Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Alkemy, B90, First Class Metals, GCM, Orosur, Optibiotics, Thruvision, Tomco.
Markets are looking increasingly fragile as the prospect of an interest-rate rise collides with surging oil prices. The key question across the major indices is whether support holds, or whether recent failures at 50-day moving averages turn into a broader September sell-off.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain range-bound rather than broken, crude oil continues its relentless push higher, and a select group of smaller shares is beginning to show more encouraging technical setups.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: Fading at the 50-Day Moving Average
The FTSE 100 has done precisely what bulls did not want to see: it has faded around the 50-day moving average, currently near 10,737. That line has capped the index over the past couple of sessions, leaving the market vulnerable to a move lower.
The immediate concern is a break beneath the floor of the rising trend channel in place since March, around 10,600. If that gives way, the next downside areas are:
- 10,400, the July support zone
- 10,392, where the 200-day moving average sits
Those levels could come into play before the end of September, particularly with the market focused on the next US Federal Reserve decision. Expectations of higher rates, combined with oil pushing sharply higher, are not a particularly attractive backdrop for equities.
The RSI had already given a useful warning last week. Its extended uptrend line broke around the neutral 50 level, suggesting that momentum was deteriorating before the price action fully confirmed it.
For a recovery to take hold, the FTSE needs to get back above the 50-day average. A sustained break would bring the July resistance area near 10,850 into view.
DAX: Channel Breakdown Points to 24,700
The DAX has fallen out of its rising trend channel from March, with the breakdown occurring around 25,300. The next obvious destination is the combination of July support and the 200-day moving average near 24,700.
The downside case remains valid while the index trades below its falling 50-day moving average at approximately 25,700. That average is now the first meaningful resistance on any bounce.
The daily chart also has the look of an August bull trap and double top. The RSI is heading towards oversold territory but has not reached it yet. With roughly five RSI points still to go before the 30 level, there may be another day or two, or more, of downside before the market becomes technically stretched.
Dow: Interest-Rate and AI Fears Weigh on the Market
The Dow is dealing with a familiar combination of concerns: rate-hike expectations and renewed anxiety around AI-related valuations. With market pricing suggesting a strong chance of a hike, the index has slipped below its 50-day moving average at just under 53,000.
The next issue is the floor of the channel running from April, near 52,100. A break there could expose:
- 51,500, July support
- 51,300, the broader post-June support area
The bearish view remains in place while the 50-day average acts as resistance, and particularly while August resistance around 53,400 continues to block upside progress.
Interest-rate decisions can alter market sentiment very quickly. For the latest policy announcements and monetary-policy materials, refer to the Federal Reserve’s official FOMC calendar.
Bitcoin: A Slow Range, but the Bigger Upside Case Survives
Bitcoin has been steady rather than exciting, moving within a relatively narrow range between support around $75,000 and resistance near $82,000.
A clean break above $82,000 would be the signal for a potential move towards $94,000, perhaps by the end of next month given the slow pace of the current consolidation.
The broader constructive view remains intact while Bitcoin stays above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are sitting in the low-$70,000 area. As long as those supports remain in place, a target above $90,000 is still on the table.
Ethereum: Waiting for a Break from the 2,350 to 2,580 Range
Ethereum led Bitcoin higher, which was a slightly unusual sequence, but it has since settled into its own trading range. The key boundaries are:
- $2,350 support
- $2,580 resistance
A breakout above the range would point towards the top of the rising channel from February, around $2,900. That was initially a target for the end of September, although the slow trading action means the end of next month may now be more realistic.
The bearish alternative is a sharp failure through the 50-day moving average at $2,208. That would be the favoured downside destination if the market suffers a rug pull.
Gold: The 50-Day Average Is the Critical Line
Gold is trying to establish support at the floor of its rising channel from June. Channel floors are never exact levels, so the 50-day moving average near $4,274 is the more practical level to monitor.
The market is edging below that average. An end-of-day close beneath it could trigger a retreat towards former July resistance around $4,140 in the coming days.
Momentum is not helping the bullish case. The RSI uptrend line broke last week around the 50 level and has been falling since, which continues to hint at lower prices.
Another longer-term concern would be the 200-day moving average at $4,539 changing from gently rising to flat or falling. That would be a meaningful deterioration in the overall trend picture.
WTI Crude Oil: $115 Remains the Channel Target
Crude oil has been persistently pushing higher and is now comfortably above the $100 level. The top of the rising trend channel from June is around $102, and a move above that opens the way towards the upper parallel of the channel near $115.
That would take oil back towards the highest levels seen since the Iran conflict began. It is a forceful move, and it remains technically valid while the market stays above $93, the old July resistance level.
That $93 area is the key support, or “rug”, beneath the current oil rally.
Small-Cap Share Charts
- Alkemy: A Gap Above the 50-Day Line Offers Fresh Hope: Alkemy has produced messy and volatile trading recently, but the chart is becoming more interesting. The shares have been contained within a broad range between roughly 250p and 320p. The reason to focus on the 3.20p breakout now is that the stock started the week with a gap higher through a rising 50-day moving average. If that gap holds and the shares can stay above the moving average, the next target is the projected March resistance line just below 390p. That target could be reached by the end of next month, potentially sooner. The key is whether this latest gap higher finally produces a lasting breakout rather than another bout of volatility.
- Arrow Exploration: Break Above 36p Could Accelerate the Rally: Arrow has been slower on the upside than expected, but it has now reached the top of a rising channel that began in October last year. The important level was 36p, and the shares have closed above it. That suggests a steeper upside trajectory may now be underway, with a target of 41p to 42p by the end of the month. This is the projection of a January resistance line. The setup remains attractive while the shares hold above the recent gap area around 32p.
- First Class Metals: Holding the 50-Day Average Keeps 4.4p in Play: First Class Metals has been volatile, although it gave supporters plenty to cheer about last month before pulling back to the 50-day moving average. As long as the shares hold above, or at least do not decisively lose, the 50-day line at 2.7p, the focus remains on another move towards the top of the channel and the top of the range near 4.4p. That remains a possible target for next month or even sooner.
- GCM Resources: A Consolidation Before a Possible Move to 25p: GCM has been one of the better recent performers. The chart is volatile, but the current price action looks like a mid-move consolidation rather than a completed rally. Provided the shares remain above the prior target area near 14.6p, the next potential objective is the October resistance projection around 25p. That is a target for the end of next month, assuming the consolidation resolves to the upside.
- Orosur Mining: A Falling Wedge Offers a Route Back: Orosur continues to disappoint. Despite everything that has happened around the company, the share price broke its earlier support line and has fallen back into a one-year support zone dating from summer 2025. It is difficult to make a strong near-term bullish case, but there is a possible falling-wedge formation developing. The share price breaking above the 50-day moving average at 15.5p. If those conditions are met, an initial target would be around 21p, where the 200-day moving average is likely to provide the next test. The timing would be the end of next month at the latest.
- OptiBiotix: Above the 200-Day Average for the First Time in Over a Year: OptiBiotix has not featured for a while, but the chart has delivered a significant development. The shares have pushed above the 200-day moving average for the first time in more than a year. That is a meaningful technical improvement and suggests that the bullish argument may be back in business. The target is the top of the rising channel from the start of the year, around 9.3p. That could be a November objective, although it may be achievable by the end of next month if momentum builds. The essential condition is holding above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages around 6p.
- Thruvision: Above 2.4p, the Focus Is Still on 5p: Thruvision has been another notable recent riser, helped by its celebrity backing. Technically, the important point is that the shares remain above former resistance at 2.4p. While that level holds, the main resistance target remains 5p, with the end of next month as the working timeframe.
- TomCo Energy: Strong Candles Point to a Re-Rating: TomCo has pushed through its 200-day moving average, with the next attraction being a sizeable gap up towards the red resistance line near 0.055p. The strength of the recent candles is notable. Several sessions have opened near their lows and closed near their highs, which is the sort of action that can indicate a re-rating is underway. The target is 0.055p by the end of next month, and ideally by the end of this month. The bullish case remains intact while the shares stay above the 200-day moving average around 0.04p.
The Levels That Matter Most
The broad market picture is currently defined by fading momentum and pressure beneath key moving averages. For the FTSE, DAX and Dow, the path of least resistance looks lower unless those averages are reclaimed quickly.
Bitcoin and Ethereum remain constructive but need range breakouts to restart their upside moves. Gold needs to recover its 50-day average, while crude oil remains one of the clearest upside charts as long as $93 holds.
Among the smaller shares, the more constructive setups are in Alkemy, B90, First Class Metals, GCM, OptiBiotix, Thruvision and TomCo. Orosur remains a recovery situation rather than a confirmed turnaround.
Moving averages and RSI are useful tools for judging trend and momentum, but no chart level is guaranteed to hold. For a useful primer on the mechanics of the Relative Strength Index, it is worth understanding why the 30, 50 and 70 zones often matter to technical traders.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
