In a lively Share Talk conversation, Zak Mir and Christopher Nicholson, Managing Director and Head of Research at ACF Equity Research, lay out a mix of market observations, personal anecdotes and the odd rant — everything from the GLP‑1 obesity therapy revolution to gold, bonds, UK fiscal politics and niche metals like graphite.
The main themes are distilled below, and we describe why they matter to investors, sharing a few practical and prudent takeaways.
Contents
- GLP‑1s and Mounjaro: a lifestyle and cultural change in the making that has became an investible theme
- Pricing power, crazy access rules and the key ‘sports psychology’ attribute of weight‑loss therapies, that might be at the heart of their success
- How to think about investing around new therapies
- Gold, central banks and the Fed question
- Bonds, politics and why markets reacted differently to Starmer than to Truss
- Metals to watch: graphite, Metals One and the small‑cap opportunity
- Practical takeaways for viewers, readers and investors
GLP‑1s and Mounjaro: a lifestyle revolution
If you’ve been paying attention to health headlines this year or indeed just listening to your friends, you’ve probably heard of the GLP‑1 agonist and GIP class of drugs — the weight‑loss treatments that have reshaped conversations about lifestyle, health care and consumer behaviour and we think, culture. Mounjaro (tirzepatide) from Eli Lilly, the “twincretin” (GLP-1 and GIP) is the headline act: it delivers rapid, significant weight loss (and Type 2 Diabetes treatment) and a large cohort of people are seeing meaningful changes in weeks.
There’s a clear crossover from medicine into lifestyle and consumer spending. Fewer customers for clothing at larger sizes, changes in hospitality demand, and even a perhaps counterintuitive shift in gym business dynamics. For some people the drug is literally a painless way to lose weight; for others it’s a psychological reset that changes eating habits and confidence. For others with Type 2 Diabetes and dysfunctional hormone regulation it is a potential life saver.
“”You don’t have to do anything. Just sit there like a big blob and lose weight.””
Pricing power, access and the psychological angle
The immediate story that shook users was a significant price increase from Eli Lilly on some packages. When a therapy delivers dramatic, sticky results and faces limited supply, pricing power follows — and that raises questions about accessibility and fairness, especially where public health systems like the NHS are concerned. For example, the extraordinary anomaly that Type 2 Diabetes and or clinical obesity is just not enough in the UK to get an NHS prescription for Mounjaro, which is clinically approved for both conditions and is relatively inexpensive compared to many NICE ‘banned’ drugs..
Key points on the psychology and access side:
- These therapies can feel like a mind‑altering drug for appetite and cravings — many users report they no longer feel the remorse that used to follow indulgences.
- That psychological effect can be transformational: better self‑esteem, greater willingness to go to the gym, and habits that may reduce the need for maintenance dosing in a subset of patients.
- Access is unequal. Private payers are getting treatment while many qualifying patients on the NHS wait — a social and political problem that won’t disappear quickly.
Investment implications: how to think about GLP‑1s
From an investor’s perspective these therapies have a lot of attractive features:
- Pricing power, stickiness and perhaps maintenance dosing mean durable revenue streams for successful developers.
- Large potential markets across multiple indications — weight loss, diabetes and possibly broader metabolic or inflammatory conditions — make the upside significant.
- Maintenance dosing implies recurring revenue rather than a one‑off treatment period sale.
- For the diabetes sub sector you could use this research note from ACF Equity Research https://bit.ly/RegenerativeMedicine-Diabetes-TreatmentandInnovation
That said, caution is needed. Longitudinal safety data will continue to roll out and accumulate over many years, reimbursement policies can change, and the competitive landscape will evolve. If you’re considering exposure:
- Prefer diversified plays (ETFs/exposure through larger healthcare names) unless you have deep conviction in a single developer.
- Look for companies with clear regulatory strategy and a path to broad reimbursement.
- Remember the tradeoff: early entrants can generate huge returns, but safety or access issues can be binary market events.
Gold: the Fed, central banks and where prices might go
Gold is having another moment in what has become an ~36 month rally story. Several banks and strategists have put ambitious new targets on the table — Goldman Sachs’ $5,000/oz forecast grabbed headlines; ACF has a $4,000 target by year end 2025 (having had a reliable call record on gold since the rally start https://bit.ly/GoldPoisedtoShine) — non-US central bank buying has seen a structural change. For the first time in recent memory, gold holdings sit ahead of euros in aggregate non-US central bank reserves.
Why gold is getting attention now:
- Central banks buying gold as a reserve/inflation hedge.
- Retail and ETF demand strength is strong, supply (mined gold) can’t flex quickly.
- Political risk around central bank independence — any hint that the Fed will compromise independence (for example under political pressure) tends to weaken the dollar and push investors to gold as a hedge.
How to approach it:
- Have a balanced allocation: bullion/physical if you can store it, ETFs for liquidity, and equities for leverage.
- On the equity side expect volatility and look for companies with real resources and credible management — beware of operators who are “pretending to drill”.
- If you wait for perfect timing you often miss returns; a phased approach can be sensible.
Bonds, markets and the political backdrop
The bond market gets trotted out as a leading indicator of disaster as often as it gets ignored — but it does tell you something about confidence in government finances and inflation. Historically, states have tended to inflate debt away rather than repay it in full. That historical trend (for the UK you can go back to around 1100, though we go back around 300 years in this discussion) is important context for equity investors.
On the UK political front we discussed why markets punished Liz Truss hard but have been less dramatic with the current government. Communication and credibility matter. Markets react not just to the numbers but to how the government engages with the market, whether monetary policy looks independent, and whether fiscal plans are funded.
One counterintuitive observation we argued over: markets often dislike unfunded tax cuts more than expensive spending e.g. on the NHS, that is funded by higher taxation. In short, unfunded giveaways create uncertainty; funded spending, even if large, at least offers a plan. Well aimed, well timed ‘unfunded’ tax cuts generate growth, they should be favored by bond markets, but they are not because markets do not trust politicians ability to manage timing or conflicts of interest (electoral mandate).
Metals: graphite, Metals One and company deal flow
Graphite is underappreciated. It isn’t about pencils — it’s about steel production (refractories) and battery anodes for electric vehicles. Pricing is opaque and offtake deals are bespoke, but demand growth dynamics for battery raw materials and underlying significant though less exciting steel production are real.
On small caps, the Metals One story is an example of a nimble company carving a niche. By becoming the go‑to partner for deals and dealmaking they’ve created optionality and flow that many juniors lack. If you’re looking for commodity exposure:
- Understand the real end‑use (EVs, steel, industrial demand) rather than the headline commodity name.
- Be wary of short‑term rallies without fundamental backing — many miners spike on hope and then fade. Look for research coverage that is not funded by stock or options or other leverage.
- Look for operators who can source deals and have credible pathways to production or monetisation.
Other practical notes and a few personal asides
A couple of lighter but telling themes cropped up in the conversation:
- Personal milestones do matter. A five‑year work anniversary or a birthday can be oddly grounding in the grind of markets (Top performing leaders, B2B sales and HR managers know this).
- Regulation and tax rules that are over‑complex (the episode mentioned a housing stamp duty mix‑up) discourage participation — whether it’s politics, home buying, simple compliance or investing.
- Tokenisation is an emerging theme: some miners are experimenting with tokenised assets. It’s interesting, but expect UK regulatory scrutiny and an eventual convergence toward established securities rules, probably in line with the US’s SEC 9 July 2025 “Enchanting but not Magical” rules and positioning paper.
Conclusion — balanced curiosity beats fashion
There are clear, investible trends here: GLP‑1 therapeutics with sticky demand and pricing power, structurally higher interest in gold, and niche commodity opportunities like graphite. The common thread is that stories with strong fundamentals and visible revenue paths, backed up with accessible quality investment research are the ones to prefer.
If you take one thing away: be balanced. Use diversified vehicles where appropriate (ETFs, some physical exposure for gold), and reserve direct equity bets for names where you can verify management, resources and a credible route to monetisation. Independent, sceptical analysis providing both the upside advantages and, importantly the downside risks or counter arguments will help you separate genuine opportunities from fashionable setups that deserve only a small, cautious allocation.
Quick checklist for readers
- GLP‑1 investments: prefer diversified exposure unless you have deep conviction.
- Gold: consider a mix of physical/ETFs/equities for different risk profiles.
- Bonds vs equities: watch central bank independence and fiscal credibility — they drive flows into safe assets like gold.
- Commodities (graphite/rare metals): focus on end‑use demand and quality of operator.
- Tokenisation/crypto tie‑ups: interesting, but expect regulatory pushback and classify them properly as equity or securities in your analysis.
Thanks for reading. If you want the full conversation, the original Share Talk episode with Zak Mir and Christopher Nicholson of ACF Equity Research has more colour, banter and on‑the‑ground examples — but the core lessons above should help you think about where to look next and how to position a balanced portfolio.
Conclusion
If you’re considering exposure, do so with a balanced portfolio approach, insist on clear evidence of competence and capital strategy, and be cautious with stories that require perfect market conditions to succeed. Independent/independently minded, expert analysis remains invaluable in separating genuine opportunities from fashionable setups.
Actively seek out independent/independently minded, expert analysis rather than relying solely on mainstream media narratives.
