Gold has re-entered a phase of outperformance relative to the US dollar, a development that Deutsche Bank characterises as a “positive crossover” and one which bolsters the institution’s constructive view on precious metals markets.
According to the bank’s analysis, gold has transitioned from a period of underperformance to outperformance against the US dollar when measured by its trailing 60-day beta. This shift represents a departure from the weakness observed since late January and provides what Deutsche Bank describes as “an encouraging context” for its bullish outlook on the yellow metal.
The recent move has occurred against a backdrop of considerable headwinds, including technology-driven equity market volatility and hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve. Whilst a recent US Supreme Court ruling concerning tariffs may have provided marginal support for gold prices, Deutsche Bank suggests this development has not served as a decisive catalyst.
The more significant observation, according to the bank, is that gold is “showing early signs of re-exhibiting a positive divergence from the USD beta”, a dynamic that its USD 6,000 per ounce forecast effectively depends upon. Should gold achieve a degree of outperformance comparable to that witnessed during 2024 and 2025, prices could align more closely with a target of USD 6,900 per ounce.
Silver has also captured attention within the precious metals complex. Deutsche Bank highlights a “resumption of white metals outperformance versus gold”, evidenced by the gold-silver ratio declining to 57. Robust options positioning and renewed backwardation in Shanghai markets suggest upside risk to the bank’s year-end silver forecast of USD 100 per ounce.
The convergence of technical indicators, changing correlations with the dollar, and strength across both gold and silver markets suggests a potentially significant shift in precious metals dynamics that warrants close monitoring by investors with exposure to the sector.
