SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 3rd October 2025

Copper rises on China AI push as supply tightens following MIIT statement and Grasberg mud rush

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Trinity Metals (Private) – First shipment of tungsten from Rwanda arrives in US

USA Rare Earths – Acquiring Less Common Metals (private), a REE metal and alloys producer.

Vault Minerals (VAU AU) – 1Q26 production as hedge book rolls off

Copper ($10,585/t) continues to rise as supply situation deteriorates following Grasberg disaster

• Copper prices have now risen 6% following the mud rush incident at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
• This followed a wave of supply disruptions in 2025, with Kamoa Kakula, El Teniente, Constancia and QB2 all facing operational setbacks.
• Teck is set to provide updated QB2 guidance this month, followed a ramp-up impacted by drainage issues and waste management struggles.
• Chilean copper output fell 10% in August yoy to 424kt, marking the sharpest drop in two years.
• Codelco cut guidance for 2025 following an accident at El Teniente in July.
• On the demand side, there are rumours China is set to increase its AI capex spend at the upcoming Plenum on October 20^th.
• China said to be preparing for a massive push into AI as part of their next 5-year plan
• Anti-Involution coming to copper in China

• • MIIT China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported they would slow domestic non-ferrous metal supply to 1.5% from 5%.
• Deficit forecasts for 2026 currently being increased to 160kt-350kt.

Gold ($3,860/oz) consolidates higher as investors play catch-up and government shutdown continues

• Gold prices have rallied 3% over the past week, and are now up 45% over the past year.
• The metal is being supported by:

• • Sustained central bank buying, led by China
  • Weaker US dollar on concerns over Trump policy
  • Lower US Treasury yields on slowing labour market
  • Rising ETF inflows

• The rise in ETF inflows has been the latest primary driver in gold prices.
• ETF holdings have climbed over 97moz as retail and investment funds begin boosting their allocations to the metal.
• ETF holdings were largely unchanged during the initial stages of the gold bull market last year, as investors focused on the AI narrative and the dollar remained strong.
• Gold is also being supported by the ongoing US government shutdown, which has delayed the publication of US NFP labour data.
• The shutdown also highlights increasing concerns over US deficit levels, which, alongside many G7 countries, are considered unsustainable by many.

Iron ore edges higher following suspension at Simandou on fatalities

• Iron ore prices are on the move again, after Winning Corp suspended operations at Kerouane, on the Simandou deposit.
• Chinese-backed Winning is developing half of the Simandou deposit.
• The Company has suspended operations following the deaths of three foreign employees, Bloomberg reports.
• Both Winning and the Rio/Chinalco JV are set to export first iron ore shipments from Simandou in November.
• Simandou is set to boost global iron ore production by 5% when they hit ramp up targets of 120mtpa.
• No guidance was given on shipments from Winning.
• Rio suspended operations in August after a worker died.
• Elsewhere, BNEF highlights the slower-than-expected roll-out of green steel capacity, with less than 20% proposed currently commissioned.
• However, iron ore majors are struggling with grade quality and impurities, with Rio required to build five additional Pilbara mines to 2030.
• BHP continues to battle China’s iron ore buying group CMRG, who asked Chinese buyers to suspend purchases from BHP.
• China is keen to force settlement of iron ore in RMB vs USD as part of their drive for de-dollarisation
• The pricing dispute comes as China’s security of supply improves from Simandou.

US government offering to take stakes in Australian critical minerals companies in an effort to build out ex-China supply chains.

• Among critical minerals are lithium, cobalt, and rare earths essential for batteries, renewables, semiconductors, defence and robotics among other sectors.
• The announcement follows a visit by 15 Australian critical minerals companies into Washington and New York meeting senior officials last month.
• Among officials present were head of the US National Security Council (David Copley) and representative of the International Trade Administration for critical minerals (Joshua Kroon).
• Funding considered include all sort of options including debt, equity, offtakes etc.

USA Rare Earths (USAR US, $2.2bn Mkt Cap) Acquiring Less Common Metals (private), a REE metal and alloys producer

• USAR is paying $100m in cash and 6.74m in shares for LCM.
• Total consideration amounts to ~$220m (at pre deal~$17.5 share price).
• LCM runs the only proven ex-China operation producing both light and heavy rare earth permanent magnet metals and alloys at scale based in Cheshire, UK.
• LCM is a midstream part of the permanent magnet chain using separated REE oxides (mined or recycled) to produce magnet metals and alloys that are used by permanent magnet manufacturers.
• Metals and alloys produced include Samarium, Samarium Cobalt, Neodymium Praseodymium, Dysprosium, Terbium, Yttrium, Gadolinium, and other critical rare earth metals and metal alloys.
• USAR secured $125m from an existing shareholder (at $15/share) that along with existing cash balance to fund its growth strategy.
• USA Rare Earths was up ~30% post the announcement adding >$450m to the market.

Conclusion: The deal reflects the race by Western developers to establish ex-China supply chains in critical minerals, particularly in rare earth permanent magnets where China maintains overwhelming dominance. Companies with an established commercial process vital to the chain are increasingly either supported by government (DOD/MP) or pursued as M&A targets. A clear read-across is to Mkango Resources* (MKA LN), which is commercialising patented HPMS rare earth recycling technology—positioning itself as another strategically important REE supply chain player that could attract similar strategic or financial interest.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Mkango Resources

Economics

US – No signs of ending the shutdown soon.

• No NFPs this afternoon.
• Nevertheless, S&P and Nasdaq are trading at new all time highs helped by AI driven craze and rising expectations for the Fed to continue with its cutting cycle.

CPC Plenum to discuss China’s 15th Five-Year Plan in October which will take it from 2026 through 2030

• The five-year plan is a cornerstone of Chinese policy and will focus on long-term planning, economic, social and governance.
• 2025 will likely discuss:

• • US and EU Tariffs
  • A substantial 29% fall in foreign investment into China
  • Export diversification and expansion.
  • Support for SMEs and the private sector which is a major employer, particularly in the service sectors
  • Greater control of industrial planning and activity from the centre
  • Clamp down on illegal drug manufacturing and better control smuggling.
  • Technology development – eg development of Chinese AI semiconductors
  • AI expansion – massive push into AI as part of their next 5-year plan
  • Anti-Involution as a policy to potentially takeover from the ‘Dual Circulation’ policy previously trialled

• • • Anti-involution involves the rationalisation, optimisation and streamlining of production to raise profits across highly-competitive sectors
    • Target sectors so far:
    • EVs, Solar panels, lithium mining and other non-ferrous metals with greater CPC control of mining and refining through examination of permits and operations.

• • Belt & Road expansion
  • Export permit for control of Rare Earths and Critical materials (See Rare Earth export permitting regime)
  • Slowing of domestic non-ferrous metal supply from 5% to 1.5% as reported by MIIT

• Tariffs: we continue to await a settlement of the tariff negotiations by US and Chinese negotiators.
• The last Politburo meeting in July saw ”efforts must also be made to “assist small and micro-sized enterprises,”
• To assist “foreign trade enterprises facing significant shocks, optimizing export tax rebate policies, and building high-level pilot free trade zones and other platforms for opening-up,”
• We await further news with a potential announcement if Trump and Xi meet at the APEC summit in South Korea at end October.

Conclusion: China’s policymakers are tackling challenges on many fronts. Western policymakers would do well to follow their policies and strategy.

Japan – The yen is off following after BOJ Governor avoided clear signals over a rate hike in his speech on Friday.

• Kazuo Ueda kept his policy options open ahead of the meeting planned for later this month.
• “If the baseline scenario for economic activity and prices outlined so far is realized, the bank, in accordance with improvement in economic activity and prices, will continue to raise the policy interest rate,” Ueda said.

EU – Risk of conflict rising with interception of Russian shadow fleet tanker by French

• French marines have intercepted and detained personnel on a Russian shadow fleet ship which may have launched drones over Denmark.
• A ship of this size could potentially carry 10,000 drones, each capable of overwhelming the air defences and disabling every radar and fighter jet in all European nations.
• Imagine a fleet of similar ships, each capable of disabling the air defences and military aircraft across Europe in a single, coordinated strike.
• Russia lost many of its long-range bombers in a similar, coordinated, drone strike from containers driven into Russia by Ukraine.
• All it takes is one or two drones with small explosive device targeted in the right place to destroy a fighter aircraft.

Currencies

US$1.1729/eur vs 1.1753/eur previous. Yen 147.49/$ vs 147.08/$. SAr 17.248/$ vs 17.196/$. $1.345/gbp vs $1.350/gbp. 0.661/aud vs 0.662/aud. CNY 7.121/$ vs 7.121/$.

Dollar Index 97.81 vs 97.60 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,863/oz vs US$3,873/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.2moz vs 97.2moz previous

Platinum US$1,578/oz vs US$1,579/oz previous

Palladium US$1,260/oz vs US$1,273/oz previous

Silver US$47.4/oz vs US$47.5/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,075/oz vs US$7,100/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,567/t vs US$10,459/t previous

Aluminium US$2,697/t vs US$2,711/t previous

Nickel US$15,395/t vs US$15,245/t previous

Zinc US$3,024/t vs US$3,015/t previous

Lead US$2,028/t vs US$2,023/t previous

Tin US$37,580/t vs US$36,215/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$64.7/bbl vs US$65.4/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices fell to their lowest levels since the start of the Summer ahead this weekend’s monthly OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to agree on restoring part of the ~1.5mb/d idled voluntarily by the eight members of the group.
• European energy prices edged lower as EU natural gas storage levels rose 2.8% w/w to 84.8% full (vs 89.6% 5-Yr average) with aggregate inventory at 940TWh and all countries’ gas storage levels now above 70% full.
• US Henry Hub natural gas prices were stable as the EIA reported a 53bcf w/w build to 3,561bcf, with storage inventories 0.6% above last year’s level and 5.0% above the 5-year average.
• Eni and its partners CNPC, ENH, Kogas, and XRG have sanctioned the $7.2bn Final Investment Decision to develop the 3.6mtpa Coral North FLNG project located offshore Mozambique, with first delivery targeted in 2028.
• Black Bayou Energy Hub’ proposed 34.7bcf salt dome natural gas storage development took a further step towards FID this week after announcing the receipt of a FERC Certificate and $50m structured capital commitment from Mercuria. The project is designed to flow up to 2bcf/d and inject up to 1.6bcf/d, providing rapid cycling capabilities in LNG-alley.
• GCG of China has broken ground on Ethiopia first oil refinery, the $2.5bn Gode project with capacity to refine domestic crude oil and condensate from the Hilala fields to produce ~80kb/d of fuel. The development adds to a separate $2.5bn fertiliser plant that is also under construction, which will be fueled by gas from the nearby Calub fields.

Henry Hub Gas US$3.42/mmBtu vs US$3.44/mmBtu yesterday

Natural Gas €31.3/MWh vs €31.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $80.9/lb vs $83.1/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.0/t vs US$103.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$449.1/t vs US$449.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$190.0/t vs US$190.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$107.0/t vs US$107.6/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$35,000/t vs US$35,000/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,917/t vs US$78,917/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,012/t vs US$10,012/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$830/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$593/mtu vs US$593/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Tesla posts record quarterly sales as US EV tax credit expires

• Tesla delivered 497,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, up 100,000 from Q2 and 7% yoy.
• Wall Street had forecast 440,000, but the automaker beat expectations by 57,000, driven by the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit on 30th September.
• Production totaled 447,000 units, down 22,000 vs Q3 2024.
• Sales are expected to slow in Q4 with the expiry of the tax credits.

Company news

Trinity Metals (Rwanda) – First shipment of tungsten from Rwanda arrives in US

(Trinity Metals was created through the merger of three privately held Rwandan companies, including Piran Rwanda Ltd and Rutongo Mines, to consolidate mining operations for critical minerals and is supported by TechMet through equity investment.

• Trinity Metals reports its first shipment of tungsten concentrate their Nyakabingo mine in Rwanda
• The concentrate arrived this week at Global Tungsten and Powders’ plant in the US with the support of Traxys.
• While Rwanda is known for tin and tantalum nation’s miners are said not to have mined tungsten since 2015.
• The group has three historic mines, Nyakabingo tungsten mine, Rutongo tin Mine and Musha tin and tantalum mine
• Trinity also reports the discovery of the Ntunga Lithium deposit at its Musha concession.
• Nyakabingo is the first operating mine in Africa to secure technical assistance funding from the US DFC.

Vault Minerals (VAU AU) A$0.68 Mkt Cap A$4.6bn – 1Q26 production as hedge book rolls off

• Australian gold producer Vault Minerals reports preliminary production data.
• The Company sold 91.5koz broken down by:

• • Leonora: 46.5koz
  • Mount Monger: 22.3koz
  • Deflector: 22.7koz and 110t Cu
• Company reiterates FY26 guidance of 332-360koz.
• Company reports a no debt and A$703m in cash and bullion.
• Company delivered 34.4koz into the hedge book at an average price of A$2,949/oz.
• Vault is aiming to extinguish the hedge book, which is set to step down ‘materially’ in FY2H26.
• Company aiming to produce 370-400koz from FY28.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.