Zak Mir takes a charting look at S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Bolt Projects, Contineum, Gaxos, JX Luxventure, PSQ, Real Messenger, Upland, VisionWave, X4, Wellgistics.
In today’s market rundown, I walk through the major indexes and a selection of US-listed small caps showing interesting technical setups. This post captures the key levels, momentum signals and short- to medium-term targets I discussed, and adds brief explanations so you can follow the reasoning even if you don’t have the charts in front of you.
Market overview: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100
Both the S&P and the Nasdaq are showing early signs of technical weakness after recent strength. Here are the highlights and what to watch next.
S&P 500
- Price action: We saw an end-of-day close back below the old July resistance at 6,427 — a classic bull-trap signal.
- Immediate support: risk of a test down to the April channel floor near 6,380; below that lies the August support zone around 6,212.
- Doomsday level: I’m not currently expecting a move below 6,012 in the near term.
- Context: The S&P had previously cleared the record high at 6,480 and there was bullish sentiment pushing targets as high as 6,700 into next month.
- Technical driver: a bearish divergence is starting to show — price made higher highs in August while momentum has softened — and that divergence is often what initiates retracements.
Nasdaq 100
- Resistance: the April resistance line near 24,000 has held so far.
- Support: the 50-day moving average and the lower bound of the rising channel sit around 22,800 — this is the zone to watch.
- Momentum: similar to the S&P, bearish divergence has been visible and that helps explain the pullback while the market remains below 24,000.
Stock-by-stock technical rundowns
Below I summarize the setups I discussed, listing the key technical levels, why I like (or worry about) each setup, and a short-term target where relevant.
Bolt Projects
- Price action: significant intraday selling around the $13–$14 area created pressure, suggesting supply at higher levels.
- Moving averages: the 200-day moving average sits near $5.97 — holding above it keeps the bullish edge intact.
- Target: while cautious of the recent selling, the rising channel still points toward a potential move up to about $19 by the end of next month if momentum returns.
Contineum
- Structure: rising trend channel in place; the top of the channel is currently near $11.
- Support: comfortably above the 200-day moving average around $8.33.
- Signals: price gapped through the 50-day line and resistance held on the follow-through; the RSI shows an extended uptrend — encouraging signs for continuation.
Gaxos
- Setup: a rising trend channel with the stock trading above its long-term moving average (200-day ≈ $1.53).
- Target: the channel top points to roughly $3 by the end of next month if the uptrend persists.
JX Luxventure
- Breakout: the stock has pushed through a recent neckline/resistance around $1.
- Structure: another rising trend channel — an RSI uptrend is backing the breakout.
- Target: look for the channel top near $1.95 by the end of next month, assuming the breakout holds.
PSQ Holdings
- Pattern: forming a broadening triangle base; this structure often produces sizable moves when the range resolves.
- Levels: hope to see the shares advance toward the triangle top and the 200-day MA area around $2.75.
- Signals: a gap-close buy signal has occurred — staying above the gap top near $0.94 supports a move toward $2.70–$2.80 over the next month.
Real Messenger
- Momentum: shares have pushed through recent resistance and are approaching the 200-day moving average.
- Target: the top of the rising channel sits up toward $8 — that’s the short-term target while price remains above the newly formed support.
- Note: the chart shows a spike day (a sharp intraday peak) which is now being absorbed — action above the broken resistance will be important to confirm strength.
Upland Software
- Attempts: the stock is on its second or third try since May to break higher out of its trading range.
- Range: the top of that range is around $3.15; near-term support (recent resistance turned support) sits around $2.40.
- Outlook: staying above $2.40 would keep the breakout thesis alive toward $3.15 and beyond.
VisionWave
- Channel: price met the floor of a rising channel established since late last month; that floor sits roughly at $7.40.
- Key level: remaining on the right side of $8 (recent neckline) supports a bullish continuation.
- Target: the channel points to a possible run as high as $16 by the end of next month if the rebound holds.
X4 Pharmaceuticals
- Structure: in a rising trend channel with a recent consolidation above the 50-day after a gap-high reversal.
- Support: recent support sits near $2.40; a break below an end-of-day close through $3.40 (recent resistance) would be a cautionary sign.
- Momentum: the RSI has rebounded well above neutral 50, which supports the bullish case.
- Target: channel top near $5.80 by the end of next month if the momentum holds.
Wellgistics
- Pattern: potential broadening triangle base.
- Divergence: price made lower lows for August while the RSI formed higher lows — a bullish divergence that often precedes reversals.
- Key levels: the rising 50-day line is around $0.98 — reclaiming and holding above that would increase the chance of a move toward $2 in the coming month.
Quick primer: technical terms I referenced
- Bull trap — a false breakout where price appears to break out higher but then reverses back below key levels, trapping buyers.
- Bearish divergence — when price makes higher highs but momentum indicators (like RSI) make lower highs; a warning sign that the uptrend is losing strength.
- RSI — the Relative Strength Index, a momentum oscillator where readings above 70 are overbought and below 30 are oversold; crossovers around 50 help identify momentum shifts.
- 50-day / 200-day moving averages — commonly used trend filters; trading above these averages is typically bullish, below is bearish.
- Gap-close buy signal — when a price gap is filled or when price gaps up and the pullback respects the gap area, it can act as a confirmation for buyers.
Conclusion
The tape is showing early signs of distribution in the majors, driven by bearish divergences. That doesn’t mean every stock will roll over — several small caps still have clean rising channels and momentum supporting higher targets. Key things to watch next: holds and fails around the S&P 6,380–6,427 zone, Nasdaq 24,000, and individual stocks’ relationships to their 50- and 200-day moving averages. If you trade these setups, manage risk around the levels noted above and watch RSI and gap behavior for confirmation.
I’ll be updating charts again tomorrow with fresh levels and any changes in momentum. Stay disciplined and trade what the market shows you, not what you hope it will do.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
