In a lively Share Talk conversation, Zak Mir and Christopher Nicholson, Managing Director and Head of Research at ACF Equity Research, lay out a mix of market observations, personal anecdotes and the odd rant. The main themes are distilled below, and we describe why they matter to investors, sharing a few practical and prudent takeaways.
We ranged from clocks, Brexit, Political Strategy and Thatcher -era banter to what moves the gold price and which junior miners deserve attention. The conversation mixes market analysis, a few rants, a slice of history and practical investor advice. Below I pull together the main themes, explain what matters, and list the signals investors should be watching next.
Opening notes: time zones, summer and a bit of cheek
We started with a bit of light-hearted British pride over GMT and a suggestion to keep British summertime forever. It is the kind of banter that sets the tone: conversational, slightly irritable at politics, and fond of the summer. The mood is useful to remember because the political commentary that follows is delivered with the same sharp, personal voice.
Gold: is the recent move structural?
One of the core arguments put forward is that gold may have jumped to a new structural level rather than simply spiking on a short-term scare. Large research houses have been publishing bold targets; some sound like marketing, but there is a defensible intellectual case too.
“Gold has jumped up to a new structural level… the market doesn’t really expect it to fall back through the $3,000 or $3,500 level.”
The argument runs like this:
- Gold spent years rangebound and then rallied. Commodities often behave like that: flat for long periods, then reset to a higher range.
- If the recent move reflects a catch-up to a longer-run median relationship with the dollar, then downside risk may be limited compared with past periods.
- Yet we must be honest: a lot of big-bank headlines are PR. Treat big, round price targets with healthy scepticism and look at the drivers behind them.
What influenced the recent gold consolidation
The 6-7% pullback in gold after the run-up was the product of at least one obvious factor and some slightly less obvious considerations.:
- Profit taking by investors who had participated in the rally.
- A slightly stronger US dollar, which makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers, so reducing demand.
- Some easing in geopolitical tensions. Markets priced a marginally reduced safe-haven bid as talks or pauses appeared in several flashpoints.
- US inflation data came in a touch cooler than expected, which increased the odds of Fed easing. Lower policy rates are supportive for gold, but the dynamics are nuanced and episodic.
- Significant ETF outflows. Watch ETF flows closely; they can amplify moves both up and down.
Three things to watch for the next stage in gold
- Central bank buying — official demand can be structural and persistent. Strong buying by central banks supports a higher baseline.
- Direction of the US dollar — a falling dollar is usually supportive for gold, a rising dollar headwinds.
- Inflation and macro data — real rates matter. If inflation surprises higher or rate cut odds fade, gold can get a fresh boost. If inflation cools and rate cut expectations shrink, pressure can build.
ACF is comfortable maintaining its current 2025 $4,000 gold target while they refine a 2026 forecast. That number is not gospel; it is a working assumption built from the above factors.
Gold and companies: juniors, explorers and a few names
With a rising gold price, watch the companies that can move from micro cap to mid cap quickly. Precious metals equities can re-rate rapidly when sentiment and the underlying commodity price both turn.
Names discussed as interesting opportunities:
- Perpeta (US Nasdaq listed) — previously identified near $2, trading much higher now. Primary gold asset is in Idaho; strategic upside is antimony exposure. Antimony has defence and energy storage use cases, which gives Perpeta a two-way appreciation path.
- Sarabi (UK listed) — Brazilian assets, modest market cap today but ramp-up guidance and permitting milestones could be transformative. Typical risks apply: permitting timing, costs and country concentration.
- Thor Explorations and ACG Metals — examples of explorers moving up the value chain as production and scale increase. These are the types of stories that can multiply in value if the execution and market conditions line up.
- Companies also on ACF’s list for a possible deeper dig or coverage for today but not got to included Cassiar (GLDC.V) and Cygnus (CY5.AX),
Two important investor points when looking at juniors:
- Look for companies with clear, credible capital plans and a pathway to production or re-rating. Production growth targets and permitting milestones are the operational metrics that matter.
- Understand the commodity sensitivity. A higher gold price helps, but costs, royalties and execution risks still determine returns.
- Look for companies with a full integrated strategic communications strategy, otherwise it does not matter how good they are, they will always underperform.
FTSE 100 at a record high and what it says about politics
The FTSE 100 hit a record close, which led to a lively debate on what that actually signals about the UK economy and politics. The key point is that the FTSE 100 is heavily weighted to multinational earners. When sterling is weak or when global growth is favourable, these companies can do well even as the domestic economy struggles.
“Every point that the FTSE 100 goes up is a defeat for socialism and a triumph for capitalism.”
That statement is deliberately provocative. The counter arguments explored and summarized below that a Labour government should make were largely practical:
- The market is signalling that large listed companies can absorb higher borrowing, or at least the market believes they will manage national finances in a way that avoids systemic collapse.
- Equity markets do not map neatly onto domestic living standards. A rising FTSE does not necessarily mean households feel better off.
- There are political incentives at play. Different governments have used policy to reshape voter constituencies by encouraging property ownership or by expanding welfare dependency. Both sides have employed tools that change political behaviour.
Privatisation and a railways anecdote
There was a debate over whether privatisation under Margaret Thatcher “sold the family silver”. The counterpoint was drawn from experience with executing major infrastructure projects. The Channel Tunnel and modern rolling stock were offered as examples where private capital and management drove improvements that a nationalised industry had struggled to deliver for decades and arguably would never have delivered..
A pragmatic verdict: privatisation is not uniformly good or bad. It works when it brings long-term capital and accountability to poorly performing public assets. It fails when political meddling or short-term incentives undermine investment and integration.
Broker research, independent research and how companies should choose coverage
This is a long-standing and important theme. The difference between independent research and broker-sponsored research matters for both companies and investors.
Key points to remember:
- Broker research often accompanies capital raises and trading activity. Its commercial model creates incentives that are different from independent research houses.
- Independent research adds value by consistently derisking a story over time, providing continuity and credibility that institutional investors respect.
- If a company pays for coverage in stock rather than upfront cleared funds (cash) in advance for annual coverage, investors should be sceptical. Funding structure changes motivations and perceived independence.
- Institutional investors are cynical about deal-driven research. If coverage appears only around fundraises and then disappears, that damages credibility and frustrates investors, they don’t easily forget.
How to pick a research partner:
- Ask about philosophy and independence. Does the research house publish regularly on a stock and stick to a coherent approach?
- Look at the quality and tone of past notes. Can you see genuine analysis and tough questions, or just marketing copy/ AI slop?
- Consider reputation. Who does the firm work with, and how do those clients perform over time, does the research firm attempt to disincentivize poor behavior by withdrawing coverage or lowering valuation / forecasts? You can tell a lot by the company a company keeps.
The Laffer curve, taxes and a cheeky alternative
There was a personal highlight: meeting Dr Arthur Laffer and discussing the classic Laffer curve notion that raising tax beyond a certain point reduces revenue. The sceptical take offered was that current political intentions may not be to optimise revenue but to reallocate or ‘confiscate’ wealth for policy ends.
“They will never have tax below the optimum level of raising money. They will always have it well above that.”
An alternative tongue-in-cheek hypothesis offered was the “Zack curve”: once taxes reach a certain high level, some people simply have to work more or restructure their economics to survive, which can perversely, increase activity in certain sectors (for example, selling assets, taking corporate roles, or moving into listed equity). That is more a commentary on behavioural responses than an economic law.
Practical takeaways for investors
- For gold exposure, keep an eye on central bank buying, dollar direction and inflation/real rate dynamics. ETF flows can move the market quickly.
- In the gold equities space, prioritise management credibility, permitting milestones and cash strategy. And critically, a comprehensive (and open) communications strategy. Small caps can multiply, but execution risk is very real.
- When selecting research, value independence and consistency over flashy one-off publicity. Ask how research is funded and how persistent the coverage will be. Look for at least 12 months and in an ideal world a ‘life time’ strategy.
- Remember the FTSE 100 story is not a full readout of domestic economic health. Large listed companies have different drivers to households and small businesses.
- Be wary of headline price targets without a clear statement of assumptions. Use them as conversation starters, not investment commandments.
Conclusion
Markets are noisy and driven by a mix of fundamentals, policy and sentiment. Gold has structural arguments in its favour today but remains sensitive to liquidity, ETF flows and macro surprises. Junior miners can deliver transformational returns as the commodity price turns, but due diligence on management, capital and communications strategy and operational milestones is essential.
Above all, invest with a balanced portfolio approach, insist on clear evidence of competence and capital strategy, and favour independent analysis over purely promotional narratives. Make sure there is as genuine risk table as well as an investment case, whether for a short or a long case.
Independent, expert research remains one of the best tools for separating genuine opportunities from fashionable setups.
