• Estimates suggest the government may face a default as soon as June 5 if the bill is not passed.

China – Industrial profits continued to contract in the first four months of the year on the back of cooling demand and deepening factory gate deflation, Bloomberg reports.

• Profits were down 18.2%yoy in April alone, compared to -19.2%yoy in March.
• The data highlights the need for policy support and government stimulus.
• Industrial Profits (%yoy YTD): -20.6 v -21.4 March.

Spain – Inflation slowed more than expected in May, although, on absolute level the core measure continued to run at historically high >6%.

• CPI (%mom, EU Harmonised): -0.2 v 0.5 April and 0.2 est.
• CPI (%yoy, EU Harmonised): 2.9 v 3.8 April and 3.3 est.
• Core CPI (%yoy): 6.1 v 6.6 April and 6.4 est.

Turkey – President Erdogan secured his third term beating Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a run off round having won 52% of cast votes.

• The currency hit fresh lows on Monday past the 20 level extending its losses to >7% since the start of the year.
• The currency is down more than 90% over the past decade.
• Expectations are for the currency to continue sliding lower as the central bank sees its foreign exchange reserves falling and unless monetary authorities review their monetary policy.

Russia/Ukraine -Moscow and capital suburbs were attacked by about two dozen drones early this morning.

• Two people suffered minor injuries after a number of drones crashed into residential buildings in the city’s SW, Moscow mayor said.
• The attack followed a wave of air strikes on Kyiv over the last days including an attack during the daylight on Monday that saw people running for cover and hiding in bomb shelters and underground stations.
• The Ukrainian Air Force said it shot down 29 of 31 Iranian Shahed suicide drones today in the fourth air attack on Kyiv in three days and the 17^th of the month.

Currencies

US$1.0684/eur vs 1.0743/eur last week. Yen 140.32/$ vs 139.76/$. SAr 19.841/$ vs 19.679/$. $1.235/gbp vs $1.235/gbp. 0.653/aud vs 0.652/aud. CNY 7.094/$ vs 7.049/$.

Dollar Index 104.46 vs 104.11 yesterday.

Commodity News

Namibia – Paladin Energy saw its share price falling >20% today on the back of the country’s mines and energy minister Tom Alweendo comments for greater government control of mining projects.

• The minister argued for a free carried interest in al mining companies and petroleum production with comments seem to be inline with a March 1 statement that said high levels of foreign ownership in the Namibian mining industry was “untenable”.
• Paladin holds a 75% interest in the Langer Heinrich Uranium Project that is being restarted with first production expected early next year.
• Namibia is one of the biggest African producers of diamonds and the largest of uranium.

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,940/oz vs US$1,951/oz last week

   Gold ETFs 94.2moz vs US$94.0moz last week

Platinum US$1,032/oz vs US$1,035/oz last week

Palladium US$1,440/oz vs US$1,445/oz last week

Silver US$23.08/oz vs US$23.07/oz last week

Rhodium US$6,900/oz vs US$6,900/oz last week         

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 8,109/t vs US$8,081/t last week

Aluminium US$ 2,208/t vs US$2,258/t last week

Nickel US$ 21,150/t vs US$21,400/t last week

Zinc US$ 2,308/t vs US$2,318/t last week

Lead US$ 2,060/t vs US$2,088/t last week

Tin US$ 25,530/t vs US$24,875/t last week

Energy:           

Oil US$76.4/bbl vs US$76.5/bbl last week – Crude oil prices were broadly unchanged over the holiday weekend (UK & US) as the White House and leading Republicans reached a provisional deal over the US Government debt ceiling limit.

• The US Baker Hughes rig count was down 9 units to 711 rigs last week (-16 y/y), the lowest level for two years, with oil rigs down 5 to 570 and gas rigs down 4 to 137 units.
• UK media reported that the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, will announce a ban on granting of new oil and gas licences in the North Sea on a visit to Scotland next month. This will not stop drilling on any existing projects, with the exception of the Rosebank and Cambo schemes, which Labour has previously said it would block.

Natural Gas US$2.346/mmbtu vs US$2.297/mmbtu last week

Uranium UXC US$53.60/lb vs US$53.60/lb yesterday

Bulk:

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$100.6/t vs US$95.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$512.6/t vs US$516.2/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$98.0/t vs US$98.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$139.0/t vs US$140.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$228.0/t vs US$228.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$29,525/t vs US$30,180/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$70,766/t vs US$68,446/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$39,542/t vs US$39,791/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$4,010/t vs US$4,010/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,266/t vs US$1,273/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$323/t vs US$325/t

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$760/t vs US$760/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 7.3/lb vs US$7.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 32.15/kg vs US$32.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$314/t vs US$320/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$86.2/t vs US$86.3/kg

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$370.0/kg

Battery News

Company News

Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) 2.46p, Mkt cap £26.9m – Drilling underway in eastern Finland

• Bluejay Mining reports that it has started a programme of diamond drilling aimed at delineating an initial mineral resources estimate for the ‘E lode’ at the historic Hammaslahti copper zinc lead and precious metals project near Joensuu in eastern Finland.
• The initial programme, of 1,500-2,000m of diamond drilling aims to test the up plunge and up and down-dip extensions of the ‘E Lode’ which was discovered in 2014 located “approximately 200m east from underground infrastructure of the former Hammaslahti mine … [which] … was operated by the Finnish state mining company, Outokumpu Oy from 1971 to 1986”.
• Bluejay Mining explains that the former open-pit and underground mining activity “produced a total of 7 million tonnes grading 1.16% Cu, 1.55% Zn, 0.59 g/t Au and 5.2 g/t Ag” and that the ‘E Lode’ “is comparable in grade and style of mineralisation to the ore-lodes that were mined historically”.
• The company restates the results of its 2014 discovery hole (for the ‘E Lode’ mineralisation)  which intersected 8.65m at an average grade of 2.2% copper, 2.0% zinc, 0.5% lead with 47.5g/t silver and 0.5g/t gold from a depth of 194.35m “in semi-massive to massive sulphides hosted at the contact between strongly hydrothermally altered rocks and sulphidic black shales”.
• CEO, Dr. Bo Moller Stensgaard, explained that the Hammaslahti drilling “marks an important step towards a more balanced focus between our Finnish and Greenlandic assets”.
• He commented on the “excellent modern infrastructure, including high voltage power, heavy rail, and a double-lane paved highway adjacent to the former mine” and pointed out that mining on the Z, N and S lodes extended to “a maximum depth of 450 … [and that they remain] … open at depth”.
• He said that “In a future mining scenario, the shallow E-lode could provide an access point for the underground development of the down-plunge parts of the historically mined ore-lodes which would add significantly to the commercial viability of any near-mine discoveries”.

Conclusion: Resource drilling on relatively shallow mineralisation close to existing mining infrastructure may identify potential to re-open the former Hammaslahti mine. We look forward to results as the drilling progresses.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Bluejay Mining. The analyst has visited the historic Enonkoski mine site and holds shares in Bluejay Mining

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 2.75p, Mkt Cap £9m –RC Drilling Programme at Pitfield identifies large scale titanium and copper mineralisation

• Empire Metals reports that its initial reverse-circulation (RC) drilling at its 70%-owned  Pitfield project in Western Australia has identified a “metal-rich mineral system, hosted by sedimentary rocks displaying extensive evidence of intense alteration by hydrothermal fluids” over an area covering “~40km by 8km”.
• The company says that the drilling has “identified a new high-grade, titanium discovery with consistently high titanium grades returned in thick intersections over a wide area identified throughout the mineral system … [and that ] … all but one of 21 holes drilled” intersected titanium mineralisation with grades in the range of 4% to 10% TiO₂.
• Empire Metals confirms that drilling encountered anomalous copper grades in excess of 100ppm in “60% of the drill sample intervals … indicating that this giant mineral system contains significant amounts of copper and potential for multiple copper deposits in other parts of the system”.
• Today’s announcement explains that only 2% of the system has been drilled so far.
• Managing Director, Shaun Bunn, confirmed that “more work is required … [and that] … Additional analysis is underway as we work to understand the magnitude and potential commercial value of this titanium mineral discovery within such a unique geological setting”.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals. An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Empire

 Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 18p, Mkt Cap £19m – Q1/23 financials and MD&A

• Net loss amounted to -C$1.4m (Q1/22: -C$1.4m) with no sales of concentrate recorded during the period and mostly reflecting general administrative costs of C$1.2m (Q1/22: C$1.2m).
• FCF totalled -C$1.9m (Q1/22: -C$3.1m) after accounting for ~C$2.1m (Q1/22: C$2.9m) in capex.
• Capitalised expenses were split between development and equipment spend (~C$1.2m) and exploration related expenditures (C$0.9m).
• Closing cash balance stood at C$2.5m (YE22: C$1.0m) following a C$3.0m equity placing completed in March.
• The Company held ~$C12.3m in debt and gold option contract liabilities as of quarter end (YE22: ~C$11.0m).
• Operationally, the Company is progressing with exploration works at Omagh Gold Project, Northern Ireland,  and newly acquired Gairloch Project, Scotland.
• At Omagh, the team is completing both infill and step out drilling testing the Kerr zone located between Kerney and Joshua veins as well as down dip extensions at the Joshua vein ahead of the MRE update this quarter.
• At Gairloch, the team is planning a 800m programme in the first round of drilling at the newly acquired license testing the Kerry Road gold bearing VMS deposit.
• Drilling will focus on a historical hole as well as lateral NE and SE extensions of outcropping mineralisation.

Conclusion: The team is busy establishing underground infrastructure for production and drilling at the Omagh Gold Project with an updated MRE and mine plane due shortly while launching the first drilling programme at the newly acquired Gailroch Project in Scotland.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Galantas Gold

Greatland Gold (GGP LN) 7.75p, Mkt Cap £366m – Paterson South project farm-in agreement

• Greatland Gold has agreed to farm-in to Rio Tinto’s Paterson South Project in Western Australia.
• Greatland Gold says that it will start drilling during 2023 under the agreement which requires an initial “minimum commitment of A$1.1 million of expenditure and 2,000 metres of drilling before 31 December 2024”.
• Greatland Gold can earn an initial 51% interest in the project through spending a minimum of A$7.1m and completing 7,500m of drilling within 4 years and can increase its interest to 75% “by spending at least an additional A$14 million of exploration expenditure and completing a further 17,000 metres of drilling within three years of completing the Stage 1 Farm-In”.
• The Paterson South project area covers 1,884km² close to Greatland Gold’s 30% owned Havieron project where Newcrest Mining has earned a 70% interest and is working to progress development of resources estimated, in March 2022, at 92mt of indicated and inferred resources at an average grade of 1.9g/t gold and 0.24% copper and containing a probable ore reserve of 25mt at an average grade of 3g/t gold and 0.44% copper.
• Further exploration work is continuing to expand and improve resource definition alongside the development of an exploration decline.
• Managing Director, Shaun Day, explained that the Paterson South Project extends Greatland Gold’s “current ground position to provide a 105km contiguous holding.  The addition of the Paterson South Project more than doubles our current footprint”.
• He confirmed that high priority targets within the new area “can be incorporated in our 2023 drilling campaign … [and that they] … include underexplored anomalies which the Company considers to be the closest to a Havieron lookalike within the Paterson Province”.
• In a separate announcement today, Greatland Gold confirms that it has “signed a commitment letter, including a terms sheet, for A$220 million seven-year debt and associated hedging facilities … [while the feasibility study for the Havieron deposit is completed although the company says that] … Given the relative proximity of reaching the top of the Havieron orebody, it remains Greatland’s preference not to utilise the proposed A$220 million seven-year debt and associated hedging facilities until the Havieron Feasibility Study is finalised”.

Conclusion: The agreement with Rio Tinto more than doubles Greatland Gold’s land holdings in the Paterson region and we look forward to results of the initial drilling.

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 11p, Mkt Cap £27m – Q1/23 financials and MD&A

• Loss for the year was -US$0.6m (Q1/22: -$2.2m) given no DFS related spending at the Songwe Hill Project with the study having been completed in July last year.
• FCF amounted to -$1.5m (Q1/22: -$2.2m) including -$1.3m in operating cash flow and -$0.2m in capital expenditures.
• Closing cash balance stood at $5.3m (YE22: $0.5m) reflecting a ~$6.6m cash inflow including $0.5m CoTec convertible loan investment, $1.9m CoTec Maginito investment and $4.2m equity raise in February.
• Outstanding debt was at $1.8m (YE22: $1.6m).
• Operationally, the team secured the approval for environmental approval from the Malawi Environmental Protection Agency in January.
• Discussions over the mining license and conditions of the Mine Development Agreement (MDA) with authorities are continuing
• On the rare earth magnet recycling side of business, the Company conditionally consolidated its interest in HyProMag (100% held by Maginito) and HyProMag GmbH (90% interest assuming a conversion of outstanding convertible loan).
• The deal is expected to close in Q3/23.
• HyProMag is currently developing a £4.3m short loop recycling facility with an initial capacity of 100tpa NdFeB at Tyseley Energy Park in Birmingham with first production planned for 2023.
• Additionally, HyProMag is developing a similar sized facility in Germany through its 90% owned (assuming HyProMag GmbH convertible loan conversion) subsidiary HyProMag GmbH with first production planned in 2024.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.19p, Mkt cap £5.3m – CLICK FOR PDF – Board commits to an additional Salary Sacrifice Scheme

• In a measure aimed at maximising the cash available for exploration, Oriole Resources’ “Board has agreed to a new plan to sacrifice 25% of its contractual salary payments for the six-month period commencing May 2023 in return for the issue of share options”.
• The company explains that “Alongside the Salary Sacrifice Plan, the Company has also agreed to grant options to the Company’s Board and to certain members of staff … [which amounts to a total of] … 177,000,000 options” priced at 0.2p/share “an 8% premium to the closing price at 26 May 2023”.
• “Additionally, an incentive scheme is being introduced in respect of the Company’s Cameroonian employees who have worked hard to successfully deliver Cameroons first JORC compliant resource for gold. The Company has made this award in order to compensate the team for its dedication, hard work, and in lieu of material salary increases that would be in line with inflationary wage trends”.

Conclusion: Measures to conserve cash demonstrate commitment from Oriole’s management team to delivering its projects in Cameroon.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

Thor Explorations (THX LN) 18.25p, Mkt Cap £117m – Segilola produces ~21koz of gold in Q1

• Thor Explorations reports production of 20,629oz of gold in the thrre months to 31^st March from its Segilola Gold mine in Nigeria.
• The company sold 21,553oz of gold at an average cash operating cost of US$899/oz and all-in-sustaining cos of US$1,346/oz during the quarter with sales realising an average of US$1,902/oz.
• Quarterly revenue of US$40.3m (Q1 -2022  US$24.9m) generated EBITDA of US$16.1m (Q1 2022 – US$13.4m) and a net profit of US$4.3m (Q1 2022 – US$3.5m).
• Thor Explorations confirms that its “Senior debt facility reduced to US$27.9 million as at 31 March 2023”.
• The company confirms that it expects to produce between “85,000 to 95,000 oz for 2023 maintained, weighted towards the second half of the year, with an AISC guidance of US$1,150 to US$1,350 per oz”.
• Pre-feasibility work on the Douta project in Senegal is continuing with a study expected to be completed in Q4 2023.
• President and CEO, Segun Lawson, said that “This was envisaged to be a difficult quarter with a lower mined grade, difficult mining conditions in the Segilola Pit west wall and a higher utilization of heavy equipment … [and he acknowledged that] … Our costs were at the higher end of our guidance, however we expect our costs to reduce materially in the second half of the year as we complete our mining in the current difficult areas”.

Conclusion: The Segilola pit has weathered difficult mining conditions during Q1 and performance is expected to improve as the year progresses.  The company is maintaining its full year production guidance of 85-95,000oz with AISC e3xpected in the range US$1,150-1,350/oz.

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474

 Sales

Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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