Gold prices soar over $2,200/oz as Fed Chair Powell reiterates rate cuts this year
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU) – US to offer $600m in financing for Dubbo rare earths project
Centamin (CEY LN) – Cost reductions and increased gold prices deliver increased profit in 2023
Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – BUY, 48p/s – 2023 results highlight development and exploration progress at South Crofty
Glencore (GLEN LN) – Halts operations at zinc mine on cyclone damage
Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Invests $350m in Rincon lithium plant in Argentina
RMG / World Bank study sees much stronger demand for metals – Are we using metals because we are rich, or did we get rich from using metals?
- RMG Group have published a new paper / presentation on Metal Demand out to 2050 – focussing on Steel, Copper and Nickel.
- https://www.rmgconsulting.org/news
- Metals have played central roles in the social and economic development of societies historically.
- In 2022 the global average GDP per capita was US$12,688, the United States GDP per capita for the same year was US$76,330.
- In the same year the Sub-Saharan African GDP per capita was US$1,701. There are millions of people waiting to see their societies develop.
- Despite the fact that societal development has been the primary reason for metals demand all through history the current global discussion is focusing on demand in relation to the green transition.
- Demand for Steel, copper, and nickel in 2050 is analysed from a point of view of societal building a-yet to be published World Bank study by RMG Consulting.
- The result, demand is most probably outperforming most current forecasts.
- Total demand for metals in 2050, according to the RMG model, will reach:
-
- 3.772bnt for steel,
- 54.377mt for copper, and
- 5.649mt for nickel.
- This represents annual growth rates of :
-
- 2.3 % for steel,
- 2.7 % for copper,
- 2.7 % for nickel.
- These yearly growth rates can be compared to growth rates for the previous 30-year period 1990-2020: steel 3.3 %, copper 2.9 %, and nickel 4.0 %.
- Modelled growth rates are thus lower than those which the industry managed during the previous 30-year period.
- In all modelled scenarios the peak in metal demand comes beyond 2050.
- Comparing modelled demand in 2050 with previous forecasts by the IEA, modelled demand is:
-
- Steel – IEA growth 0%, modelled growth 92%,
- Copper – IEA growth 59%, modelled growth 118%,
- Nickel – IEA growth 150%, modelled growth 117%.
- Demand for nickel, and to a lesser degree copper, may be underestimated in the model because new technologies connected to the green transition, for example battery technologies, may not be fully accounted for.
Conclusion: The demand projections of this paper could thus be seen as a floor on top of which demand from new energy sectors should be added.
Thus, it seems likely that total demand of steel, copper, and nickel has been underestimated in previous studies.
Gold prices soar over $2,200/oz as Fed Chair Powell reiterates rate cuts this year
- Gold prices pushed over $2,200/oz last night in the wake of the FOMC meeting and the updated dot plots.
- Spot gold jumped c.2.6% last night after Powell spoke to the Press on the Fed’s ongoing approach to bringing down inflation and supporting growth.
- Rates were held at 23-year highs, however traders increased their expectations of a June rate cut to 75% from 50% on Monday.
- Powell reiterated his belief that inflation is headed towards 2%, despite two beats in inflation data over January and February.
- Benchmark rate settled by officials at 4% by 2025 end and 3% going forward.
- Interestingly, the move in gold outweighed that of Treasures, with the 10-year still holding above 4.2%.
- Similarly, the dollar weakened by 0.2% but still sits well above December levels when yields fell to 3.75%.
- Treasuries towards the front of the curve fell faster in the wake of Powell’s commitment to cuts this year.
- Gold ETF inflows remain absent, potentially providing an additional catalyst to gold’s momentum as retail investors seek exposure.
- Geopolitical risk continues to bubble, with two major wars ongoing in the Middle East and Ukraine, whilst traders also look to US elections later this year.
- Gold : S&P 500 ratio is exactly where it was in 1971 when Bretton Woods ended. Bullish for gold?
Lithium prices continue to rise as China restocking persists
- China spodumene prices have climbed to $1,210/t, up from sub $1,000/t in January.
- Carbonate prices for technical grade have climbed over $15,000/t, whilst battery grade carbonate is at $15,600/t.
- Hydroxide prices are hovering around $13,600/t.
- Chinese analysts report persistent demand for Australian spodumene products as China’s cathode restocking begins, with NMC and LFP demand continuing as EV penetration increases.
- Bloomberg reports Albemarle has begun cutting contractors from its Kemerton refinery project in WA, as it continues to cut costs amid the lower lithium pricing environment.
- The Company is proceeding with its third train but has paused the fourth train capacity expansion.
- SMM reports China increased lithium concentrate imports by 34% mom in January, up 61% at an average import price of $1,240/t.
- Zimbabwe continues to provide ore to China despite concerns over cost basis, however Australian spodumene dominates supply.
- February saw an average import price of $981/t with Australian imports falling 62% mom as Lunar New Year production pauses came into effect.
Copper climbs on lower dollar as Chinese traders ramp up bullish positions
- Copper prices rebounded to 11-month highs over $9,000/t in the wake of the Fed FOMC.
- Metals prices across the board were supported by lower dollar, alongside weaker TCRC fees encouraging smelter capacity cuts.
- Bloomberg reports SHFE bullish contracts hit a record high at 500,000 over the past week.
Iron ore holds lower following sell-off on steel production cuts
- Iron ore prices continue to hold around $105/t, despite falling below $100/t last week.
- Steel mills in China continue to struggle with weak margins, with majors including Baowu announcing output cuts into a well-stocked market.
- Analysts expect the Chinese marginal producers require c.$100/t for positive margins.
- The $40/t sell-off is considered to have stabilised as a result, despite the ongoing woes of the China property sector.
- Horizon Insights suggests steel inventories have begun to tick lower, with demand reportedly improving.
EV sales in China to top 50% of new car sales within next three months
- According to BYD CEO, Wang Chuanfu, sales of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), including battery EVs (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) will account for 50% of all new cars sold in China within the next three months.
- Sales share for NEVs hit 48.2% at the start of March.
- 9.5m NEVs were sold in China in 2023 at a market share of 31%.
-
- This breaks down into 6.7m BEVs and 2.8m PHEVs.
- Despite slow sales figures across the first two months of the year, sales are expected to continue the impressive growth from last year.
Biden administration issues new climate regulations to drive EV change
- The new Clean Air Act from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will limit the amount of pollution from vehicles.
- By 2032 more than half of new vehicles sold would have to be zero-emission vehicles in order to meet the new standards.
- The EPA will set emission limits that must be met by automakers across their entire range – those that exceed the new restrictions will face substantial penalties.
- The auto emissions rule is seen as the most impactful of four major climate regulations the Biden administration has implemented, including restrictions on emissions from power plants, trucks and methane leaks from oil and gas wells.
- Biden’s policies have been brought in with the intention of cutting US greenhouse emissions in half by 2030 and eliminating them by 2050.
- The Natural Resource Defence Council has calculated that the four regulations, combined with the Inflation Reduction Act, would reduce the nation’s greenhouse emissions 42% by 2030.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +1.03% | at | 39,512 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +2.03% | at | 40,816 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +1.88% | at | 16,854 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.08% | at | 3,077 |
Economics
US – The central bank left rates unchanged and largely shrugged off recent hotter than expected inflation and employment data guiding for rate cuts later in the year.
- The benchmark federal funds rate was left at 5.25-5.50% for a straight meeting.
- Dot plots reiterated median forecast for three cuts this year but reduced the number to three, down from four, in 2025.
- Additionally, the Fed said it would be appropriate to reduce the pace at which the central bank reduces its bond holdings “fairly soon” helping rates lower.
- The FOMC released updated economic forecasts including upward revisions to GDP growth and inflation.
- GDP is expected to growth 2.1%/2.0% in 2024/25, up from 1.4%/1.8% forecast in December.
- PCE and core PCE is forecast at 2.4%/2.2% and 2.6%/2.2%, respectively, compared to 2.4%/2.1% and 2.4%/2.2% before.
- Unemployment estimates were little changed at 4.0%/4.1% v 4.1%/4.1% estimated previously.
- Dovish policy announcement fuelled risk on market sentiment with US equity indices closing higher while a pullback in rates and US$ pushed gold prices to new highs.
Japan – Exports climbed for a third consecutive month in a sign of strengthening demand.
- Overseas shipments were up 7.8%yoy compared to a 5.1% increase expected.
- Shipments climbed 18% in the US, 15% in Europe and 2.5% in China, although, the latter was affected by the timing of Lunar New Year.
- Exports of vehicles were particularly strong climbing 20% with those for autoparts up 23%, Bloomberg reports.
- Privates sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in seven months, according to preliminary PMI numbers.
- Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 v 47.2 February.
- Preliminary Services PMI: 54.9 v 52.9 February.
- Preliminary Composite PMI: 52.3 v 50.6 February.
Eurozone – The region remained in contraction in March as measured by latest preliminary PMI data as a pick up in the services sector failed to compensate for a stronger than expected underperformance in manufacturing.
- Employment increased for a third month running in March after two months of marginal declines, although, the rate of growth slowed to only a modest pace.
- Final goods prices inflation moderated in March after hitting a nine month high in February.
- Importantly, charges for services climbed at a slowest pace in four months.
- Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 45.7 v 46.5 February and 47.0 est.
- Preliminary Services PMI: 51.1 v 50.2 February and 50.5 est.
- Preliminary Composite 49.9 v 49.2 February and 49.7 est.
Germany
- Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 41.6 v 42.5 February and 43.0 est.
- Preliminary Services PMI: 49.8 v 48.3 February and 48.8 est.
- Preliminary Composite PMI: 47.4 v 46.3 February and 47.0 est.
France
- Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 45.8 v 47.1 February and 47.5 est.
- Preliminary Services PMI: 47.8 v 48.4 February and 48.8 est.
- Preliminary Composite PMI: 47.7 v 48.1 February and 48.7 est.
UK – The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25% later today with market not expecting a first rate cut before August.
- Monetary authorities shifted the rhetoric in February from further tightening and toward the first rate cut, Bloomberg writes.
- Inflation has been trending down with January and February readings coming in below forecasts lifting expectations for a cut to be announced earlier in the year.
- Separately, preliminary PMI numbers released today showed economic activity continued to expand in March led by the services sector, although, inflationary pressures remained.
- Rising costs and resilient demand meant that services sector as a whole increased at the fastest rate for eight months in March.
- Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 v 47.5 February and 47.8 est.
- Preliminary Services PMI: 53.4 v 53.8 February and 53.8 est.
- Preliminary Composite PMI: 52.9 v 53.0 February and 53.1 est.
Australia – The A$ is trading higher this morning reflecting weakness in the US$ following dovish Fed policy rate announcement as well as stronger than expected employment numbers for February in Australia.
- Employment Change: 116.5k and 15.3k (revised from 0.5k) January and 40.0k est.
- Unemployment Rate: 3.7% v 4.1% January and 4.0% est.
Russia – 13 Miners trapped 120m underground at Pioneer Gold mine in the Amur region of Russia
- A specialist team of mine rescuers has been sent to the Pioneer mine where 13 miners are trapped 120m underground.
- Pioneer which was originally built by Peter Hambro Mining is one of Russia’s largest gold mines, though the mine is now operated by UMMC.
- Hundreds of rescuers are reported to be clearing rubble and rock while pumping water out of the mine.
- The rescue team are attempting to drill into the area where the miners are thought to be trapped to establish contact.
- President Putin has been informed of the situation and ordered that every effort be made to save the miners.
- We think he may have said something similar about saving the Submariners on the Kursk submarine where the 23 surviving submariners could have been saved if Russia had allowed access by Western rescuers.
- We would like to congratulate Putin on his well-organised re-election and we hope his tenure lasts as long as Liz Truss’s Prime Ministerial office.
Currencies
US$1.0915/eur vs 1.0857/eur previous. Yen 151.17/$ vs 151.47/$. SAr 18.713/$ vs 18.953/$. $1.278/gbp vs $1.270/gbp. 0.662/aud vs 0.652/aud. CNY 7.199/$ vs 7.200/$.
Dollar Index 103.40 vs 103.98 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$2,205/oz vs US$2,157/oz previous
Gold ETFs 82,5moz vs 82,2moz previous
Platinum US$911/oz vs US$894/oz previous
Palladium US$1,025/oz vs US$988/oz previous
Silver US$25.58/oz vs US$25/oz previous
Rhodium US$4,600/oz vs US$4,700/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$ 9,026/t vs US$8,938/t previous
Aluminium US$ 2,311/t vs US$2,277/t previous
Nickel US$ 17,600/t vs US$17,570/t previous
Zinc US$ 2,557/t vs US$2,507/t previous
Lead US$ 2,071/t vs US$2,084/t previous
Tin US$ 27,775/t vs US$27,250/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$86.6/bbl vs US$86.8/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices moved lower despite the EIA reporting w/w draws of 2mb to US crude and 3mb to gasoline stocks, with refinery utilisation levels increasing 1% to 87.8% as the maintenance season tapers.
- European energy prices edged lower as EU natural gas storage levels fell just 0.7% w/w to 59.4% full (vs 41.9% 5-Yr average), with only Germany still 66% full and aggregate storage at 678TWh.
Natural Gas €27.3/MWh vs €28.2/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $88.5/lb vs $85.8/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$106.2/t vs US$107.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$544.2/t vs US$546.0/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$109.3/t vs US$110.3/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$124.8/t vs US$125.3/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$28,550/t vs US$28,550/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$47,921/t vs US$47,920/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$15,071/t vs US$14,932/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,210/t vs US$1,190/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$985/t vs US$985/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$305/mtu vs US$305/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$510/t vs US$510/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 26.45/kg vs US$26.45/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$327/t vs US$327/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,452/t vs US$1,451/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$59.6/t vs US$59.6/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$305.0/t vs US$305.0/t
Battery News
EIB to finance Northvolt’s battery factory expansion
- The European Investment Bank will lend $1.04bn to Northvolt to finance the expansion of its Swedish gigafactory.
- The expansion is expected to increase annual output capacity up to 60GWh.
Tesla producing enough battery cells for 1000 Cybertrucks a week
- Tesla produced enough cells for 1000 Cybertrucks last week at Giga Texas.
- According to Tesla, battery production is not a bottleneck in Cybertruck production and Tesla has weeks of battery inventory.
- The Cybertruck has a battery pack of about 123kWh, which means that Tesla produced more 123MWh last week – equivalent of 6GWh annual capacity.
Company News
Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU) A$1.44, Mcap A$240m: US to offer $600m in financing for Dubbo rare earths project
- Australian Strategic Minerals has received a US$600m Letter of Interest from the US Export-Import Bank to fund the construction of the Dubbo Rare Earth project.
- The support will be linked to the provision of US equipment and services and its future position in the US rare earth supply chain.
- The Export Finance Australia group had previously committed A$200m to the project financing, which US support will be in addition of.
- ASM provided an optimisation study update in 2021 for the project, highlighting:
-
- 20 year mine life
- 1mpta plant feed producing 21.8ktpa of zirconium, hafnium, NdPr, dysprosium and terbium oxides.
- Production will be heavily weighted towards zirconia at 13.5ktpa.
- Annual operating costs of A$287m.
- Post-tax NPV8 of A$1.6bn
- Zirconia price assumed of US$10/kg, $30/kg for dehafniated zirconia, c.US$100/kg for NdPr and $580/kg dysprosium, $1460/kg for terbium.
- CAPEX of $1.7bn
- Reserves of 19mt at a TREO of 0.74%, and 1.89% ZrO2.
- The funding commitment is dependent on EXIM due diligence and ASM obtaining necessary approvals for the Project.
Conclusion: The funding for the Dubbo project follows the A$840m financing announcement for Gina Rheinhardt-backed Arafura rare earths mine and refinery in Central Australia. Western Governments continue to show their desperation for rare earth supply, despite trough pricing for NdPr currently. We expect Beijing’s imposition of export controls on Germanium and Gallium last year, in addition to memories of the 2011 price spike, has triggered renewed urgeny to fund projects and secure supply chains.
Centamin (CEY LN) 110.6p, Mkt Cap £1,228m – Cost reductions and increased gold prices deliver increased profit in 2023
- Centamin reports a 25% increase in EBITDA for 2023 to US$398.2m (2022 – US$319.0m) and a 27% rise in after tax profit to US$92.3m (2022- US$171.0m).
- The company has declared a final dividend of 2US¢/share (US$23m), subject to shareholders’ approval, bringing distributions for the year to 4US¢/share (US$46m).
- The financial results reflect the production of 450,058oz of gold at an all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) of US$1,205/oz sold.
- Highlighting operational achievement in 2023, the company points to a reduction of US$194/oz in AISC, “Despite ongoing local inflationary pressures” and delivering costs below “the lower end of our guidance range”.
- Centamin also says that it has reduced greenhouse gas emissions from its Sukari mine by “by 7% since 2021 base year, driven primarily by the 21.5 million litre reduction in diesel consumption during the first full year of solar power generation”.
- The company also says that its following reinvestment programme, which will be completed during 2024, it “has been repositioned towards consistently delivering 500,000 ounces per annum over the long-term, with further growth and cost saving opportunities identified”.
- Centamin confirms its 2024 production and cost guidance range of 470-500,000oz of gold production at an AISC of US$1,200-1,350/oz sold and for capital expenditure of US$215m.
- The company also confirms that it expects to complete its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) on the Doropo gold project in Cote d’Ivoire during 2024 along with the completion of its Solar Expansion Study and completion of the “Sukari 50MW grid connection project construction” during the second half of the year.
Conclusion: Centamin has delivered reduced cost, increased profit and EBITDA in 2023 and is aiming for further production increases and continuing cost containment in 2024,
Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) 9.25p, Mkt Cap £50m – 2023 results highlight development and exploration progress at South Crofty
BUY – 48p/s
- In its financial results for the 11 months to 31st December 2023, published today, Cornish Metals reports a loss of C$3.6m and a closing cash balance of C$25.8m and reports on progress of its plans to resume tin production at the historic South Crofty mine.
- The results recognise a C$2.0m gain on foreign currency translation and highlight expenditure of C$14.8m on the construction of the water treatment plant (WTP) and ancillary infrastructure used to treat mine water from the flooded historic workings prior to discharge into the Red River as well as dewatering costs of C$1.3m since dewatering started in October 2023.
- Other main items of expenditure include a further C$10.6m “relating to the advancement of South Crofty to a potential construction decision, primarily for the metallurgical drill programme, the feasibility study and planning activities for dewatering and NCK … [New Cooks Kitchen] … shaft re-access … [as well as C$1.2m] … for the continuation of the exploration programme at Carn Brea”.
- Cornish Metals reaffirms its intention to publish a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for South Crofty in Q2 2024 and subsequently complete a Feasibility Study.
- Work on the Feasibility Study is making good progress across multiple workstreams with geotechnical and site investigation work, continuing metallurgical testing, including flowsheet design and underground mine design all progressing or complete.
- The constituent elements of the Feasibility Study are “expected to be completed by the end of June 2024” excluding the continuing infill drilling programme.
- Exploration drilling of the ‘Wide Formation’ including the completion of a 14-hole, 9,000m programme, is also expected to “continue subject to the receipt of satisfactory drill results”. To date, 6,119m of the programme has been completed.
- Results from the first six holes drilled to test the ‘Wide Formation’ at Carn Brea “confirm the … structure over a 1.6km strike length, a downdip extent of at least 525 metres and thicknesses ranging from 1.8 metres – 4.8 metres. The structure remains open”.
- The company explains that “Drilling also identified a new mineralised structure lying directly beneath the Great Flat Lode Splay, and several high-grade, steeply dipping tin zones between the Great Flat Lode and the Wide Formation. Notable tin intercepts from the newly identified Great Flat Lode Splay include 3.38 metres grading 1.01% Sn in CB23_002”.
- Cornish Metals also confirms that “the Company’s exploration programme at United Downs and evaluating other high potential, exploration targets within transport distance of the planned processing plant site at South Crofty” is likely to continue “Subject to the availability of financing”.
Conclusion: Cornish Metals continues to advance its plans for a possible resumption of tin mining at the historic South Crofty mine. With a mining history dating back to the 16th century, the discovery of mineralisation overlooked by previous generations of miners in the Carn Brea area helps to emphasise the continuing opportunities presented to Cornish Metals.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker. An SP Angel analyst formerly worked in the South Crofty tin mine in the 1980s and holds shares in Cornish Metals.
Glencore (GLEN LN) – 429p, Mkt cap £52bn –Halts operations at zinc mine on cyclone damage
- Glencore has suspended operations at its McArthur River zinc mine.
- A cyclone across northern Australia has seen flooding and landfall across the region.
- Rainfall has now exceeded record levels over the past 50 years.
- McArthur sits 970km south east of Darwin and is an open-pit mine and processing facility.
- McArthur was the primary contributor to Glencore’s 550kt zinc in concentrate production in 2023.
Rio Tinto (RIO LN) 5,040p, Mkt cap £87bn – Invests $350m in Rincon lithium plant in Argentina
- Rio Tinto report they are to invest $350m into the Rincon lithium plant in Salta, Argentina.
- The move comes despite comments that Rio would like to go back into Serbia for the Jadar lithium hard rock project.
- Rio Tinto bought the Rincon project for $825m shortly after being kicked out of Serbia by massive local protests organised against the mining project.
- Rincon is a DLE ‘Direct Lithium Extraction’ project designed to extract 3,000tpa of lithium carbonate from brines in the underlying salar.
- The project is around 3,600m above sea level in the Andes.
- While DLE has been shown to extract lithium in laboratories and pilot plants, no company has succeeded in building an economic, commercial-scale operation.
- Much as we respect the engineering expertise at Rio Tinto we wonder if there may be a case of the HS2s here with potentially optimistic views on the operation of a commercial DLE lithium carbonate project at around current price levels.
- Fortunately, Rincon is at 3,600m of elevation in the lithium triangle of the Andes so if the DLE does not quite work out as planned we reckon they could revert to using giant evaporation ponds and hoping it won’t rain for a few years.
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
DISCLAIMER
This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.
This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.
This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.
This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.
Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.
Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.
SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).
SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049. The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP. SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.
MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.
A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).
SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%
