Bitcoin traders are positioning for a volatile but range-bound August, with prediction market Polymarket assigning a strong chance of a move to $65,000 but little expectation of a fresh record high.
The market gives Bitcoin around a 59% probability of touching $65,000 during August, while the odds fall to 25% for $67,500, 10% for $70,000 and just 2% for $75,000.
On the downside, traders see a 91% chance of Bitcoin falling to $62,500 and a 44% probability of a move to $60,000, while the odds of a drop to $50,000 stand at only 2%.
Bitcoin was trading around $63,050 on 14 August, down roughly 1.3% on the day and around 50% below its October 2025 record high near $126,000.
The pricing suggests traders expect Bitcoin to remain trapped in a relatively narrow but volatile range rather than make a decisive breakout.
Recent weakness has been linked to outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, selling by corporate holders, geopolitical uncertainty and caution around US economic data.
Technical attention remains focused on support around $63,000 and $58,000, while resistance is clustered around $67,000 and above.
August has historically been a difficult month for Bitcoin, and a separate Polymarket market currently assigns just a 1% chance of a new all-time high by the end of September.
