Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are for the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude Oil, Altona, Capricorn Energy, Cizzle, Karelian, S4 Capital, T42, Tungsten West, and Tertiary Minerals.
Markets feel like they are doing two things at once: large indices are acting cautiously and reactively around major moving averages, while crypto and select AIM stocks are showing much cleaner technical follow-through.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations.
Quick market overview: confirmation beats prediction
The recurring theme across indices is simple: prices are sitting near critical lines like the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That means you can’t really trust intraday noise. What matters is whether the market can produce a clean end-of-day close through (or back under) those reference levels.
Crypto is offering the more constructive signals. Gold is fragile at its moving-average crossroads, and crude oil remains the macro wildcard, currently trading within a defined band rather than breaking out decisively.
Major indices: where bulls need end-of-day closes
FTSE 100: 200-day risk still on the table
FTSE 100 has had a rough month and is still dealing with a key technical “test zone”. The index is down after bouncing near the 200-day line at 9,620. That level has acted as a line in the sand for a long time, with the market not having traded below it since April last year.
Support to respect:
- Current support is just above the prior December support area in the low 9,600s.
- A move back down to 9,620 is still plausible if the bounce fails.
Upside that would change the picture:
- Look for an end-of-day close through 9,930. That’s the initial trigger because it was previous resistance (November and December).
- If that closes convincingly, the next area becomes 10,082 (old March support).
- Near-term stance: don’t chase “much more than that” yet. The first goal is to prove strength at 9,930.
DAX: range trading, but the “pause before a drop” risk is real
With the DAX, the recovery attempt has run into structural issues. There is still a risk of a gap-down type move toward the lower end of the current range.
Range to frame decisions:
- 23,000 area is the channel floor (below it increases risk).
- Potential downside gap risk down toward 21,300.
What momentum is suggesting:
- RSI bounced off oversold around 30 and hasn’t been that low since April.
- However, today’s price action looks more like a pause before a move down rather than the start of a sustained rally.
Bottom line: treat this like a range until proven otherwise. Don’t assume the bounce is “done” just because RSI escaped oversold.
Dow Jones: helped by Iran-strike headlines, but resistance is still waiting
The Dow improved after late news circulating around potential stopping of strikes related to Iran. That gave the market a cleaner rebound than some other risk assets.
Key levels:
- Previous November support around 45,700 is being watched closely. This level previously produced a bear-trap rebound.
- Potential upside reference is the last peak around 47,400.
The “don’t get carried away” resistance:
- The 200-day moving average sits near 46,500 and is acting as resistance.
- If you’re cautious, the market needs an end-of-day close through the 200-day moving average before you assume higher prices are durable.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Ethereum show healthier technical action
Bitcoin: above 50-day is constructive, but the range is still tight
Bitcoin is “one thing or another” right now, which is trader-speak for: it is neither cleanly bullish nor decisively bearish.
Structure:
- Bitcoin is trading around either side of the 50-day line at about 69,000.
- The market is also within a falling trend channel. The best-case top of that channel is around 77,000 by the end of next month.
Downside case:
- Worst case looks like a test of the March support around 65,000.
Momentum note: RSI has moved back above neutral, around 51. That supports the idea that 65,000 is the “defined stress point”, not something more catastrophic.
Ethereum: bounce on the 50-day, resistance likely ahead
Ethereum has managed to bounce on the 50-day moving average at approximately 2,043.
Targets to watch:
- Above 2,043, the next resistance is in the direction of 2,400 over coming days and weeks.
RSI caution: RSI is not giving a strong bullish impulse (it keeps sliding), but the price action remains positive while Ethereum is above the 50-day line.
Additional positive: There is an uptrend line that has been tested, which helps the bullish case compared with pure “RSI only” thinking.
Gold: sharp bounce, but the key is end-of-day confirmation
Gold has been interesting because it played around the 200-day line with a low around 4,098 (just above or just below it depending on the print). That produced a very sharp bounce.
Immediate decision point:
- The old February support is around 4,404.
- You want end-of-day closes above 4,404 to unlock a move back toward the 50-day moving average near 4,971.
If closes fail:
- The next “wait and see” approach is a retest of the 200-day moving average.
- RSI is around 27, which is very oversold, meaning it is likely to be difficult and surprising if price revisits the 200-day without fresh momentum.
WTI Crude oil: trapped in a band, watch the 92 level closely
Crude remains the most compelling macro chart, but it is not offering an easy directional trade. Previously, the “call” band was described as 92 to 102. There was a “rugpull” move that confirmed how quickly things can change.
Current working range:
- Resistance is around 92.
- The range to frame risk is roughly 84 to 92.
If 92 breaks:
- An end-of-day close through 92 would be difficult, but if achieved it could open a move toward 98 to 102 again.
Important context: A bull flag that should have continued higher has been punctured. That usually implies “not yet” for the upside until price proves otherwise.
Bulletin Board Stocks
Altona Rare Earths: Altona has printed an island reversal pattern: a gap down followed by a gap up the next day. Look for a retest around 2.9p while price stays above the top of the gap (noted as the 2.9p area). RSI around 50 rebounded as well, which supports the idea that selling pressure is easing.
Capricorn Energy: Capricorn is trying to bounce above a rising 50-day line. The chart also suggests it has already broken out of a falling trend channel. Top of the rising trend channel toward the £3 area by end of next month. Key “stay-in-the-game” level is the 50-day moving average near 253p.
Cizzle Biotechnology: “living up to its name” with strength. It broke above 1.95p to 1.96p and pushed toward the top of a rising trend channel base near 3.3p. Next targets 3.3p in the near term. Best case toward 4 and 3/4p by end of next month. Ideally, hold above 2.5p (support).
Karelian Diamond: has hit an initial target around 0.95p and is now aiming higher. Look toward the old June peak around 1.5p by end of next month. Stay above 0.8p support from the latest price action.
S4 Capital: is not a stock type that would normally be a primary focus, but the chart is doing something worth respecting: it gapped through both the 50-day and 200-day lines, trading above the 50-day moving average near 22.25p. Next area toward 34p by end of next month or sooner if momentum continues.
t42 IoT: is showing follow-through on the upside. The key level was broken at around 2.88p, and the market is now pushing toward an old peak. Target Around 4.5p by end of next month. Note: The chart case is “on” as long as the move stays above the broken key level.
Tungsten West: looks like it is reviving a previous strong run. It is moving within a rising trend channel with support around the 50-day line near 27p. Target: The top of that channel near 44p by end of next month, with the trade thesis supported by remaining above 27p.
Tertiary Minerals: has also revived within a rising trend channel, pushing through the 50-day line around 0.09p. Targets Above the 50-day, look for 0.16p by end of next month. Try to stay on the right side of 0.08p (support/invalidation reference).
Practical trading checklist (use this to organise your risk)
- Indices: demand clean end-of-day closes through key moving averages (50-day and 200-day) before assuming trend change.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum: keep an eye on the 50-day. For Bitcoin, being around it is important; for Ethereum, holding above it is the bullish anchor.
- Gold: confirmation matters. Use end-of-day closes above 4,404 as the gate to the move toward 4,971.
- WTI crude: treat it as a momentum trade within the band unless it can convincingly close above 92.
- Small caps: prefer charts with a clear stop level, such as “broken resistance becoming support” or being above/below a moving average or trend line.
Final thought: selective strength is the signal
Big indices are in a “prove it” phase: they need end-of-day confirmations, and structural risks remain as moving averages turn and trend channels wobble. Crypto and a handful of small caps look more like they are offering actual technical follow-through.
If you’re trading or investing this kind of environment, the edge often comes from respecting the moving averages, using clearly defined levels, and sizing decisions around where the chart thesis is either validated or invalidated.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
