National Grid’s annual summer outlook stated that Britain will have enough gas supplies to meet its demand from April through September. They will also ship more gas to Europe because of low storage levels.
The total UK gas demand is expected to be 34 billion cubic meters (bcm), in the six months of summer, compared to 31.9 bcm during the same time last year. The forecast for supply, mainly from the North Sea, Norway and Iceland, is at 34 bcm, compared with 31.5 bcm in the same period last year.
The UK only receives 3% of its gas supplies from Russia while the European Union rely on Russia for 40%. Many European countries have stated that they are decreasing their dependence on Russian gas after the conflict in Ukraine.
A Russian decree requiring foreign buyers to pay gas shipments in roubles from April 1st, or risk going without Russian supplies, was issued last month. Concerns about supply have been raised by the refusal of most European buyers to pay in roubles.
National Grid stated that this uncertainty, along with high gas prices, and low EU storage means that higher volumes may be needed to fill EU storage to the minimum level in preparation for winter 2022/23.
Britain can export gas via interconnectors to Europe. National Grid anticipates that the UK will average exports to Europe at 5.4 bcm. This is an increase of 0.7 bcm in the summer period last year.
European storage levels finished the winter season at 26.5 bcm at the end of March, which is below the 5-year average.
According to the grid operator, liquefied natural gas (LNG), will be more important than ever this year. The grid operator expects that LNG supplies will average 6.4 billion cubic meters this summer, as opposed to 5.1 billion cubic meters last summer.
A separate outlook from National Grid’s Electricity System Operator, (ESO) shows that peak electricity demand for this summer will be 32.8 gigawatts. This is slightly more than the 32.5 GW last summer. This compares with around 50 GW during the winter months.
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