SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 4th July 2025

Gold shrugs off strong jobs report as Big Beautiful Bill passes and Chinese mining sentiment improves

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) – Steady operational progress as hedge-book paid down

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) – GreenRoc presses ahead with graphite bulk sample for pilot precursor feed material

Ivanhoe Atlantic (Private) (formerly HPX ‘High Power Exploration’) – Expected to sign a CAA with the Government of Liberia today

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Correction on gold sales in Zimbabwe

Marimaca Copper (MARI CN) – Drilling results from Pampa Medina, Chile show high-grade sedimentary system

Gold ($3,342/oz) shrugs off strong jobs report as Big Beautiful Bill passes and Chinese mining sentiment improves

• Gold prices shrugged off a stronger-than-expected NFP reading yesterday, having rallied on weak ADP data.
• US Treasury yields have come down from their 2025 highs and are sitting c.4.3% on the 10 year.
• Meanwhile the dollar remains weak, having fallen c.11% ytd, supporting precious metal buying.
• Chinese buying has been a major driver in the 2024/2025 gold bull run, and it seems this sentiment is now supporting mining equities.
• Zijin is set to spin out its gold mining unit on the HK stock exchange, expected to raise over $1bn.
• Chifeng Jilong raised c.$700m recently, and Shandong (China’s second largest gold miner) is also expected to issue equity for c.$500m. (Bloomberg)
• Chifeng told Bloomberg that ‘there are more Chinese deals to come,’ with focus on Africa, Latin America and Central/Southeast Asia.
• Chifeng holds the Wassa Gold mine in Ghana, acquired from Golden Star, and the Sepon gold mine in Laos, alongside several domestic operations.
• Shandong acquired Osino’s Twin Hills project in Namibia in 2024, Cardinal’s Namdini Project in 2020 and holds a stake in Veladero in Argentina with Barrick.
• CMOC recently closed their acquisition of the Ecuadorian gold project Cangrejos.
• Zijin has been aggressively expanding its asset base, buying Akyem from Newmont in October 2024 and the RG Gold Mine in Kazakhstan from a consortium of PE funds.
• Elsewhere, Zijin has taken stakes in the Bankan gold project in Guinea and the Kone gold project in CDI alongside the Lundin Family.
• Chinese miners are reportedly diversifying their asset bases as a result of declining grades and limited greenfield discoveries in China.
• Chinese companies are constrained from acquiring assets with shares, with Western shareholders less enthusiastic to take HK/Shanghai-listed equity.
• The PBoC boosted gold holdings in each of the seven months to May.

Conclusion: Chinese gold miners continue to raise cash in the Hong Kong equity markets. We expect this to support a sustained buying spree of Western development-ready gold projects across Africa, Asia and South America.

Gold & online misinformation about Basel III (LBMA)

https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/gold-and-hqla-correcting-misleading-online-information

• There have been inaccurate reports online that gold will be reclassified as Tier 1 HQLA (High Quality Liquid Asset) under Basel III as of July 1, 2025.
• This information is not correct; no official announcement has been made or is expected on gold gaining HQLA status.
• See LBMA link for a fuller description on the reclassification of gold and where the misunderstanding comes in.

Russia – Russia looks poised to nationalise assets owned by Konstantin Strukov and his family including his stake in Yuzhuralzoloto PJSC, a major gold miner.

• Strukov is suspected of illegally controlling the assets while holding public office, in violation of Russian law, and security forces have raided Yuzhuralzoloto’s headquarters (Bloomberg).

Trade IG: Trading Experiences with Angeline Ong: Talk starts 2:16 into the video: 

Currencies

US$1.1777/eur vs 1.1805/eur previous. Yen 144.38/$ vs 143.82/$. SAr 17.569/$ vs 17.516/$. $1.366/gbp vs $1.366/gbp. 0.658/aud vs 0.658/aud. CNY 7.162/$ vs 7.162/$

Dollar Index 96.96 vs 96.88 previous

Precious Metals

Gold US$3,343/oz vs US$3,355/oz previous

Gold ETFs 90.5moz vs 90.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,389/oz vs US$1,416/oz previous

Palladium US$1,144/oz vs US$1,155/oz previous

Silver US$37.0/oz vs US$36.9/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,475/oz vs US$5,500/oz previous

Base Metals

Copper US$9,840/t vs US$10,001/t previous

Aluminium US$2,602/t vs US$2,603/t previous

Nickel US$15,351/t vs US$15,360/t previous

Zinc US$2,741/t vs US$2,746/t previous

Lead US$2,062/t vs US$2,070/t previous

Tin US$33,821/t vs US$33,645/t previous

Energy

Oil US$68.2/bbl vs US$68.4/bbl previous

• Global energy prices edged lower ahead of today’s US holiday for the July 4^th Independence Day and Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting to consider the further rollback of prior voluntary cuts.
• US Henry Hub natural gas prices fell as the EIA reported a larger-than-expected 55bcf w/w build to 2,953bcf (+49bcf exp), with storage inventories 5.6% below last year and 6.2% above the 5-year average.

Natural Gas €33.9/MWh vs €33.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $77.7/lb vs $77.6/lb previous

Bulk

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$101.8/t vs US$101.6/t previous

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$459.0/t vs US$458.4/t

HCC FOB Australia US$179.3/t vs US$175.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$114.0/t vs US$113.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$62,064/t vs US$62,020/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,657/t vs US$8,511/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$640/t vs US$630/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$428/mtu vs US$428/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$290/t vs US$290/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,096/t vs US$1,095/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Company News

Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) A$9.4, Mkt cap A$4bn – Steady operational progress as hedge-book paid down

• Capricorn, who operate the Karlawinda gold project in Australia, report quarterly results.
• Company mined 4.5mt over the period, milling 1.1mt at 0.99g/t Au and 91.4% recoveries for 32.2koz.
• Production rose qoq from 30.6koz on increased throughput.
• Company retains guidance of 110-120koz for FY25 and AISC of A$1,370-1,470/oz.
• Cash and gold at A$356m, down qoq from A$405m following CAPEX and A$100m of hedge book closure and debt repayments.
• Capricorn is aiming to bring the 2.6moz Mt Gibson project into production
  • Targeting 150kozpa at AISC of A$1,650-1,750/oz
  • 17 year LOM with A$260m 5mtpa plant.
  • NPV5 of A$1.95bn at US$2,150/oz gold price.

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) 2.60p, Mkt Cap £7.0m – GreenRoc presses ahead with graphite bulk sample for pilot precursor feed material

• GreenRoc reports on this year’s field program the Amitsoq Graphite Project in southern Greenland.
• The company also notes the 35-day public consultation, part of the application process for an Exploitation Licence for Amitsoq, closed last week.
• HK Transport, a local contractor, is to collect a 15-20t bulk sample of graphite ore from the underground ‘Lower Graphite Layer’ ore body at the historic Amitsoq mine.
• The bulk sample should help with the evaluation of:
  • rock mechanics and processing flow sheet work,
  • ore for processing into graphite concentrate for use in the planned graphite anode materials pilot plant.
• Other work:
• Geologists will assess other areas of known graphite mineralisation outside of the Amitsoq project area along with the potential for other critical raw materials.
• EIA: BioAPP, will continue the baseline studies for the EIA. Samples will be taken to support final EIA work in 2026.
• Exploitation Licence application: Hearing replies have been received enabling the team to write up a White Book to present to the Greenland Government for the final part of the application of the Exploitation Licence.
• Amitsoq Active Anode Materials PFS (11 July 2024):
  • NPV of US$621m vs $545m – post tax
  • IRR 26.5% vs 25.3%
  • Capex $340m vs $321m
  • Opex $1,872/t vs $2,211/t
  • Production 80,000tpa of concentrate – remains the same
  • Production 39,700tpa active anode material – remains the same
  • Includes: onsite production of de-ionised water and construction of a plant for the production of nitrogen.

Conclusion:  We are impressed by the methodical progress being made by GreenRoc. The bulk sample should be collected and shipped in September/ October and we look forward to further results from the processing of the graphite bulk sample into graphite concentrate later this year. The Amitsoq graphite concentrate is needed for GreenRoc’s planned pilot processing plant to produce active anode material for Li-ion batteries and will be an important step forward for the company and for Europe’s critical mineral strategy.

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 1.1p, Mkt Cap £34m – Correction on gold sales in Zimbabwe

• We have been corrected by a surprising number of people on the matter of gold sales in Zimbabwe.
• Some miners receive 90% of the gold price from Fidelity Refiners in Zimbabwe. This appears to include the 5% government royalty.
• We are told small-scale gold miners who produce around 1,000-2,000ozpa are paid 100% in forex, eg US dollars.
• Other large scale gold miner receives 100% of the gold price, pay the government 5% royalty and are paid 70% in US dollars and 30% in ZiG, the Zimbabwe currency and not the 60:40 split which we published on Tuesday. There may also be other charges.
• We suspect some other miners might also see different arrangements.
• Please, do feel free to let us know if there are any further updates / variations on the royalty and payment regime in Zimbabwe or any other equally beautiful country.

*Two SP Angel Analysts recently visited Kavango’s Hillside mines and licenses in Zimbabwe. An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Kavango

Ivanhoe Atlantic (Private) (formerly HPX ‘High Power Exploration’) – Expected to sign a CAA with the Government of Liberia today

• Ivanhoe Atlantic is expected to sign a CAA ‘Concession and Access Agreement’ with the Government of Liberia today.
• The long awaited agreement is seen as critical for the operation of Liberia’s multi-user rail policy and opening up the operation of new iron ore mines along the rail line from from Guinea to Liberia.
• The signing of the agreement will take place at the NIC with the IMCC ‘Inter-Ministerial Concessions Committee’ representing the Liberian government.

Marimaca Copper (MARI CN) C$9.1, Mkt cap C$968m – Drilling results from Pampa Medina, Chile show high-grade sedimentary system

• Marimaca Copper, who hold the Chilean Marimaca Oxide Deposit, report drilling from their Pampa Medina project.
• Pampa Medina is a greenfield copper project 28km to the east of MOD.
• Drilling has identified a flat-lying, sediment hosted system.
• Highlights include:
  • Hole SMRD-13: 6m at 12% from 594m within 26m of 4.1% Cu from 580 and 100m of 1.3% Cu from 580m.
  • Hole SMD-02: 40m of 2.1% Cu from 282m within 132m of 1% Cu from 278m
  • Hole SMD-01: 68m at 1.2% Cu including 20m at 2.3% Cu from 298m and 22m at 1.7% Cu from 602m
  • Hole SMRD-12: 56m at 1.4% Cu from 566m
  • Hole SMR-01: 56m at 2.1% Cu including 18m at 5% Cu from 296m within 102m of 1.2% Cu from 250m
• The Company suggests that drilling outlines a primary sedimentary manto over c.70m of >1% Cu over 600m x 1000m.
• Sedimentary units noted to be flat-lying with a gentle easterly dip and gentle northerly plunge.
• Pampa seen to be supported by infrastructure, with surrounding mines including Antucoya, Spence, Mantos Blancos, Sierra Gorda.
• Marimaca has added a second diamond drill rig on site and has approved a 14 hole follow-up programme to target extensions.
• Marimaca will pause the PEA as it assesses the drill results and future development.
• MOD DFS due for completion imminently.
• Marimaca’s major shareholders:
  • Greenstone 25%
  • Assore 15%
  • Ithaki 9.5%
  • Mitsubishi 4.6%
• The MOD project:
  • M&I resource of 155mt at 0.53% Cu
  • Targeting construction 2Q26
  • Sees low strip, heap leach operation
  • 2020 PEA saw CAPEX of US$285m for an operation producing 36ktpa over 12 years for NPV8 of US$524m and IRR of 34% at US$3.15/lb Cu.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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