SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 17th April 2025

Copper edges lower as BHP CEO warns of rising economic risks from tariffs

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Allied Gold (AAUC CN) – Equity placement and block trade as Orion sells down

BHP (BHP LN) – Risk of global economic slowdown overshadows record 9-month copper and iron ore output

Eurasia Mining* (EUA LN) – Operational and corporate update

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – Press reports comment

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) – US Presidential Executive Order emphasises support for domestic mining industry

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – Production data and extension of takeover deadline

Metals One (MET1 LN) – Corporate and Strategic Update

Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) – Production slides on cost cutting

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Drilling to begin at Omani copper project following successful geophysics

Copper ($9,145/t) edges lower as BHP CEO warns of rising economic risks from tariffs

• Copper has cooled from its recent rebound, having touched $9,268/t following a sell-off down to $8,550/t.
• The metal is under pressure from concerns of slowing global growth, often seen as a barometer of wider GDP sentiment.
• Whilst US demand is not a primary demand driver for copper, the impact of >100% tariffs on China and heightened levies on South Korea and Japan may hit growth drivers.
• Mike Henry warned that China’s ability to ramp up domestic consumption may be limited by Trump’s tariffs, which could have a ‘significant’ impact.

Gold ($3,325/oz) settles near all time highs as Powell hints at potential stagflation

• Gold rallied sharply yesterday, climbing $100/oz to hit $3,357/oz.
• The move has followed continuous geopolitical tensions between the US and China, as Trump looks to hit the economy.
• China also enabled higher import quotas for local insurance companies this week, as Beijing supports a continued diversification of the economy.
• Powell noted in his speech yesterday that ‘the whole plan is not to have stagflation, so we don’t have to deal with it,’ as inflation remains above target and labour continues to show signs of weakness.
• The 1970s staglfationary environment saw gold prices rally from $77/oz to $678/oz, supported by the end of the gold standard in 1971.

Economics

Currencies

US$1.1371/eur vs 1.1380/eur previous. Yen 142.69/$ vs 142.18/$. SAr 18.863/$ vs 18.937/$. $1.324/gbp vs $1.328/gbp. 0.635/aud vs  0.636/aud. CNY 7.301/$ vs 7.323/$.

Dollar Index 99.577 vs 99.433 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,324/oz vs US$3,296/oz previous

Gold ETFs 89.3moz vs 89.2moz previous

Platinum US$965/oz vs US$960/oz previous

Palladium US$954/oz vs US$973/oz previous

Silver US$32.5/oz vs US$32.9/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,425/oz vs US$5,425/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,174/t vs US$9,061/t previous

Aluminium US$2,385/t vs US$2,357/t previous

Nickel US$15,745/t vs US$15,410/t previous

Zinc US$2,590/t vs US$2,577/t previous

Lead US$1,906/t vs US$1,897/t previous

Tin US$31,220/t vs US$30,520/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$66.3/bbl vs US$64.2/bbl previous

Natural Gas €35.7/MWh vs €34.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $65.1/lb vs $64.7/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (China CFR) US$99.5/t vs US$99.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.9/t vs US$465.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$182.5/t vs US$181.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$98.0/t vs US$101.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$58,353/t vs US$58,718/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,547/t vs US$9,518/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$800/t vs US$805/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$358/mtu vs US$358/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.1/kg vs US$24.1/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$284/t vs US$283/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,513/t vs US$1,506/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Battery News

Company News

 Allied Gold (AAUC CN)C$5.8, Mkt cap C$1.9bn – Equity placement and block trade as Orion sells down

• Allied, who have gold operations across Africa, reports a C$80m bought deal.
• The underwriters have agreed to purchase 15m common shares at C$5.35/share (c.7% discount to yesterday’s close)
• Net proceeds of the offering to fund growth initiatives, including engineering studies to boost recoveries at Sadiola, increase mine life in Cote D’Ivoire and exploration work across its asset base.
• Additionally, Allied are entering into a block trade with a significant shareholder, likely Orion Resource Partners, to sell 15m common shares at the offering price in a block trade.
• Orion acquired 38m shares of Allied in 2023.

BHP (BHP LN) 1,752p, Mkt Cap £89bn – Risk of global economic slowdown overshadows record 9-month copper and iron ore output

• Reporting operating results for the 9 months to 31^st March, CEO, Mike Henry, described a 10% rise in copper output to a record 1.5mt and also described record iron ore output of 188mt from the Western Australian operations with an additional 4mt from the Brazilian iron-ore operations of Samarco.
• Mr. Henry said that the imposition of tariffs would have a “limited direct impact” on BHP, he commented that “the implication of slower economic growth and a fragmented trading environment could be more significant”.
• He pointed out that “China’s ability to shift toward a consumption-led economy and for trade flows to adapt to the new environment will be key to sustaining the global outlook”.
• Operationally, a 20% rise in copper output from Escondida to 978,000t was aided by increased grades (1.055% vs 0.85%) as well as “higher concentrator throughput … partially offset by planned lower cathode production, as the integration of the Full SaL leaching project continued”.
• Copper output elsewhere declined by 3% at Pampa Norte (to 194,000t) and in the South Australian operations (4% lower at 224,000t) following “the weather-related power outage in Q2 … [although] … Carrapateena is achieving higher productivity from the sub-level cave enabled by Crusher 2, delivering record mine and concentrator performance”.
• Full year group copper production guidance is maintained in the range 1,845,000-2,045,000t.
• Western Australia’s iron ore output “increased as a result of continued strong supply chain performance, with record volumes delivered from the Central Pilbara hub (South Flank and Mining Area C) following the completion of the ramp up of South Flank in FY24”.
• The company explains that the strong operational iron-ore performance was “partially offset by the impact of Tropical Cyclone Zelia and Tropical Storm Sean, and the planned increase in tie-in activity of the multi-year Rail Technology Programme”.
• Full FY production guidance for the West Australian iron ore operations remains intact “at between 250 and 260 Mt (282 and 294 Mt on a 100% basis)”.
• At Samarco, “production continues to increase following the restart of the second concentrator in December … [and] … Production guidance for FY25 remains unchanged at between 5 and 5.5 Mt, with production expected to be at the upper end of the range”.
• Mr. Henry explained that “At BMA in Queensland, in the highest rainfall wet season in more than a decade, steelmaking coal volumes rose by 5% following a strong performance across the open cut mines” although today’s announcement makes clear that this excludes “the contribution of Blackwater and Daunia in FY24”.
• At the Broadmeadow mine, “we are operating at slower mining rates to safely manage the geotechnical characteristics of the current longwall panel” and the company expects that reduced mining rates will “continue into Q1 FY26”.
• Steelmaking coal production guidance for FY 2025 “remains unchanged at between 16.5 and 19 Mt (33 and 38 Mt on a 100% basis) … [although] … Following the impact of significant wet weather and geotechnical challenges at Broadmeadow, production is now no longer guided to the upper half of the range and unit costs for FY25 are now expected to be between US$128/t and US$133/t”.
• BHP confirms its intention to “review the decision to temporarily suspend … [operations at its Western Australian Nickel operations, taken in July 2024] … by February 2027”.
• Mr. Henry also highlighted BHP’s recent achievement in reaching “40% female representation across our global employee base, a 23 point increase since 2016 … [which, he said] … have made BHP a safer, more productive, and better performing business … [and given BHP] … a distinctive competitive advantage in responding to labour and skills shortages across our sector”.

Conclusion: Following record FYTD performance from its copper and WA iron operations, BHP is maintaining its full year production guidance across its product groups although it highlights the risk of lower global economic growth as the world adjusts to the impact of tariffs.

Eurasia Mining* (EUA LN) 4.2, Mkt Cap £122m – Operational and corporate update

• Dual listing on the Astana International Exchange in Kazakhstan is nearing completion.
• Trading expected to commence 2Q25.
• Russian assets disposal process is ongoing with the Company reiterating its commitment for an eventual sale.
• Portfolio includes the West Kytlim operating mine, the Monchetundra Project mining license, the NKT brownfield project and the entitlement to the Nyud brownfield project.
• The team carries limited onsite activities maintaining assets in good standing and ready for a potential transaction.
• Funding wise, the Company has sufficient working capital to continue operations until at least 2H26 following a £3.15m raise in March.
• The Company is hosting a live webinar today at 12pm BST.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Eurasia Mining

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 1.2p, Mkt Cap £11m – Press reports comment

• The Company reports the recently passed Ghana Gold Board Act will not affect mining leaseholders such as Goldstone.
• The team is not expecting any impact on operations or the Company from new regulations.
• The Act that was passed on 29 March 2025 granted exclusive authority to buy, sell and export gold produced by the artisanal and small-scale miners to a new state body, the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod).
• New regulation is seen to affect only ASM sector, locally called “galamsey”.
• GoldBod warned that “it shall constitute a punishable offence for a person to purchase or deal in gold in the country without a licence issued by the new board”.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Goldstone Resources

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) 39.5p, Mkt Cap £50m – US Presidential Executive Order emphasises support for domestic mining industry

Power Metals Resources* (POW LN) 13p, Mkt cap £15m – (Power Metals* holds a 19.5% stake in Guardian Metal Resources)

• Guardian Metal Resources draws attention to the US Presidential Executive Order ‘Ensuring National Security and Economic Resilience Through Section 232 Actions on Processed Critical Minerals and Derivative Products’ signed on 15th April.
• The company says that the Order “highlights the vulnerabilities in the current supply chain, particularly the dependence on foreign sources, for minerals essential to defence, energy, and advanced manufacturing sectors”.
• Guardian Metals Resources sees the measures in the Order as supportive of its “long-term strategic plan of developing a secure, domestic supply chain of tungsten in the U.S.”
• CEO, Oliver Friesen, said that the company’s “Nevada-based tungsten projects are uniquely positioned to contribute significantly to this national objective”.
• Tungsten is among the commodities classed as ‘critical’ in the US and other jurisdictions “owing to its use in high-strength applications such as defence, aerospace, mining, and high-performance industrial manufacturing”.

Conclusion: Guardian Metal Resources’ Nevada tungsten projects may attract increasing attention as the US Government encourages support for domestic mining to secure supply chains for critical minerals.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metals

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 432p, Mkt Cap £385m– Production data and extension of takeover deadline

• Mozambique mineral sands producer Kenmare report excavated ore from Moma at 9.34mt at 4.22% grade, down 10% and 15% respectively vs the prior quarter.
• Ilmenite production down 28% to 404.ktqoq but down 1%yoy.
• Zircon production down 5%qoq at 14kt but up 69%yoy.
• Rutile production down 14%qoq at 2.5kt but up 67%yoy.
• Co-production production reflects drawdown from intermediate stockpiles and improved recoveries.
• Higher slimes hit recoveries at WCP A and mining changes at WCP B also affected
• Shipments up yoy on marine operation performance.
• Wet Concentrate Plant A upgrade project due for commissioning in 3Q25, in line with expectations.
• Kenmare reports a strong order book for 2025.
• On track to meet 2025 guidance ‘on all metrics’ with ilmenite production expected to strengthen on improving weather conditions.
• Market outlook
  • Titanium metal market reportedly ‘thriving’
  • Additional beneficiation capacity supporting ilmenite demand
  • Two new long-term contracts signed this year as new market players enter
  • Market ‘moderately oversupplied’ on new supply from concentrate producers, which negatively impacted prices – now stabilising
  • Zircon market subdued on new supply whilst producers limit their output to balance the market
• PUSU Deadline Extension
  • Kenmare is in talks with Oryx Global Partners who made a non-binding proposal for an all-cash offer for Kenmare.
  • The Company has agreed to extend the current deadline of April 17^th to May 15^th to allow for ongoing discussions.
  • This will either see Oryx announce a firm intention to make an offer or not.

Metals One (MET1 LN) 22p, Mkt Cap £8m – Corporate and Strategic Update

• The Company released a strategic update regarding its portfolio of strategic minerals projects in Finland and Norway.
• As announced earlier, the Company is acquiring Hammaslahti and Outokumpu base metals projects from 80 Mile.
• At the Hammaslahti Copper-Zinc Project, Finland, the team will drill test extensions to the VMS mineralisation.
• 2023 diamond drilling intersected sulphide mineralisation in all eight holes with one occurrence at only 75m depth.
• At the Outokumpu Copper Project, Finland, the team is planning a geophysics programme in preparation for drilling.
• The license covers most of the northeast-southwest trending Outokumpu Copper Belt which has produced numerous high-grade mines.
• Six drill-ready targets have been identified which have good potential for high-grade copper along strike from former operating mines
• At the Black Schist Nickel Copper Cobalt Zinc Project, Finland, the team is planning to apply for Strategic Project Status under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act.
• The project is located on Kainuu Schist let next to Europe’s largest operating nickel mine, Terrafame’s Talvivaara.
• The project hosts 57mt at 0.18% Ni, 0.09% Cu, 0.01% Co and 0.35% Zn in total resource (all Inferred).
• At the Rana Nickel Project, Norway, Kingsrose Mining is farming for up to 75% over 8y spending up to A$15m (currently at 51% after 5,000m of drilling).
• The Company raised £3.1m earlier this month.
• Proceeds to be directed towards development of its current copper and nickel projects as well as potential acquisitions with a focus on copper, uranium, defence minerals and gold.
• The Company is reviewing projects within Europe, North America and Australasia with new acquisitions to likely come in the form of earn in arrangements or direct equity funding.
• Craig Moulton has been appointed as Independent Non Executive Chairman replacing Alastair Clayton.
• Craig is a geologist and mineral economist with over 30 years’ experience in the sector having previously worked Rio Tinto and Cleveland Cliffs.
• He has previously served as Managing Director of ASX-listed NickelSearch and LSE-listed Cobra Resources.
• Olga Solovieva is expected to join the Board shortly replacing Thomas Levin as Non Executive Director.
• Olga is an experienced geologist with a direct knowledge of the Finland copper assets given her role as Senior Geologist with the vendor of the projects.

Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) A$1.43, Mkt Cap A$4.6bn– Production slides on cost cutting

• Pilbara reports production volumes at 125kt SC5.3, down 34%qoq after Ngungaju placed on care and maintenance and impact from the Tropical Cyclone Zelia.
• Realised price up 7% at $747/t, unit FOB costs at $430/t, up 6% and 10% in Australian dollar terms.
• Unit operating costs up 5% on a CIF basis at $499/t.
• Revenue down to A$150m on lower sales volumes.
• Cash balance fell 9% to A$1.1bn on CAPEX for P1000 project.
• Cash margin from operations at A$39m.
• Company conducting an exploration programme at their Colina project in Brazil, acquired from Latin Resources, with expected results mid-2026.
• Reaffirmed guidance and focusing on cost reduction and optimisation amid weak lithium market.

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 13.8p, Mkt cap £16m – Drilling to begin at Omani copper project following successful geophysics

• Power Metals report results form their geophysics programme over the Al Mansur base metals project in Oman.
• POW is currently undertaking a detailed exploration programme to delineate drill targets at their Block 8 exploraiton concession, where they are earning in.
• The survey has identified five high-priority gravity anomalies, with H1 showing the strongest potential.
• The H1 anomaly is believed to be prospective for massive sulphide mineralisation and a potential copper deposit.
• The H1 anomaly covers 400m in length and 10-15m in width, holding potential for a VMS system.
• Going forward, POW is now extending the gravity survey grid to the north, alongside using ionic leach soil sampling.
• Historic drilling data showed previous holes (without mineralisation) were drilled to the east of the H1 target.
• Power Metals now expects to, upon approval, begin drilling within the coming weeks following the successful trenching and geophysics programmes.

Conclusion: Power Metals are approaching their exploration tenure in Oman methodically and systematically, conducting the necessary ground-based exploration to delineate drill targets. This has generated a high-priority target in H1, which holds prospectivity for a copper-bearing VMS system. The Company is set to begin drilling in the coming weeks, which marks an exciting milestone for their Omani ventures.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metal Resources

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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