SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 4th November 2024

Copper climbs as China PMIs improve sentiment and Codelco output slides again

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo American (AAL LN) – US$1.1bn sale of steel-making coal interest to JV partner

Aura Energy* (AURA LN) – Appointment of Mauritania Country Manager

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – Vanchem sale completed

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Metallurgical testing results

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) – Corporate governance update

NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) – C$177m raised for phase 3 exploration programme

SolGold* (SOLG LN) – Progress with Cascabel feasibility study as geotechnical work commences

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Drilling starts at Mukai Copper Project, Zambia

Copper ($9,688/t) climbs as China PMIs improve sentiment and Codelco output slides again

• Copper prices have climbed alongside base metals.
• The price has been supported as China PMIs surprised to the upside.
• The National People’s Congress Standing Committee is set to meet this week, with traders likely hoping for further stimulus measures to support metals demand.
• China new home sales from 100 large developers rose 7.1%yoy in October, vs sliding 38% in September.
• Codelco continues to suffer from sliding output, with September quarter production down 5%yoy.
• Meanwhile iron ore has been weak, with elevated inventories sitting at 29-month highs as Brazil and Australia continues to boost supply.

Gold ($2,743/oz) holds lower despite weak labour data as focus stays on Election

• Gold has held lower levels after selling off towards the end of last week.
• Momentum trades were likely exhausted following the substantial rally ytd, with gold up 33%.
• Non-Farm Payroll data came in well below expectations, pushing gold up initially as yields fell.
• This then reversed, with US Treasuries selling off and the 10-year climbing to 4.4%.
• Gold has traditionally been pressured by higher yields.
• Despite higher yields, the dollar has weakened since Friday, with traders positioning for the US Election this week.
• Concerns over a Trump win may be pushing up US borrowing costs, with some suggesting Trump’s economic policies more inflationary that the Democrats’.

Lithium – ioneer sued by environmental and indigenous groups over Rhyolite Ridge lithium mine in US

• Ioneer which recently gained environmental approval for its new lithium mine in Nevada is being sued to stop the mine from going ahead (Mining.com).
• The groups claim the mine will impact groundwater, springs, wetlands, air quality, cultural resources and wildlife habits and would transform a remote part of rural Nevada into an industrial Complex.
• They go on to claim the mine will crush rare plant habitats which are critical to their survival.
• Rhyolite Ridge is a lithium clay ore project with a valuable boron co-product. Ore is crushed and sized for vat leaching with sulphuric acid using a counter-current configuration for three days.
• Test work shows high lithium and boron recoveries at around 60C with moderate free-acidity levels.
• Evaporation and crystallisation concentrates the lithium removing sulphate salts and other impurities with the liquor pumped to a four-stage evaporator circuit to remove 70% of the water and to concentrate the lithium.
• This concentrates the lithium to a high-level suitable for the lithium carbonate circuit replacing the evaporation ponds normally required in brine operations.

Economics

US – Weekend polls lifted chances of Kamala Harris taking Republican leaning Iowa state with odds of her winning the race rallying.

• Treasury yields pulled back with US$ trading lower this morning.
• Market expectations are for Trump administration tax cuts and more import tariffs to deepen the federal deficit and fuel inflation.
• Latest polls confirm a close nature of the race with 75m people reported to have already voted out of estimated ~190m registered to vote.
• Nine states are said to have seen more than 50% of eligible voters already voted.
• All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 seats in the Senate are also being contested.
• Republicans currently hold a majority in the House with Democrats controlling the Senate, albeit, by slim margins.
• Polls indicate that the two parties could switch control of each chamber.
• NFPs released late last week came in heavily below estimates with previous month’s reading revised downwards as well.
• Numbers are likely to have been affected by weather disruptions with the Bureau of Laboor Statistics saying that the survey collection rate was “well below average”.
• Inflation sentiment gauge released later in the day showed a pick up in October.
• Expectations remain for the Fed to proceed with a 25bp cut this week (almost fully priced in) with a likely another 25bp move in December.
• NFPs (Oct/Sep/Est): 12k/223k(revised from 254k)/100k
• Unemployment Rate (Oct/Sep/Est): 4.1/4.1/4.1
• Av hourly Earnings (%mom, Oct/Sep/Est): 0.4/0.3(revised from 0.4)/0.3
• Av hourly Earnings (%yoy, Oct/Sep/Est): 4.0/3.9(revised from 4.0)/4.0

China – Lawmakers are starting a week long meeting today that will include discussions on the nation’s largest fiscal package since the pandemic.

• Authorities are yet to indicate the size of the stimulus with analysts suggesting China may need to sped up to CNY 10tn over three years.
• Local news agency said that the National People’s Congress standing committee may announce its decision on Friday evening with details to follow later that day.

UK Budget fallout – Moody’s warns on weak economic growth in the UK following the budget with just 1.7% growth from 2025-2027

Ryanair plans to cut 10% of flights to and from the UK following the autumn Budget

• Ryanair is unhappy at the decision to increase the cost of short-haul airline tickets saying it has damaged UK growth prospects and made air travel much more expensive.
• The reduction could result in potentially 5m fewer passengers travelling through UK airports. Private jet passengers are also hit with a 50% rise in duty.

Carmageddon as Judge crashes car market with ruling that slams breaks on car finance deals

• A judge has thrown automotive lenders into shock with finance deals put on hold while they work out new procedures for commission declarations and their potential liability.
• The Court of Appeal ruled in favour of three customers saying ‘a broker could not lawfully receive a commission from a lender without obtaining the customer’s fully informed consent to the payment’.
• So dealers can not receive commission for finance without customers knowing full details. The result:
  • BMW has stopped offering finance
  • Honda has changed its terms
  • Stellantis stopped commission payments to remain on the right side of the law
  • VW continues to finance for now
• Other lenders including, Honda, MotoNovo, Secure Trust Bank, Northridge, Zopa, Investec, Blue Motor Finance and Close Brothers have all paused payments for automotive finance.

Conclusion: The automotive industry was already concerned as consumers delay purchases waiting to see new Chinese and South Korean EV imports. Any interruption to sales now could prove devastating for an industry which needs to reinvest in new EV models and production lines to compete with Cheaper Asian rivals.

If the UK ruling on auto finance spreads into Europe and the US the situation could disrupt global GDP

Spain – Flood death toll looks set to rise well over 200

• It was good to see an army of Spanish volunteers cleaning up flood-affected towns and villages in the Valencia region.
• Another storm is expected to the north of Valencia later today but will hopefully remain offshore.

Moldova – Incumbent President Maia Sandu secured a win in a second-round presidential race run off on Sunday.

• That puts the pro-EU leader on track for her second term.

Currencies

US$1.0893/eur vs 1.0859/eur previous. Yen 152.02/$ vs 152.63/$. SAr 17.536/$ vs 17.656/$. $1.297/gbp vs $1.291/gbp. 0.659/aud vs 0.656/aud. CNY 7.099/$ vs 7.125/$.

Dollar Index 103.76 vs 104.11 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,738/oz vs US$2,754/oz previous

Gold ETFs 84.0moz vs 84.0moz previous

Platinum US$1,001/oz vs US$996/oz previous

Palladium US$1,111/oz vs US$1,113/oz previous

Silver US$32.7/oz vs US$32.8/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,675/oz vs US$4,675/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,688/t vs US$9,553/t previous

Aluminium US$2,627/t vs US$2,630/t previous

Nickel US$15,985/t vs US$16,030/t previous

Zinc US$3,073/t vs US$3,032/t previous

Lead US$2,050/t vs US$2,063/t previous

Tin US$32,200/t vs US$31,365/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$74.6/bbl vs US$74.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices started the week higher following the decision by OPEC+ to postpone the start of a planned roll-back of voluntary output cuts by a further month into January 2025.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count was unchanged at 585 units last week (-33 or 5% y/y), with oil rigs down 1 to 479 units (-17 y/y) and gas rigs up 1 to 102 units (-16 y/y), with Texas losing 2 units to 281 rigs (-23 y/y).
• Media reports Gunvor’s Chairman seeing potential for opportunistic acquisitions as oil prices decline and place upstream players under greater funding pressures, pointing to an ability to tap debt to finance potential deals.

Natural Gas €39.6/MWh vs €39.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $78.4/lb vs $79.7/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$104.1/t vs US$104.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$537.2/t vs US$536.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$206.5/t vs US$206.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$144.5/t vs US$145.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$24,300/t vs US$24,300/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$59,656/t vs US$59,439/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,001/t vs US$9,895/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$750/t vs US$750/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$985/t vs US$985/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$340/mtu vs US$340/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$440/t vs US$440/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 4.6/lb vs US$4.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 24.55/kg vs US$24.55/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$315/t vs US$314/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,190/t vs US$1,214/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$62.6/t vs US$62.6/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$277.5/t vs US$280.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,875.0/kg vs US$2,875.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$450.0/kg vs US$455.0/kg

Battery News

BYD sells record 500,000 NEVs in October

• The company sold 502,657 new energy vehicles (NEVs) in October, surpassing the 500,000 mark for the first time and the fifth consecutive month of record highs.
• Sales were up 66.5% from 301,833 in the same period last year and up 19.8% from 419,426 in September.
• BYD has increased its production capacity by almost 200,000 units between August and October.

Nio to sell first hybrid car, overseas only

• Chinese EV maker Nio is set to launch its first hybrid model in 2026, but will not sell it in in the domestic Chinese market
• To date, Nio has only manufactured pure EVs, but is looking to make the shift to hybrids to address the difficulties it has experienced selling EVs in international markets.
• Development of the extended range hybrid will occur under the Firefly brand, following advice from the companies main investor CYVN Holdings.
• According to people familiar with the matter, the hybrid car will be launched in late 2026, with sales beginning in 2027.

Volvo sees global sales for October up 3% yoy

• Volvo Cars’ sales rose 3% yoy in October, driven primarily by an increase in sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid models in Europe.
• European sales were up 21% yoy to 30,167 cars, whilst US saw a 17% decline and sales in China was down 10%.
• Sales of full EVs and plug-in hybrids were up 40% globally accounting for 484% of vehicles sold in the month.

Company News

Anglo American (AAL LN) 2,420.5p, Mkt Cap £32bn – US$1.1bn sale of steel-making coal interest to JV partner

• Anglo American reports that it has agreed to sell its 33.3% interest in the Jellinbah East and Lake Vermont steelmaking coal mines in Australia to one of its JV partners, Zashvin, for A$1.6bn (~US$1.1bn) in cash.
• “Zashvin is an existing 33.3% shareholder in Jellinbah alongside Anglo American and Marubeni” in a JV holding a 70% stake in the mines which are not operated by Anglo American which also is not involved in product marketing.
• Welcoming the sale of its minority interest to Zahvin, Anglo American’s CEO, Duncan Wanblad, confirmed that Anglo American “is now at an advanced stage” in the process of selling the balance of its steelmaking coal business in Australia.
• Subject to the completion of due-diligence and documents, the transaction “is expected to complete in the second quarter of 2025”.
• Mr. Wanblad confirmed that simplification of Anglo American’s businesses was making good progress with a focus on “world-class copper, premium iron ore and crop nutrients assets … [including annual copper production of] … more than one million tonnes by the early 2030’s.”

Conclusion: Disposal of Australian steelmaking coal assets to a partner in the project fits in with the acceleration of a broader strategy to focus on copper, iron ore and fertiliser minerals following the overtures from BHP earlier this year

Aura Energy* (AURA LN) 7.70p, Mkt Cap £68m – Appointment of Mauritania Country Manager

(Aura Energy holds 85% of Tiris Resources which holds the Tiris Uranium Project in Mauritanian and 100% of the Häggån Project in Sweden, Häggån hosts 2.5bnt of vanadium, SOP ‘sulphate of potash’ and uranium resource)

• Aura Energy report the appointment of Mr Mohamed El Moctar Mohamed El Hacene as Country Manager of Tiris Resources SA in Mauritania.
• Mr. Hacene served as General Manager of External Relations for Rio Tinto’s Simandou iron ore project in Guinea from 2011 to 2014.
• He has formerly served as the Minister of Petroleum and Mines in Mauritania from 2007 to 2008 when Aura first discovered uranium at Tiris and provided consultancy to companies in Mauritania, including SNIM, Woodside, Paladin Energy, and General Gold, as well as to the World Bank and the African Development Bank.
• Moctar has also served as a Director, Economic Development and Integration Division, Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (‘ESCWA’) at the UN based in Lebanon.
• Hacene has a BA from the École Normale Supérieure in Mauritania, a Master of Science in Mineral Economics from the WA School of Mines at Curtin University in Australia, and he began a Ph.D. in Political Science at Université de Grenoble in France.
• Moctar is a key appointment in driving the development of the Tiris Uranium Project into Mauritania’s first uranium mine.

FEED study economics updated for new contract pricing:

• • NPV@8% = US$388m
  • IRR 36%
  • AISC US$ 34.5/lb
  • Payback 2.5 year pay-back
  • Assumes U3O8 price of US$ 80/lb
  • Ore grade: 255ppm U3O8
  • Concentrate grade: 1,743ppm of U3O8
  • Production: 2m lbs pa of U₃O₈.
  • Life of Mine : 17 years
  • Capex : US$230m
  • Offtake contract: 150,000lbs pa U₃O₈ under fixed price terms averaging US$74.75/lb U₃O₈ and 150,000lbs U₃O₈ per annum at spot less 4% discount over 7 years.
    • Offtake contracted volumes 2.1mlbsover 7-year term.
• Total mineral resource at Tiris host 91.3m lbs of contained U₃O₈.
• Current ore reserves total 40.3mt at an average grade of 254ppm U₃O_8, inc.
  • Proven Reserves of 19.3mt averaging 257ppm U₃O₈
  • Probable Reserves of 21.3mt at an average grade of 251ppm U₃O_8.
  • Discovery cost of US$0.14/lb”.

Conclusion:  Mr. Hacene is highly experienced in dealing with international mining companies and their projects. His time in the ministry along with his work at Simandou and at the UN mission in Lebanon should serve the company well.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Aura Energy

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) 0.5p, Mkt Cap £10m – Vanchem sale completed

• The Company announced last Friday that the Competition Tribunal approved the Vanchem disposal deal.
• All conditions relating to the deal have now been met with final agreements entered into on 31 October.
• The transaction is expected to be effective Thursday this week.

Conclusion: Completion of the deal is positive news allowing the Company to set off working capital loans owed to SPR against deal proceeds, secure deferred payments ($15-20m) as well as potentially receiving funds from the Mokopane disposal ($3.7m). The transaction also allows the team to focus on streamlining operations at Vametco, although, vanadium prices that remain stubbornly low remain a significant headwind for the business.

*SP Angel act as nomad and broker to Bushveld Minerals

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 1.25p, Mkt cap £8.7m – Metallurgical testing results

• Cobra Resources reports that bench scale testing has been completed and confirmed the suitability of the Boland rare-earths project in the Eyre Peninsula of South Australia to use low impact ISR (in-situ-recovery) techniques.
• The test work has shown improved recovery rates with total rare-earth oxide (TREO) rates rising from 50% to 56% and recovery of the more valuable magnet rare-earth oxides (MREO) increasing from 48% to 57%.
• The tests also showed low levels of both deleterious elements and acid consumption.
• Further metallurgical testing, including assessment of techniques to remove impurities, is underway to assist with flowsheet design with results expected in- weeks.
• CEO, Rupert Verco, explained that Cobra Resources aims to “demonstrate a simple, low-cost process for impurity removal to produce a high-purity product, well weighted with heavy rare earths of crucial importance to modern technology and the global energy transition”.

Conclusion: Bench-scale testing has produced improved rare-earth recovery rates.  Continuing work is concentrating on the elimination of impurities.

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) A$37, Mkt Cap A$7.2bn – Corporate governance update

• The Company completed its review process in the view of latest corporate governance issues.
• The Board identified a range of issues and shortcomings that demanded a strong and comprehensive governance response.
• Chris Ellison will be leaving his role as Managing Director in an orderly transition period within next 12-18 months.
• Additionally, Ellison will be liable for A$8.8m in Board imposed financial penalties and loss of remuneration of up to A$9.6m.
• James McClements who currently acts as Independent Non Executive Chairman will be stepping down from the Board once a suitable successor is found but no later than next year’s AGM.
• The stock is trading 10% lower today.

NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) C$11.6 Mkt Cap C$2.2bn – C$177m raised for phase 3 exploration programme

• Lundin-backed NGEx Minerals raised $C$176.9m in an upsized placement.
• The placing was raised at C$11/shr.
• The funds will be used for the Phase 3 drill programme at Lunahuasi
• Phase 3 will consist of 20,000m of drilling, including long-range exploration holes, 50-300m step out holes and infill drilling at 30-50m spacing.
• Results are expected to start coming through this quarter.

SolGold* (SOLG LN) 8.2p, Mkt Cap £248m – Progress with Cascabel feasibility study as geotechnical work commences

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• SolGold reports the start of geotechnical work as it advances its Cascabel copper/gold project in Ecuador.
• The company describes the geotechnical studies as “an important milestone in the advancement of one of the world’s premier copper-gold projects”, which is working towards an investment decision and feasibility study, due in 2025, following the updating of its pre-feasibility level study earlier this year,
• Development of the core 540mt reserve, which is part of a significantly larger 3.2bt resource is expected to start at a 12mtpa mining rate, doubling to 24mtpa after six years to produce an average of 123,000tpa of copper, 277,000ozpa of gold and 794,000ozpa of silver over an initial 28 years life.
• The geotechnical programme “includes both geotechnical drilling and refraction seismic assessments to gather important information on ground conditions and subsurface characteristics, contributing to a refined understanding of the site’s geotechnical framework” and will include analysis of “mineralization or alteration be encountered” to ensure that access to potentially mineable mineralisation is not sterilised by the siting of mine infrastructure.
• The existing prefeasibility study, released in March, describes an underground block-caving operation with an initial 28-year mine life generating an after-tax NPV8% of US$3.2bn and IRR of 24% from an initial pre-production investment of US$1.55bn.
• Today’s announcement describes how Solgold is also “also exploring early-stage open-cut development of the Tandayama-Ameríca … [located around 3km north of the Alpala deposit within the Cascabel project area] … deposit to bring the Cascabel Project’s copper-gold production forward by several years”.
• In May 2022, Solgold reported a ‘Measured and Indicated’ resource of ~529mt at an average grade of 0.24% copper and 0.19g/t gold for the Tandayama America deposit which includes an additional ‘Inferred’ resource of ~105mt at an average grade of 0.24% copper and 0.18g/t gold.
• Today’s announcement also describes how “in recent months, SolGold has progressed multiple aspects of the project, including permitting and infrastructure planning, while strengthening relationships with local and national stakeholders”.

Conclusion: Starting the detailed geotechnical assessment at Cascabel contributes to the forthcoming feasibility study due in 2025 and should help to ensure that siting of the mine development does not sterilise economic mineralisation.  Solgold is also assessing the opportunity to advance first production through the possible open-pit development of the nearby Tandayama America deposit.

*SP Angel acts as broker to Solgold

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.07p, Mkt Cap £2.6m – Drilling starts at Mukai Copper Project, Zambia

• Tertiary provides an update on its JV with First Quantum Minerals in Zambia, where drilling has started.
• The Company has gained consent from the Department of Forestry and the Musele Chiefdom to start drilling.
• The maiden programme will comprise six diamond drill holes over 350-400m depth.
• The licence package holds a copper-in-soil anomaly that lies over the Mukai/FQM licence border.
• First Quantum will be able to earn into the project once a minimum resource of 80kt has been defined.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

No.1 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q1 2024

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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