Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Ascent, Delta Gold, Invinity, Iofina, MTI, Quantum Helium, Spectra.
The market tone is mixed at best right now. A few indices are stalling at key resistance; crypto still looks vulnerable; gold and oil have both taken a hit; and only a small number of individual stocks are offering genuinely constructive setups. That is not usually a sign of broad strength. It is more often a sign to stay selective and pay attention to levels.
Here is the technical picture across the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, crude oil, and a batch of UK small caps that are either setting up well or trying to turn.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: caught in a messy range
The FTSE 100 has failed where it needed to deliver. It could not break through the top of its falling trend channel, which sits around 10,550. That leaves the index stuck in an awkward zone and trading on the wrong side of the 50 day moving average, near 10,490.
During the session, the market dipped towards 10,490, and if there is a daily close below the 50 day line, attention shifts down towards the 10,230 area. That would be the next obvious support zone.
For now, the more constructive case is that the FTSE holds around the 50 day moving average and works its way back up towards 10,550 by the end of the week. The problem is that the chart currently looks untidy. It is effectively trapped between the 50 day line and the February trend reference above.
One modest positive is momentum. The RSI is around 51, which keeps it just above neutral. That means the basic stance remains buying dips while the RSI holds above 50, even if the price action itself is not especially inspiring.
DAX: still positive, but waiting for a proper breakout
The DAX remains close to a key resistance line running from the end of last month, around 25,100. It has not managed to clear that level yet, but the broader structure is still fairly benign.
The level that matters is a clear end of day close above 25,100. If that arrives, the upside target becomes 26,300 by the end of next month. That would bring in a resistance line from November and also the top of the rising trend channel in place since March.
There are a couple of reasons not to be overly negative here:
- The RSI is in the mid 50s, which is constructive rather than weak.
- The 50 day moving average is rising.
- The 200 day moving average is at least stable and may be starting to edge higher too.
So while the DAX is not bursting through 25,000 yet, the chart still leans more positive than negative.
Dow: support needed after rejection at the top of the channel
The Dow has been mildly disappointing after hitting the top of its rising channel near 52,200. In one sense, that is exactly what trend channels are there for. They often cap price before the next decision point. But the market now needs to show that support can come in at a higher level.
The first zone to watch is around 51,000, which was previously resistance and should now act as support. Below that, the more important level is 50,500, which combines old February resistance with the floor of the current channel.
As long as the Dow can stay above those levels, this still looks like a normal pullback inside a broader uptrend rather than anything more serious.
Bitcoin: false hope above support, then weakness again
Bitcoin has done exactly what bulls did not want to see. It briefly moved back above the March support area at 65,000, which made it look as though a push towards 70,000 was on the cards. But that move did not hold.
The market has slipped back again, and as long as it remains below the recent resistance around 66,000 to 67,000, there is a real risk of another test of 60,000.
That 60,000 area is the major support zone and remains the key line in the sand for this market. Failing to hold above reclaimed support tends to be a warning sign, especially when a breakout attempt quickly fades.
Ethereum: still under pressure
Ethereum is looking softer still. The main focus has been the February support around 1,753, and price is hovering very close to that area. There was a bounce towards 1,840, but it was not enough to change the wider picture.
As long as Ethereum stays below 1,849, the chart leaves room for another move down towards 1,600, and possibly even 1,500.
The technical backdrop is not helping:
- Both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages are falling.
- The RSI has failed at 50, which often acts as a continuation signal in a downtrend.
That combination keeps the pressure on the downside unless price can recover decisively above resistance.
Gold: back to behaving more logically
Gold has started moving in a way that makes more sense again. The previous pattern had looked unusual, with improving geopolitical conditions somehow coinciding with strength in gold. That has now reversed.
With tensions easing, gold has weakened and is now below the 200 day moving average at 4,461. That puts the 4,000 area back in focus, which has already acted as an important zone several times this year, including in January, March, and earlier this month when the low came in near 4,023.
If the market cannot stabilise, there is scope for a deeper move towards 3,780, which would match the floor of the falling trend channel from January. Even if that lower channel support is not reached, a dip through 4,000 and towards 3,900 remains a realistic possibility while gold trades beneath the 200 day line.
Crude oil: oversold, but not necessarily finished falling
Crude oil has been one of the obvious casualties of the latest political developments. The chart had already been threatening a test of the 200 day moving average, and that level has nearly been reached. It currently sits at 73.71.
Given the current weakness, it would be surprising if the market did not at least tag that level. If there is an end of day close below the 200 day line, then the next target becomes the February gap support down near 68 dollars.
Even if a bounce appears after that, the upside looks limited for now. Resistance is likely to come in at:
- 82 dollars at the latest gap area
- 80 dollars at the old April floor
- More likely around 78 to 79 dollars in the near term
The RSI is around 29, which means the market is technically oversold. That can support a rebound, but oversold conditions alone are not enough to call a bottom. In a weak tape, markets can stay oversold longer than people expect.
Stock setups: thin pickings, which is usually a warning sign
There are not many stock charts standing out at the moment. That in itself matters. When only a handful of names are offering decent technical setups, it can often suggest the broader market is running short of momentum.
Still, there are some interesting cases worth tracking.
Ascent Resources: looking for a move through the 200 day line: Ascent Resources has bounced, helped by its big claim story, and the remarkable thing is that the shares are still only sitting in the middle of their range despite the expectation that significant claim related news should be close. The technical trigger here is a daily close above the 200 day moving average at current levels. If that happens, the shares could retest the May resistance near 7.00p. The preferred scenario is that price now avoids closing back below 4.37p, which also lines up with the floor of the channel.
Delta Gold: buy the dips towards rising support?: Delta Gold continues to attract criticism from the usual doubters, whether on valuation grounds or simply because some people missed the move. The chart, however, is still constructive. The main support to watch is the floor of the rising trend channel from February, which comes in around 133p. There is also June support around 128p, but 133p is the cleaner technical reference for potential dip buying. If the market does rebound from there, then a move back towards 170p becomes the next obvious destination.
First Group: trying to push through the 200 day average: First Group is not a chart that gets covered often, but it has become more interesting after gapping through resistance and attempting to break above the 200 day moving average around current levels. A daily close above that line, roughly 187p, would open up a move towards 209p by the end of next month, which is where the top of the channel comes in. The key condition is that the shares stay above 180p.
Invinity: a V-shaped bull flag with more upside possible: One of the more impressive turnaround charts has been Invinity. The current setup looks like a V-shaped bull flag, and that pattern can often lead to another sharp leg higher if it completes. The near term trigger is a break through 40p, which would point towards 43p to 44p over the next couple of weeks. There may be more in it than that. Looking further back, resistance from a few years ago sits around 48p, and that could become the best case target as long as the shares remain above the recent gap support in the low 30s.
Iofina: breakout points to 62 pence: Iofina has already broken through the 49p resistance area, and the chart now points towards 62p. That target comes from a resistance line projection dating back to 2022. The pace of the move suggests that target could be reached by the end of next month if the current momentum holds.
Likewise: a forgotten stock with a constructive breakout: Likewise is not exactly a market favourite, but the chart has become interesting. After a decent company update, the shares broke through 29p and are now targeting the top of a rising trend channel that has been developing since 2022. That opens the way to 38 to 39p by the end of next month. There is also a supportive moving average signal in play here. The 50 day average has crossed above the 200 day average, producing a golden cross, which tends to reinforce bullish setups.
MTI Wireless: still heading for the summer target: MTI Wireless has featured repeatedly because the chart has remained constructive throughout the move. Initial targets in the upper 40s and then around 60p have already been in play, and the next objective is now a resistance line projection from 2023. That points to 92p, potentially by the end of August. As long as the shares hold above 70p, which was previous resistance and should now act as support, the upside case remains intact.
Quantum Helium: recovery setup after a bear trap: Quantum Helium is one of the better looking helium plays on the board at the moment. The chart shows a bear trap gap reversal after dipping below the December support area at 0.024p. The next hurdle is the 200 day moving average around 0.032p. A daily close above that level would strengthen the recovery case and point towards 0.040p by the end of next month. Before that, the immediate priority is simply staying above 0.03p, which now acts as support and also marks the floor of the old rising trend channel.
Spectra: momentum improving as support holds: Spectra rounds out the list. The shares have already overshot the top of the earlier channel, which suggests the trend may need to be redrawn at a steeper angle. For now, while price holds above 180p, which is the recent support level, the chart points towards 220p and that could happen as soon as the end of next month Momentum is helping. The RSI has bounced twice around the 50 area and stayed above it, which is often a healthy sign. The only missing ingredient is the 200 day moving average, which has yet to turn higher. If that starts to curl up, it should add more fuel to the upside move.
What matters most right now
The broad picture is not one of runaway strength. Indices are hesitating, crypto looks vulnerable, gold and oil are under pressure, and leadership in equities is narrow.
That makes levels especially important.
- FTSE 100: hold the 50 day line or risk 10,230
- DAX: needs a close above 25,100 for 26,300
- Dow: support at 51,000 and then 50,500
- Bitcoin: below 66,000 to 67,000 keeps 60,000 in play
- Ethereum: below 1,849 leaves room for 1,600 or lower
- Gold: below the 200 day line keeps 4,000 and possibly 3,900 in focus
- Crude oil: likely to test the 200 day line, with 68 possible on a breakdown
On the stock side, the best opportunities are still in selected names where support is clear and momentum is improving. But this is not the sort of backdrop where you want to assume everything is about to go up together. Selectivity is the game.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
