Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, SpaceX, Energy Green Transition, EnergyPathways, Ferro Alloy, GCM, Georgina, Great Western, IMC, Sabien, Sintana, Total Graphite, Zenith.
There is still plenty of scope for buy-on-dips trading across the major indices, commodities and selected smaller shares, but the key is to respect the support levels. Several charts are testing important moving averages or trend-channel boundaries, so this is a market where levels matter more than headlines.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: Rising Channel Support Comes Into Play
The FTSE 100 remains within its rising trend channel from March, with the support line now around 10,680. The top of the channel remains near 11,000.
The important change is that the index is now approaching the floor of that channel. Any weakness towards 10,680 may therefore offer a potential buying opportunity, with 11,000 remaining the upside objective.
Initial resistance is around 10,820, which marks broken support from earlier in the month. Above that area, the market has room to revisit the upper boundary of the channel.
DAX: A Slightly Uncomfortable Gap Down
The DAX has finally pulled away from the top of its rising trend channel from March, which was around 26,500. The immediate hope is that the market stays on the right side of 26,000.
If 26,000 gives way decisively, the next key level is likely to be 25,600, representing late-July resistance and an earlier support zone.
The gap down is not ideal, even though the market has attempted a bounce. For now, it looks more like a rug pull than a properly constructive recovery. Holding above 26,000 would make the technical picture much more comfortable.
Dow Jones: Still a Buy-on-Dips Setup
The Dow has continued its pullback and slipped below 53,600, the top of an August gap. While it remains below that level, the next support to monitor is 53,300, the floor of the August gap.
The worst-case support zone is around 52,300, where the rising channel from April meets the 50-day moving average.
For the moment, 53,300 is the favoured dip-buying area. With the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, still in the mid-50s, this remains more of a buy-on-dips market than a major bearish breakdown.
Bitcoin and Ethereum: Slow Progress, But Key Levels Are Clear
Bitcoin Needs to Break $65,000
Bitcoin produced better price action, but it needs follow-through. The key resistance is $65,000, a descending resistance line in place since October.
Recent support sits near the rising 50-day moving average at $63,700, with a broader support area around $62,000. As long as the price remains above the 50-day line, the structure is not too bad.
A proper break above $65,000 would open the way towards the 200-day moving average near $69,000. Even then, Bitcoin would still need to overcome the broader downtrend that has been in force since early November.
Ethereum Is Hovering Above Its 50-Day Average
Ethereum remains a two-steps-forward, two-steps-back market, but it is holding above its rising 50-day moving average at around $1,848.
That gives the market a reasonable chance of reaching the 200-day moving average around $2,004 over the next two to four weeks. It has become a slow market, but repeated RSI rebounds around the neutral 50 level suggest that the eventual resolution should be higher.
Gold: Bull Flag and Rising Moving Averages
Gold had a good session before losing a little momentum, but the underlying chart remains constructive. The price appears to be forming a bull flag above a rising 50-day moving average.
Recent support is around 4,330. There may be another dip towards that area before the next move higher, but the broader setup still favours buying weakness.
Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are rising. That is effectively the type of constructive backdrop associated with a golden cross setup. The initial upside target is the 200-day average around 4,570.
WTI Crude Oil: Upper-$80 Targets While $80 Holds
WTI crude oil has improved on the back of more belligerent political noise, although not as much as some might have expected. The technical positive is that the price has broken recent resistance near $84.60.
Above that level, the market can target a gap towards $87.80, followed by resistance around $89. The focus is therefore on the upper-$80 region.
On the downside, crude ideally needs to remain above the $80 handle. The 50-day moving average near $78.58 is the fallback level, but the preferred scenario remains a market holding above $80 and working higher.
SpaceX: The 50-Day Moving Average Is the Battleground
SpaceX is battling around its 50-day moving average at 443.62. The price managed to jump through that level, making it the key feature for the next phase of trading.
Holding above the moving average would point towards the 150 zone, with the 200-day moving average near 156.81 offering the best-case target.
If the 50-day line fails to hold, a retracement into the low 130s, particularly near 130, could be the preferred buy-on-dips area. With the RSI near 57, the chart still looks more constructive than destructive.
UK Small-Cap Share Charts
- Energy Green Transition: Strong Bull Flag Structure: Energy Green Transition is looking very strong. The shares are forming a B-shaped bull flag above a rising 50-day moving average, following a sideways consolidation through much of last month. The initial target is around 12.7p. A sustained move above that level would bring the upper boundary of the rising channel from October into play, potentially near 16p by the end of next month. The support found above the rising 50-day line is a continuation signal, while the RSI rebound above 50 adds further encouragement.
- EnergyPathways: Support Above 6.3p Is Crucial: EnergyPathways has not yet delivered the major move many had anticipated, but the technical position is not without promise. Resistance through to 8p remains valid while the shares stay above 6p. A break above the 50-day moving average near 7.25p would be important, particularly because the shares have struggled to hold above that line since early June. If they do manage it, a move towards 10p or more by the end of next month becomes possible. The main positive is support above the rising 200-day moving average at 6.3p.
- Europa Oil & Gas: Golden Cross Supports a Slow-Burn Recovery: Europa Oil & Gas is a slow-burn recovery story following its latest golden cross. While the shares remain above the 50-day and 200-day moving-average area around 1.7p, the target is the top of the range and channel near 2.8p. That is the level to look for by the end of next month.
- Ferro-Alloy: A Falling Knife With Signs of a Rebound: Ferro-Alloy remains a falling knife, perhaps closer to a falling machete, so this is not one for the faint-hearted. However, there are signs that a technical rebound is underway. The minimum target is the top of the falling channel near 4.22p by month-end. A stronger recovery could reach 4.4p, with a gap fill towards 4.5p the ideal outcome over the next couple of weeks. The caveat is obvious: the company could still raise money into any strength, and that risk should not be ignored.
- GCM: Triangle Breakout Targets 14.75p: GCM has followed through after breaking resistance around 10.25p. Above that level, the target is the upper boundary of a triangle that has been developing since around this time last year. That points towards 14.75p by the end of the month. Ideally, the shares now hold above the 10p zone and the old February gap top.
- Georgina: Mid-Move Consolidation Remains Constructive: Georgina has been a strong performer, rising around fivefold over the year. The immediate task is clearing the 16p area. A decisive break would point towards 21p by the end of next month. The chart shows a healthy mid-move consolidation, supported by rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Even a dip towards recent support near 12p would likely be viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to abandon the bullish structure.
- Great Western: A Positive RNS and a Route to 5p: Great Western produced another encouraging RNS, and the chart is responding well. Above 3.5p, the target is 5p, which is the top of the rising trend channel from December. The setup is strengthened by a double bounce above RSI 50, a rising 50-day moving average and a gap higher through that average. The technical picture is looking very good indeed.
- Huddled: Recovery Above the 50-Day Average: Huddled has had a decent update following an extended bear run. The shares are back above the 50-day moving average near 0.44p. While that support holds, the target is the top of the falling trend channel from November, near 0.67p by the end of next month. The shares are still below recent resistance at 0.37p, so that level needs to be properly dealt with to avoid delaying the upside scenario.
- IMC: Oversold Reversal Could Move Quickly: IMC is back in business from a technical perspective. The shares have broken the falling channel from February, pushed through the 50-day moving average and posted a strong candle. Above 1p, the target is around 1.35p by the end of the month, possibly sooner. Given how oversold the shares became before the turnaround, the move could be relatively sharp. A gap fill around 0.82p has also added to the sense that the chart is repairing itself.
- Sabien: Market Shrugs Off a Cooler RNS: Sabien’s market response has been more positive than the wording of its latest RNS might have suggested. The shares have broken resistance at around 3.25p. The initial target is at least 4.5p. In the best-case scenario, the price could reach the 200-day moving average near 5.6p by the end of next month. That would be significant, because the shares have not properly held above the 200-day average since October.
- Sintana Energy: Accumulation Above 20p: Sintana Energy is consolidating above its 50-day moving average near 20p. The moving average now needs to turn higher to reinforce the recovery. There has been a double and triple bounce around RSI 50, suggesting positive accumulation rather than distribution. While the shares remain above 20p, the top of the channel near 27p is the target for the end of next month.
- Total Graphite: Break 0.84p Before Getting Excited: Total Graphite has bullish divergence in place, with lower price lows but a higher RSI trace. That is encouraging, but the chart still needs confirmation. The top of the falling channel is around 0.84p. An end-of-day close above that level would signal a potential move towards the gap top just above 1p. More cautious traders may prefer to wait for the RSI to recover above the neutral 50 level, rather than acting while it remains around 41.
- Zenith Energy: Good News Finally Produced a Response: Zenith Energy finally responded to positive news with a strong session, opening near the low and closing near the high. The shares have eased back slightly since then, but the technical setup remains intact. If the price can stay at or near the 50-day moving average around 4.5p, the next target is the top of the recent range near 5.5p. The sharply rising 200-day moving average is another positive. Once the 50-day line catches up following the recent move, there is scope for an advance beyond 5.5p.
Levels to Keep Front of Mind
The broad message remains straightforward. The FTSE 100, Dow, gold, crude oil and several smaller shares still favour a buy-on-dips approach, provided their key moving averages and trend supports continue to hold.
Bitcoin needs $65,000, Ethereum needs to remain above its 50-day line, and the DAX needs to protect 26,000. Among the smaller shares, breakouts above clear resistance levels are the signal to look for. In this sort of market, patience around support is usually better than chasing strength after the move has already happened.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
