Forecasts indicate the Russian economy is set to surpass previous expectations and experience growth this year, as the increase in oil prices counteracts the effects of Western sanctions.
A continuous increase in oil prices, due to tightened supply, has provided a significant boost to Russia’s economy, which is now projected to witness a 1.5pc growth this year. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), backed by 71 countries and two EU institutions, has adjusted its projections upward from -1.5pc, as reported in its May forecast.
Analysts from the EBRD had initially anticipated that Western sanctions, including a price cap on Russia’s oil exports, would effectively restrict growth, as reported by AFP. However, the sustained rise in oil prices and Russia’s ability to mitigate the impact by diversifying its export markets have supported oil revenues.
Since June, oil prices have experienced a 30pc surge, following extended production cuts by OPEC and its allies, with crude prices approaching $100 a barrel.
Saudi Arabia and Russia ranked as the world’s second and third top oil exporters, have chosen to continue limiting their production voluntarily.
Late last year, the G7 and Australia established a $60 per barrel price limit on Russian crude oil shipped by sea, expanding this cap to encompass other petroleum products starting in February.
In response to this, regions including the EU, UK, and US ceased all such imports, leading Russia to redirect its exports predominantly to nations such as China and India.
The Kyiv School of Economics asserts that the combination of climbing crude prices and Russia’s ability to sidestep the price ceiling could increase its revenues by a minimum of $15bn in 2023.
The EBRD anticipates an additional 1pc economic growth for the next year, though it acknowledges the prevailing uncertainties.
The bank noted, “The economic trajectory for 2024 will be largely influenced by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the consequent sanctions. Currently, a 1.0pc growth is forecasted.”
The EBRD also foresees a positive ripple effect for economies in Central Asia and the Caucasus, encompassing nations such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, attributing this to Russia’s influence. This uplift is ascribed to active trade links with Moscow and significant migration patterns to Russia and the resultant remittances, suggesting that despite the conflict, individuals from these nations continue to migrate to Russia.
