Europe could face flight cancellations “soon” as fuel shortages intensify, according to Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency.
Birol warned the continent risks running critically low on jet fuel within six weeks if current supply constraints persist, driven by ongoing disruption in global oil flows.
Airlines are already taking action. Lufthansa confirmed it will permanently shut its domestic commuter airline and plans to remove six aircraft from its international fleet after the summer season, cautioning that capacity cuts could extend into winter.
The impact threatens to disrupt summer travel plans, with mounting evidence that fuel availability—not just cost—is becoming a binding constraint.
The squeeze follows a sharp rise in oil prices after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz at the onset of the conflict in late February. The route typically handles around 20% of global oil and gas shipments, making it a critical chokepoint for energy markets.
Birol warned the shock would have “major implications for the global economy,” with knock-on effects including higher petrol, gas and electricity prices. UK fuel costs have already surged, with petrol and diesel rising to 159p and 190p per litre respectively, according to the RAC.
He added that if the Strait remains shut, flight cancellations due to jet fuel shortages are likely to follow imminently.
Several airports have already alerted EU authorities that supplies could run critically low within weeks without a significant increase in imports from the Middle East, putting upcoming holiday travel at risk.
Meanwhile, Virgin Atlantic has introduced fuel surcharges, pushing ticket prices up by hundreds of pounds.
Jet fuel prices remain a key pressure point, averaging $197 per barrel on Thursday—nearly double pre-conflict levels of around $100.
