Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecasts after the emerging US-Iran peace agreement increased expectations that energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal more quickly than previously anticipated.
The investment bank now expects Brent crude to average $80 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2026, down from its previous forecast of $90. It also reduced its average oil price outlook for 2027 to $75 per barrel from $80.
The revised forecasts follow the interim agreement announced by US President Donald Trump, which is expected to lead to the lifting of restrictions on Gulf shipping and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from Friday.
Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven said the bank now assumes that oil exports from the Persian Gulf will return to pre-conflict levels by the end of July, a month earlier than previously forecast.
The prospect of increased supply has already weighed heavily on oil markets, with Brent crude falling to around $82 per barrel, its lowest level in three months and well below the $120 peak reached during the height of the conflict.
President Trump has repeatedly stated that shipping activity is already resuming through the Strait of Hormuz, describing the route as safe and indicating that oil tankers have begun moving through the region once again.
However, shipping industry executives remain more cautious about the pace of recovery.
Jotaro Tamura, Chief Executive of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, warned that vessel operators are unlikely to immediately return to normal operations until they have confidence that the agreement is being fully implemented and conditions in the region have genuinely stabilised.
Industry participants point to the disruption experienced during recent months and suggest that tanker operators may take several weeks before restoring normal shipping schedules.
Morgan Stanley analysts echoed that view, noting that while the agreement represents a significant step forward, a full recovery in tanker traffic is likely to take time and could extend over several weeks.
The differing views highlight the key uncertainty now facing oil markets. While financial markets have rapidly priced in a return to normal energy flows, the practical realities of shipping, insurance, security and logistics may mean the recovery takes longer than some investors currently expect.
Nevertheless, lower oil prices have already boosted global equity markets, reduced inflation concerns and improved expectations that central banks may face less pressure to keep interest rates elevated in the months ahead.
