Nvidia Corporation stands to gain more than five billion dollars in quarterly revenues as early as 2026 should United States authorities permit the export of its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. UBS issued this assessment following indications from US officials that shipments to select Chinese customers may receive approval.
The US Commerce Department is reportedly considering authorised exports of Nvidia’s Hopper-generation H200 processors to approved buyers in China. However, shipments of the more advanced Blackwell generation remain restricted under current proposals, according to Reuters.
UBS analysts characterised the potential policy shift as levelling competitive conditions, noting that Advanced Micro Devices has already secured licences to ship its MI308 accelerators into the Chinese market. The investment bank estimates China’s domestic artificial intelligence compute market at approximately fifty billion dollars in 2025, with local suppliers positioned to meet only about 20 per cent of demand. This leaves roughly 80 per cent of the market available to global vendors including Nvidia and AMD.
Should regulatory approvals materialise, UBS projects Nvidia could resume shipments valued between five billion and ten billion dollars per quarter. This would represent additional upside to the company’s existing five hundred billion dollar order backlog for Blackwell and Rubin data centre products.
The potential policy adjustment reflects a broader evolution in global artificial intelligence investment dynamics, according to Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group. Green observed that expanded market access could generate meaningful revenue gains for semiconductor manufacturers whilst supporting segments of the wider technology sector.
However, Green cautioned that increased access to advanced computing capabilities among a wider range of market participants may compress competitive advantages across the industry.
He suggested that as more companies obtain access to similar technological tools, excess returns may diminish and markets will increasingly reward operational execution rather than exclusive access to resources. Green emphasised that investors should prepare for a competitive landscape where artificial intelligence leadership is contested rather than assumed.
