Gold recovers after FOMC volatility as hawkish Powell cautions over sticky inflation
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – Placing and acquisition of strategic stake in Hydrogen Valley for its biofuels and industrial gas
Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Placing raises £6.57m for gold mine development in Zimbabwe and further exploration drilling in Botswana
Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – Moma Implementation Agreement Update
Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Simplified agreements with partner in the Empire open-pit project, Idaho
Champion Iron Ore (CIA CN) – Partnership with Nippon Steel and Sojitz for development of Kami project
Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) – Update on precious metals mill in Nevada
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – £1.25m raised in placing to fund further drilling at Pepas gold project, Colombia
Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – Chairman’s statement highlights 12-month progress
Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Commissioning of Coringa classification plant, Brazil
Gold ($2,620/oz) recovers after FOMC volatility as hawkish Powell cautions over sticky inflation
- Gold sold off sharply amid Powell’s Fed presser yesterday, sliding to $2,585/oz.
- The move tracked a sharp jump in the US Dollar, with the DXY index rising to November 2022 highs.
- This was supported by a sharply higher US 10 year yield, which has climbed to 4.54%, nearing March highs.
- The Fed cut by 25bp to 4.25-4.5%, with Hammack dissenting.
- The sharp uptick in yields reflects a less aggressive cutting forecast, with the dot plot showing fed funds expected at 3.9% by 2025-end vs 3.4% in September.
- Longer-run neutral interest rate moved to 3% vs 2.9% prior suggesting concerns over longer-term inflation expectations.
- Powell noted the ‘gradual’ softening in the labour market.
Metals sell off on stronger US dollar and sustained China concerns
- Copper broke through $9,000/t again, sliding to $8,900/t in the wake of the Fed meeting.
- The move followed higher US dollar and higher US interest rates, limiting buying capacity in Asia.
- The market continues to be disappointed by China’s Politburo, with Beijing failing to satisfy demand for ‘bazooka’ type stimulus.
- 2025 copper remains vulnerable to a restart of Cobre Panama, alongside continued ramp ups from QB2, Kamoa Kakula and Oyu Tolgoi.
- Conversely, grid spending continues to increase, and property sales and construction could inflect in China next year.
- TCRC charges are low, with major contracts for 2025 struck at $21/t, lowest on recent record.
- As a result, smelter capacity may reduce as unprofitable operations come offline, reducing short term concentrate demand but potentially boosting longer term supply deficits.
| Dow Jones Industrials | -2.58% | at | 42,327 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.69% | at | 38,814 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.56% | at | 19,753 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.36% | at | 3,370 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +0.2 | at | 4.52 |
Economics
China – PBoC ramps up currency support amid dollar rally following FOMC meeting
- Beijing ramped up currency support last night, after offshore Yuan quotes rose 0.2%.
- The dollar strength continues to weigh on China, as the yuan depreciates amid low Chinese rates as they soar in the US.
- The PBoC sets daily fixings around the 7.2 level, limiting onshore Yuan moves.
China banks raise mortgage costs
- Bloomberg reports China average mortgage rates for buyers’ first homes across 42 major cities rose to 3.08% in November from 3.05%.
- The move markets the first increase since October 2021.
- Property prices continue to fall whilst minor greenshoots are showing from sales ticking higher.
- Chinese banks are suffering from low interest rates, as the PBOC cuts rates to stimulate growth.
US – Fed cuts rates to by 25bp to 4.25-4.50%
- The Fed now expects rates to fall to 3.9% by end 2025 indicating just two 25bp rate cuts next year.
- Rates are forecast to fall to 3.4% in 2026 and to 3.1% in 2027 though there is much in the world that could change this progression.
Germany – Gfk consumer sentiment rises to -21.3 from -23.1
- The figures still reflect a hugely negative outlook for the German economy is it struggles to recover from the gas power crisis caused by the loss of cheap Russian gas from Nordstream.
UK – BoE likely to hold interest rates today due to jump in inflation
- Mortgage holders will suffer further if the BoE holds interest rates today.
- Sadly, recent government handouts to the unions appear to be raising inflation with 2.6% recorded in November vs 2.3% in October.
- Proposals to raise train fares and significant rises in water rates are not going to help lower inflation along with further handouts to public service workers. Thames Water looks set to raise water rates by an average 35% by 2029.
- Inflation is currently being suppressed by lower prices on Chinese imports. A weaker sterling could easily undo this benefit causing inflation to jump higher.
Zambia and Zimbabwe have been hit with severe power blackouts after Eskom in South Africa shutdown power due to a surge in the regional power grid
- The decision to cut off the SAPP ‘Southern African Power Pool’, the regional power network, was necessary to prevent “serious infrastructure damage” caused by the surge.
- The shutdown was the second in two weeks highlighting the weakness of the regional grid.
- The overcurrent surge was blamed on the fragility of the Zimbabwean grid through which Zambia’s ZESCO imports electricity from Eskom and Mozambique.
- Zambia is importing more power than normal due to low water levels in Lake Kariba limiting hydropower production to below 20% of capacity.
Currencies
US$1.0400/eur vs 1.0494/eur previous. Yen 156.83/$ vs 153.57/$. SAr 18.279/$ vs 18.081/$. $1.262/gbp vs $1.269/gbp. 0.624/aud vs 0.631/aud. CNY 7.299/$ vs 7.286/$.
Dollar Index 108.03 vs 107.01 previous
Precious metals:
Gold US$2,616/oz vs US$2,648/oz previous
Gold ETFs 82.7moz vs 82.6moz previous
Platinum US$929/oz vs US$935/oz previous
Palladium US$919/oz vs US$932/oz previous
Silver US$29.6/oz vs US$30.4/oz previous
Rhodium US$4,575/oz vs US$4,575/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$8,918/t vs US$8,984/t previous
Aluminium US$2,513/t vs US$2,535/t previous
Nickel US$15,265/t vs US$15,470/t previous
Zinc US$2,969/t vs US$3,001/t previous
Lead US$1,972/t vs US$1,972/t previous
Tin US$28,425/t vs US$29,055/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$72.8/bbl vs US$73.6/bbl previous
- Crude prices edged lower on Fed comments as the EIA reported US inventory draws of 0.4mb to crude and 3.2mb to diesel stocks, offset by a 2.3mb build to gasoline, with refinery utilisation down 0.6% w/w to 91.8%.
- Energy prices edged higher as EU natural gas storage levels fell by 3.8% w/w to 77.1% full (vs 80.1% 5-Yr average), with aggregate storage at 885TWh after large 8-9TWh draws in both Germany and France.
- Scatec announced financing for the 120MW Mmadinare solar project in Botswana and is preparing for construction start. The estimated $108m capex costs of the solar power plants that have a 25-year PPA with Botswana Power will be financed by $73m of FNB & IFC project debt, and the remainder by equity from Scatec.
Natural Gas €41.3/MWh vs €41.6/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $74.3/lb vs $74.5/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$104.4/t vs US$104.8/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$487.1/t vs US$487.4/t
HCC FOB Australia US$204.5/t vs US$204.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$129.2/t vs US$130.4/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$24,300/t vs US$24,300/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$55,009/t vs US$55,456/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,933/t vs US$10,021/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$790/t vs US$790/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$985/t vs US$985/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$338/mtu vs US$338/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$440/t vs US$440/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$26.3/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$294/t vs US$296/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,089/t vs US$1,091/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$292.5/t vs US$292.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$2,725.0/kg vs US$2,725.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$430.0/kg vs US$430.0/kg
Battery News
Europe EV sales down, but hybrids see growth in region
- Latest sales figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), showed a decline in EV sales for the region in November.
- Following slight growth in October, new EV sales were down 9.5% from November and 2% yoy in October, driven by sharp declines in France and Germany.
- Hybrids vehicle sales saw growth of 18.5% mom, showing growth for the third consecutive month.
- Tesla and SAIC Motor, who became subject to the new EU tariffs on Chinese-made cars, saw sales in Europe down 40.9% and 7.8% respectively.
CATL confirms co-development of ten EV models with swappable battery technology
- Chinese battery giant CATL has announced that it has co-developed 10 new EV models with automakers that will use its swappable battery technology.
- Yang Jun, CEO of CATL’s battery swapping brand EVOGO, said it would roll out the first EV that uses its so-called “choco-swap” battery this month.
- CATL will look to build 1,000 battery swapping stations next year and will look to accelerate by enlisting partners to build more stations.
- China could eventually have 30,000-40,000 battery swapping stations across the country which could replace a third of its roughly 100,000 gasoline station.
- CATL Chairman Robin Zeng said that he expected battery swapping to make up a third of power solutions for EVs alongside home and public chargers by 2030.
Company News
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -1.5% | -5.0% | Freeport-McMoRan | -4.7% | -10.0% |
| Rio Tinto | -0.9% | -5.4% | Vale | -4.9% | -11.1% |
| Glencore | -1.4% | -5.5% | Newmont Mining | -5.4% | -11.0% |
| Anglo American | -2.0% | -6.2% | Fortescue | -3.9% | -11.7% |
| Antofagasta | -2.1% | -5.8% | Teck Resources | -3.9% | -10.8% |
80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.28p, Mkt cap £6.4m – Placing and acquisition of strategic stake in Hydrogen Valley for its biofuels and industrial gas
(Bluejay Mining holds 100% of the Hammaslahti and Enonkoski projects and all its Greenland prospects)
- 80 Mile Plc has raised £1.5m at 0.27p/s through the issue of 557,258,228 new shares representing around 16% new shares. Directors are contributing £62,000 to the placing.
- The funds are to be used to acquire a 49% stake in Hydrogen Valley Limited for £2m in cash and ~29% in new 80 Mile plc shares. 80 Mile can move to 100% ownership for an aggregate consideration of £6.05m in cash and shares.
- The idea is to enhance 80 Mile’s biofuels and industrial gas capabilities and to become a vertically integrated exploration & production company for petrochemicals as well as industrial and natural gases.
- “The intention is that 80 Mile will establish a new industrial gas and petrochemical business unit, which will work to diversify the Company’s portfolio to include biofuels, sustainable aviation fuels, glycerine and green hydrogen.”
- Hydrogen Valley owns the Greenswitch biofuels and chemical production complex within a Special Economic Zone in Italy.
- The Greenswitch facilities include fully permitted plants suitable for biodiesel, epoxidized soybean oil and glycerine, with a capacity of up to 140,000 tonnes/year.
- The business is expected to generate revenues in Q1 2025 with production due grow and with expansion into Sustainable Aviation Fuels and hydrogen.
- The production could align with EU and Italian government initiatives with a applications for grant funding now underway.
- Offtake: “80 Mile expects to be able to finalise offtake agreements for 100% of the anticipated Greenswitch production.”
- Short and Medium Term Targets for Greenswitch:
- · Q1 2025: Restart ESO and biofuels production at expected initial capacities of 5,000 tonnes/year and 10,000 tonnes/year respectively.
- · Q2 2025: Aim to ramp up biodiesel production to 50,000 tons/year following maintenance and supply chain formalisation.
- · Secure approval of green hydrogen government grant of up to €10 million.
- · Initiate planning for a SAF plant in conjunction with an international offtaker, with the aim to secure EU energy transition grants to support this.
- The press release contains pictures of the process plant facilities in Italy showing the Glycerin distillation column and extraction plant, Epoxidized soybean oil storage and extraction facilities, onsite cogeneration and backup power, biofuel plant and distillation column and the finished product storage park and loading area.
- We look forward to further announcements on Hydrogen Valley, the Greenswitch facilities, its offtake and grant funding.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has visited Dundas in Greenland and the Hammaslahti and Enonkoski projects in Finland.
Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.70p, Mkt Cap £18m – Placing raises £6.57m for gold mine development in Zimbabwe and further exploration drilling in Botswana
- Kavango Resources report the raising of £6.566m via the placing of 938m new shares at 0.7p/s.
- The placing is subject to the approval of a prospectus by the FCA.
- Use of funds: Funds from the financing will be directed towards gold mine development at Hillside in Zimbabwe and towards exploration in Zimbabwe and Botswana as well as G&A.
- Hillside gold project (Zimbabwe): plans at Prospects 3 and 4 where management hope exploration will justify the development of the projects and start mining by end-2025.
- Management: Kavango have recruited a new mining engineer with experience in lode gold systems and will oversee the board’s strategy to move to mine development.
- Metallurgical test work at Hillside: gold process plant manufacturer to conduct initial metallurgical test work on ore samples taken from the project areas.
- The team recently reported multi-element assay results on core samples from Prospect 3 at Hillside which showed “potentially economic concentrations of tungsten and other strategic elements, including bismuth, selenium and molybdenum”.
- Prospect 3 intersections reported in November show:
- 1m @ 1.13g/t gold from a depth of 14m,
- 2m @ 1.21g/t gold from a depth of 6m,
- 1m @ 2.08g/t gold at 28m depth
- Botswana exploration: recent drilling gathered valuable data. This combined with the next phase of geophysics will guide the next phase of drilling in Q1 2025.
Conclusion: Kavango Resources will be assaying for a broader range of elements in its exploration at the Hillside and Nara projects to better understand the potential for economic by-products.
*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango
Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 313p, Mkt Cap £288m – Moma Implementation Agreement Update
- Kenmare has extended the timetable for the extension of their Implementation Agreement past 21st December 2024.
- The IA regards Kenmare’s mineral processing and export activities.
- Mining operations are conducted under a separate framework.
- The Agreement granted benefits for 20 years to 21st December 2024.
- Kenmare can continue processing minerals and exporting final products as per normal.
Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) 10.25p, Mkt Cap £30m – Simplified agreements with partner in the Empire open-pit project, Idaho
Phoenix holds 80% of the Empire mining property in Idaho)
- Yesterday afternoon, Phoenix Copper announced changes to agreements between its 80% owned Konnex Resources which manages the Empire open-pit project in Idaho and Canadian listed Exgen Resources which owns 20% of Konnex.
- The simplified agreement means that:
- “Phoenix will no longer be required to make an annual payment to ExGen, or meet a minimum required annual spend on the Project”; and
- “Phoenix will no longer need to provide ExGen with a bankable feasibility study before requiring ExGen to fund 20% of the Project’s construction costs”.
- In addition, yesterday’s announcement says that “Phoenix will no longer need to provide ExGen with a bankable feasibility study before requiring ExGen to fund 20% of the Project’s construction costs … [and reports the intention that] … the loan, plus interest, will be repaid to Phoenix from ExGen’s share of the Project’s future cash flows”
- Phoenix Copper will also “retain its Honolulu royalty and mining claims and Mackay royalty … [and any] … further royalties or mining claims that are acquired in the future, by either Phoenix or KPXH, will be offered for transfer to Konnex in accordance with the terms of the 2015 Agreement and this 2024 Amendment”.
- Commenting on the amended agreements with Exgen CEO, Ryan McDermott, said that they simplify “our relationship, and … [enable] … the construction of the Empire Open-Pit to be funded by one co-ordinated shareholder loan managed by Phoenix, rather than two shareholder loans on potentially different terms”.
Conclusion: Amended terms of its relationship with Exgen Resources should simplify the construction and development of the Empire open-pit project in Idaho and provide a more straightforward structure to the loans required to advance the project.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Phoenix Copper
Champion Iron Ore (CIA CN) C$5.1, Mkt Cap C$1.44bn – Partnership with Nippon Steel and Sojitz for development of Kami project
- Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel and Sojitz have entered an agreement for the joint development of the Kamistiatusset iron ore project in Canada.
- The two partners will contribute $245m to gain a 49% stake in the Project.
- If Champion and the Partners make a positive FID post-Feasibility Study, they will share development and construction costs.
- DFS expected to be completed mid-2026 and construction expected over 48 months following FID.
- Kami is expected to produce 9mtpa of 67.5% Fe concentrate over 25 years.
- CAPEX expected at $3,864m and NPV of $2.2bn at 14.8% IRR using previous three years P65 index price.
Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) 0.017p, Mkt Cap £1.4m – Update on precious metals mill in Nevada
- Great Western, who are currently commissioning a precious metal processing mill in JV in Nevada, provides an update.
- The JV is due to commence pilot production from 16th January, after a visit from the Nevada State Inspector of Mines.
- This will enable trial processing through the mill.
- Regarding GWM’s copper exploration, progress continues with their large-scale porphyry district around the Huntoon valley, and the Company is in discussions for an acreage pooling agreement.
- The Company has also staked tungsten claims contiguous to current licences, with a widespread exploration programme due 2025.
*SP Angel act as Broker to Great Western Mining, an SP Angel Analyst has visited Great Western’s Nevada claim blocks.
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 8.1p, Mkt Cap £21m – £1.25m raised in placing to fund further drilling at Pepas gold project, Colombia
(Anzá 100% indirect ownership proposed)
- Orosur has raised gross proceeds of £1.25m via the placing of 18.9m new common shares.
- The placing was conducted at a price of 6.6p/share.
- The funds will add to the Company’s current cash balance of c£397k before the placing.
- Additionally, the Company has issued 1.9m broker warrants, expiring December 2029, at 6.6p/share.
- Use of Funds:
- Orosur will use the funds to extend their drilling programme at Pepas, which has shown strong gold intercepts over the recent campaign.
Conclusion: Orosur raised funds to deliver high-grade gold intercepts over wide lengths from surface. The programme has highlighted Orosur’s ability to move quickly and return assays within weeks. We see this as one of the most exciting gold exploration stories in London currently. There remain numerous questions that need answering with Pepas before step-out drilling begins. Hole 15 should provide some further insight into the orientation and nature of mineralisation. The Company has identified a clearly defined basement fault which provides a marker for the trend.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining
Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 4.2p Mkt Cap £92m – Chairman’s statement highlights 12-month progress
BUY – 18.1p
- The Company’s Chair, Rick Anton, released a statement this morning.
- It highlights the progression of the Barroso Lithium Project, having secured AMG Critical Materials as a strategic partner.
- Additionally, Savannah has gained backing from the German Government for up to US$270m in debt financing.
- The Company continues to enjoy support from Portuguese entrepreneurs, Mario Ferreira and Grupo Lusiaves, who now own c.20% of the share register.
- EV sales reported at 15.2m between January and November, up 25%yoy.
- Importantly, Savannah has been granted temporary access to enable drilling, with a 13,000m programme planned to support the DFS progression.
- Cash position reported at £18.3m at November-end.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources
Serabi Gold (SRB LN) 122p, Mkt Cap £93m – Commissioning of Coringa classification plant, Brazil
- Serabi has now commissioned the classification plant at its Coringa Gold Operation.
- The Plant is set to support the Phase 1 growth strategy of boosting annual production to 60kozpa by 2026.
- Q4 reportedly benefiting from improved grades at Palito.
- Phase 2 now the focus, with aims to boost the resource at Palito and Coringa to support annual production of 100koz.
- Cash position expected at $21m by year end.
- 30,000m of drilling planned in 2025 using $8m budget.
*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil
LSE Group Starmine awards for Q3 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Previous Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q3 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q3 2024
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
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35-39 Maddox Street London
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
DISCLAIMER
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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return
