Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude, Cap-XX, Cerillion, Delta Gold, Goldstone, Gfinity, Galantas, Helix, Northern Bear, Pantheon, Pulsar, Serica, Tungsten West, and Tap Global.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations.
FTSE 100: under pressure, but the support map matters
The FTSE 100 is sitting within a falling trend channel and is still below a key resistance area around the 10,020 level. That resistance matters because it is tied to the market’s ability to break out of the recent pattern.
If the market can’t reclaim 10,020, the focus shifts to whether the recent swing low around 9,839 can hold as support.
- Support watch: 9,839 first, then the channel floor near the post-December support zone.
- Potential downside scenario: a move towards the 200-day moving average around 9,637.
- Why another dip is plausible: RSI is around 38, still not deeply oversold (the 30 level is the “properly oversold” zone), which leaves room for at least one more retest of lows.
If 10,020 is taken out, the first logical upside target becomes the old floor of the channel near 10,220, though that may be a tougher resistance to chew through immediately given the broader tone.
DAX: gaps, weakness, and resistance overhead
The DAX has been a messy read with lots of gap movement. From a charting perspective, though, it is still relatively clean: it has found itself below the channel floor and below key resistance around the 23,000 area.
- RSI: mostly around the 40 region and below neutral 50, but not oversold.
- Expectation: when RSI is weak but not washed out, the market often has room for another downside push.
So the working assumption is: while below 23,000, downside remains the more likely path.
Dow: oversold bounce risk, but the 200-day line still calls the tune
The Dow is trading right at the bottom of a falling trend channel, and that creates a trap for both bulls and bears. Why? Because “near support” can still mean “not done yet” if the market decides to extend the channel.
The key support references are:
- Near-term: September support.
- Downside “if it breaks”: last August low around 43,300.
- Resistance to reclaim: the 200-day moving average around 46,646 on an end-of-day closing basis.
One reason to be careful is that the Dow is currently oversold. Oversold markets can rebound quickly, and the last bounce already proved that point. If you are cautious, the rule of thumb here is simple: don’t assume bull mode until price can reclaim the 200-day line.
Bitcoin and Ethereum: not oversold enough, and trend levels still heavy
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is back below the 50-day moving average. The market never managed to reach the top of its falling trend channel and is now fighting the downside risk from two directions.
- 50-day level: around 68,800 (below the channel line area).
- Immediate risk: 65,000 retest, which has already been probed in the last 24 hours.
- Lower projection target: around 57,000 (supported by a trendline projection from earlier in the month).
- Earlier support memory: February support around 61,000.
A key behavioural warning: since roughly October, rallies through the 50-day line have often been opportunities to short. That pattern can be profitable, but it can also be emotionally difficult when price moves sharply against you. So the practical takeaway is to respect the 50-day level until proven otherwise.
Ethereum
Ethereum has also been battling the 50-day moving average and has broken an uptrend line in the RSI window. Interestingly, the 50-day moving average is still quite flat, which can translate into more sideways churn rather than immediate straight-line downside.
- 50-day moving average: around 2042.
- Next retest risk: 1900, which has effectively been the main support shelf.
Gold: value bid is present, but technical resistance is the gate
Gold is trying to regroup after failing to hold the earlier roll support in the 4,400 to 4,500 area (early February). There was also a push below the recent spike around 4,600.
The setup to monitor:
- Potential retest: the 200-day moving average around 4,418.
- Resistance to break: the 4,600 recent peak area (a key “unlock” level).
Fundamentally, gold’s long-term tendency is still upward for many traders who treat it as historic value. But the near-term behaviour is also influenced by risk events elsewhere. The interpretation here is: people sell gold at times to fund broader “cover” needs, so gold may require a technical breakout to behave like a clean uptrend again.
WTI crude: the tailwind everyone is watching
Crude oil is the standout supportive force. The market closed strong and is pushing through its rising trend channel. The crude picture is often a lever for multiple sectors, which is why it shows up again and again in this list of “chart winners”.
- Magical pivot zone: around 92 (seen as a recent upside or downside trigger).
- Trend channel target: towards $100 on the chart.
- Where the market seems to be: spreads are pointing to WTI around $100 plus with reference levels near 110 in the commentary.
When oil is strong, it often improves the odds for energy-sensitive AIM charts, and that is reflected in the “heroes” section below.
The practical trader’s checklist: what to respect across markets
Even though this note spans FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and a basket of AIM names, the “rules” being applied are consistent. If you want a quick framework to keep you grounded:
- Moving averages matter: 50-day and 200-day lines are used repeatedly as regime filters (bull mode vs not).
- RSI location matters: RSI around 38 or 40 suggests “weak and still room to go” rather than guaranteed reversal.
- Support and resistance define the plan: identify the nearest support (recent swing lows, prior peaks turned supports) and the next resistance to reclaim.
- Oil as a sector driver: rising WTI tends to lift sentiment in energy-linked names and supports the broader risk appetite for certain charts.
Bottom line: indices are testing downside structures with RSI not yet fully oversold everywhere, while oil is acting like a tailwind. In individual shares, the “heroes” are largely the ones that have bounced from the right moving average base and are reclaiming key resistance levels without breaking their trend structure.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
