REE prices march higher amid persistent security of supply concerns in the West
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Barrick Mining (B US) US$25.5, Mkt Cap $444bn – ADB to lend up to $410m to develop Reqo Diq
Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) – Progress of Orom Cross DFS work programmes
Resolute Mining (RSG LN) – Higher gold prices help deliver 81% rise in H1 EBITDA
US government will start stockpiling cobalt for the first time in decades.
- The US Defence Logistics Agency is seeking offers for up to 7,500t of cobalt over the next five years.
- The contract is worth up to $500m.
- Battery manufacturers have been reducing the use of cobalt due to its high cost, although, cobalt based alloys are crucial for a range of applications in military systems.
- Cobalt is used in munitions and jet engines while the metal is also critical for making magnets used in flaps, landing gear and the flight control surface on an airplane.
- DLA has been a seller of cobalt for years amid budget cuts in the 1990s and 2000s reducing Cold War stockpiles.
- The decision marks a shift in government outlook on security of supply of metals critical to the defence sector.
The News Forum – The Buck Stops Here: https://www.thenewsforum.ca/series/thebuckstopshere
IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A: https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.34% | at | 44,786 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.05% | at | 42,633 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.94% | at | 25,340 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +1.45% | at | 3,826 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +0.4 | at | 4.33 |
Economics
US – Markets are expecting Jerome Powell to point to a rate cut next month in his speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
- The speech scheduled for 10am New York time.
- Odds of a cut pulled back somewhat following hawkish comments from other Fed officials and mixed economic data.
- Chances of a 25bp reduction is now around 70%.
The DOJ official informed Jerome Powell of the probe and investigation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook and encouraged him to remove her.
- “At this time, I encourage you to remove Ms. Cook from your Board,” Ed Martin, a Justice Department official who led similar investigations into Senator Adam Schiff of California and New York Attorney General Letitia James.
- “Do it today before it is too late! After all, no American thinks it is appropriate that she serve during this time with a cloud hanging over her.”
Flash PMIs climbed strongly in August with stronger expansion recorded both in manufacturing and services sectors.
- Hiring also picked up reaching one of the highest rates in the past three years.
- On the downside, inflation accelerated to the steepest increase in average selling prices also in the last three years.
- Tariffs were widely cited as the principal cause of higher costs.
- “The data are consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.5% annualized rate, up from the average 1.3% expansion seen over the first two quarters of the year,” the report read.
- ““The resulting rise in selling prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months… Indeed, combined with the upturn in business activity and hiring, the rise in prices signaled by the survey puts the PMI data more into rate hiking, rather than cutting, territory.”
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 53.3/49.8/49.7
- Flash Services PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 55.4/55.7/54.2
- Flash Composite PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 55.4/55.1/53.5
Nvidia pulls orders with its component suppliers related to the H20 AI chips after Beijing urges local companies to stop using those on security concerns.
- The Company only recently secured US approvals for shipments of chips in China.
- Nvidia and AMD were allowed to export to China on condition that the US government is paid a 15% cut of the related revenues.
Walmart highlights inflationary pressures as US tariffs drive the cost base higher.
- The retailer held down prices helped by available stocks but warned that further replenishing of inventories to be done at higher cost.
- Nearly a third of Walmart’s US goods is imported from countries including China, Mexico, Vietnam and India,
- “The way things have played out so far, the impact of tariffs has been gradual enough that any behavioural adjustments by the customer have been somewhat muted,” Walmart CEO said.
- ““But as we replenish inventory at post-tariff price levels, we’ve continued to see our costs increase each week, which we expect will continue into the third and fourth quarters.”
Germany – GDP contracted more than initially estimated last quarter on weaker industrial production.
- The economy fell 0.3%qoq, down from 0.1% estimated previously.
- Investments were also a big drag falling 1.4%.
- Private consumption provided less support than previously thought.
Currencies
US$1.1598/eur vs 1.1659/eur previous. Yen 148.56/$ vs 147.58/$. SAr 17.691/$ vs 17.740/$. $1.341/gbp vs $1.346/gbp. 0.643/aud vs 0.642/aud. CNY 7.182/$ vs 7.178/$.
Dollar Index 98.76 vs 98.25 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$3,327/oz vs US$3,341/oz previous
Gold ETFs 92.4moz vs 92.5moz previous
Platinum US$1,348/oz vs US$1,333/oz previous
Palladium US$1,116/oz vs US$1,110/oz previous
Silver US$38.0/oz vs US$37.9/oz previous
Rhodium US$7,475/oz vs US$7,525/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$9,725/t vs US$9,690/t previous
Aluminium US$2,588/t vs US$2,573/t previous
Nickel US$14,930/t vs US$14,980/t previous
Zinc US$2,783/t vs US$2,769/t previous
Lead US$1,978/t vs US$1,970/t previous
Tin US$33,480/t vs US$33,700/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$67.9/bbl vs US$67.4/bbl previous
Natural Gas €33.6/MWh vs €32.3/MWh previous
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices rose as the EIA reported a small 13bcf w/w build to 3,199bcf, with storage inventories 2.9% below last year and 5.8% above the 5-year average and LNG pipeline deliveries falling 1.3bcf/d w/w to 15.5bcf/d.
Uranium Futures $73.3/lb vs $73.2/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$109.9/t vs US$110.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$481.8/t vs US$482.1/t
HCC FOB Australia US$189.3/t vs US$189.8/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$111.0/t vs US$111.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$87,998/t vs US$87,078/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$11,348/t vs US$11,703/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$990/t vs US$1,020/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$503/mtu vs US$503/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.5/kg vs US$23.4/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$268/t vs US$268/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,093/t vs US$1,094/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg
EV & battery news
Joby completes first piloted eVTOL flight between two US public airports
- Joby Aviation has achieved its first piloted eVTOL flight between two public US airports, flying from Marina to Monterey in California.
- The 12-minute, approximately 10‑nautical‑mile flight included a 5‑minute holding pattern to sequence with conventional air traffic.
- The test demonstrated vertical take-off, wingborne transition, integration into FAA‑controlled airspace, and vertical landing—key steps toward FAA certification.
- Joby has begun final assembly of aircraft for formal FAA evaluation; pilot testing with FAA officials is planned for early 2026.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.1% | 0.1% | Freeport-McMoRan | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| Rio Tinto | -1.1% | -2.0% | Vale | 0.9% | -1.0% |
| Glencore | -0.6% | -3.1% | Newmont Mining | 1.6% | 2.4% |
| Anglo American | -0.6% | -0.1% | Fortescue | -1.1% | -1.7% |
| Antofagasta | -0.2% | 0.4% | Teck Resources | 1.9% | -0.9% |
Company news
Barrick Mining (B US) US$25.5, Mkt Cap $444bn – ADB to lend up to $410m to develop Reqo Diq
- The Asian Development Bank will provide a US$410 funding package for the Reqo Diq Copper Gold Project, Pakistan. (Mining.com)
- The package includes two loans for $300m to Barrick and a $110m financing guarantee for the government of Pakistan.
- The funding forms part of a broader $6.6m development plan.
- The Project is 50% owned by Barrick with the balance held by the federal and provincial governments.
- The mine is expected to come online 2028.
Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) 4.1p, Mkt Cap £14m – Progress of Orom Cross DFS work programmes
- Blencowe Resources has confirmed progress on aspects of its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the Orom Cross graphite project in Uganda.
- Following completion of its Phase 7 drilling programme for a revision to the resource estimate, which was announced in July and which is expected to deliver “a material upgrade to the JORC Resource”, today’s announcement describes progress on power, roads and other infrastructure.
- Access to “abundant hydropower from Uganda’s national grid … [is facilitated by] … Two separate substations on either side of Orom-Cross … [which] … positions Orom-Cross as a future supplier of “green graphite” with strong ESG credentials”.
- Road access to the project will be enhanced by a “UK Government-sponsored programme … [currently] … underway to upgrade, widen and seal the Kitgum-to -Kidepo road that passes nearby the project, with a major intersection designed to provide direct access to Orom-Cross”.
- On completion, the road will provide access to a port in Kenya “providing a significant long-term logistics advantage, particularly when Orom-Cross scales up”.
- Today’s announcement also confirms that “Water, communications and camp facilities are all currently being established, with rail access from Gulu being considered as an option ahead. Together all these factors reduce upfront capital intensity and accelerate the pathway to production”.
- The announcement also describes how “Much of this DFS work also fed into milestones set by the US International Development Finance Corporation (“DFC”) for grant funding, further validating Orom-Cross as a world-class graphite project … [and the company confirms that] …. DFC has input US$4.75 million to date of the total US$5.0 million total grant funds with the remainder due on DFS completion”.
- Executive Chairman, Cameron Pearce, described the infrastructure work completed as “a major de-risking milestone for Orom-Cross … [which] … translates into lower capex, shorter development timelines and a sustainable, ESG-compliant operation”.
- He confirmed that the “DFS is progressing well, and we … anticipate being able to update the market on a completion date in the near future following the delivery of remaining technical work”.
Conclusion: The completion of work on the transport and power infrastructure at the Orom Cross project, together with progress on updating the mineral resource estimate, advance the project DFS.
Resolute Mining (RSG LN) 35.2p, Mkt Cap £728m – Higher gold prices help deliver 81% rise in H1 EBITDA
- Resolute Mining reports an 81% rise in H1 EBITDA to US$211m (H1 2024 – US$116m and a more than doubling of net after tax income of US$71m (H1 2024 -US$33m).
- Net cash increased “to $109.9 million (H1 2024 net cash of $66.3 million) with cash and bullion at 30 June 2025 of $158.7 million”.
- The company attributes the financial performance to “a 42% increase in gold price and 10% decrease in operating costs offsetting an 8% reduction in gold sold”.
- Resolute Mining’s full year production and cost guidance remains intact at between 275-300,000oz of gold production at an all-in-sustaining cost between US$1,650-US$1,750/oz.
- The financial results reflect H1 production of 151,460oz of gold at an AISC of US$1,688/oz (H1 2024 – 167,140oz at US$1,442/oz).
- The production includes 89,259 oz of gold at an AISC of US$1,972/oz from the Syama operations in Mali and 62,201oz at US$1,104/oz from the Senegalese operation at Mako.
- Gold sales of 145,120oz (H1 2024 – 157,321oz) at an average price of US$3,076/oz generated a 31% increase in revenue to US$448m (H1 2024 – US$342m).
- The company confirms H1 capital expenditure of ~US$58m, inclusive of exploration was “in line with full-year guidance of $109 – 126 million”.
- CEO, Chris Eger, described the results as “very positive … [and confirmed Resolute Mining’s commitment to] … safety, meeting guidance and ensuring a continued focus on cost reductions”.
- He noted the acquisition, during H1, of the Doropo and ABC Projects in Côte d’Ivoire which help diversify “Resolute’s asset base which remains a key part of our strategy … [and said that the] … licensing process at Doropo is progressing, and we are continuing to engage productively with the local government”.
- Today’s announcement emphasises the company’s commitment to “to working collaboratively with the Malian Government to unlock long-term value at Syama for all stakeholders … [and to implementing] … the 2023 Mining Code at Syama”.
- The announcement also says that “Following discussions with Guinean Government officials Resolute understands that its exploration permits were included in the group of over 100 permits nationwide that were revoked by the Ministry of Mines and Geology … [but says that] …. to date, Resolute has not received any official communication from the Government regarding the status of our permits”.
- Discussions continue with Guinea Government “to seek further information and resolution on any potential permit issues” which comprise the (Niagassola, Doko and Siguiri-Kouroussa permits “with an Initial Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate of the Mansala Prospect of 8.4 Mt grading 1.3 g/t Au for 357 koz of contained gold which was announced in 2024 following a two-year drilling program”.
Conclusion: Resolute Mining has benefitted from robust gold prices during the first six months of 2025 and is maintaining its 2025 production and cost guidance. Efforts to achieve portfolio diversification are aided by the acquisition of projects in the Ivory Coast and discussions continue in Guinea to clarify the status of project licences.
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
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Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
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Sales
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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
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| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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