Copper warehouse stocks continue to fall on potential for production cuts over sulphur and sulphuric acid supply disruption
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Almonty Industries (ALM US) – Up to US$800m convertible note offering
Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – Early conversion and redemption of a portion of its recently issued Convertible Loan Notes
Resolute Mining (RSG AU) – Syama production guided lower logistics disruptions in Mali
URU Metals* (URU LN) – Further refinement of geophysics and ground survey data ahead of drilling on the Zeb Nickel Project
Copper – warehouse stocks continue to fall on potential for production cuts over sulphur and sulphuric acid supply disruption
- SHFE warehouse tonnage falls 3.9% (-6,902t) to 169,512t. The fall is all the more prescient given SHFE stocks have fallen by 12% since 1st May
- LME warehouse stocks also fell 750t to 379,225t this morning and 5% since 1th May
- Together the two markets have seen substantial falls with warehouse stocks now representing under 2% of estimated global copper demand for 202
Lithium – Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt is considering a lithium carbonate plant in Zimbabwe, nation’s mines minister said
- “They will be producing lithium carbonate, which is more valued,” the minister told reports in Harare yesterday.
- Zimbabwe shipped 1.1mt SC last year accounting for ~15% of Chinese imports.
- The push from the government for more downstream processing follows the news that Zhejiang Huayou commissioned battery grade sulphate plant in October 2025 (~$400m capex).
- The nation suspended lithium concentrate overseas shipments in February but later switched to an export quota system in exchange for downstream processing development commitments.
- The Company also bid for the Ewoyaa Lithium Project in Ghana earlier in May valuing it at >$300m.
Nickel US$18,565/t – Chinese nickel producers looking for alternative nickel mines outside Indonesia as government cracks down
- Indonesian government cut in export quotas for nickel mining to 260-270mt from 379mt in 2025 in a move to conserve reserves, manage supply growth and stabilise nickel prices.
- These quotas may be revised 25-30% higher via Work Plan Budget revisions in the second half to meet rising demand from nickel processors (Mysteel).
- We suspect the government is also looking to maximise its tax and royalty take while cracking down on environmental issues at Chinese nickel miners / processors in Indonesia.
- Chinese nickel miners are now looking elsewhere with Tsingshan Group looking to Madagascar and Lygend Resources is working on a projects in Tanzania and at Koniambo in New Caledonia.
- Eramet also had their allowance cut at Weda Bay Nickel by up to 70%
- The move means processors in Indonesia will need to import nickel laterite concentrates from the Philippines and elsewhere to meet domestic smelter demand of ~310–327mt this year.
- Indonesia currently represents ~40% of global nickel production and recognises that it has a commanding presence in the market.
Hydrometallurgy: western miners working on development of Hydrometallurgy and ETL processes for nickel production
- Hydrometallurgical processes often require high temperature and pressures, though LionOre’s Activox process ran at atmospheric temperatures before it was bought and buried by Norilsk.
- ETL – Elevated Temperature Leaching which is increasingly used for sulphide and transitional copper ores is now being applied to nickel.
- Vale runs the Vale Long Harbour processing facility makes high-purity nickel in Canada using hydrometallurgical to treat nickel sulfide concentrates.
- Glencore still runs Murrin Murrin in WA using HPAL.
- Sherritt and Sumitomo operate Ambatovy project in Madagascar using HPAL
- Excelsior Nickel Cobalt are using HPAL project in Central Sulawesi to produce a high-grade MHP mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulfate, and cathode material for the EV market.
- Harita Nickel uses HPAL to turn limonite ore into nickel and cobalt sulfates for EVs at an integrated facilities on Obi Island, Indonesia.
- Lifezone Metals is looking to developing the Kabanga Nickel Project in Tanzania, though BHP terminated its support.
- Brazilian Nickel has a working pilot nickel heap leach trial running since mid-2022 at its Piauí Nickel Project in north-east Brazil.
UK car registrations hit heighest level since before Covid pandemic
- UK new car registrations were up over 7% yoy in May 2026 to around 160,000 units, taking ytd registrations to 924,000 vehicles, up nearly 9% and marking the strongest performance of the decade, although still below May 2019 levels.
- Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales increased 34% in May to almost 44,000 units, giving EVs a 27.3% market share. Petrol vehicles fell to 41% of the market, while hybrids and plug-in hybrids accounted for a combined 26% and diesel fell below 5%.
- EV demand has been in part due to higher fuel prices driven by the Iran war, which have widened the running-cost advantage of EVs and improved their affordability relative to petrol cars.
- The UK’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate requires 33% of new car sales to be electric in 2026, although emissions-related flexibilities effectively reduce the practical target to around 25%. This has created division within the industry, with some manufacturers seeking lower targets while others support maintaining current ambitions.
- EV advocates argue that the market’s 27% EV share demonstrates that consumer demand is already material, while analysts believe further growth depends on expanding and improving charging infrastructure.
- Chinese automakers have emerged as one of the biggest drivers of growth in the UK market, particularly through competitively priced vehicles across petrol, hybrid and electric segments.
- Chinese automotive group Chery has become one of the UK’s fastest-growing manufacturers, with its brands, including Jaecoo and Omoda, selling 57,000 vehicles in the UK during the first five months of 2026, surpassing both Ford and Mercedes.
- The Jaecoo 7 has become Britain’s third best-selling car in 2026, with more than 20,000 units sold. Priced between £30,000 and £35,000, it has been positioned as a lower-cost alternative to premium SUVs and has outsold established models such as the Nissan Qashqai and Vauxhall Corsa.
- Unlike many EV-focused entrants that rely heavily on fleet and leasing sales, Jaecoo claims 63% of its UK sales have been to private buyers, suggesting strong direct consumer acceptance of Chinese brands.
- Chery recently confirmed plans to manufacture some vehicles at Nissan’s Sunderland plant, indicating a deeper commitment to the UK market and potentially strengthening its long-term competitive position.
What’s actually holding markets up right now? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcyYlUoaP1I
Coal mine gas explosion in China: https://www.itv.com/news/2026-05-23/at-least-82-killed-in-coal-mine-gas-explosion-in-china-local-media-reports
Guardian Metal Resources – Tungsten & Pilot Mountain mine : https://invest.investorshub.com/innovationreport/
| Dow Jones Industrials | +1.73% | at | 51,562 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.31% | at | 66,588 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -1.14% | at | 24,966 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.74% | at | 4,028 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -1.0 | at | 4.46 |
Currencies
US$1.1637/eur vs 1.1607/eur previous. Yen 159.94/$ vs 159.90/$. SAr 16.292/$ vs 16.335/$. $1.345/gbp vs $1.342/gbp. 0.713/aud vs 0.714/aud. CNY 6.772/$ vs 6.776/$.
Dollar Index 99.26 vs 99.44 previous.
Economics
Europe – Eurozone contracts -0.2% qoq in Q1 on falling trade and lower investment
- The move reverses the 0.2% expansion in Q4
- Eurozone GDP growth slowed to 0.3% yoy from 1.2% yoy
- EU, GDP fell by -0.1% qoq, with annualised growth pulling back to 0.7% from 1.4%.
| Indicator | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | |
| Eurozone GDP Q/Q | -0.2% | +0.2% | |
| EU GDP Q/Q | -0.1% | +0.2% | |
| Eurozone GDP Y/Y | +0.3% | +1.2% | |
| EU GDP Y/Y | +0.7% | +1.4% |
| Eurozone | EU | |
| Household Consumption | +0.1 pp | +0.1 pp |
| Government Consumption | +0.1 pp | +0.1 pp |
| Fixed Investment | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Inventories | -0.1 pp | 0.0 pp |
| Net Exports | -0.3 pp | -0.2 pp |
No jet fuel shortage in Europe according to EU transport chief
- The EU does not see a shortage of jet fuel shortage at present from the blockade of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
- High jet fuel prices have caused airlines to cut uneconomic routes, combine flights and incorporate more SAF ‘Sustainable Aviation Fuel’.
- Airlines are able to blend in between 10-50% SAF into modern jet engines.
- SAF is produced using waste lipids such as cooking oil, animal fats, tallow corn husks and other waste or alcohols.
- The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation program requires airlines to reach 70% SAF minimum supply targets by 2050.
China boosts trade-war toolkit with cross-border investment overhaul
- Unifying and strengthening cross-border investment rules will help China fight potential trade wars with the US and Europe.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,462/oz vs US$4,466/oz previous
Gold ETFs 98.2moz vs 98.3moz previous
Platinum US$1,883/oz vs US$1,881/oz previous
Palladium US$1,304/oz vs US$1,312/oz previous
Silver US$72.5/oz vs US$73.1/oz previous
Silver ETFs 788.3moz vs 788.4moz previous
Rhodium US$8,150/oz vs US$8,250/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,722/t vs US$13,748/t previous
Aluminium US$3,643/t vs US$3,687/t previous
Nickel US$18,565/t vs US$18,605/t previous
Zinc US$3,565/t vs US$3,572/t previous
Lead US$2,009/t vs US$2,009/t previous
Tin US$54,115/t vs US$55,600/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$94.7/bbl vs US$96.8/bbl previous
IG interview: Oil, LNG and helium – what the Middle East conflict means for energy markets (link)
- Crude oil prices edged lower going into the weekend on positive indications that the ongoing US and Iran negotiations are gathering momentum towards a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices continued their upward trajectory this week on improving market sentiment, as the EIA reported a 95bcf w/w storage build to 2,578bcf. US inventories are just above last year’s level and 6% above the five-year average as LNG export capacity fell 10bcf w/w to 111bcf on 29 LNG departures (-3 w/w).
Natural Gas €49.2/MWh vs €49.0/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $85.8/lb vs $85.9/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$101.8/t vs US$101.7/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$491.0/t vs US$491.1/t
HCC FOB Australia US$246.5/t vs US$245.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$147.8/t vs US$147.8/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$103,150/t vs US$103,310/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,997/t vs US$24,130/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,530/t vs US$2,550/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,705/mtu vs US$1,705/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$228/lb vs US$233/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$6.0/lb vs US$6.0/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.5/kg vs US$27.5/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$240/t vs US$240/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vs US$2,809/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,159/t vs US$1,159/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,075.0/kg vs US$4,025.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$31.0/lb vs US$31.0/lb
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -2.5% | -1.7% | Freeport-McMoRan | -1.3% | 5.8% |
| Rio Tinto | -1.9% | -0.6% | Vale | -1.8% | -4.7% |
| Glencore | -1.4% | 6.0% | Newmont Mining | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Anglo American | -1.6% | 0.4% | Fortescue | -2.3% | -8.0% |
| Antofagasta | -1.3% | 1.4% | Teck Resources | 0.2% | 2.7% |
Company news:
Almonty Industries (ALM US) US$19, Mkt Cap US$5.9bn – Up to US$800m convertible note offering
- The Company is raising US$700m via convertible senior unsecured notes with an option to expand by additional US$100m.
- The interest rate, conversion ratio and other terms of the notes to be announced at the pricing of the offering.
- Net proceeds to be used for:
- Refinance existing debt
- Working capital and general corporate purposes including M&A
- Capped call transactions designed to raise conversion premium and reduce potential share count dilution.
- The Company is tungsten producer operating the Panasqueira underground mine in Portugal (~60kmtu pa) and recently reopened Sangdong underground operation (Phase 1 ~230kmtu pa).
- Portfolio of tungsten projects/mines also includes Los Santos and Valtreixal in Spain and Gentung in the US (MT).
Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 24.85p, Mkt Cap £4.62m – Early conversion and redemption of a portion of its recently issued Convertible Loan Notes
(Aterian holds 100% of Agdz Copper-Silver Project in Morocco)
- Aterian Plc report the early conversion and redemption of a portion of its recently issued Convertible Loan Notes through the issue of new shares in the company following a conversion notice from a CLN holder.
- Management have approved the redemption and conversion of £80,000 of the convertible through the issue of 320,000 new shares at 25p/s
- The company will now have 19,420,000 shares in issue..
- Aterian recently reported Lithosquare, which is developing machine learning AI for geology is to invest a €1m into selected projects in Botswana and Morocco.
- Lithosquare will invest €1.0m this year into nine selected projects earning an initial 15% interest and associated NSR in each of the projects.
- The discovery of “High-value intercepts and JORC-qualifying results increase potential equity and NSR interests for Lithosquare”
- The transaction implies an initial notional jv valuation benchmark of approximately £5.8m across the nine selected projects
- Initial funding for this season’s exploration programme has been agreed on the priority targets in Botswana and Morocco.
- Morocco, 1,500m drilling + ongoing trenching, geophysics and AI- assisted target refinement to focus on
- Agdz – drilling
- Azrar – drilling
- Tata
- Botswana, Geochemical and soil sampling + drone magnetic and geophysical surveys inc. IP and electromagnetic surveys;
- KCB (Kalahari Copper Belt) 1,200m of scout drilling supported by geophysical and geochemical programmes
- Target generation and prioritisation work
- Drill testing of high-priority targets.
*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc
Resolute Mining (RSG AU) A$1.1, Mkt Cap A$2.4bn – Syama production guided lower logistics disruptions in Mali
- The Company reports on logistical and supply chain issues at the Syama Gold Mine, Mali.
- Disruptions developed over the past four weeks relating to significant security challenges seen in late April and May.
- Syama production is expected to be lower than planned in 2QCY26 – 30koz vs 40-45koz before.
- Syama full year production is expected at the lower end of the 195-210koz guidance.
- The downgrade relates to delivery road security issues in parts of Mali delaying arrival of equipment to mine higher grade sulphide ore zones in the A21 open pit.
- Intermittent blasting in the underground due to a lack of explosives also affecting production with increased use of lower grade stockpiles for the mill feed.
- Three week maintenance shutdown of the sulphide plant and roaster deferred to mid-June from previously planned May.
- Mako (Senegal) operation treating stockpiles remains on track for full year guidance (~60koz).
- Doropo (Cote d’Ivoire) remains on schedule with development works ongoing.
- The stock was down 5% in Australia.
URU Metals* (URU LN) 5.71p, Mkt cap £5.5m – Further refinement of geophysics and ground survey data ahead of drilling on the Zeb Nickel Project
- URU Metals reports further refinement of its drill targets at the Zeb Nickel Project in South Africa, where the Company is targeting nickel-copper-PGE sulphides within an interpreted magmatic feeder system.
- Target 1 has been confirmed as the priority follow-up target.
- Target 1 was first identified from airborne electromagnetic data and has now been strengthened by ground geophysics, giving the Company a better-defined target for drill planning.
- Target 2 data shows a more complex picture but also confirms underlying magnetic bodies associated with both the northern and southern Target 2 areas.
- Combining data from the airborne electromagnetics with the ground programme helps to rank targets ahead of the next phase of drilling.
- The Target 2 results will now be ranked against the wider target pipeline at Zeb Nickel to see how well it fits.
- “The next phase of drilling will remain flexible and will be designed to test the best-ranked targets across the Project.”
- Target 2 shows a magnetic response and weak ground electromagnetic response within the broader Zeb Nickel feeder system and is now considered a follow-up area rather than a primary target..
- Further work may include refined modelling, ground checking and possible scout drilling, depending on how Target 2 ranks against Target 1 and other targets across the Project.
- Drilling may target “both Platreef-style nickel-copper-PGE targets and higher-grade massive sulphide targets associated with the interpreted feeder system.”
- The team will determine final drill-hole sites and depths after the integration of all the new ground geophysical data has been integrated into the Company’s 3D geological model.
- Target 1 indicates a potential for the accumulation of massive nickel-copper-PGE sulphides to >800m.
- Previous drilling has already confirmed semi-massive sulphide mineralisation at Zeb, including higher-grade nickel-copper-PGE intersections beneath and around the historical open-pit nickel resource, including the following notable intersections:
- 2.27m at 0.27% Ni, 0.17% Cu,
- 2.27 g/t 3PGE+Au in Zone 2,
- 0.70m at 0.65% Ni and 0.40% Cu in Zone 3.
- These intersections demonstrate that the Zeb system hosts the style of sulphide mineralisation typically targeted in world-class mineralised magmatic conduit systems.
- Mineralisation remains open both along strike and at depth, significantly expanding the project’s potential.
- The broader geological model remains compelling. Zeb Nickel hosts an interpreted chonolith-style feeder system linking the Uitloop ultramafic bodies which is a setting considered favourable for the accumulation of nickel-copper-PGE sulphides.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
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No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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