SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 28th October 2025

Gold continues sell-off as traders unwind positions amid profit-taking

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 80 Mile moves to 100% ownership of Ferrandina Biofuels Plant in southern Italy

Anglo American (AAL LN) – Iron-ore production guidance increased by ~1mt as work to simplify the business continues

Arafura (ARU AU) SUSPENDED – Up to A$525m equity raise

Cameco (CCJ US) – Partnership with US Government and Brookfield for Westinghouse nuclear reactor roll-out

Develop Global (DVP AU) – Woodlawn to hit steady-state production 1Q26

Liontown Resources (LTR AU) – Sales lower on shipment delays, ramp up on track

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) – Plans to drill at the Harts Range rare-earths project, NT, Australia

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – Unaffected by presidential executive order

Perpetua Resources (PPTA US) – $255m equity investment from Agnico Eagle and JP Morgan

Resolute Mining* (RSG LN) – Overall 2025 guidance intact as higher expectations for Senegal operations counterbalance those for Mali

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – Kasiya to export value-added concentrate

Valterra Platinum (VALT LN) – Production recovering from the weather related setbacks earlier this year

Gold ($3,904/oz) continues sell-off as traders unwind positions amid profit-taking

• Gold has now unwound much of its October rally, which peaked c.$4,400/oz, having begun the month at $3,860/oz.
• The metal has fallen another 1.9% this morning to $3,906/oz.
• On a ‘fundamental’ basis, gold has been hit by easing geopolitical tensions between the US and China, with signs of a truce on the ongoing trade war seen over the weekend.
• Gold had seen increased signs of speculative inflows over October, with retail investors boosting positions in the metal following its sharp rise earlier this month.
• We also suspect algorithm-based CTA funds have begun unwinding positions as momentum in the metal fades.
• We would not be surprised to see central banks continue to accumulate into the current weakness, with reports that Iran and Bulgaria both began bolstering their reserves over the summer.
• Crypto group Tether is also set to continue its purchases of gold bullion to reinforce its balance sheet as it enjoys substantial returns from its US Treasury holdings, which are bought to back its stablecoin product.
• Today, Bloomberg reports that South Korea’s central bank is eyeing additional gold purchases ‘from a medium to long-term perspective,’ for the first time since 2013.
• Gold is up 50% ytd, predominantly driven by central bank buying.
• However, the Philippine central bank also suggested this week that it was considering selling some gold holdings, after the recent price surge pushed gold to over 12% of its reserves.
• Beijing recently began a push to encourage foreign central banks to store their gold in China vs London’s gold vaults.
• Commodity traders are looking to bolster their gold trading divisions, with Trafigura and Gunvor both bringing in precious-metals trading teams.

Turkey hit by 6.1 magnitude earthquake

• Western Turkey was hit by an earthquake yesterday shaking Istanbul and other western town.
• The earthquake was centred in the town of Sindirgi in Balikesir province. 22 casualties have been reported.
• A number of collapsed buildings will remind many of larger and more deadly earthquakes and the need for better building regulations.
• The use of vanadium in structural steel is particularly important as quench & tempered steel is brittle under stress.

Copper – Increasing trade interest for copper futures based on physical deficit forecasts for 2026

• Copper prices are holding close to the $11,000/t mark with the ICSG expecting a deficit of around 150,000t next year.
• The ICSG are relatively cautious on copper deficit potential in our experience.

IG TV Commodity Corner: 

ii TV – Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

US – Fed to deliver a 0.25pp cut to the benchmark rate tomorrow.

• Five tech firms accounting for around a quarter of the US equity benchmark are to report earnings results today and Thursday (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Apple).
• Earnings season so far has been strong with the S&P 500 on course to deliver the most sales beats in around four years.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading close to all time highs with VIX down at 15.9 levels, off 25.0 hit amid a flare up in US-China trade relations earlier in October.

Japan – President Trump met with PM Takaichi with two nations discussing trade deals in cush sectors as nuclear power, AI, defence and REE among others.

• Japan is considering up to $550bn investment into the US.
• One of projects included construction of nuclear reactors and small modular reactors by Westinghouse involving Japanese suppliers and operators in up to $100bn worth of investments.

Eurozone – Inflation expectations are well contained.

• ECB measures of 1y and 3y CPI outlook at 2.7% and 2.5% in September, vs 2.8% and 2.5% previous month.

Germany – Consumer sentiment remains weak with the GfK measure falling more than expected in November.

• GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov/Oct/Est): -24.1/-22.5 (revised from -22.3)/-22.0

UK – Chancellor Rachel Reeves may see a larger than forecast downgrade to UK productivity estimates in the Budget.

• That would potentially deliver a more than £20bn hit to the budget.
• The Office for Budget Responsibility may cut its productivity growth by 0.3pp vs 0.1-0.2pp expected.
• The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that each 0.1pp is equivalent to an £7bn increase in public sector net borrowing in 2029-30.
• Estimates increase the prospect of higher tax increases including income tax.

Jamaca / Cuba – Hurricane Melissa

• Hurricane Melissa is the most powerful storm recorded this year and the strongest hurricane to ever hit Jamaca with wind speeds of 175mph
• The storm is expected to drop up to 76cm of rain in parts of Jamaca and is set to hit Cuba later today.
• By comparison London has seen just 53cm of rain this year vs 2024 at 124cm in total.

Currencies

US$1.1661/eur vs 1.1625/eur previous. Yen 151.96/$ vs 152.94/$. SAr 17.279/$ vs 17.228/$. $1.333/gbp vs $1.332/gbp. 0.655/aud vs         0.654/aud. CNY 7.101/$ vs 7.111/$.

Dollar Index 98.69 vs 98.97 previous.

China – RMB rises on increasing potential for a US / China trade deal

• The dollar index is lower despite a relatively good October PMI growth at 98.69.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,913/oz vs US$4,069/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.7moz vs 98.2moz previous

Platinum US$1,544/oz vs US$1,612/oz previous

Palladium US$1,361/oz vs US$1,432/oz previous

Silver US$45.8/oz vs US$48.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,050/oz vs US$8,050/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,886/t vs US$11,024/t previous

Aluminium US$2,851/t vs US$2,876/t previous

Nickel US$15,170/t vs US$15,335/t previous

Zinc US$3,016/t vs US$3,042/t previous

Lead US$2,016/t vs US$2,016/t previous

Tin US$35,850/t vs US$36,000/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$64.5/bbl vs US$66.0/bbl previous

• WTI crude oil prices edged back below $60/bbl overnight on market speculation that OPEC+ may decide on a further production hike for December when its members meet this Sunday.
• Aker BP has priced its $1bn offering of 5.250% senior notes due 2035 at a price equal to 99.531% of the principal.

Henry Hub Gas US$3.29/mmBtu vs US$3.27/mmBtu yesterday

Natural Gas €31.2/MWh vs €31.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $77.7/lb vs $77.4/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.7/t vs US$105.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$443.6/t vs US$442.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$193.5/t vs US$193.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$108.5/t vs US$107.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$48,570/t vs US$48,570/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$71,827/t vs US$70,382/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$11,056/t vs US$10,898/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$910/t vs US$900/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$643/mtu vs US$643/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$395/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.9/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$274/t vs US$274/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,106/t vs US$1,104/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

High-end Chinese EV maker Nio struggling to maintain growth

• Chinese automaker Nio is losing momentum in the premium EV market as competition intensifies.
• Nio delivered about 222,000 vehicles in 2024, up 40% on 2023, but has recorded a $720m loss in H1 2025.
• Nio’s decision to expand into mid-range models has diluted its premium brand and the company has seen gross margin fall 5% after a price war triggered by BYD and Tesla.
• China’s EV sales growth slowed to 7.5% yoy in August, down from 12% in 2024, with only 15 of 129 brands expected to be profitable by 2030 according to AlixPartners.

Company news

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.75p, Mkt cap £32m – 80 Mile moves to 100% ownership of Ferrandina Biofuels Plant in southern Italy

(80 Mile now holds 100% of Hydrogen Valley which owns the Ferrandina biofuels plant in Italy and White Flame Energy in Greenland)

• 80 Mile PLC reports the signing of three 3 strategic MOUs with Fortune 500 Energy Group, Ludoil, and JEnergy.
• Management are also moving towards full 100% ownership of the Ferrandina Biofuels Plant.
• The Ferrandina biofuels facility is ramping up capacity to meet new demand for SAF ‘Sustainable Aviation Fuel’, HVO ‘Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil’ and biodiesel.
• Strategic MOU signed for the supply up to 80,000tpa of renewable feedstocks to the Ferrandina plant starting 1^st November including Palm Oil Methyl Ester and repurposed used cooking oil to be delivered to the Taranto port, ~70km from the Ferrandina plant.
• Tolling MOU with Ludoil Energia covering 50% of plant capacity whereby Ludoil will provide feedstock and Hydrogen Valley will make revenue solely from processing.
  • “The tolling structure is estimated to generate approximately €8m net profit per year for Hydrogen Valley.”
  • “The other 50% of the capacity is estimated to be double that for total of €24 million net (assuming full production)”
• Management plan to restart the process plant in December full production in January.
• Ferrandina plant permitted capacity: 150,000tpa
• Production:    
  • • 80,000 tpa biodiesel in the short term
    • 40,000 tpa of SAF longer term
• MOU with JEnergy S.p.A for a short-term framework for the supply of biodiesel and bioliquids and longer-term discussions on SAF and HVO supply
• To cover: 10,000tpa biodiesel, additional bioliquids, and longer-term cooperation on SAF and HVO
  • Biodiesel supply from: January 2026
  • SAF/HVO supply from: 2027 onwards
• MOU with NACATA Commodities announced in July for an initial five years covering:
  • Up to 120,000 tpa of feedstock supply
  • Offtake for: 40,000tpa of esterified bioliquid and 80,000 tpa of biodiesel for
• MOU with Tecnoparco Valbasento for up to 40,000tpa of biofuel from Greenswitch, for use in its cogeneration units.
  • “The initial 40,000 tpa could increase if Tecnoparco’s affiliate industrial operators are included.”
• Revised deal for 100% ownership of Hydrogen Valley which owns the Ferrandina Plant
  • 80M has paid Greendome €100,000 and will issue 220,000,000 new ordinary shares in the Company to Greendome Holdings Inc.
  • 80M will also assume additional deferred payments to the original vendor from Greendome.
    • “If the value of these New Ordinary Shares triple before June 30th, 2026, then no further payments will be due to Greendome.
    • The shares are locked in until June 2026. Otherwise the following will be payable;”
  • €750,000 in cash,
  • or €750,000 worth of shares in 80M at the 30 day VWAP,
  • or €1,500,000 50% in cash and 50% in 80M shares.
• Further share issue:
• 10m to Hydrogen Valley where  Mr Mark Frascongna, the current MD at Hydrogen Valley will join 80 Mile as CEO of the Italian operations in a non-board role.
• Hydrogen Valley will become the 100% owned subsidiary of 80M.
• Hydrogen Valley reported a post-tax profit of: £1,899,205 for the year-end 30 June 2025.
• Total new shares: 230,000,000 being issued by way of the transaction effective on or before 14th November 2025.

Conclusion: The consolidation of 80 Mile’s ownership in Ferrandina Biofuels Plant for a relatively minor consideration is a major step forward.

The signature of four MOUs in relation to feedstock supply, tolling and offtake should transform the profit potential of the plant from January.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has visited Dundas in Greenland.

Anglo American (AAL LN) 2,882p, Mkt Cap £33bn – Iron-ore production guidance increased by ~1mt as work to simplify the business continues

• Reporting its Q3 production results for the three months to 30th September 2025, Anglo American highlights its copper and iron-ore operations and progress on its business simplification initiative including the US$2.5bn disposal of its residual 19.9% interest in the platinum business now known as Valterra Platinum.
• Summarising the performance, Chief Executive, Duncan Wanblad, confirmed that Anglo American is “well positioned to meet 2025 guidance”.
• Commenting on the business restructuring he also confirmed that Anglo American continues “to work through the regulatory approvals for the Nickel transaction and, for De Beers, we are making good progress with the dual track separation and a structured sale process is currently under way”.
• He also highlighted the merger with Teck Resources as “our next major strategic step to accelerate value accretive growth, with the combined company forming a global critical minerals champion offering more than 70% copper exposure” through the creation of a 1.35mtpa copper producer by 2027.
• Among the core businesses, quarterly copper output of 184kt brought YTD output to 526kt t (2024 Q3 -181kt and YTD 575kt) with “higher grades at both Quellaveco and Los Bronces, offset by lower production at Collahuasi due to lower grades and copper recovery”.
• Copper production guidance for the year is maintained in the range 690-750kt with cost guidance also confirmed at ~US$1.51/lb.
• The Chilean operations are expected to contribute 380-410kt of copper production at a cost of ~US$ 1.95/lb for with Peru producing 310-340kt at ~US$1.00/lb.
• The company explains that in “2026, Collahuasi will continue to process some lower-grade materials from stockpiles until access to high grade ROM ore in the Rosario pit is available towards the end of the year. Current expectations indicate that production rates for 2026 will be broadly similar to 2025, however, a significant rebound is anticipated in 2027 and beyond”.
• At Quellaveco in Peru, quarterly production “increased by 21% to 83,300 tonnes, benefiting from strong plant performance which enabled higher recoveries and higher throughput, coupled with a higher grade phase this quarter. As planned, in 2025, the mine is expected to average similar grades as 2024, with lower grades expected in the fourth quarter”.
• Production of 14.3mt of iron ore during Q3 brings YTD output to 45.7mt (Q3 2024 – 15.7mt and 2024 YTD – 46.5mt) including quarterly output of ~9.2mt from Kumba in S Africa reflecting “maintenance activities ahead of the main tie-in of the ultra-high-dense-media-separation (UHDMS) project in 2026” and ~5.1mt from the South American operations of Minas Rio where a five-yearly inspection of the pipeline in caused a 23-day shutdown in August and contributed to a reduction of around 1.6mt of iron ore during the quarter to ~5.1mt (Q2 2025 – 6.7mt).
• Anglo American has increased its full year iron ore production guidance for 2025 to 58-62mt (previously 57-61mt) as a result of increasing its guidance for Minas Rio to 23-25mt (previously 22-24mt).  Guidance for Kumba is unchanged as is the Group’s cost guidance of US$36/t.
• “Manganese ore production increased by 140% to 972,800 tonnes, reflecting more normalised production levels following the impact of the temporary suspension caused by tropical cyclone Megan in March 2024”.
• Quarterly rough diamond production of ~7.7m carats brought YTD production to ~17.9m carats (2024 YTD – 18.8m carats) “primarily driven by higher production from Jwaneng in Botswana, in anticipation of the extended plant maintenance downtime in the fourth quarter of 2025”.
• The company describes “challenging” trading conditions for rough diamonds during Q3 with the “improvement in rough diamond demand seen during the first half of 2025 … undermined by new US tariffs on diamond imports from India”.
• “India remains the main cutting centre for natural diamonds and the US remains the largest end-market for diamond jewellery … [but Anglo American points to] … a positive development in September, when the US included natural diamonds to its Tariff Annex III list making them eligible for tariff exemptions for countries with trade agreements”.
• Diamond production and cost guidance for 2025 remains intact at 20-23m carats at a cost of ~US$94/carat.
• Steelmaking coal production “decreased by 54% to 1.9 million tonnes, primarily impacted by the incident at Moranbah North in March 2025 and the sale of our minority interest in Jellinbah which completed in January 2025”.
• Anglo American says that at “Moranbah North, we continue to make progress towards a safe and structured remote restart and ramp up this year, ahead of transitioning to normal longwall operations”.
• The YTD “average realised price for hard coking coal was $162/tonne, compared to the benchmark price of $184/tonne … [and this] … resulted in a decrease in the price realisation to 88% (YTD 2024: 100%), reflecting a more normalised realisation compared to the comparative period, which benefited as a result of the timing of sales”.
• Nickel output of 10,100t in Q3 brings YTD output to 29,400t (YTD 2024 – 29,400t) with “a definitive agreement to sell the Nickel business to MMG Singapore Resources Pte. Ltd, subject to relevant approvals”.

Conclusion: Anglo American highlights progress on the streamlining of its portfolio.  Iron ore production guidance for 2025 has been increased by 1mt to 58-62mt with the increase coming from Minas Rio in Brazil with copper production and cost guidance maintained.

Arafura (ARU AU) SUSPENDED – Up to A$525m equity raise

• The Company is raising A$525m in new equity as the team advances towards FID on the Nolans REE Project, Northern Territory (Australia).
• The raise includes a A$475m institutional placing.
• Hancock Prospecting, the largest shareholder in Arafura, is taking A$125m.
• The remainder of the institutional placing is underwritten.
• Institutional placing shares will represent ~58% of existing shares on issue.
• In addition, the Company is launching an non-underwritten share purchase plan for extra A$50m.
• The placing price of A$0.28 represents a 25% discount to the last closing price.
• Nolans is a FS stage permitted construction ready project:
  • Open pit, 1mtpa throughput over 38y LOM
  • 4.4ktpa NdPr oxide
  • US$1,191m development capex
  • Opex US$46.44/kg NdPr
  • Post tax NPV8 and IRR US$1.9bn and 18% (US$117/kg NdPr oxide offtake period, US$136/kg average LOM)
  • 2.3kt pa NdPr currently under bdinging offtakes with Hyandai & Kia, Siemens and Traxys.
  • MRE 56mt at 2.6% TREO (0.7% NdPr)
  • PP 30mt at 2.9% TREO (0.8% NdPr)

Cameco (CCJ US) $87, Mkt Cap $38bn – Partnership with US Government and Brookfield for Westinghouse nuclear reactor roll-out

• Canadian uranium producer Cameco has signed a binding agreement with Brookfield and the US Department of Commerce.
• The agreement sees a strategic partnership between the three groups to accelerate the ‘global deployment of Westinghouse Electric Company’s nuclear reactor technologies.’
• The US Government will arrange financing and facilitate permitting and approvals for the nuclear reactors in the US, ‘with an aggregate investment value of >$80bn.’
• Cameco holds a 49% stake in Westinghouse, with Brookfield holding the majority.
• The US will provide financial, regulatory, policy and diplomatic support.
• The US Government will be entitled to 20% of any cash distributions over $17.5bn.
• The US Government will also require an IPO if the valuation of Westinghouse is expected to be >$30bn, with the Government receiving a warrant to purchase equity securities equivalent to 20% of the public value of the IPO after deducting $17.5bn from the public value.
• Westinghouse has agreements for its AP1000 nuclear reactor globally, and reported adj. EBITDA of $483m in 2024, attributable to Cameco.
• Westinghouse is developing the AP300 small modular reactor targeted at industrial, remote mining, off-grid communities, defence facilities and critical infrastructure.

Develop Global (DVP AU) A$3.7, Mkt Cap A$1.2bn – Woodlawn to hit steady-state production 1Q26

• Polymetallic Australian producer Develop reports its September quarterly report.
• Company sold 8kt zinc, copper lead concentrate over the quarter, generating revenue of A$20m.
• 130kt of development and stope ore mined, up 22%qoq.
• 145kt milled over the quarter, with 500t Cu, 1.3kt Zn and 537t Pb produced.
• Underground development ‘well ahead of schedule’ with 1,540m over the quarter.
• Company expects steady-state production in March 2026.
• At Sulphur Springs, Company released a DFS for a 1.5mtpa underground operation, producing 79ktpa Zn and 11.5ktpa Cu between years 3-7.
• 8 year LOM with pre-tax A$921m NPV8.
• Develop will begin project off-take agreements, project financing, and pre-development activities this quarter.
• Company is aiming extensions to the MRE along strike and at depth and is building a standalone decline and drill drive to support the expansion drilling programme.
• Develop’s underground mining services division reported A$54m in revenue, and has extended the Bellevue contract by seven months, valued at A$130m.
• Cash position reported at A$204m, having raised A$180m over the prior quarter via a share placement.

Liontown Resources (LTR AU) A$1.1, Mkt Cap A$3.1bn – Sales lower on shipment delays, ramp up on track

• Australian spodumene producer reports quarterly results to 30^th September.
• The Company produced 87.2kt SC5, up 1%qoq.
• Average Li2O grade down 4%qoq to 5%.
• Open pit grade mined at 1.3% Li2O, underground grade mined at 1.4%.
• Ore processed at 580kt, with recoveries at 59%.
• Average realised price of $700/t SC6e, down 5%qoq.
• Unit operating costs of $715/t, up 24%qoq, with AISC at $886/t, up 13%qoq.
• Revenue reported at A$68m, down 29%qoq.
• Operating cash flow at ($44m) on lower sales volume following shipment delays and the impact of backward-looking pricing formulas referencing May and June prices.
• A$39m spent on underground development and TSF construction, alongside waste stripping and general plant infrastructure.
• Cash position at A$420m, following the A$363m placement.
• Liontown expects to ‘deliver further operating and capital efficiency gains as underground operations ramp up through FY26.

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 1p, Mkt Cap £16m – Plans to drill at the Harts Range rare-earths project, NT, Australia

• Reporting on the three months to 30th September 2025, New Frontier Minerals highlights exploration progress at its Harts Range rare-earths project in the Northern Territory where, subject to regulatory permissions, it plans an initial reverse-circulation (RC) drilling programme.
• Results of field exploration in June confirmed a new target for drilling at the Old Trafford prospect around 320m west of the existing mineralisation at the Westminster prospect and within an “east-west trending structural corridor now extending over 2.4km” which hosts the Cusp, Bobs, Paddington and Westminster prospects.
• Bulk sample results from the fieldwork included a 25kg sample from the Cusp prospect which assayed 1.72% TREO (total rare earth oxides) “including 0.19% Dy₂O₃, 0.03% Tb₄O₇), 4.51% Nb₂O₅ and 0.91% Ta₂O₅”.
• Chairman, Gerrard Hall, described the results from the Harts Range project as “outstanding” and confirmed that the drilling contractors, Geodrill, “are ready to start drilling, subject to the necessary regulatory approvals”
• The company also describes progress on its copper projects in NW Queensland where “Bulk samples collected from historical stockpiles at the Big One Deposit for preliminary sequential metallurgical test work returned high copper recovery rates”.
• Assays from grab samples in the area tested “to assess the leachability of copper under conventional processing conditions … returned copper grades ranging from 3.9% to 11.85%” and show the potential of a “fast-track production scenario in collaboration with Austral Resources via the Mt Kelly Processing Plant”.
• Mr. Hall confirmed that “metallurgical testing and sampling … [in Queensland has] … confirmed high copper grades, supporting our near-term production strategy under the Mt Kelly MOU with Austral Resources”.

Conclusion: Subject to regulatory approval, an initial drilling campaign is expected to start shortly at the Harts Range rare earth project in the Northern Territory, Australia.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 56p, Mkt Cap £194m – Unaffected by presidential executive order

BUY

• The Company reports that latest executive order (No.2 2025) by the president of Malawi banning raw materials exports is not applicable to the Songwe Hill REE Project.
• The project is planned to produce a mixed rare earth carbonate product at the site.
• The order relates to minerals that have not been processed, refined or valued added in Malawi.
• The announcement follows a similar press release by Lindian Resources yesterday that develops the Kangankunde REE Project and plans to produce monazite concentrate.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Mkango

Perpetua Resources (PPTA US) $35, Mkt Cap $3.7bn – $255m equity investment from Agnico Eagle and JP Morgan

• Perpetua, holder of the Stibnite Gold/Antimony Project in Idaho, reported an equity investment from Agnico Eagle and JP Morgan yesterday.
• The Company has agreed to a $255m placing from the gold producer and JP MorganChase’ $1.5tn Security and Resiliency Initiative fund.
• Agnico Eagle will take a 6.5% stake via the purchase of 7.7m shares for $180m.
• AEM will also receive warrants to purchase 2.9m shares at prices $31.5, $35 and $38.5/share for one, two and three year periods for up to $100m.
• JPM will invest $75m to take a 2.7% stake, with warrants priced the same as AEM over the same period.
• Funds will be used to reduce financing risk and accelerate the development of the project.
• Perpetua previously announced the application of up to $2bn in project financing from the US Export-Import Bank for development of the project.
• Stibnite Project:
  • 15 year LOM producing 296kozpa Au.
  • The project flowsheet includes stibnite flotation for an antimony concentrate and pyrite flotation + POX and leaching for a gold/silver dore.
  • AISC net of antimony and silver by-products at $756/oz Au.
  • Development CAPEX at $2.2bn, with total CAPEX at $3.1bn
  • Post-tax NPV5 of $3.7bn at $2,900/oz Au, $31.5/oz Ag and $21/lb antimony.
  • Reserves of 4.8moz Au at 1.43g/t Au
  • M&I Resource of 6moz at 1.42g/t Au.
• Paulson holds a 30% stake in Perpetua.

Resolute Mining* (RSG LN) 47.9p, Mkt Cap £1,159m – Overall 2025 guidance intact as higher expectations for Senegal operations counterbalance those for Mali

• Resolute Mining reports the production of 59,857 oz of gold at a cost (on an all-in-sustaining cost basis) of US$2,205/oz in the 3 months to 30^th September bringing YTD production to 211,318oz at an AISC of US$1,834/oz (TYD 2024 – 252,182oz at US$1,444/oz).
• The company’s 2025 production guidance range “narrowed to 275-285 koz from 275-300 koz reflecting a combination of increased guidance at Mako and lower guidance at Syama”.
• Full year cost guidance, on an all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) basis is “revised to $1,750 – 1,850/oz (from $1,650 – 1,750/oz) due to impact of higher royalties and lower production at Syama”.
• The Syama mine in Mali produced 39,918oz of gold during the quarter at an AISC of US$2,358/oz, including 31,833oz from sulphide ore processing and 8,085 from oxide ore sources bringing YTD output to 129,178oz (2024 – 157,050oz).
• “Syama production guidance has been revised lower to 177-183 koz (from 195-210 koz) consisting of 37-40 koz at the oxide operation and 140-143 koz at the sulphide operation … [and] … the combined Syama AISC for 2025 has been revised upwards to $1,900-2,050/oz (from $1,700-1,800/oz)”.
• The company explains that during the quarter, the head grade of the ore at Syama “was lower than expected due to the lower ore grades from the underground … as lower-grade upper levels were mined to realign the cave in the future and maximise ore recovery on lower levels”.
• Oxide ore grades at Syama were also “lower than the prior Quarter as head grades continue to be driven by processing lower grade stockpiles. This is expected to continue for the remainder of the year with high grades from the Tabakoroni pit blended into the oxide plant”.
• At Mako in Senegal, quarterly production of 19,939oz of gold brought YTD output to 77,944oz at an average AISC of US$1,180/oz (YTD 2024 – 95,244oz at US$1,212/oz).
• Explaining that “Q3 was the first full Quarter of stockpile processing at Mako … [today’s announcement explains that production] … of 19,939 oz exceeded expectations and was driven by stockpile grades that were higher than anticipated”.
• The better than expected output from Mako prompts Resolute Mining to revise “full-year production guidance to 98-102 koz … [and the company confirms that] … Mako is on track for original guidance of $1,300 – 1,400/oz with higher royalties offset by stronger gold production”.
• Potential mine-life extensions at Mako are available from satellite pits at Tomboronkoto and Bantaco which host a combined resource of “over 600koz of gold, with possibilities of expansion based on ongoing exploration results. At this stage Resolute believes … [this offers] … the potential to provide another five to 10 years of mining activities in Senegal” with initial mining at Bantaco expected in Q3 2027 and at Tomboronkoto expected in Q2 2028.
• Close spaced (25m) infill drilling at Bantaco during the quarter “has been successful in confirming the continuity of the mineralisation along strike and down dip”.
• During the quarter, work continued on the Doropo DFS in Cote d’Ivoire with delivery of the Study and an ore reserve estimate expected in Q4 this year.
• Current resources at Doropo are 4.4m oz across ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ within a total 114mt at an average grade of 1.19g/t gold.  Around 85% of the resource tonnage is classified as ‘Measured and Indicated’.
• Also in Cote d’Ivoire, exploration, including additional geochemical work, has continued at the ABC project which was acquired from AngloGold Ashanti in May 2025.
• Currently, based on around 60,000m of drilling by Centamin prior to its acquisition by AngloGold Ashanti,  the Kona North and South deposits at the ABC project host an ‘Inferred’ resource of ~2.2moz of gold at an average grade of 0.9g/t gold.
• CEO, Chris Eger, described 2025 as “a transformational year across the business as we optimize our producing assets and execute on building a diverse Africa-focused gold producer”.
• He described “operational initiatives … [at Syama] … which are already delivering value” as well as discussions with Mali Government officials and “the Prime Minister and Minister of Mines to help establish a stronger line of communication and to discuss the supply chain challenges facing the industry”.
• He also welcomed the continuing efforts to extend the life of the Mako mine in Senegal as well as the progress in Cote d’Ivoire at Doropo and the ABC project.
• Mr. Eger confirmed that “Following the performance this quarter, we have updated guidance … while maintaining our original Group production guidance, narrowed to 275-285 koz – we currently expect to be at the lower end of this range. At Mako, we have increased guidance to 98-102koz (from 80-90 koz). At Syama, we have revised guidance to 177-183 koz (from 195-210 koz)”.

Conclusion: Resolute Mining is adjusting its 2025 production and cost guidance at the lower end of its 275-285,000oz range with increased guidance for the Mako mine in Senegal offsetting reduced expectations for the Syama mine in Mali.

*SP Angel analysts hold shares in Resolute Mining

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 30.6p, Mkt Cap £207m – Kasiya to export value-added concentrate

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)

• Sovereign Metals report they have no plans to export run-of-mine Heavy Mineral Sands as defined in the Executive Order by President Peter Mutharika.
  • “All future mineralisation will be extracted and beneficiated in country to a final premium quality rutile (+95% TiO2) product. 
  • The high-quality Kasiya rutile product is planned to be a direct feedstock for titanium sponge production for high-end titanium metal products, including aerospace and defence applications.
  • Similarly, Sovereign intends to process the run-of-mine Graphite as defined in the Executive Order in-country to produce a high-quality graphite product (96% C) suitable for major industry end markets including battery producers and refractory manufacturers.”

Conclusion:  Sovereign should not be caught by the new prohibition order of raw minerals exports due their local beneficiation and value addition to the rutile and graphite material within Malawi before export.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals. The analyst has visited the Kasiya mine site and highly recommends the Malawi coffee.

Valterra Platinum (VALT LN) 4380p, Mkt Cap £11bn – Production recovering from the weather related setbacks earlier this year

• Valterra Platinum reports the production of 855koz of PGMs in concentrate (M&C) during the three months to 30^th September (Q3 2024 – 868koz) bring YTD output to 2.32moz (2024 – 2.49moz).
• Total refined PGM production of 982koz (Q3 2024 – 1.11moz) brings the YTD production to 2.37moz (2024 – 2.89moz)
• Toll refining produced a further ~220koz (Q3 2024 – ~154koz) bringing overall metal production YTD to 2.99moz (2024 – 3.34moz).
• CEO, Craig Miller, said that Valterra Platinum is seeing a “continued recovery in our quarterly M&C production volumes following the significant weather-related incidents impacting several of our assets earlier in the year, the most severe of which was the flooding at Amandelbult … [where the] … Tumela Lower section of Amandelbult Mine has successfully ramped up to steady state production ahead of schedule, marking the completion of Amandelbult’s recovery to full production following the February 2025 flooding”.
• Valterra Platinum says that “Full year production guidance at Amandelbult of 450,000-480,000 Platinum Group Metals (PGM) ounces remains intact”.
• Full year guidance for the group remains intact for the production of 3.0-.3.2moz of metal in concentrates and ~3.4moz of refined PGMs.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos –George.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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