Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude, Active Energy, Cizzle, First Class, Helium One, Insig AI, Karelian, Kosmos, Mendell, Powerhouse, Strategic Minerals, Tooru, The Works.
Markets are doing that familiar thing where they look oversold, then find a reason to keep sliding just a bit more. The trick is to separate “it might bounce” from “it has actually found support.” This week’s chart set-up is all about key moving averages, RSI pressure and the boundary lines of forming channels.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations.
Below is a concise, trade-focused read of the major indices, crypto, commodities and selected small caps to watch.
Major indices
FTSE 100: oversold risk, but the 200-day area is the battleground
The FTSE 100’s earlier resistance level (around the 9,930 area) is already gone, so attention shifts to what sits underneath it.
The downside risk is framed as a move into the floor of a trend channel, with a worst-case reference around 9,600. That lines up with the 200-day moving average, and the RSI being around 32 means there is at least a day or two of room before the “deep oversold” zone really kicks in.
Importantly, the last time this kind of oversold territory appeared (roughly April last year), price didn’t just dab the support. It went through, then later worked its way back up. So the favoured “bearable” outcome here is a test of the 200-day line, potentially even intraday.
Trading-style levels mentioned:
- Potential entry zones: 9,580 and 9,550 as “catch the low” type areas
- Upside bounce target (if day closes recover): back to 9,930
- Higher upside idea: retest around 10,200 (also linked to the 200-day line behaviour in this charting context)
The risk control question is simple: if you’re looking for a long, you want proof of strength above support, not just a one-day dip.
DAX: structural weakness below broken support, but a clearer bounce case
For the DAX, the “floor of the channel” idea did not hold the way we hoped. Price is now drifting down toward a gap-related target near 21,700.
Key condition: while price is below the level of recently broken support around 22,0xx, the market’s default bias remains defensive.
There’s also a pattern described as three RSI 50 failures, which tends to matter because it signals the market repeatedly cannot regain neutral momentum, even when it tries.
Base case: continue downward until the market tests 21,700.
Best case (bounce permission): a return toward 23,000.
Dow: oversold, under the 200-day, and likely to be support-led
The Dow has fallen into oversold territory and is clearly under its 200-day moving average, which is why it is underperforming compared to other risk gauges.
The nearer reference point is 46,500. Below that, the “old” August support zone near 43,600 is the worst-case destination, with a more realistic range for first defence sitting around 44,000 to 45,000.
This is one of those set-ups where you can get a bounce, but the bounce does not automatically become a trend change unless it reclaims key moving averages and holds them.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin: an “oasis of tranquility” even after trend damage
Bitcoin has broken the uptrend, and the RSI charting signal is not perfect. But price action has still managed to find support in a way that keeps the market calmer than the headlines might suggest.
The first line of support is described around 65,500, associated with a falling daily line. The next idea is to see whether price can show strength by holding above that area.
Upside: the top of a forming trend channel near 77,000, potentially by the end of next month.
Downside: if 65,000 breaks, then the recent swing low becomes the obvious destination.
Ethereum: supported above the falling 50-day, but the ceiling is clear
Ethereum’s picture is broadly similar, but the details matter. Price is supported above the 50-day line (around 2,058 in the units used), which is described as more impressive than typical. The next resistance reference sits around 2,400, and then higher toward 2,650.
There is also a caution baked in: if price peaks and fails again, Ethereum has a tendency to “keep sliding” even after small rallies. So support needs to keep working, not just get touched.
Commodities: gold weakness vs oil’s momentum
Gold: broke down below the 50-day and channel support
Gold is the “watch this space” commodity. The important level is the 50-day line area, which is no longer holding as support. Price instead has broken through the broader channel, dropping to around 40,680.
The risk is a test of the February support near 44,04 (noted as 4404 in the transcript). That would be a meaningful gut-check for bullish positions.
A final nuance mentioned: RSI has been extremely low for a long time, and the suggestion is that this might be a signal for a return to the market rather than endless drift.
Practical bias: wait for a dip toward the 200-day area around 4,087 to look for a more reliable turning point.
WTI (crude oil): a “normal” consolidation that still has upside fuel
Crude oil is treated as fascinating rather than bearish. The current idea is that, if you treat it like a mid consolidation and a bull flag above the broken resistance around the $90 area, the market may be set up for another leg higher.
The near-term range described is roughly $92 to $100, and the upside expectation is another $10 depending on confirmation.
But risk exists: markets can gap at weekends. The immediate condition to watch is whether WTI holds above $92 on closing basis.
Selected small caps
The small-cap section is very “chart trader” in tone: moving averages rising, gaps filled, RSI rebounds, and specific points where the market must prove itself.
Active Energy: Shares are attempting to break a rising 50-day line, targeting 0.11 to 0.12 by the end of next month. Support to hold: the floor of a gap area near 0.07. Rising 50-day and 200-day lines, plus the gap-and-trend structure, are used as the basis for the turnaround idea.
Cizzle Biotechnology: The focus is on staying the right side of roughly 1.9 and pushing toward 3.3 p, potentially by the end of next month. There’s also mention of a golden cross style development, with both 50-day and 200-day lines rising, plus RSI 50 rebounds that support continuation.
First Class Metals: Has been a volatile ride, but the idea is we are in a bear-trap reversal from the low, looking to head up to 3p. Current situation is we hope to remain above the day line of 1.64p.
Helium One: The technical view: bounce above a rising line equals continuation signal behaviour. Targets: 0.8 as initial target with 1.20 as next target. Next theme after that: potential AI-related catalysts coming after helium’s first leg is established (mentioned as “AI is next”).
Insig AI: Falling wedge bottoming idea, with a breakout target around 13 pence, then 16. There is an additional note that price moved above roughly 13.5 to 14 recently.
Karelian Diamond: Karelian exceeded an optimistic red line near 0.82. The current condition: stay above 0.70 pence (old resistance) to attempt a retest of 1 by next month.
Kosmos Energy: has hit a second target at around 220p. Above that, the upper parallel is heading toward 327p. Timeframe suggested: end of next month into mid-May.
Mental Helium: Mental Helium is described as responding well to regular PR. Support is tied to a rising 50-day line around 3.4 p, with a target of 5.34 p initially, and possibly as high as 9 p by the end of next month. Another confirmation clue: three RSI 50 rebounds within the month are described as meaningful continuation signals.
Powerhouse Energy: The note here is bullish divergence: lower price lows for March but higher RSI behaviour. The directional expectation is a move back toward 4.40 to 4.45, with the warning sign being fresh lows.
Strategic Minerals: Strategic Minerals pushed out of a rising trend channel, breaking through 5.3 to 5.4 p and now needing to hold above roughly 5.45 to 5.5. Support levels are framed as needing to stay on the right side of about 5 pence.
Tooru: Tooru is presented as having international expansion in an RNS during the week, with a rising trend channel base around 0.21. Targets: 0.25 initial target (day line reference), 0.22 as the key support “stay on the right side” level. Longer upside timing mentioned: toward late May, but only if support holds.
Works co uk: A gap towards the 200-day line at 44p; above that, looking for the top of the rising trend channel around 55p.
The Works: closing gap toward the 200-day line
The Works is described as having a gap toward the 200-day line near 44 pence. The immediate near-term expectation is a move toward that resistance over coming days, with a rising-trend context while price stays above recent gap zones.
The big takeaway: don’t confuse oversold with reversal
Across indices and crypto, the message is consistent. RSI and oversold readings can create a setup for a bounce, but the market’s confirmation comes from structure:
- Holding support (200-day lines, gap floors, prior swing lows)
- Reclaiming moving-average areas (50-day and 200-day where relevant)
- Respecting the channel boundaries instead of guessing the direction early
If you’re trading this week’s levels, the most important skill is patience. Let support prove itself first, then commit. If it fails, don’t hope. If it holds, you can use the bounce as the opportunity it is meant to be.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
