Malcy’s Blog – Oil price, Angus Energy, Coro Energy, Helium One Global & Trinity Exploration & Production

WTI $110.29 +1c, Brent $113.42 +87c, Diff -$3.13 +86c

By Malcolm Graham-Wood

USNG $8.74 +66c, UKNG 138.0p u/c, TTF €85.950 +€1.305

Oil price

Oil markets are quiet and taking in the various competing factors which don’t change much at the moment. China is mixed and the EU are still struggling with Hungary’s stand against Russian sanctions but claim there will be a decision by May 31.

Sleepy Joe has just realised that it’s the product market that is causing some of the problems, he must have been reading the blog in the last few days. Unfortunately there is only so much you can do, as I said their isn’t a strategic Reserve but there is a diesel stockpile which can be tapped, it won’t help the driving season much though.

As it’s Tuesday it’s retail gasoline prices day, thanks to the EIA but next week after Memorial Day of course it will be released on Tuesday night. A gallon of Exxon’s finest will rush you overall in the US some $4.593 which is up 10.2 cents w/w, up 48.6c m/m (yes!) and up $1.573 y/y. If you live in California it will be $5.49…

Angus Energy

Angus has announced that it has executed a share purchase agreement to acquire the entire issued share capital of the Company’s current joint venture partner in the Saltfleetby Project, Saltfleetby Energy Limited, which owns a 49% working interest in the Project thereby giving Angus Energy a 100% interest in the Project. To fund the Acquisition and other working capital requirements, the Company has concurrently arranged a direct subscription with affiliates of Aleph International Holdings (UK) Limited pursuant to which Aleph has subscribed for a total of 546,000,000 Ordinary Shares in the Company at a price of 1.09896011 pence, being £6,000,000 (Direct Subscription) split into an initial unconditional tranche of £3,000,000 and a second tranche of £3,000,000 conditional on Shareholder approval.

Summary of the Acquisition

The Company has executed a share purchase agreement to acquire the entire issued share capital of the Target from Forum Energy Services Limited.  The total effective consideration payable pursuant to the SPA is the sum of £14,052,000, which comprises:

·        £250,000 to be paid in cash at Completion;

·        the issue of 91 million Ordinary Shares at 1.09896011 pence per share at Completion;

·        the issue and allotment of the 546,000,000 Ordinary Shares at a price of 1.2 pence per Ordinary Share at Completion which are subject to lock-up provisions detailed below; and

·        up to £6,250,000 deferred consideration to be paid in instalments from net cash payments to Angus Energy from the Project through to 31 March 2025 (and subject to an upward or downward net cash adjustment) as and when those payments would have been available to SEL under the Company’s Senior Debt Facility of May 2021.

Following completion of the Acquisition, the Group would own a 100% working interest in, and would continue to be operator of, the Saltfleetby Licence.

As a result of the issue of the Initial Consideration Shares and Additional Consideration Shares and following the issue of the Initial Subscription Shares detailed below, Forum, will hold 637,000,000 Ordinary Shares in Angus representing approximately 28% of the Enlarged Issued Share Capital and just under 25% of the Enlarged Issued Share Capital following the issue of the Secondary Subscription Shares below.

Under the terms of the SPA, Forum will also have the right to appoint one director to the Board of Angus Energy which, subject to regulatory checks by the Company’s Nominated Adviser, is expected to be Paul Forrest, the beneficial owner of Forum.   Whilst under the terms of the Direct Subscription, for so long as Aleph holds at least 10% of the issued Ordinary Shares, it shall have the right to approve the appointment of up to two Independent Non-Executive Directors to the board of the Company (and as a member of each and any committee of the Board) who are nominated by the Company.

Further details about the Acquisition and the risks associated with the transaction are set out below.

George Lucan, CEO, comments:

“An opportunity has arisen to consolidate our partners’ 49% holding in the Saltfleetby asset for up to £14.052 million which represents a significant discount to the October 2021 P90 valuation of our own 51% interest at £25.4 million.  That October 2021 CPR used an average price per therm for gas of under 70 pence over the  entire life of the field whilst the Heren NBP forward price for gas is presently trading at a level which is over double that number out to 2025.  In that regard we should note that over 70% of overall field revenues are unhedged.

Equally important to the Company’s long-term future is to attract the support of a strategic investors in the group led by Aleph, who have shown repeated commitment to Angus and have the resources and shared ambitions to grow Angus’s production in hydrocarbons and support its plans in relation to alternative and renewable energies.

Project progress at Saltfleetby is excellent with all major equipment on site, electrical and pipework tie-in underway, and select dry commissioning already begun.  With a conservative estimate for wet commissioning we are confident of being able to make initial nominations, or First Gas, toward the middle of June.  We aim to focus on new opportunities as soon as this milestone is achieved.”

Things have been moving fast at Angus, rarely a day goes by without me retweeting operational progress at Saltfleetby and as George Lucan says above, the first gas milestone is less than a month away. In addition he has now come up with an interesting and innovative way of Angus, with powerful backing, taking over the remaining 49% of Saltfleetby. 

With reference to the price it is also encouraging to see this deal at such a discount to the Angus CPR valuation from October 2021 and with highly supportive shareholders and the ability to pay down debt very swiftly the company is set fair. When this process started it was a formal sales process either for the whole company or at a later stage when that ended a continued discussion with two actively interested parties.

During this process the shares have performed well and the company have been able to raise money for working capital at Saltfleetby which means that the field is almost at first gas. As an entity Angus has focused on delivery of Salfleetby and is now funded, independent and ready for the next phase of its progress.

Coro Energy

Coro has provided the following corporate update.

Italy – Gas Production

Further to the previous announcements on 7 March and 30 March 2022, Coro is pleased to report that average gas production during April 2022 (post the recommencement of Sillaro in March 2022) was approximately 20,000 scm/d generating approximately €580,000 in revenue. In addition, Coro’s Italian subsidiary also received a VAT reclaim of approximately €200,000 in April 2022.

The Company reports that Italian gas prices remain strong, with an average price in April 2022 of €0.98/scm. The Company therefore continues to expect significant free cash flow from its Italian portfolio.

Further production enhancing activity is scheduled across the Italian portfolio during the course of the year.

Vietnam – Solar (85% owned by Coro)

Following entry into a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement with Phong Phu, a listed Vietnamese high volume manufacturer of textiles, announced on 11 April 2022, the Company is completing permitting and procurement activities and intends to place equipment orders in the coming weeks. The 3MW solar rooftop pilot project is expected to achieve maiden revenues before the end of 2022 with net cash flow of approximately $0.3m per annum thereafter.

Philippines – Solar & Wind (80% owned by Coro)

Coro has two development stage renewables projects in the Philippines, a 100MW solar project and a 100MW wind project which, allowing for permitting timelines, are 6 and 12 months respectively, away from achieving ready-to-build status. In addition to the wind data gathering exercise which has commenced with Lidar equipment onsite and Met Mast equipment under contract, the Company is currently focused on securing land access alongside regulatory permits and approvals.

Indonesia – Duyung PSC Gas Production (15% owned by Coro)

The Mako gas field is one of the largest gas discoveries (495 Bcf gross, full field) 2C (contingent recoverable resources) in the West Natuna Basin and, the Directors believe, the largest confirmed undeveloped resource in the area.

The Company  is pleased to report that regional gas prices in Europe and South East Asia remain strong and that the macro environment is creating the incentive for the negotiations of the current Heads of Agreement at Mako to be finalised in a binding Gas Sales Agreement.

Coro reports that the operator of the PSC continues to make steady progress towards a Final Investment Decision  in 2023 with first gas production and sales targeted for 2025. The Company estimates its share of pre-FID expenditure at approximately US$1m, with further capital expenditure post FID (assuming a leased processing facility) of approximately US$38m net to Coro. Partners can also elect to advance the expected first gas date by ordering long lead items (estimated to cost approximately US$2m, net to Coro) prior to FID. The Company expects, as with other large gas developments globally, to be able to fund the development capital expenditure through a combination of Reserve Based Lending and farm-in transactions.

Corporate

Coro has a strong funding position from a combination of its cash position of approximately US$2.8m (as at 12 April 2022), supported by the free cash flow from its Italian assets and the Vietnam solar pilot, which is expected to be operational later this year. These projects will support the further development of the Company’s South East Asian portfolio.

Mark Hood, Coro’s Chief Executive Officer commented:

“Pleasingly, as the constraints imposed by COVID are further eased in the region, momentum is building for the Company’s development assets. Notably, the opportunities presented by our Italian assets leave us in a strong financial position as we look to generate revenues from our blended portfolio of gas and renewables assets.”

Coro is in a strong position right now but the share price, having doubled between Christmas and Easter has mysteriously fallen by nearly 30% in the last month. This leaves the company with a market cap of only £7m which given the amount of high quality projects as listed above is sub-optimal especially if you include the cash position of $2.8m bizarrely quoted in US dollars as the revenue from Italy is quoted in Euros and the shares are quoted in sterling. Coro shares should be doing better than this, the message ain’t getting across…

Helium One Global

Helium One has provided an update on progress at its Rukwa (100%) project area in Tanzania including details of its planned 2022 drilling campaign.

Highlights:

  • Focus on discovery through drilling of Tai prospect
  • Drill location guided by Phase II seismic which has improved definition of the Tai structure and identified an untested closure
  • Well Tai1/1A provided detailed information on reservoir and seal, and the identification of subsurface helium which proves a working helium system
  • Due diligence and contract negotiations ongoing for a drilling rig located in East Africa

Tai Prospect

Helium One plans to commence 2022 Phase II exploration drilling operations at the Tai prospect which is the most advanced of all leads and prospects identified in the 3,448km2 Rukwa basin.

Management have been encouraged to select Tai as their primary target by new data taken from the Phase II 2D Seismic campaign acquired in November and December 2021 and processed in early 2022.  This interpretation, which is now complete, has not only provided improved resolution over the Tai structural closure, but has also identified a newly defined closure in the Lake Beds which was not previously targeted.

Drilling at Tai is supported by stratigraphic information from the 2021 drilling campaign.             QEMSCAN analysis on cuttings has provided information on reservoir distribution, mineralogy, seal potential and grain size of the entire sedimentary sequence at Tai-1/-1A, indicating good to excellent quality reservoir. It also confirms the presence of a thick claystone unit at the top of the Karoo Group as well as the presence of intraformational claystone and calcrete interbeds within the Lake Bed Formation.

The Tai prospect is further understood by the identification of multiple helium shows (helium identified in drilling mud) across all formations but which the Company was unable to log or test with wireline equipment.  With a robust structural closure, detailed information on reservoir and seal, and the identification of subsurface helium which proves a working helium system, Tai is the lowest risk prospect in our current AOI of the Rukwa Basin for the Company to focus exploration expenditure with a primary objective of confirming a discovery in the 2022 campaign.

Drilling services

The Company is in detailed discussions with both a rig operator and service companies with the objective of drilling the Tai prospect in Q3/Q4 2022, before the commencement of the rainy season.

The Company has contacted an international drilling rig survey and inspection company to undertake a detailed audit of the proposed rig and its ancillary equipment on location in East Africa.

Further details, including the scope of the drilling program, will be provided once the audit is complete and the contract has been signed.

Phase III Exploration

Helium One is committed to ongoing exploration across all three licensed basins. Detailed 2D Seismic from Phase I and Phase II campaign covers less than 10% of the Rukwa license, with much of the basin remaining unexplored.

The Company is about to undertake a fieldwork programme in the Balangida Basin to ground truth helium seeps identified in recent multispectral satellite spectroscopy data. The Company is also in the process of purchasing high resolution airborne gravity gradiometery data across the Eyasi and Balangida basins with a view to continue its exploration focus with a maiden 2D seismic campaign targeted for Q4 2022.

David Minchin, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

“We are delighted to be pressing ahead with our Phase II programme with a priority drill target identified.  We are maintaining our focus on cost effective exploration with an emphasis on defining a discovery in 2022.

“Our decision to return to Tai has been driven by the interpretation of the Phase II 2D Seismic which, not only improved the definition of a robust structural closure in the Karoo Group, but also identified an untested closure in the Lake Bed Formation.  Geological risk at Tai has been better understood from detailed stratigraphic data and the recognition of helium shows identified in the 2021 drilling campaign.  With the highest chance of geological success and a robust closure at multiple stratigraphic levels, the Tai prospect gives us the best opportunity to make an economic discovery that unlocks the potential of the Rukwa helium province.

“With a drilling rig identified and contract negotiations ongoing we look forward to a successful exploration campaign in 2022.”

HE1 has been very quiet since the problems last August when the shares fell heavily after the Tai disappointment. Right now the return to Tai is based on the analysis and interpretation of the seismic with extra data being used. I am looking forward to the company’s next presentation to analysts to work out why the CoS has improved so much. 

Trinity Exploration & Production

Trinity has announced its final results for the year ended 31 December 2021.

Trinity delivered another resilient performance in 2021.  The Group is now positioned to leverage its cash and asset base to drive value and returns – with groundwork laid for near-term resumption of drilling, comprising a combination of high angle and horizontal as well as conventional low angle wells. This will be funded from existing cash resources and is the first phase of an ambitious growth strategy designed to maximise returns.

Highlights

·      Revenues  of USD 66.2 million (2020: USD 44.1 million)

·      Average production of 3,069 bopd (2020: 3,232 bopd)

·      Average price per barrel received increased to USD 60.4/bbl (2020: USD 37.7/bbl)

·      Adjusted EBITDA of USD 19.8 million (2020: USD 12.1 million)

·      Operating Profit* of USD 10.0 million (2020: USD 3.0 million)

·      Sixth consecutive year of sub USD30.0/bbl operating break-even with industry wide cost pressures increasing

·      Cash generated from continuing operations USD 12.6 million (2020: USD 10.3million)

·      Cash flow used in investing activities  USD 13.9 million (2020: USD 6.0 million)

·      Year end cash USD 18.3 million (2020: USD 20.2 million)

·      New 25-year Galeota Licence, Crude Sales Agreement, Joint Operating Agreement, Conversion to 100% Working Interest

·      Lease Operatorship Agreements renewed for 10 years on attractive terms

·      PS-4 acquisition completed – further enhancing Trinity’s contiguous acreage

* Before SPT, PT, Impairments and Exceptional Items 

Positioned for Next Growth Phase

·      Dynamic strategy for growth is underpinned by a strong balance sheet and resilient and dependable cash flow

·      Focus on maximising value from existing assets and through acquisitions and partnerships

·      Clearly defined, risk-mitigated strategy to drive returns for shareholders through value growth and the potential to return cash

·      Strengthened Board

 Additions of Derek Hudson and Kaat Van Hecke further strengthening commercial, operational and wider industry skill sets

·      Creation of Technical Committee

 Focused on risk-mitigation and assurance of opportunities which can increase scale and optimise returns

 Resumption of onshore drilling during H2 2022 is the first phase of this scaling up process

·      Commenced planning for ambitious, risk-appropriate exploration programme

 To test the remaining material prospective onshore resources, using 3D seismic to map leads with potential to be fast-tracked to monetisation

 Exploring various options for the Galeota asset

Post Period Highlights

·      Continued momentum into Q1 2022

 Q1 production levels resilient with volumes averaging 3,013 bopd (Q4 2021: 3,103 bopd).  2022 average production will be influenced by the timing and outcomes of the drilling campaign.

 Cash balance of USD 17.5 million as at 31 March 2022 (unaudited) (USD 18.3 million as at 31 December 2021)

 Average realisation of USD 83.1/bbl for Q1 (Q1 2021: USD 52.3/bbl)

 2022 average production will be influenced by the timing and outcomes of the drilling campaign

Jeremy Bridglalsingh, CEO of Trinity, commented:

We are delighted with the Company’s performance during 2021 and look forward with confidence. The reinforced technical guidance for the upcoming drilling programme points towards the potential for this to be an inflection point for the Company as we commence the next stage of our growth, and we very much look forward to updating the market with further developments in due course.

“Our ambition is to double production over the next few years, and thereby generate sufficient free cash flow both to fund future growth initiatives and deliver meaningful cash returns for shareholders, and we believe that we now have the structure in place to deliver this challenging target.”

Trinity has idled this last year or so and the share price has fallen substantially as the market sees another fall in production. Whilst the oil price has bailed them out and revenues are  obviously up there has been a delay at Galeota where the company are ‘exploring various options’. 

There is a very laudable ambition but right now I am not sure where that is going to come from. Sadly there have historically been meetings with the company but I haven’t been invited this time so will try and sign up for the Investor Meet event later today in order to catch up. The company has a wonderful portfolio of fine assets and with oil and gas prices as they are upwards movement should not be ruled out.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author

Malcolm Graham-Wood

Disclaimer: Malcy’s Blog is provided for general information about the international oil and gas industry and the companies that operate within it. It does not constitute investment advice and Malcy does not buy or sell shares, warrants or bonds in any company written about within the blog. Information is taken from publicly available sources and any comment is that of the author who does not take any third party comment in the blog


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